[stockstradr]

What is 1x leverage?

There ain’t no such thang. 1X is not leverage. My mistake.

I think the points by cooperthedog are very good, and this is how I learn so much on this forum.

Our education and ability to make money in the financial markets definitely progresses stage by stage. I’m at an early stage where I look towards futures as a valuable tool I need to understand, because this year I’m painfully aware of the limitations of my current toolkit. For example, I cannot trade after hours which obviously makes for huge risks when I hold lots volatility-sensitive positions overnight! I’ve been watching the futures trade after hours and thinking, “I need to learn how to trade futures, and trade them in ways that manage the risk associated with futures. That way I can also better manage the risks of events that hit the finanical markets in the after hours/overnight hours”

In a way I at least already passively use the behavior of overnight futures to help me anticipate the next day’s market. I always get up early in CA so I can check the futures before the markets open in NYC. I feel as if I’m going to the party blind, unless I have a clear picture of the index futures before the US markets open.

[stockstradr]

What is 1x leverage?

There ain’t no such thang. 1X is not leverage. My mistake.

I think the points by cooperthedog are very good, and this is how I learn so much on this forum.

Our education and ability to make money in the financial markets definitely progresses stage by stage. I’m at an early stage where I look towards futures as a valuable tool I need to understand, because this year I’m painfully aware of the limitations of my current toolkit. For example, I cannot trade after hours which obviously makes for huge risks when I hold lots volatility-sensitive positions overnight! I’ve been watching the futures trade after hours and thinking, “I need to learn how to trade futures, and trade them in ways that manage the risk associated with futures. That way I can also better manage the risks of events that hit the finanical markets in the after hours/overnight hours”

In a way I at least already passively use the behavior of overnight futures to help me anticipate the next day’s market. I always get up early in CA so I can check the futures before the markets open in NYC. I feel as if I’m going to the party blind, unless I have a clear picture of the index futures before the US markets open.

[stockstradr]

What is 1x leverage?

There ain’t no such thang. 1X is not leverage. My mistake.

I think the points by cooperthedog are very good, and this is how I learn so much on this forum.

Our education and ability to make money in the financial markets definitely progresses stage by stage. I’m at an early stage where I look towards futures as a valuable tool I need to understand, because this year I’m painfully aware of the limitations of my current toolkit. For example, I cannot trade after hours which obviously makes for huge risks when I hold lots volatility-sensitive positions overnight! I’ve been watching the futures trade after hours and thinking, “I need to learn how to trade futures, and trade them in ways that manage the risk associated with futures. That way I can also better manage the risks of events that hit the finanical markets in the after hours/overnight hours”

In a way I at least already passively use the behavior of overnight futures to help me anticipate the next day’s market. I always get up early in CA so I can check the futures before the markets open in NYC. I feel as if I’m going to the party blind, unless I have a clear picture of the index futures before the US markets open.

[stockstradr]

Why isn’t deflation or inflation a choice that government can make at will, through the magic of the many money creation tools at the government’s disposal?

You may want to read this article, portions of which seems consistent to Rich’s comment above

http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices

Frankly, I don’t have the experience in the financial industry or related degree that would allow me to analyze the accuracy/logic of that article point-by-point. I just don’t know the topic well enough

Yet, much of this opinion piece seems to ring true. The writer at least gives impression he knows the subject well.

Regarding Bernanke’s views on deflation versus inflation we have this excerpt:

Anyone who reads the written works of our Fed Chairman knows that Bernanke’s long term plan involves devaluing the dollar against gold. This is the exact opposite of most prior Fed Chairmen. He has overtly stated his intentions toward gold, many times, in various articles, speeches and treatises written before he became Fed Chairman. He often extols the virtues of former President Franklin Roosevelt’s gold revaluation/dollar devaluation, back in 1934, and credits it with saving the nation from the Great Depression. According to Bernanke, devaluation of the dollar against gold was so effective in stimulating economic activity that the stock market rose sharply in 1934, immediately thereafter. That is something that the Fed wants to see happen again.

These are the kind of articles I look for when trying to figure out how to invest next, same for these similar articles below that discuss the major economic themes and expected market inflection points that will dominate our financial markets for the next decade, and beyond.

Jim Rogers is one of the best market traders out there. He started the Quantum fund with Soros, one of the most successful hedge funds of all time. Jim is also frequently interviewed on both Bloomberg and CNCBC. Rogers, and of course Soros, are both legendary. I view Jim Rogers as a financial genius, and a true American hero (for his courage to speak the truth in very public forums about the lies and conspiracies, and idiocy of our government officials)

http://jutiagroup.com/2008/08/19/exclusive-interview-jim-rogers-predicts-bigger-financial-shocks-loom-fueling-a-malaise-that-may-last-for-years/

More Jim Rogers:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/11/jim-rogers-says-dollar-to-be-devalued.html

The great bond market crash of 2009:
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/bearslair?art_id=10150

Also this interview (search for the link to the mp3) of Hugh Hendry is great stuff:

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/11/01/hugh-hendry-of-eclectica-and-dr-francis-claessens-of-peers/

[stockstradr]

Why isn’t deflation or inflation a choice that government can make at will, through the magic of the many money creation tools at the government’s disposal?

You may want to read this article, portions of which seems consistent to Rich’s comment above

http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices

Frankly, I don’t have the experience in the financial industry or related degree that would allow me to analyze the accuracy/logic of that article point-by-point. I just don’t know the topic well enough

Yet, much of this opinion piece seems to ring true. The writer at least gives impression he knows the subject well.

Regarding Bernanke’s views on deflation versus inflation we have this excerpt:

Anyone who reads the written works of our Fed Chairman knows that Bernanke’s long term plan involves devaluing the dollar against gold. This is the exact opposite of most prior Fed Chairmen. He has overtly stated his intentions toward gold, many times, in various articles, speeches and treatises written before he became Fed Chairman. He often extols the virtues of former President Franklin Roosevelt’s gold revaluation/dollar devaluation, back in 1934, and credits it with saving the nation from the Great Depression. According to Bernanke, devaluation of the dollar against gold was so effective in stimulating economic activity that the stock market rose sharply in 1934, immediately thereafter. That is something that the Fed wants to see happen again.

These are the kind of articles I look for when trying to figure out how to invest next, same for these similar articles below that discuss the major economic themes and expected market inflection points that will dominate our financial markets for the next decade, and beyond.

Jim Rogers is one of the best market traders out there. He started the Quantum fund with Soros, one of the most successful hedge funds of all time. Jim is also frequently interviewed on both Bloomberg and CNCBC. Rogers, and of course Soros, are both legendary. I view Jim Rogers as a financial genius, and a true American hero (for his courage to speak the truth in very public forums about the lies and conspiracies, and idiocy of our government officials)

http://jutiagroup.com/2008/08/19/exclusive-interview-jim-rogers-predicts-bigger-financial-shocks-loom-fueling-a-malaise-that-may-last-for-years/

More Jim Rogers:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/11/jim-rogers-says-dollar-to-be-devalued.html

The great bond market crash of 2009:
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/bearslair?art_id=10150

Also this interview (search for the link to the mp3) of Hugh Hendry is great stuff:

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/11/01/hugh-hendry-of-eclectica-and-dr-francis-claessens-of-peers/

[stockstradr]

Why isn’t deflation or inflation a choice that government can make at will, through the magic of the many money creation tools at the government’s disposal?

You may want to read this article, portions of which seems consistent to Rich’s comment above

http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices

Frankly, I don’t have the experience in the financial industry or related degree that would allow me to analyze the accuracy/logic of that article point-by-point. I just don’t know the topic well enough

Yet, much of this opinion piece seems to ring true. The writer at least gives impression he knows the subject well.

Regarding Bernanke’s views on deflation versus inflation we have this excerpt:

Anyone who reads the written works of our Fed Chairman knows that Bernanke’s long term plan involves devaluing the dollar against gold. This is the exact opposite of most prior Fed Chairmen. He has overtly stated his intentions toward gold, many times, in various articles, speeches and treatises written before he became Fed Chairman. He often extols the virtues of former President Franklin Roosevelt’s gold revaluation/dollar devaluation, back in 1934, and credits it with saving the nation from the Great Depression. According to Bernanke, devaluation of the dollar against gold was so effective in stimulating economic activity that the stock market rose sharply in 1934, immediately thereafter. That is something that the Fed wants to see happen again.

These are the kind of articles I look for when trying to figure out how to invest next, same for these similar articles below that discuss the major economic themes and expected market inflection points that will dominate our financial markets for the next decade, and beyond.

Jim Rogers is one of the best market traders out there. He started the Quantum fund with Soros, one of the most successful hedge funds of all time. Jim is also frequently interviewed on both Bloomberg and CNCBC. Rogers, and of course Soros, are both legendary. I view Jim Rogers as a financial genius, and a true American hero (for his courage to speak the truth in very public forums about the lies and conspiracies, and idiocy of our government officials)

http://jutiagroup.com/2008/08/19/exclusive-interview-jim-rogers-predicts-bigger-financial-shocks-loom-fueling-a-malaise-that-may-last-for-years/

More Jim Rogers:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/11/jim-rogers-says-dollar-to-be-devalued.html

The great bond market crash of 2009:
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/bearslair?art_id=10150

Also this interview (search for the link to the mp3) of Hugh Hendry is great stuff:

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/11/01/hugh-hendry-of-eclectica-and-dr-francis-claessens-of-peers/

[stockstradr]

Why isn’t deflation or inflation a choice that government can make at will, through the magic of the many money creation tools at the government’s disposal?

You may want to read this article, portions of which seems consistent to Rich’s comment above

http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices

Frankly, I don’t have the experience in the financial industry or related degree that would allow me to analyze the accuracy/logic of that article point-by-point. I just don’t know the topic well enough

Yet, much of this opinion piece seems to ring true. The writer at least gives impression he knows the subject well.

Regarding Bernanke’s views on deflation versus inflation we have this excerpt:

Anyone who reads the written works of our Fed Chairman knows that Bernanke’s long term plan involves devaluing the dollar against gold. This is the exact opposite of most prior Fed Chairmen. He has overtly stated his intentions toward gold, many times, in various articles, speeches and treatises written before he became Fed Chairman. He often extols the virtues of former President Franklin Roosevelt’s gold revaluation/dollar devaluation, back in 1934, and credits it with saving the nation from the Great Depression. According to Bernanke, devaluation of the dollar against gold was so effective in stimulating economic activity that the stock market rose sharply in 1934, immediately thereafter. That is something that the Fed wants to see happen again.

These are the kind of articles I look for when trying to figure out how to invest next, same for these similar articles below that discuss the major economic themes and expected market inflection points that will dominate our financial markets for the next decade, and beyond.

Jim Rogers is one of the best market traders out there. He started the Quantum fund with Soros, one of the most successful hedge funds of all time. Jim is also frequently interviewed on both Bloomberg and CNCBC. Rogers, and of course Soros, are both legendary. I view Jim Rogers as a financial genius, and a true American hero (for his courage to speak the truth in very public forums about the lies and conspiracies, and idiocy of our government officials)

http://jutiagroup.com/2008/08/19/exclusive-interview-jim-rogers-predicts-bigger-financial-shocks-loom-fueling-a-malaise-that-may-last-for-years/

More Jim Rogers:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/11/jim-rogers-says-dollar-to-be-devalued.html

The great bond market crash of 2009:
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/bearslair?art_id=10150

Also this interview (search for the link to the mp3) of Hugh Hendry is great stuff:

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/11/01/hugh-hendry-of-eclectica-and-dr-francis-claessens-of-peers/

[stockstradr]

Why isn’t deflation or inflation a choice that government can make at will, through the magic of the many money creation tools at the government’s disposal?

You may want to read this article, portions of which seems consistent to Rich’s comment above

http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices

Frankly, I don’t have the experience in the financial industry or related degree that would allow me to analyze the accuracy/logic of that article point-by-point. I just don’t know the topic well enough

Yet, much of this opinion piece seems to ring true. The writer at least gives impression he knows the subject well.

Regarding Bernanke’s views on deflation versus inflation we have this excerpt:

Anyone who reads the written works of our Fed Chairman knows that Bernanke’s long term plan involves devaluing the dollar against gold. This is the exact opposite of most prior Fed Chairmen. He has overtly stated his intentions toward gold, many times, in various articles, speeches and treatises written before he became Fed Chairman. He often extols the virtues of former President Franklin Roosevelt’s gold revaluation/dollar devaluation, back in 1934, and credits it with saving the nation from the Great Depression. According to Bernanke, devaluation of the dollar against gold was so effective in stimulating economic activity that the stock market rose sharply in 1934, immediately thereafter. That is something that the Fed wants to see happen again.

These are the kind of articles I look for when trying to figure out how to invest next, same for these similar articles below that discuss the major economic themes and expected market inflection points that will dominate our financial markets for the next decade, and beyond.

Jim Rogers is one of the best market traders out there. He started the Quantum fund with Soros, one of the most successful hedge funds of all time. Jim is also frequently interviewed on both Bloomberg and CNCBC. Rogers, and of course Soros, are both legendary. I view Jim Rogers as a financial genius, and a true American hero (for his courage to speak the truth in very public forums about the lies and conspiracies, and idiocy of our government officials)

http://jutiagroup.com/2008/08/19/exclusive-interview-jim-rogers-predicts-bigger-financial-shocks-loom-fueling-a-malaise-that-may-last-for-years/

More Jim Rogers:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/11/jim-rogers-says-dollar-to-be-devalued.html

The great bond market crash of 2009:
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/bearslair?art_id=10150

Also this interview (search for the link to the mp3) of Hugh Hendry is great stuff:

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/11/01/hugh-hendry-of-eclectica-and-dr-francis-claessens-of-peers/

[stockstradr]

Yup.

Nothing like the romance of a decade-long crushing deflationary period, that sucks the life out of your economy and your country’s soul.

When did their stock market hit its highs?

Oh well, we can probably blame it all on their bad Karma:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_war_crimes

It sure is good America has such great Karma built up with all our good deeds, yeah, sure. We brought “democracy” to all those Afghanis and Iraqis!

*cough*
*cough*

[stockstradr]

Yup.

Nothing like the romance of a decade-long crushing deflationary period, that sucks the life out of your economy and your country’s soul.

When did their stock market hit its highs?

Oh well, we can probably blame it all on their bad Karma:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_war_crimes

It sure is good America has such great Karma built up with all our good deeds, yeah, sure. We brought “democracy” to all those Afghanis and Iraqis!

*cough*
*cough*

[stockstradr]

Yup.

Nothing like the romance of a decade-long crushing deflationary period, that sucks the life out of your economy and your country’s soul.

When did their stock market hit its highs?

Oh well, we can probably blame it all on their bad Karma:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_war_crimes

It sure is good America has such great Karma built up with all our good deeds, yeah, sure. We brought “democracy” to all those Afghanis and Iraqis!

*cough*
*cough*

[stockstradr]

Yup.

Nothing like the romance of a decade-long crushing deflationary period, that sucks the life out of your economy and your country’s soul.

When did their stock market hit its highs?

Oh well, we can probably blame it all on their bad Karma:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_war_crimes

It sure is good America has such great Karma built up with all our good deeds, yeah, sure. We brought “democracy” to all those Afghanis and Iraqis!

*cough*
*cough*

[stockstradr]

Yup.

Nothing like the romance of a decade-long crushing deflationary period, that sucks the life out of your economy and your country’s soul.

When did their stock market hit its highs?

Oh well, we can probably blame it all on their bad Karma:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_war_crimes

It sure is good America has such great Karma built up with all our good deeds, yeah, sure. We brought “democracy” to all those Afghanis and Iraqis!

*cough*
*cough*

[stockstradr]

So who actualy walked-the-talk in this thread and bought OIL stocks?

This initial thread was launched with pretty good timing. Soon after this thread when oil fell below $42, it has climbed since off those lows.

Oil stocks are up 15% to 35% off that low, just in the last week. Good gains! PBR has been a big winner so far, up 35%.

The Million Dollar question is: “Will OPEC drive oil prices from here up above $50/bbl, or $75/bbl and manage to keep oil at those prices or above?”

Or will continued demand-destruction overpower the cuts in supply, sending oil even LOWER, despite OPEC’s planned cuts?

My view is that those who have been burned are those who UNDERESTIMATED how bad this economic downturn will get.

I’m inclined to think oil will move up (on anticipation) ahead of the OPEC cut and then after the cut it will sell off again, because even another 2 Million bbl/day production cut won’t save oil from this continued demand destruction.

There is another temporary demand side effect that won’t last.

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

And people have also talked about a potential supply-side risk: cheating of OPEC members whose government budgets are in big trouble if they reduce output per OPEC quotas (given their oil revenues already way down with price having falling to $43/bbl). So lots of talk of actual world oil supply not pulling back in lock step with OPEC agreed production cuts.

[stockstradr]

So who actualy walked-the-talk in this thread and bought OIL stocks?

This initial thread was launched with pretty good timing. Soon after this thread when oil fell below $42, it has climbed since off those lows.

Oil stocks are up 15% to 35% off that low, just in the last week. Good gains! PBR has been a big winner so far, up 35%.

The Million Dollar question is: “Will OPEC drive oil prices from here up above $50/bbl, or $75/bbl and manage to keep oil at those prices or above?”

Or will continued demand-destruction overpower the cuts in supply, sending oil even LOWER, despite OPEC’s planned cuts?

My view is that those who have been burned are those who UNDERESTIMATED how bad this economic downturn will get.

I’m inclined to think oil will move up (on anticipation) ahead of the OPEC cut and then after the cut it will sell off again, because even another 2 Million bbl/day production cut won’t save oil from this continued demand destruction.

There is another temporary demand side effect that won’t last.

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

And people have also talked about a potential supply-side risk: cheating of OPEC members whose government budgets are in big trouble if they reduce output per OPEC quotas (given their oil revenues already way down with price having falling to $43/bbl). So lots of talk of actual world oil supply not pulling back in lock step with OPEC agreed production cuts.

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