[stockstradr]

It is a money-making opportunity. But the amount of money you can make without extreme leverage is low.

You think? Think again.

The 7-10 year Treasuries funds soared 11% since mid-Oct. The 20+ year funds soared 18% since mid-Nov. They can all fall just as fast.

ProShares Ultrashort 20-year ETF crashed 43% since mid-June (1/3 of that was in the last 30 days!) The Ultrashort 7-10 treasury ETF fell 25% in a similar period.

Those 2X short treasury ETF’s can rise just as fast. They will. The tricky question is WHEN.

I’m reading Ben Bernanke’s old speeches now, and they imply a lot more Fed intervention (to lower US Treasury yields) could be headed our way.

[stockstradr]

It is a money-making opportunity. But the amount of money you can make without extreme leverage is low.

You think? Think again.

The 7-10 year Treasuries funds soared 11% since mid-Oct. The 20+ year funds soared 18% since mid-Nov. They can all fall just as fast.

ProShares Ultrashort 20-year ETF crashed 43% since mid-June (1/3 of that was in the last 30 days!) The Ultrashort 7-10 treasury ETF fell 25% in a similar period.

Those 2X short treasury ETF’s can rise just as fast. They will. The tricky question is WHEN.

I’m reading Ben Bernanke’s old speeches now, and they imply a lot more Fed intervention (to lower US Treasury yields) could be headed our way.

[stockstradr]

It is a money-making opportunity. But the amount of money you can make without extreme leverage is low.

You think? Think again.

The 7-10 year Treasuries funds soared 11% since mid-Oct. The 20+ year funds soared 18% since mid-Nov. They can all fall just as fast.

ProShares Ultrashort 20-year ETF crashed 43% since mid-June (1/3 of that was in the last 30 days!) The Ultrashort 7-10 treasury ETF fell 25% in a similar period.

Those 2X short treasury ETF’s can rise just as fast. They will. The tricky question is WHEN.

I’m reading Ben Bernanke’s old speeches now, and they imply a lot more Fed intervention (to lower US Treasury yields) could be headed our way.

[stockstradr]

This speech by Ben “Helicopter” Bernanke is VERY worth reading:

“Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here”, by Ben S. Bernanke
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

It is interesting to read that 2002 article that lists many “extreme” actions the Fed could hypothetically take, and for us to NOW check off those that the Fed has recently in fact taken. This speech certainly provides insight into the policy actions that Ben will favor as actions to try and control this recession/depression.

One could take from this speech that it is probably too early to start shorting the US Treasuries, because the Fed WILL use its printing press to buy its own Treasuries to force down yields (if it isn’t ALREADY doing that)

Here is a tasty excerpt:

Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it’s worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt’s 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt’s devaluation.

[stockstradr]

This speech by Ben “Helicopter” Bernanke is VERY worth reading:

“Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here”, by Ben S. Bernanke
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

It is interesting to read that 2002 article that lists many “extreme” actions the Fed could hypothetically take, and for us to NOW check off those that the Fed has recently in fact taken. This speech certainly provides insight into the policy actions that Ben will favor as actions to try and control this recession/depression.

One could take from this speech that it is probably too early to start shorting the US Treasuries, because the Fed WILL use its printing press to buy its own Treasuries to force down yields (if it isn’t ALREADY doing that)

Here is a tasty excerpt:

Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it’s worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt’s 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt’s devaluation.

[stockstradr]

This speech by Ben “Helicopter” Bernanke is VERY worth reading:

“Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here”, by Ben S. Bernanke
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

It is interesting to read that 2002 article that lists many “extreme” actions the Fed could hypothetically take, and for us to NOW check off those that the Fed has recently in fact taken. This speech certainly provides insight into the policy actions that Ben will favor as actions to try and control this recession/depression.

One could take from this speech that it is probably too early to start shorting the US Treasuries, because the Fed WILL use its printing press to buy its own Treasuries to force down yields (if it isn’t ALREADY doing that)

Here is a tasty excerpt:

Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it’s worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt’s 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt’s devaluation.

[stockstradr]

This speech by Ben “Helicopter” Bernanke is VERY worth reading:

“Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here”, by Ben S. Bernanke
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

It is interesting to read that 2002 article that lists many “extreme” actions the Fed could hypothetically take, and for us to NOW check off those that the Fed has recently in fact taken. This speech certainly provides insight into the policy actions that Ben will favor as actions to try and control this recession/depression.

One could take from this speech that it is probably too early to start shorting the US Treasuries, because the Fed WILL use its printing press to buy its own Treasuries to force down yields (if it isn’t ALREADY doing that)

Here is a tasty excerpt:

Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it’s worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt’s 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt’s devaluation.

[stockstradr]

This speech by Ben “Helicopter” Bernanke is VERY worth reading:

“Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here”, by Ben S. Bernanke
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

It is interesting to read that 2002 article that lists many “extreme” actions the Fed could hypothetically take, and for us to NOW check off those that the Fed has recently in fact taken. This speech certainly provides insight into the policy actions that Ben will favor as actions to try and control this recession/depression.

One could take from this speech that it is probably too early to start shorting the US Treasuries, because the Fed WILL use its printing press to buy its own Treasuries to force down yields (if it isn’t ALREADY doing that)

Here is a tasty excerpt:

Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it’s worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt’s 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt’s devaluation.

[stockstradr]

Worth reading, not because it contains much new information (assuming you are well-informed) but because it is witty, in a darkly comical way:

“This is what a really bad recession looks like”, by Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/This-a-really-bad-recession/story.aspx?guid=%7BAB194334%2DCB9E%2D4B69%2D9AF4%2D9866D4E15E5B%7D

[stockstradr]

Worth reading, not because it contains much new information (assuming you are well-informed) but because it is witty, in a darkly comical way:

“This is what a really bad recession looks like”, by Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/This-a-really-bad-recession/story.aspx?guid=%7BAB194334%2DCB9E%2D4B69%2D9AF4%2D9866D4E15E5B%7D

[stockstradr]

Worth reading, not because it contains much new information (assuming you are well-informed) but because it is witty, in a darkly comical way:

“This is what a really bad recession looks like”, by Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/This-a-really-bad-recession/story.aspx?guid=%7BAB194334%2DCB9E%2D4B69%2D9AF4%2D9866D4E15E5B%7D

[stockstradr]

Worth reading, not because it contains much new information (assuming you are well-informed) but because it is witty, in a darkly comical way:

“This is what a really bad recession looks like”, by Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/This-a-really-bad-recession/story.aspx?guid=%7BAB194334%2DCB9E%2D4B69%2D9AF4%2D9866D4E15E5B%7D

[stockstradr]

Worth reading, not because it contains much new information (assuming you are well-informed) but because it is witty, in a darkly comical way:

“This is what a really bad recession looks like”, by Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/This-a-really-bad-recession/story.aspx?guid=%7BAB194334%2DCB9E%2D4B69%2D9AF4%2D9866D4E15E5B%7D

[stockstradr]

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now…

This is one of the few of Scoreboard’s opinions that I am certain will be proven wrong within 24 months.

One need not look at cyclical trends of the dollar. Intead, just punch the numbers into your calculator: 1) The total amount of debt (known including unfunded oblications=SS, Medicare..etc, plus inevitable additional “emergency” expenditures) the US Fed must auction in the next 24 months. 2) The now insanely high ratio of our total national debt to GDP, where total debt must include various unfunded obligations: war, SS, Medicare.

Plus those nations that have previously bought hundreds of billions of US securities – mostly to manage their currency against the trade deficit now see the USA dramatically reducing our purchases of their exports (not keeping up our end of the bargain), plus they themselves are now in recession.

[stockstradr]

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now…

This is one of the few of Scoreboard’s opinions that I am certain will be proven wrong within 24 months.

One need not look at cyclical trends of the dollar. Intead, just punch the numbers into your calculator: 1) The total amount of debt (known including unfunded oblications=SS, Medicare..etc, plus inevitable additional “emergency” expenditures) the US Fed must auction in the next 24 months. 2) The now insanely high ratio of our total national debt to GDP, where total debt must include various unfunded obligations: war, SS, Medicare.

Plus those nations that have previously bought hundreds of billions of US securities – mostly to manage their currency against the trade deficit now see the USA dramatically reducing our purchases of their exports (not keeping up our end of the bargain), plus they themselves are now in recession.

[Author]

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