[temeculaguy]

Great link Kev. I have never heard of Wilbur until your link and quite frankly I think the guy is incredibly bright once you get past the dead pan delivery. The guy has brass ones, getting into the mortgage market now because someone will need to finance all those foreclosures next year is really cutting against the grain but he didn’t get where he is by being a nut job and his opinion of securitization was spot on. I realize he is just picking over the bones of the failed companies but homeboy has s%$# together in his analysis. I like the thing he said about it taking people a while to fully understand that things are different now, I always knew there were really rich and powerful people who think like piggintonians.

[temeculaguy]

Great link Kev. I have never heard of Wilbur until your link and quite frankly I think the guy is incredibly bright once you get past the dead pan delivery. The guy has brass ones, getting into the mortgage market now because someone will need to finance all those foreclosures next year is really cutting against the grain but he didn’t get where he is by being a nut job and his opinion of securitization was spot on. I realize he is just picking over the bones of the failed companies but homeboy has s%$# together in his analysis. I like the thing he said about it taking people a while to fully understand that things are different now, I always knew there were really rich and powerful people who think like piggintonians.

[temeculaguy]

Great link Kev. I have never heard of Wilbur until your link and quite frankly I think the guy is incredibly bright once you get past the dead pan delivery. The guy has brass ones, getting into the mortgage market now because someone will need to finance all those foreclosures next year is really cutting against the grain but he didn’t get where he is by being a nut job and his opinion of securitization was spot on. I realize he is just picking over the bones of the failed companies but homeboy has s%$# together in his analysis. I like the thing he said about it taking people a while to fully understand that things are different now, I always knew there were really rich and powerful people who think like piggintonians.

[temeculaguy]

The only comp on that street I found in 5 minutes of research was for about that price but it was in June so it sold probably in March, it was a different world then. There is one on that street at the end of the cul de sac for a mil but it has a pool sized lot (no pics on redfin so maybe it has a pool) that this repo lacks and it is nearing the 50 d.o.m. mark., That zip code has only 30 nots and 56 nods, hardly the number I would think 4-s would be at by now, maybe we are wrong, maybe all the 4-s buyers were move ups with lots of cash down and conventional financing, I just don’t believe it but I am wrong a lot. Lets give it three months and see how it holds up since the jumbo was placed on the endangered species list, I’m guessing it’s gonna take a hit. I like what the others have said, 700k range, this is by no means the average house or the average neighborhood, it’s never going to 400k, even in a crash this is not blue collar housing or first time buyer housing so it will not settle in blue collar or first time buyer territory.

[temeculaguy]

The only comp on that street I found in 5 minutes of research was for about that price but it was in June so it sold probably in March, it was a different world then. There is one on that street at the end of the cul de sac for a mil but it has a pool sized lot (no pics on redfin so maybe it has a pool) that this repo lacks and it is nearing the 50 d.o.m. mark., That zip code has only 30 nots and 56 nods, hardly the number I would think 4-s would be at by now, maybe we are wrong, maybe all the 4-s buyers were move ups with lots of cash down and conventional financing, I just don’t believe it but I am wrong a lot. Lets give it three months and see how it holds up since the jumbo was placed on the endangered species list, I’m guessing it’s gonna take a hit. I like what the others have said, 700k range, this is by no means the average house or the average neighborhood, it’s never going to 400k, even in a crash this is not blue collar housing or first time buyer housing so it will not settle in blue collar or first time buyer territory.

[temeculaguy]

The only comp on that street I found in 5 minutes of research was for about that price but it was in June so it sold probably in March, it was a different world then. There is one on that street at the end of the cul de sac for a mil but it has a pool sized lot (no pics on redfin so maybe it has a pool) that this repo lacks and it is nearing the 50 d.o.m. mark., That zip code has only 30 nots and 56 nods, hardly the number I would think 4-s would be at by now, maybe we are wrong, maybe all the 4-s buyers were move ups with lots of cash down and conventional financing, I just don’t believe it but I am wrong a lot. Lets give it three months and see how it holds up since the jumbo was placed on the endangered species list, I’m guessing it’s gonna take a hit. I like what the others have said, 700k range, this is by no means the average house or the average neighborhood, it’s never going to 400k, even in a crash this is not blue collar housing or first time buyer housing so it will not settle in blue collar or first time buyer territory.

[temeculaguy]

Chris is right on more than a few levels. Ben used his wd-40 can to keep the engine from seizing, he didn’t save the world. Even if there was a 100 pt basis drop of the fed funds rate (read interest rate drops a full percentage) it will not start the housing craziness again and will not keep housing prices from falling. Even if fannie and freddie raise the conforming limits, we will not have a 2005 flashback. The game has changed permanently back once again, the institutions that give out money have realized that giving money to people without verifying if they can pay it back, or setting them up with a payment that will jump beyond their means or letting them in without any skin (o down) doesn’t work for the lender. It can work in certain circumstances but as the dominant loan product, it will come back to bite the lender. The secondary market has lost their appetite for the higher risk product probably for the rest of this cycle until the next genration is in place or the memory of what crow tastes like fades from this one. The economy will not tank but the housing market in So Cal will still return to normal levels on schedule, regardless of what the interest rates are. This can all be explained using my friend Bob and his dating exploits. Bob hit a streak where he was quite successful picking up girls to the point that he stopped asking too many questions and stopped using personal protection. Life was good for a while until Bob caught something, fortunaltely for Bob it was curable but it frightened Bob and he changed his ways. Initially he stopped going out and swore off his hedonist lifestyle. Now Bob is back to his old ways, wiser and more cautious, he asks questions and is never without protection. The lenders will end up like Bob, they will get their liquidity and interest rates back but they won’t look at customers the same, the scare will bring back balance. Didn’t think I could make a comparative argument using STD’s and the financial markets, HAH.

[temeculaguy]

Chris is right on more than a few levels. Ben used his wd-40 can to keep the engine from seizing, he didn’t save the world. Even if there was a 100 pt basis drop of the fed funds rate (read interest rate drops a full percentage) it will not start the housing craziness again and will not keep housing prices from falling. Even if fannie and freddie raise the conforming limits, we will not have a 2005 flashback. The game has changed permanently back once again, the institutions that give out money have realized that giving money to people without verifying if they can pay it back, or setting them up with a payment that will jump beyond their means or letting them in without any skin (o down) doesn’t work for the lender. It can work in certain circumstances but as the dominant loan product, it will come back to bite the lender. The secondary market has lost their appetite for the higher risk product probably for the rest of this cycle until the next genration is in place or the memory of what crow tastes like fades from this one. The economy will not tank but the housing market in So Cal will still return to normal levels on schedule, regardless of what the interest rates are. This can all be explained using my friend Bob and his dating exploits. Bob hit a streak where he was quite successful picking up girls to the point that he stopped asking too many questions and stopped using personal protection. Life was good for a while until Bob caught something, fortunaltely for Bob it was curable but it frightened Bob and he changed his ways. Initially he stopped going out and swore off his hedonist lifestyle. Now Bob is back to his old ways, wiser and more cautious, he asks questions and is never without protection. The lenders will end up like Bob, they will get their liquidity and interest rates back but they won’t look at customers the same, the scare will bring back balance. Didn’t think I could make a comparative argument using STD’s and the financial markets, HAH.

[temeculaguy]

Chris is right on more than a few levels. Ben used his wd-40 can to keep the engine from seizing, he didn’t save the world. Even if there was a 100 pt basis drop of the fed funds rate (read interest rate drops a full percentage) it will not start the housing craziness again and will not keep housing prices from falling. Even if fannie and freddie raise the conforming limits, we will not have a 2005 flashback. The game has changed permanently back once again, the institutions that give out money have realized that giving money to people without verifying if they can pay it back, or setting them up with a payment that will jump beyond their means or letting them in without any skin (o down) doesn’t work for the lender. It can work in certain circumstances but as the dominant loan product, it will come back to bite the lender. The secondary market has lost their appetite for the higher risk product probably for the rest of this cycle until the next genration is in place or the memory of what crow tastes like fades from this one. The economy will not tank but the housing market in So Cal will still return to normal levels on schedule, regardless of what the interest rates are. This can all be explained using my friend Bob and his dating exploits. Bob hit a streak where he was quite successful picking up girls to the point that he stopped asking too many questions and stopped using personal protection. Life was good for a while until Bob caught something, fortunaltely for Bob it was curable but it frightened Bob and he changed his ways. Initially he stopped going out and swore off his hedonist lifestyle. Now Bob is back to his old ways, wiser and more cautious, he asks questions and is never without protection. The lenders will end up like Bob, they will get their liquidity and interest rates back but they won’t look at customers the same, the scare will bring back balance. Didn’t think I could make a comparative argument using STD’s and the financial markets, HAH.

[temeculaguy]

The math is good and that is why people buy homes when they pay 2k in rent and can buy for 400k or under, find an example and it will probably sell. That example isn’t easy to find in S.D.

When the typical 2k rental sells between 600k and 800k, you get websites like this.

I’ll riddle you one better. I am looking at rentals right now for an October move in. I can buy a place that rents for about 1700-2000 in the 300-345 range for new construction. Talk about a nail biter. I keep running the numbers and it’s a wash, wait till those fundamentals hit S.D. next year and see how short you fingernails get because I’m down to bloody nubs.

[temeculaguy]

The math is good and that is why people buy homes when they pay 2k in rent and can buy for 400k or under, find an example and it will probably sell. That example isn’t easy to find in S.D.

When the typical 2k rental sells between 600k and 800k, you get websites like this.

I’ll riddle you one better. I am looking at rentals right now for an October move in. I can buy a place that rents for about 1700-2000 in the 300-345 range for new construction. Talk about a nail biter. I keep running the numbers and it’s a wash, wait till those fundamentals hit S.D. next year and see how short you fingernails get because I’m down to bloody nubs.

[temeculaguy]

The math is good and that is why people buy homes when they pay 2k in rent and can buy for 400k or under, find an example and it will probably sell. That example isn’t easy to find in S.D.

When the typical 2k rental sells between 600k and 800k, you get websites like this.

I’ll riddle you one better. I am looking at rentals right now for an October move in. I can buy a place that rents for about 1700-2000 in the 300-345 range for new construction. Talk about a nail biter. I keep running the numbers and it’s a wash, wait till those fundamentals hit S.D. next year and see how short you fingernails get because I’m down to bloody nubs.

[temeculaguy]

Just for you Rustico I’ll clean it up. You may want to let her read a few threads before I put myself back in the box, my grandma thinks I’m hillarious.

[temeculaguy]

Just for you Rustico I’ll clean it up. You may want to let her read a few threads before I put myself back in the box, my grandma thinks I’m hillarious.

[temeculaguy]

Just for you Rustico I’ll clean it up. You may want to let her read a few threads before I put myself back in the box, my grandma thinks I’m hillarious.

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