[stockstradr]

So who actualy walked-the-talk in this thread and bought OIL stocks?

This initial thread was launched with pretty good timing. Soon after this thread when oil fell below $42, it has climbed since off those lows.

Oil stocks are up 15% to 35% off that low, just in the last week. Good gains! PBR has been a big winner so far, up 35%.

The Million Dollar question is: “Will OPEC drive oil prices from here up above $50/bbl, or $75/bbl and manage to keep oil at those prices or above?”

Or will continued demand-destruction overpower the cuts in supply, sending oil even LOWER, despite OPEC’s planned cuts?

My view is that those who have been burned are those who UNDERESTIMATED how bad this economic downturn will get.

I’m inclined to think oil will move up (on anticipation) ahead of the OPEC cut and then after the cut it will sell off again, because even another 2 Million bbl/day production cut won’t save oil from this continued demand destruction.

There is another temporary demand side effect that won’t last.

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

And people have also talked about a potential supply-side risk: cheating of OPEC members whose government budgets are in big trouble if they reduce output per OPEC quotas (given their oil revenues already way down with price having falling to $43/bbl). So lots of talk of actual world oil supply not pulling back in lock step with OPEC agreed production cuts.

[stockstradr]

So who actualy walked-the-talk in this thread and bought OIL stocks?

This initial thread was launched with pretty good timing. Soon after this thread when oil fell below $42, it has climbed since off those lows.

Oil stocks are up 15% to 35% off that low, just in the last week. Good gains! PBR has been a big winner so far, up 35%.

The Million Dollar question is: “Will OPEC drive oil prices from here up above $50/bbl, or $75/bbl and manage to keep oil at those prices or above?”

Or will continued demand-destruction overpower the cuts in supply, sending oil even LOWER, despite OPEC’s planned cuts?

My view is that those who have been burned are those who UNDERESTIMATED how bad this economic downturn will get.

I’m inclined to think oil will move up (on anticipation) ahead of the OPEC cut and then after the cut it will sell off again, because even another 2 Million bbl/day production cut won’t save oil from this continued demand destruction.

There is another temporary demand side effect that won’t last.

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

And people have also talked about a potential supply-side risk: cheating of OPEC members whose government budgets are in big trouble if they reduce output per OPEC quotas (given their oil revenues already way down with price having falling to $43/bbl). So lots of talk of actual world oil supply not pulling back in lock step with OPEC agreed production cuts.

[stockstradr]

So who actualy walked-the-talk in this thread and bought OIL stocks?

This initial thread was launched with pretty good timing. Soon after this thread when oil fell below $42, it has climbed since off those lows.

Oil stocks are up 15% to 35% off that low, just in the last week. Good gains! PBR has been a big winner so far, up 35%.

The Million Dollar question is: “Will OPEC drive oil prices from here up above $50/bbl, or $75/bbl and manage to keep oil at those prices or above?”

Or will continued demand-destruction overpower the cuts in supply, sending oil even LOWER, despite OPEC’s planned cuts?

My view is that those who have been burned are those who UNDERESTIMATED how bad this economic downturn will get.

I’m inclined to think oil will move up (on anticipation) ahead of the OPEC cut and then after the cut it will sell off again, because even another 2 Million bbl/day production cut won’t save oil from this continued demand destruction.

There is another temporary demand side effect that won’t last.

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

And people have also talked about a potential supply-side risk: cheating of OPEC members whose government budgets are in big trouble if they reduce output per OPEC quotas (given their oil revenues already way down with price having falling to $43/bbl). So lots of talk of actual world oil supply not pulling back in lock step with OPEC agreed production cuts.

[stockstradr]

Yes….

Search for Hugh Hendry inteview MP3s on FinancialContent.com

The guy runs a hedge fund, Eclectica. It is really a good interview and he talks about how he also sees a long period of ever-decreasing rate cuts. Also he talks on many topics, interview is filled with many nuggets worth your listen.

So there are strong arguments out there that it is too early to short the US short-term bills.

[stockstradr]

Yes….

Search for Hugh Hendry inteview MP3s on FinancialContent.com

The guy runs a hedge fund, Eclectica. It is really a good interview and he talks about how he also sees a long period of ever-decreasing rate cuts. Also he talks on many topics, interview is filled with many nuggets worth your listen.

So there are strong arguments out there that it is too early to short the US short-term bills.

[stockstradr]

Yes….

Search for Hugh Hendry inteview MP3s on FinancialContent.com

The guy runs a hedge fund, Eclectica. It is really a good interview and he talks about how he also sees a long period of ever-decreasing rate cuts. Also he talks on many topics, interview is filled with many nuggets worth your listen.

So there are strong arguments out there that it is too early to short the US short-term bills.

[stockstradr]

Yes….

Search for Hugh Hendry inteview MP3s on FinancialContent.com

The guy runs a hedge fund, Eclectica. It is really a good interview and he talks about how he also sees a long period of ever-decreasing rate cuts. Also he talks on many topics, interview is filled with many nuggets worth your listen.

So there are strong arguments out there that it is too early to short the US short-term bills.

[stockstradr]

Yes….

Search for Hugh Hendry inteview MP3s on FinancialContent.com

The guy runs a hedge fund, Eclectica. It is really a good interview and he talks about how he also sees a long period of ever-decreasing rate cuts. Also he talks on many topics, interview is filled with many nuggets worth your listen.

So there are strong arguments out there that it is too early to short the US short-term bills.

[stockstradr]

“futures”
?
But all my money is in 401K and ROTH. I don’t believe I can trade futures, which are distinctly different from options.

I do trade index options and equity / stock options, but for betting on the indexes, at least the leverage with the ProShares ETF’s is conveniently clear: either 1X or 2X, and now others offer the 3X. That is cut and dry. Options are not. Those ETF’s are just managed collections of shorts and option positions anyway.

My big regret about the options is that obviously I should have just bought the waay out-of-money puts ahead of the big October fall off the cliff. I knew that crash was coming (as did others on here). Many of those out-of-money puts on the indexes were initially priced at $0.10 to $0.50 and some ended up paying even 50:1 returns. Ahh, hindsight is 20:20.

So, yes, there are defnitely situations where it is more efficient to bet with market instruments OTHER than the ProShares ETF’s.

[stockstradr]

“futures”
?
But all my money is in 401K and ROTH. I don’t believe I can trade futures, which are distinctly different from options.

I do trade index options and equity / stock options, but for betting on the indexes, at least the leverage with the ProShares ETF’s is conveniently clear: either 1X or 2X, and now others offer the 3X. That is cut and dry. Options are not. Those ETF’s are just managed collections of shorts and option positions anyway.

My big regret about the options is that obviously I should have just bought the waay out-of-money puts ahead of the big October fall off the cliff. I knew that crash was coming (as did others on here). Many of those out-of-money puts on the indexes were initially priced at $0.10 to $0.50 and some ended up paying even 50:1 returns. Ahh, hindsight is 20:20.

So, yes, there are defnitely situations where it is more efficient to bet with market instruments OTHER than the ProShares ETF’s.

[stockstradr]

“futures”
?
But all my money is in 401K and ROTH. I don’t believe I can trade futures, which are distinctly different from options.

I do trade index options and equity / stock options, but for betting on the indexes, at least the leverage with the ProShares ETF’s is conveniently clear: either 1X or 2X, and now others offer the 3X. That is cut and dry. Options are not. Those ETF’s are just managed collections of shorts and option positions anyway.

My big regret about the options is that obviously I should have just bought the waay out-of-money puts ahead of the big October fall off the cliff. I knew that crash was coming (as did others on here). Many of those out-of-money puts on the indexes were initially priced at $0.10 to $0.50 and some ended up paying even 50:1 returns. Ahh, hindsight is 20:20.

So, yes, there are defnitely situations where it is more efficient to bet with market instruments OTHER than the ProShares ETF’s.

[stockstradr]

“futures”
?
But all my money is in 401K and ROTH. I don’t believe I can trade futures, which are distinctly different from options.

I do trade index options and equity / stock options, but for betting on the indexes, at least the leverage with the ProShares ETF’s is conveniently clear: either 1X or 2X, and now others offer the 3X. That is cut and dry. Options are not. Those ETF’s are just managed collections of shorts and option positions anyway.

My big regret about the options is that obviously I should have just bought the waay out-of-money puts ahead of the big October fall off the cliff. I knew that crash was coming (as did others on here). Many of those out-of-money puts on the indexes were initially priced at $0.10 to $0.50 and some ended up paying even 50:1 returns. Ahh, hindsight is 20:20.

So, yes, there are defnitely situations where it is more efficient to bet with market instruments OTHER than the ProShares ETF’s.

[stockstradr]

“futures”
?
But all my money is in 401K and ROTH. I don’t believe I can trade futures, which are distinctly different from options.

I do trade index options and equity / stock options, but for betting on the indexes, at least the leverage with the ProShares ETF’s is conveniently clear: either 1X or 2X, and now others offer the 3X. That is cut and dry. Options are not. Those ETF’s are just managed collections of shorts and option positions anyway.

My big regret about the options is that obviously I should have just bought the waay out-of-money puts ahead of the big October fall off the cliff. I knew that crash was coming (as did others on here). Many of those out-of-money puts on the indexes were initially priced at $0.10 to $0.50 and some ended up paying even 50:1 returns. Ahh, hindsight is 20:20.

So, yes, there are defnitely situations where it is more efficient to bet with market instruments OTHER than the ProShares ETF’s.

[stockstradr]

Don’t blindly pursue the “Best of the best” when it comes to high schools.

Remember that many great universities often have policy to allow in the top few percent of each high school graduating class, with no regard to how low-achieving a school is. It helps to put your smart kid into a high shool that is well-stocked with dummies, or at least stocked with a good percentage of college-bound kids who are also UNDER-achievers!

Consider Silicon Valley. Parents are getting smarter up here, and moving to high school districts with schools just “good enough” to provide reasonable (college-bound) education..yet offer a LESS-competitive academic environment (compared to say Cupertine and Palo Alto districts). That way your hard-working kids can easily place themselves into top 5% of that high school’s graduating class, securing a place in elite universities.

Do not underestimate just how difficult it is for very smart, very hard-working kids to place in top 5% in the most competitive CA high school districts. It can drive kids right into psychological breakdown (or suicide), particularly when parents have high expectations for their kids yet place them in elite schools. This is a hot topic of conservation (and strategy-plotting) for the very demanding Asian parents all over Silicon Valley and Bay Area.

[stockstradr]

Don’t blindly pursue the “Best of the best” when it comes to high schools.

Remember that many great universities often have policy to allow in the top few percent of each high school graduating class, with no regard to how low-achieving a school is. It helps to put your smart kid into a high shool that is well-stocked with dummies, or at least stocked with a good percentage of college-bound kids who are also UNDER-achievers!

Consider Silicon Valley. Parents are getting smarter up here, and moving to high school districts with schools just “good enough” to provide reasonable (college-bound) education..yet offer a LESS-competitive academic environment (compared to say Cupertine and Palo Alto districts). That way your hard-working kids can easily place themselves into top 5% of that high school’s graduating class, securing a place in elite universities.

Do not underestimate just how difficult it is for very smart, very hard-working kids to place in top 5% in the most competitive CA high school districts. It can drive kids right into psychological breakdown (or suicide), particularly when parents have high expectations for their kids yet place them in elite schools. This is a hot topic of conservation (and strategy-plotting) for the very demanding Asian parents all over Silicon Valley and Bay Area.

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