[temeculaguy]

I hope you are right JWM but I have so little faith that that poor bastard in the heartland would even know who fannie and freddie are because they don’t sponsor a Nascar driver. I would say that congress traditionally hates California and won’t bail us out but everyones 401k is taking a hit because of it so it will probably pass. Doesn’t matter, it won’t change a thing, interest rates were low and toxic loans were plentiful when this thing started to go south, neither will save it now. It was the affordability and the shattering of the illusion that things would always go higher that killed real estate, this is CPR on a patient with no head. Raising the conforming limits won’t bring back subprime either. The band aid is coming off either way, now they have to decide if the want to rip it off or peel it slowly.

[temeculaguy]

I hope you are right JWM but I have so little faith that that poor bastard in the heartland would even know who fannie and freddie are because they don’t sponsor a Nascar driver. I would say that congress traditionally hates California and won’t bail us out but everyones 401k is taking a hit because of it so it will probably pass. Doesn’t matter, it won’t change a thing, interest rates were low and toxic loans were plentiful when this thing started to go south, neither will save it now. It was the affordability and the shattering of the illusion that things would always go higher that killed real estate, this is CPR on a patient with no head. Raising the conforming limits won’t bring back subprime either. The band aid is coming off either way, now they have to decide if the want to rip it off or peel it slowly.

[temeculaguy]

I hope you are right JWM but I have so little faith that that poor bastard in the heartland would even know who fannie and freddie are because they don’t sponsor a Nascar driver. I would say that congress traditionally hates California and won’t bail us out but everyones 401k is taking a hit because of it so it will probably pass. Doesn’t matter, it won’t change a thing, interest rates were low and toxic loans were plentiful when this thing started to go south, neither will save it now. It was the affordability and the shattering of the illusion that things would always go higher that killed real estate, this is CPR on a patient with no head. Raising the conforming limits won’t bring back subprime either. The band aid is coming off either way, now they have to decide if the want to rip it off or peel it slowly.

[temeculaguy]

I bid $100.10 a sq ft., all this talk of no loans and no buyers, when the prices get low enough I wonder how many of us there are hiding in the woodpile. We need to come up with some kind of secret button or hat color so we can identify fellow piggintonians at autions and such. That way we can make sure we don’t outbid each other because when things hit a hundred a square, I’m sure we we will start stepping away from the computer and hitting the auctions.

[temeculaguy]

I bid $100.10 a sq ft., all this talk of no loans and no buyers, when the prices get low enough I wonder how many of us there are hiding in the woodpile. We need to come up with some kind of secret button or hat color so we can identify fellow piggintonians at autions and such. That way we can make sure we don’t outbid each other because when things hit a hundred a square, I’m sure we we will start stepping away from the computer and hitting the auctions.

[temeculaguy]

I bid $100.10 a sq ft., all this talk of no loans and no buyers, when the prices get low enough I wonder how many of us there are hiding in the woodpile. We need to come up with some kind of secret button or hat color so we can identify fellow piggintonians at autions and such. That way we can make sure we don’t outbid each other because when things hit a hundred a square, I’m sure we we will start stepping away from the computer and hitting the auctions.

[temeculaguy]

I think the problem a seller and and a buyer wouldn’t go this route for a few reasons. Most sellers don’t have cash laying around, try to include that in the cost of the loan and the lender may balk and the appraisal may not come in anyway.

As a buyer I would prefer the price be lowered as opposed to the loanbought down because you lose flexibility to refi if rates go down, you pay higher taxes and you have a higher payoff if you sell.

I also think the 8.25 rate you are quoting is an exclusionary rate not the lowest available, lenders who don’t want to make loans raise their rate as opposed to shutting off the lights, the 8.25 is just another way to say “were closed.”

[temeculaguy]

I think the problem a seller and and a buyer wouldn’t go this route for a few reasons. Most sellers don’t have cash laying around, try to include that in the cost of the loan and the lender may balk and the appraisal may not come in anyway.

As a buyer I would prefer the price be lowered as opposed to the loanbought down because you lose flexibility to refi if rates go down, you pay higher taxes and you have a higher payoff if you sell.

I also think the 8.25 rate you are quoting is an exclusionary rate not the lowest available, lenders who don’t want to make loans raise their rate as opposed to shutting off the lights, the 8.25 is just another way to say “were closed.”

[temeculaguy]

I think the problem a seller and and a buyer wouldn’t go this route for a few reasons. Most sellers don’t have cash laying around, try to include that in the cost of the loan and the lender may balk and the appraisal may not come in anyway.

As a buyer I would prefer the price be lowered as opposed to the loanbought down because you lose flexibility to refi if rates go down, you pay higher taxes and you have a higher payoff if you sell.

I also think the 8.25 rate you are quoting is an exclusionary rate not the lowest available, lenders who don’t want to make loans raise their rate as opposed to shutting off the lights, the 8.25 is just another way to say “were closed.”

[temeculaguy]

The number of borrowers may shrink but the loans will still exist for the well doc’d people with decent downpayments, and yes they will pay more for a jumbo like they used to. Don’t believe the hype that there will no more loans over 417, just less of them. This will still damage the market prices, like taking 10% of the cars off the freeway and traffic get 50% better. Now as a buyer who has to pay a full point higher for a jumbo and you are comparing two houses near the jumbo mark, one might be only 30k higher but it takes your whole loan jumbo so the payment goes up significantly when comparing the two side by side, that will have an effect on the comps going the opposite way as the subprime thing did to prop up the comps by taking out the bottom of the market, I see median price taking a hit 90 days from now as a result, taking the industry’s last talking point away. We aren’t going to have to wait until 2012 for this to play out, I see the next nine to twelve months as worthy of pay per view status.

[temeculaguy]

The number of borrowers may shrink but the loans will still exist for the well doc’d people with decent downpayments, and yes they will pay more for a jumbo like they used to. Don’t believe the hype that there will no more loans over 417, just less of them. This will still damage the market prices, like taking 10% of the cars off the freeway and traffic get 50% better. Now as a buyer who has to pay a full point higher for a jumbo and you are comparing two houses near the jumbo mark, one might be only 30k higher but it takes your whole loan jumbo so the payment goes up significantly when comparing the two side by side, that will have an effect on the comps going the opposite way as the subprime thing did to prop up the comps by taking out the bottom of the market, I see median price taking a hit 90 days from now as a result, taking the industry’s last talking point away. We aren’t going to have to wait until 2012 for this to play out, I see the next nine to twelve months as worthy of pay per view status.

[temeculaguy]

The number of borrowers may shrink but the loans will still exist for the well doc’d people with decent downpayments, and yes they will pay more for a jumbo like they used to. Don’t believe the hype that there will no more loans over 417, just less of them. This will still damage the market prices, like taking 10% of the cars off the freeway and traffic get 50% better. Now as a buyer who has to pay a full point higher for a jumbo and you are comparing two houses near the jumbo mark, one might be only 30k higher but it takes your whole loan jumbo so the payment goes up significantly when comparing the two side by side, that will have an effect on the comps going the opposite way as the subprime thing did to prop up the comps by taking out the bottom of the market, I see median price taking a hit 90 days from now as a result, taking the industry’s last talking point away. We aren’t going to have to wait until 2012 for this to play out, I see the next nine to twelve months as worthy of pay per view status.

[temeculaguy]

Navydoc, you are right about the average joe with little or no interest in the market has changed their thinking but it didn’t have to come from housing blogs. In the last month it has dominated the wall street news and in many cases the national news, anyone who picks up a paper or turns on the t.v. will be mentally prepared to join that conversation no matter how busy they are. Those young doctors talk to patients all day long, they probably just hear things from their wide variety of average joe interaction or the t.v. being on in the rooms they walk into. You no longer have to seek out the info, it will find you.

[temeculaguy]

Navydoc, you are right about the average joe with little or no interest in the market has changed their thinking but it didn’t have to come from housing blogs. In the last month it has dominated the wall street news and in many cases the national news, anyone who picks up a paper or turns on the t.v. will be mentally prepared to join that conversation no matter how busy they are. Those young doctors talk to patients all day long, they probably just hear things from their wide variety of average joe interaction or the t.v. being on in the rooms they walk into. You no longer have to seek out the info, it will find you.

[temeculaguy]

Navydoc, you are right about the average joe with little or no interest in the market has changed their thinking but it didn’t have to come from housing blogs. In the last month it has dominated the wall street news and in many cases the national news, anyone who picks up a paper or turns on the t.v. will be mentally prepared to join that conversation no matter how busy they are. Those young doctors talk to patients all day long, they probably just hear things from their wide variety of average joe interaction or the t.v. being on in the rooms they walk into. You no longer have to seek out the info, it will find you.

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