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stockstradr
ParticipantWell, I tossed in the towel, deciding I don’t know where markets are headed during the next few weeks ahead of the expected rate drop.
So sold the long position I picked up yesterday in the ETF “SSO”
I have dumped my gold yesterday and today, seeing this pullback continuing in gold
I’m now entirely in cash, except for that short position against the oil sector I’m holding with the ETF “DUG.” That strategy is now moving very fast in my favor with the oil price having come down off the $100 mark, and inventories are rising. Several weeks ago, I was down -16% on that bet, but that negative has now turned slightly positive.
So the only SHORT-TERM bet I’m confident on is shorting oil. Demand is already dropping as this recession rolls in like a dark cloud. Yet I emphasize that long-term I see oil headed UP.
I’m in a wait-and-see holding pattern regards the indices, because my instincts are for a short-term rise ~5% ahead of the fed funds rate cut, but I’m only guessing not willing (anymore) to bet my money on it. However, as soon as I see these indexes pop up ~5% then I’ll buy short positions again on the indexes. I’m expecting that this deep recession will take the markets down eventually this year to declines another 20% lower than present values!
Summary for 2008: I made money on gold, shorting the S&P 500, puts on the NASDAQ. I’m now flat on the bet against oil. Since late Dec 2007 to now, net I’m up 20% over my portfolio. I can’t complain about that.
ParticipantWell, I tossed in the towel, deciding I don’t know where markets are headed during the next few weeks ahead of the expected rate drop.
So sold the long position I picked up yesterday in the ETF “SSO”
I have dumped my gold yesterday and today, seeing this pullback continuing in gold
I’m now entirely in cash, except for that short position against the oil sector I’m holding with the ETF “DUG.” That strategy is now moving very fast in my favor with the oil price having come down off the $100 mark, and inventories are rising. Several weeks ago, I was down -16% on that bet, but that negative has now turned slightly positive.
So the only SHORT-TERM bet I’m confident on is shorting oil. Demand is already dropping as this recession rolls in like a dark cloud. Yet I emphasize that long-term I see oil headed UP.
I’m in a wait-and-see holding pattern regards the indices, because my instincts are for a short-term rise ~5% ahead of the fed funds rate cut, but I’m only guessing not willing (anymore) to bet my money on it. However, as soon as I see these indexes pop up ~5% then I’ll buy short positions again on the indexes. I’m expecting that this deep recession will take the markets down eventually this year to declines another 20% lower than present values!
Summary for 2008: I made money on gold, shorting the S&P 500, puts on the NASDAQ. I’m now flat on the bet against oil. Since late Dec 2007 to now, net I’m up 20% over my portfolio. I can’t complain about that.
ParticipantWell, the markets dropped another 1% after I took those long positions. I’m starting to feel a Fool for trying to swim against an obviously bearish current.
As as for stating in this thread I closed short positions,I meant the collections of puts I was still holding on the indexes as the market opened. I sold to close all those positions when the market was down about 2% today. That was obviously a mistake, as the markets continued to tumble downward. On the puts I netted only about 25% gain across the positions because profits were diluted by a loss on two of them (QQQ JAN08 42, and QQQ JAN08 44) which I bought waaaay too early. (Of course, those two could still slide “in the money” if the markets drop “merely” another 5% to 7% in the next THREE days!) Fat chance.
You recall I shorted oil. You better get your jabs and insults in quick on that, because the market is moving fast in my favor now. Oil inventories are rising, as I expected, because we’re heading into a global recession. Oil has come down off the $100/bbl peak. However, I’ve got a ways to go because I shorted it at $83/bbl, clearly not one of my smarter moves.
ParticipantWell, the markets dropped another 1% after I took those long positions. I’m starting to feel a Fool for trying to swim against an obviously bearish current.
As as for stating in this thread I closed short positions,I meant the collections of puts I was still holding on the indexes as the market opened. I sold to close all those positions when the market was down about 2% today. That was obviously a mistake, as the markets continued to tumble downward. On the puts I netted only about 25% gain across the positions because profits were diluted by a loss on two of them (QQQ JAN08 42, and QQQ JAN08 44) which I bought waaaay too early. (Of course, those two could still slide “in the money” if the markets drop “merely” another 5% to 7% in the next THREE days!) Fat chance.
You recall I shorted oil. You better get your jabs and insults in quick on that, because the market is moving fast in my favor now. Oil inventories are rising, as I expected, because we’re heading into a global recession. Oil has come down off the $100/bbl peak. However, I’ve got a ways to go because I shorted it at $83/bbl, clearly not one of my smarter moves.
ParticipantWell, the markets dropped another 1% after I took those long positions. I’m starting to feel a Fool for trying to swim against an obviously bearish current.
As as for stating in this thread I closed short positions,I meant the collections of puts I was still holding on the indexes as the market opened. I sold to close all those positions when the market was down about 2% today. That was obviously a mistake, as the markets continued to tumble downward. On the puts I netted only about 25% gain across the positions because profits were diluted by a loss on two of them (QQQ JAN08 42, and QQQ JAN08 44) which I bought waaaay too early. (Of course, those two could still slide “in the money” if the markets drop “merely” another 5% to 7% in the next THREE days!) Fat chance.
You recall I shorted oil. You better get your jabs and insults in quick on that, because the market is moving fast in my favor now. Oil inventories are rising, as I expected, because we’re heading into a global recession. Oil has come down off the $100/bbl peak. However, I’ve got a ways to go because I shorted it at $83/bbl, clearly not one of my smarter moves.
ParticipantWell, the markets dropped another 1% after I took those long positions. I’m starting to feel a Fool for trying to swim against an obviously bearish current.
As as for stating in this thread I closed short positions,I meant the collections of puts I was still holding on the indexes as the market opened. I sold to close all those positions when the market was down about 2% today. That was obviously a mistake, as the markets continued to tumble downward. On the puts I netted only about 25% gain across the positions because profits were diluted by a loss on two of them (QQQ JAN08 42, and QQQ JAN08 44) which I bought waaaay too early. (Of course, those two could still slide “in the money” if the markets drop “merely” another 5% to 7% in the next THREE days!) Fat chance.
You recall I shorted oil. You better get your jabs and insults in quick on that, because the market is moving fast in my favor now. Oil inventories are rising, as I expected, because we’re heading into a global recession. Oil has come down off the $100/bbl peak. However, I’ve got a ways to go because I shorted it at $83/bbl, clearly not one of my smarter moves.
ParticipantWell, the markets dropped another 1% after I took those long positions. I’m starting to feel a Fool for trying to swim against an obviously bearish current.
As as for stating in this thread I closed short positions,I meant the collections of puts I was still holding on the indexes as the market opened. I sold to close all those positions when the market was down about 2% today. That was obviously a mistake, as the markets continued to tumble downward. On the puts I netted only about 25% gain across the positions because profits were diluted by a loss on two of them (QQQ JAN08 42, and QQQ JAN08 44) which I bought waaaay too early. (Of course, those two could still slide “in the money” if the markets drop “merely” another 5% to 7% in the next THREE days!) Fat chance.
You recall I shorted oil. You better get your jabs and insults in quick on that, because the market is moving fast in my favor now. Oil inventories are rising, as I expected, because we’re heading into a global recession. Oil has come down off the $100/bbl peak. However, I’ve got a ways to go because I shorted it at $83/bbl, clearly not one of my smarter moves.
ParticipantWeren’t some of the condo conversions downtown selling by having sexy models walking around mostly nude in windows clearly visible from the open house? Maybe the view he purchased was blonde.
Hey, I tried to buy one of those condo units with the naked blonde bombshell view, but my wife nixed it!
🙂ParticipantWeren’t some of the condo conversions downtown selling by having sexy models walking around mostly nude in windows clearly visible from the open house? Maybe the view he purchased was blonde.
Hey, I tried to buy one of those condo units with the naked blonde bombshell view, but my wife nixed it!
🙂ParticipantWeren’t some of the condo conversions downtown selling by having sexy models walking around mostly nude in windows clearly visible from the open house? Maybe the view he purchased was blonde.
Hey, I tried to buy one of those condo units with the naked blonde bombshell view, but my wife nixed it!
🙂ParticipantWeren’t some of the condo conversions downtown selling by having sexy models walking around mostly nude in windows clearly visible from the open house? Maybe the view he purchased was blonde.
Hey, I tried to buy one of those condo units with the naked blonde bombshell view, but my wife nixed it!
🙂ParticipantWeren’t some of the condo conversions downtown selling by having sexy models walking around mostly nude in windows clearly visible from the open house? Maybe the view he purchased was blonde.
Hey, I tried to buy one of those condo units with the naked blonde bombshell view, but my wife nixed it!
🙂ParticipantHere is the inside word from a tax assessor working for county gov in that area, who is handling these requests. Obviously, I cannot comment on where this opinion comes from beyond that. I don’t want to get that person fired.
My read from this is that if possible you want to negotiate your tax reduction without filing an Assessment Appeal application.
My additional between-the-lines read from this is that obviously the assessors are under considerable pressure from higher ups in state and county gov to delay/prevent the tax reductions that will invariably lead to financial crisis for the state and county governments, irrespective of fact that tax reductions are warranted.
This is going to really piss off a lot of property tax payers.
“what most people don’t understand is that the values showing up on their property tax bills now were calculated as of Jan 2006. Since the market was good then, we are rejecting the requests for review stating that the value is good and the taxpayer looks at us like we just landed from mars…. That leads the taxpayer then to file a formal Assessment Appeal application and that takes up to 2 years to process, hear and resolve values issues for each year, so here we are at least 4-5 years from the tax reduction event date and the taxpayer still doesn’t have resolution on the property that has declined…..and in fact some of these properties have declined 45%”
ParticipantHere is the inside word from a tax assessor working for county gov in that area, who is handling these requests. Obviously, I cannot comment on where this opinion comes from beyond that. I don’t want to get that person fired.
My read from this is that if possible you want to negotiate your tax reduction without filing an Assessment Appeal application.
My additional between-the-lines read from this is that obviously the assessors are under considerable pressure from higher ups in state and county gov to delay/prevent the tax reductions that will invariably lead to financial crisis for the state and county governments, irrespective of fact that tax reductions are warranted.
This is going to really piss off a lot of property tax payers.
“what most people don’t understand is that the values showing up on their property tax bills now were calculated as of Jan 2006. Since the market was good then, we are rejecting the requests for review stating that the value is good and the taxpayer looks at us like we just landed from mars…. That leads the taxpayer then to file a formal Assessment Appeal application and that takes up to 2 years to process, hear and resolve values issues for each year, so here we are at least 4-5 years from the tax reduction event date and the taxpayer still doesn’t have resolution on the property that has declined…..and in fact some of these properties have declined 45%”
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