[stockstradr]

So was 900 a “lower high”?
Moreover, is the “reflation” trade once again the “deflation” trade?

I cannot believe I’m going to respond to this.

Look, sure we are all guessing. You analyze the news and the markets and make your best guess.

Since Nov 12th, the S&P500 clearly had established a ceiling (on fool’s rallies) of 900, and when rallies hit 900 they sharply retreated.

Until this week, where the S&P500 didn’t pull sharply off 900, but instead traded flat, managing to stay above 880…even in the face of several bad news items this week…

So we thought this bitch was forming some kind of support at 900, to make a run on up to 1000 or 1050.

But that theory kinda got shot today when markets sliced down through 880.

Keep in mind this is all just guessing and speculation about what number this current fool’s rally will reach, to try and sqeeze a few more percent out of the rally, before we go short.

As for the overall S&P500 trend for the next six months, we need not guess about that: we KNOW it will go much lower than these levels. So one could argue it is just best to stop stalling and just get on the short side of this rally.

I will assume your “reflation” remark is about oil. Yeah, I think that OPEC will not have much success (beyond what we’ve seen in last ten days) in reflating the price of oil, meaning that I am GUESSING that *whatever* value OPEC manages to lift oil prices back up in next few weeks, it will NOT hold, and will pull back to at least $40/bbl.

But all these random guesses (and hot air) should not distract us from the Big Long-Term Themes.

Oil will be over $200/bbl within five years. Count on it. Unless the WORLD is still in economic recession five years from now, but even a die-hard pessimist like me doesn’t anticipate THAT.

The point is that these are ridiculously low prices for oil stocks. Maybe I should shut up and stop speculating about selling them over some trivial pull-back to $40/bbl that might (or might not happen) in the short-term.

So then focus on holding (for at least five years) these stocks and view any near-term pullback on oil price as a chance to double-down buying more oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

So was 900 a “lower high”?
Moreover, is the “reflation” trade once again the “deflation” trade?

I cannot believe I’m going to respond to this.

Look, sure we are all guessing. You analyze the news and the markets and make your best guess.

Since Nov 12th, the S&P500 clearly had established a ceiling (on fool’s rallies) of 900, and when rallies hit 900 they sharply retreated.

Until this week, where the S&P500 didn’t pull sharply off 900, but instead traded flat, managing to stay above 880…even in the face of several bad news items this week…

So we thought this bitch was forming some kind of support at 900, to make a run on up to 1000 or 1050.

But that theory kinda got shot today when markets sliced down through 880.

Keep in mind this is all just guessing and speculation about what number this current fool’s rally will reach, to try and sqeeze a few more percent out of the rally, before we go short.

As for the overall S&P500 trend for the next six months, we need not guess about that: we KNOW it will go much lower than these levels. So one could argue it is just best to stop stalling and just get on the short side of this rally.

I will assume your “reflation” remark is about oil. Yeah, I think that OPEC will not have much success (beyond what we’ve seen in last ten days) in reflating the price of oil, meaning that I am GUESSING that *whatever* value OPEC manages to lift oil prices back up in next few weeks, it will NOT hold, and will pull back to at least $40/bbl.

But all these random guesses (and hot air) should not distract us from the Big Long-Term Themes.

Oil will be over $200/bbl within five years. Count on it. Unless the WORLD is still in economic recession five years from now, but even a die-hard pessimist like me doesn’t anticipate THAT.

The point is that these are ridiculously low prices for oil stocks. Maybe I should shut up and stop speculating about selling them over some trivial pull-back to $40/bbl that might (or might not happen) in the short-term.

So then focus on holding (for at least five years) these stocks and view any near-term pullback on oil price as a chance to double-down buying more oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

So was 900 a “lower high”?
Moreover, is the “reflation” trade once again the “deflation” trade?

I cannot believe I’m going to respond to this.

Look, sure we are all guessing. You analyze the news and the markets and make your best guess.

Since Nov 12th, the S&P500 clearly had established a ceiling (on fool’s rallies) of 900, and when rallies hit 900 they sharply retreated.

Until this week, where the S&P500 didn’t pull sharply off 900, but instead traded flat, managing to stay above 880…even in the face of several bad news items this week…

So we thought this bitch was forming some kind of support at 900, to make a run on up to 1000 or 1050.

But that theory kinda got shot today when markets sliced down through 880.

Keep in mind this is all just guessing and speculation about what number this current fool’s rally will reach, to try and sqeeze a few more percent out of the rally, before we go short.

As for the overall S&P500 trend for the next six months, we need not guess about that: we KNOW it will go much lower than these levels. So one could argue it is just best to stop stalling and just get on the short side of this rally.

I will assume your “reflation” remark is about oil. Yeah, I think that OPEC will not have much success (beyond what we’ve seen in last ten days) in reflating the price of oil, meaning that I am GUESSING that *whatever* value OPEC manages to lift oil prices back up in next few weeks, it will NOT hold, and will pull back to at least $40/bbl.

But all these random guesses (and hot air) should not distract us from the Big Long-Term Themes.

Oil will be over $200/bbl within five years. Count on it. Unless the WORLD is still in economic recession five years from now, but even a die-hard pessimist like me doesn’t anticipate THAT.

The point is that these are ridiculously low prices for oil stocks. Maybe I should shut up and stop speculating about selling them over some trivial pull-back to $40/bbl that might (or might not happen) in the short-term.

So then focus on holding (for at least five years) these stocks and view any near-term pullback on oil price as a chance to double-down buying more oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

my vote is for a low of approx $30 before the decline is over

I know a good investment when i see it. Chris_Scoreboard’s opinions are a good investment!

Another brilliant post from Chris.

I think there remains incredible amounts of demand destruction still lurking ahead of oil markets

I’ll say this much, I do believe oil goes below $40/bbl within three months. That means I gotta sell my long oil stocks position SOON. My overall plan on oil is to DUMP them and then wait for $40 oil again, and then LOAD UP again on oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

my vote is for a low of approx $30 before the decline is over

I know a good investment when i see it. Chris_Scoreboard’s opinions are a good investment!

Another brilliant post from Chris.

I think there remains incredible amounts of demand destruction still lurking ahead of oil markets

I’ll say this much, I do believe oil goes below $40/bbl within three months. That means I gotta sell my long oil stocks position SOON. My overall plan on oil is to DUMP them and then wait for $40 oil again, and then LOAD UP again on oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

my vote is for a low of approx $30 before the decline is over

I know a good investment when i see it. Chris_Scoreboard’s opinions are a good investment!

Another brilliant post from Chris.

I think there remains incredible amounts of demand destruction still lurking ahead of oil markets

I’ll say this much, I do believe oil goes below $40/bbl within three months. That means I gotta sell my long oil stocks position SOON. My overall plan on oil is to DUMP them and then wait for $40 oil again, and then LOAD UP again on oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

my vote is for a low of approx $30 before the decline is over

I know a good investment when i see it. Chris_Scoreboard’s opinions are a good investment!

Another brilliant post from Chris.

I think there remains incredible amounts of demand destruction still lurking ahead of oil markets

I’ll say this much, I do believe oil goes below $40/bbl within three months. That means I gotta sell my long oil stocks position SOON. My overall plan on oil is to DUMP them and then wait for $40 oil again, and then LOAD UP again on oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

my vote is for a low of approx $30 before the decline is over

I know a good investment when i see it. Chris_Scoreboard’s opinions are a good investment!

Another brilliant post from Chris.

I think there remains incredible amounts of demand destruction still lurking ahead of oil markets

I’ll say this much, I do believe oil goes below $40/bbl within three months. That means I gotta sell my long oil stocks position SOON. My overall plan on oil is to DUMP them and then wait for $40 oil again, and then LOAD UP again on oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

Yikes, the markets sure showed today they could finally turn south and break through that 890 (S&P500) resistance floor we thought had been established.

The short-term market direction remains very difficult to read and predict. I sure thought this Fool’s Rally had the momentum to hit 1000 or 1050. Maybe not. It didn’t look good in the second half of the trading day.

I hate to see the markets move down like they did today when I’m NOT MAKING ANY money on it! (Remember, early this week I dumped my 15%-of-portfolio position 2:1 leveraged short the S&P500 ETF.)

Well at least I kicked butt on oil stocks today. Wow. PBR hit 50% net appreciation (gained in under ten days) before it fell back a little at the end of the day, as overall stock markets fell back

I have very mixed feelings about holding onto my basket of oil stocks (that are showing on average 30% gains over just ten days). I kinda think oil price will pull back again, probably next month.

Is this a case of buy on the rumor (anticipation that OPEC cuts production in Dec) and sell on the fact (OPEC has now stated they WILL cut production again!) ??

For now, I hold onto the oil stocks, and cry in my Starbucks over fact that at the low of $40/bbl I only moved 20% of my entire portfolio into oil stocks. I should have gone with about 50% of portfolio on THAT bet. I mean, come on, $40 oil. How could I go wrong betting on that?

[stockstradr]

Yikes, the markets sure showed today they could finally turn south and break through that 890 (S&P500) resistance floor we thought had been established.

The short-term market direction remains very difficult to read and predict. I sure thought this Fool’s Rally had the momentum to hit 1000 or 1050. Maybe not. It didn’t look good in the second half of the trading day.

I hate to see the markets move down like they did today when I’m NOT MAKING ANY money on it! (Remember, early this week I dumped my 15%-of-portfolio position 2:1 leveraged short the S&P500 ETF.)

Well at least I kicked butt on oil stocks today. Wow. PBR hit 50% net appreciation (gained in under ten days) before it fell back a little at the end of the day, as overall stock markets fell back

I have very mixed feelings about holding onto my basket of oil stocks (that are showing on average 30% gains over just ten days). I kinda think oil price will pull back again, probably next month.

Is this a case of buy on the rumor (anticipation that OPEC cuts production in Dec) and sell on the fact (OPEC has now stated they WILL cut production again!) ??

For now, I hold onto the oil stocks, and cry in my Starbucks over fact that at the low of $40/bbl I only moved 20% of my entire portfolio into oil stocks. I should have gone with about 50% of portfolio on THAT bet. I mean, come on, $40 oil. How could I go wrong betting on that?

[stockstradr]

Yikes, the markets sure showed today they could finally turn south and break through that 890 (S&P500) resistance floor we thought had been established.

The short-term market direction remains very difficult to read and predict. I sure thought this Fool’s Rally had the momentum to hit 1000 or 1050. Maybe not. It didn’t look good in the second half of the trading day.

I hate to see the markets move down like they did today when I’m NOT MAKING ANY money on it! (Remember, early this week I dumped my 15%-of-portfolio position 2:1 leveraged short the S&P500 ETF.)

Well at least I kicked butt on oil stocks today. Wow. PBR hit 50% net appreciation (gained in under ten days) before it fell back a little at the end of the day, as overall stock markets fell back

I have very mixed feelings about holding onto my basket of oil stocks (that are showing on average 30% gains over just ten days). I kinda think oil price will pull back again, probably next month.

Is this a case of buy on the rumor (anticipation that OPEC cuts production in Dec) and sell on the fact (OPEC has now stated they WILL cut production again!) ??

For now, I hold onto the oil stocks, and cry in my Starbucks over fact that at the low of $40/bbl I only moved 20% of my entire portfolio into oil stocks. I should have gone with about 50% of portfolio on THAT bet. I mean, come on, $40 oil. How could I go wrong betting on that?

[stockstradr]

Yikes, the markets sure showed today they could finally turn south and break through that 890 (S&P500) resistance floor we thought had been established.

The short-term market direction remains very difficult to read and predict. I sure thought this Fool’s Rally had the momentum to hit 1000 or 1050. Maybe not. It didn’t look good in the second half of the trading day.

I hate to see the markets move down like they did today when I’m NOT MAKING ANY money on it! (Remember, early this week I dumped my 15%-of-portfolio position 2:1 leveraged short the S&P500 ETF.)

Well at least I kicked butt on oil stocks today. Wow. PBR hit 50% net appreciation (gained in under ten days) before it fell back a little at the end of the day, as overall stock markets fell back

I have very mixed feelings about holding onto my basket of oil stocks (that are showing on average 30% gains over just ten days). I kinda think oil price will pull back again, probably next month.

Is this a case of buy on the rumor (anticipation that OPEC cuts production in Dec) and sell on the fact (OPEC has now stated they WILL cut production again!) ??

For now, I hold onto the oil stocks, and cry in my Starbucks over fact that at the low of $40/bbl I only moved 20% of my entire portfolio into oil stocks. I should have gone with about 50% of portfolio on THAT bet. I mean, come on, $40 oil. How could I go wrong betting on that?

[stockstradr]

Yikes, the markets sure showed today they could finally turn south and break through that 890 (S&P500) resistance floor we thought had been established.

The short-term market direction remains very difficult to read and predict. I sure thought this Fool’s Rally had the momentum to hit 1000 or 1050. Maybe not. It didn’t look good in the second half of the trading day.

I hate to see the markets move down like they did today when I’m NOT MAKING ANY money on it! (Remember, early this week I dumped my 15%-of-portfolio position 2:1 leveraged short the S&P500 ETF.)

Well at least I kicked butt on oil stocks today. Wow. PBR hit 50% net appreciation (gained in under ten days) before it fell back a little at the end of the day, as overall stock markets fell back

I have very mixed feelings about holding onto my basket of oil stocks (that are showing on average 30% gains over just ten days). I kinda think oil price will pull back again, probably next month.

Is this a case of buy on the rumor (anticipation that OPEC cuts production in Dec) and sell on the fact (OPEC has now stated they WILL cut production again!) ??

For now, I hold onto the oil stocks, and cry in my Starbucks over fact that at the low of $40/bbl I only moved 20% of my entire portfolio into oil stocks. I should have gone with about 50% of portfolio on THAT bet. I mean, come on, $40 oil. How could I go wrong betting on that?

[stockstradr]

What is 1x leverage?

There ain’t no such thang. 1X is not leverage. My mistake.

I think the points by cooperthedog are very good, and this is how I learn so much on this forum.

Our education and ability to make money in the financial markets definitely progresses stage by stage. I’m at an early stage where I look towards futures as a valuable tool I need to understand, because this year I’m painfully aware of the limitations of my current toolkit. For example, I cannot trade after hours which obviously makes for huge risks when I hold lots volatility-sensitive positions overnight! I’ve been watching the futures trade after hours and thinking, “I need to learn how to trade futures, and trade them in ways that manage the risk associated with futures. That way I can also better manage the risks of events that hit the finanical markets in the after hours/overnight hours”

In a way I at least already passively use the behavior of overnight futures to help me anticipate the next day’s market. I always get up early in CA so I can check the futures before the markets open in NYC. I feel as if I’m going to the party blind, unless I have a clear picture of the index futures before the US markets open.

[stockstradr]

What is 1x leverage?

There ain’t no such thang. 1X is not leverage. My mistake.

I think the points by cooperthedog are very good, and this is how I learn so much on this forum.

Our education and ability to make money in the financial markets definitely progresses stage by stage. I’m at an early stage where I look towards futures as a valuable tool I need to understand, because this year I’m painfully aware of the limitations of my current toolkit. For example, I cannot trade after hours which obviously makes for huge risks when I hold lots volatility-sensitive positions overnight! I’ve been watching the futures trade after hours and thinking, “I need to learn how to trade futures, and trade them in ways that manage the risk associated with futures. That way I can also better manage the risks of events that hit the finanical markets in the after hours/overnight hours”

In a way I at least already passively use the behavior of overnight futures to help me anticipate the next day’s market. I always get up early in CA so I can check the futures before the markets open in NYC. I feel as if I’m going to the party blind, unless I have a clear picture of the index futures before the US markets open.

[Author]

Posts