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stockstradr
ParticipantOnly insomnia has driven me to post to this thread, which is filled with even more nonsense posts than the usual Pigg thread.
Gold ETF’s filled with “fake” gold?
It is practically a moot point, because if you read the prospectus cover-to-cover, you’ll identify so many other risks that the gold ETF’s might as well hold fake gold.
http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/sites/us/prospectus/
Because of these risks, when I take a position long gold, if I cannot buy bullion (such as when trading in a 401K or ROTH IRA) then I only buy the Central Gold Trust (GTU).
I’m presently DOUBLE-SHORT gold, having first established that 10%-of-portfolio position two weeks ago. Yes, so far the gold market is definitely moving my direction.
I am pleased that so many people on this thread think gold is a good buy at this price. That tells me I’m on the right side (short side) of the gold market!
When gold falls to about $700 (likely within 24 months), I’ll dump that short position and, as Hugh Hendry says (paraphrasing) “I’m gonna then back my truck up to the refinery and load my portfolio chock full of gold, then hold it for a good 10+ years, long enough for the dollar to collapse and send gold soaring above $6000/ounce!” (And that might just happen A LOT sooner than 10 years)
ParticipantOnly insomnia has driven me to post to this thread, which is filled with even more nonsense posts than the usual Pigg thread.
Gold ETF’s filled with “fake” gold?
It is practically a moot point, because if you read the prospectus cover-to-cover, you’ll identify so many other risks that the gold ETF’s might as well hold fake gold.
http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/sites/us/prospectus/
Because of these risks, when I take a position long gold, if I cannot buy bullion (such as when trading in a 401K or ROTH IRA) then I only buy the Central Gold Trust (GTU).
I’m presently DOUBLE-SHORT gold, having first established that 10%-of-portfolio position two weeks ago. Yes, so far the gold market is definitely moving my direction.
I am pleased that so many people on this thread think gold is a good buy at this price. That tells me I’m on the right side (short side) of the gold market!
When gold falls to about $700 (likely within 24 months), I’ll dump that short position and, as Hugh Hendry says (paraphrasing) “I’m gonna then back my truck up to the refinery and load my portfolio chock full of gold, then hold it for a good 10+ years, long enough for the dollar to collapse and send gold soaring above $6000/ounce!” (And that might just happen A LOT sooner than 10 years)
Participant“One question, is your statement regarding etfs, extending to the negative correlated ones. ”
Truth is, I don’t have all the answers or in-depth understanding of the various areas of risk for ETF’s. I do know that multiple brilliant market analysts with great track records have in recent years have emphasized the risks they are seeing with certain categories of securities, such as ETF’s. They know something. They understand the risks of ETF’s and it has them scared.
1) ETF’s prospectus reveal multiple levels of counterparty risk, and most importantly most ETF’s don’t actually hold much or all of the underlying asset they are intended to have a correlation with. Usually, they hold some basket of derivatives of that asset that are intended to create the intended (-200%,-100%, +100%, +200%, etc) correlation with the primary asset AND MOST IMPORTANTLY the prospectus allows the ETF add to their profits via additional market actions (puts, write calls/puts, whatever) on those derivatives), meaning at any point in time there is considerable counterparty risk for much of assets in an ETF.
For example, the gold ETF’s prospectus allows them to hold complex gold futures contracts or other derivatives INSTEAD of physical gold PLUS they can write derivatives (or loan out) against any physical gold they own, plus they have ZERO liability of the ETF fails to maintain the correlation to the asset
2) There are weird pricing instability issues with ETF’s that were confirmed with the recent “flash cash” where the investigation has already confirmed about 60% or 70% of the securities that had value crash temporarily in the flash crash were ETF’s.
So certainly these factors also mean same risks for SQQQ.
Participant“One question, is your statement regarding etfs, extending to the negative correlated ones. ”
Truth is, I don’t have all the answers or in-depth understanding of the various areas of risk for ETF’s. I do know that multiple brilliant market analysts with great track records have in recent years have emphasized the risks they are seeing with certain categories of securities, such as ETF’s. They know something. They understand the risks of ETF’s and it has them scared.
1) ETF’s prospectus reveal multiple levels of counterparty risk, and most importantly most ETF’s don’t actually hold much or all of the underlying asset they are intended to have a correlation with. Usually, they hold some basket of derivatives of that asset that are intended to create the intended (-200%,-100%, +100%, +200%, etc) correlation with the primary asset AND MOST IMPORTANTLY the prospectus allows the ETF add to their profits via additional market actions (puts, write calls/puts, whatever) on those derivatives), meaning at any point in time there is considerable counterparty risk for much of assets in an ETF.
For example, the gold ETF’s prospectus allows them to hold complex gold futures contracts or other derivatives INSTEAD of physical gold PLUS they can write derivatives (or loan out) against any physical gold they own, plus they have ZERO liability of the ETF fails to maintain the correlation to the asset
2) There are weird pricing instability issues with ETF’s that were confirmed with the recent “flash cash” where the investigation has already confirmed about 60% or 70% of the securities that had value crash temporarily in the flash crash were ETF’s.
So certainly these factors also mean same risks for SQQQ.
Participant“One question, is your statement regarding etfs, extending to the negative correlated ones. ”
Truth is, I don’t have all the answers or in-depth understanding of the various areas of risk for ETF’s. I do know that multiple brilliant market analysts with great track records have in recent years have emphasized the risks they are seeing with certain categories of securities, such as ETF’s. They know something. They understand the risks of ETF’s and it has them scared.
1) ETF’s prospectus reveal multiple levels of counterparty risk, and most importantly most ETF’s don’t actually hold much or all of the underlying asset they are intended to have a correlation with. Usually, they hold some basket of derivatives of that asset that are intended to create the intended (-200%,-100%, +100%, +200%, etc) correlation with the primary asset AND MOST IMPORTANTLY the prospectus allows the ETF add to their profits via additional market actions (puts, write calls/puts, whatever) on those derivatives), meaning at any point in time there is considerable counterparty risk for much of assets in an ETF.
For example, the gold ETF’s prospectus allows them to hold complex gold futures contracts or other derivatives INSTEAD of physical gold PLUS they can write derivatives (or loan out) against any physical gold they own, plus they have ZERO liability of the ETF fails to maintain the correlation to the asset
2) There are weird pricing instability issues with ETF’s that were confirmed with the recent “flash cash” where the investigation has already confirmed about 60% or 70% of the securities that had value crash temporarily in the flash crash were ETF’s.
So certainly these factors also mean same risks for SQQQ.
Participant“One question, is your statement regarding etfs, extending to the negative correlated ones. ”
Truth is, I don’t have all the answers or in-depth understanding of the various areas of risk for ETF’s. I do know that multiple brilliant market analysts with great track records have in recent years have emphasized the risks they are seeing with certain categories of securities, such as ETF’s. They know something. They understand the risks of ETF’s and it has them scared.
1) ETF’s prospectus reveal multiple levels of counterparty risk, and most importantly most ETF’s don’t actually hold much or all of the underlying asset they are intended to have a correlation with. Usually, they hold some basket of derivatives of that asset that are intended to create the intended (-200%,-100%, +100%, +200%, etc) correlation with the primary asset AND MOST IMPORTANTLY the prospectus allows the ETF add to their profits via additional market actions (puts, write calls/puts, whatever) on those derivatives), meaning at any point in time there is considerable counterparty risk for much of assets in an ETF.
For example, the gold ETF’s prospectus allows them to hold complex gold futures contracts or other derivatives INSTEAD of physical gold PLUS they can write derivatives (or loan out) against any physical gold they own, plus they have ZERO liability of the ETF fails to maintain the correlation to the asset
2) There are weird pricing instability issues with ETF’s that were confirmed with the recent “flash cash” where the investigation has already confirmed about 60% or 70% of the securities that had value crash temporarily in the flash crash were ETF’s.
So certainly these factors also mean same risks for SQQQ.
Participant“One question, is your statement regarding etfs, extending to the negative correlated ones. ”
Truth is, I don’t have all the answers or in-depth understanding of the various areas of risk for ETF’s. I do know that multiple brilliant market analysts with great track records have in recent years have emphasized the risks they are seeing with certain categories of securities, such as ETF’s. They know something. They understand the risks of ETF’s and it has them scared.
1) ETF’s prospectus reveal multiple levels of counterparty risk, and most importantly most ETF’s don’t actually hold much or all of the underlying asset they are intended to have a correlation with. Usually, they hold some basket of derivatives of that asset that are intended to create the intended (-200%,-100%, +100%, +200%, etc) correlation with the primary asset AND MOST IMPORTANTLY the prospectus allows the ETF add to their profits via additional market actions (puts, write calls/puts, whatever) on those derivatives), meaning at any point in time there is considerable counterparty risk for much of assets in an ETF.
For example, the gold ETF’s prospectus allows them to hold complex gold futures contracts or other derivatives INSTEAD of physical gold PLUS they can write derivatives (or loan out) against any physical gold they own, plus they have ZERO liability of the ETF fails to maintain the correlation to the asset
2) There are weird pricing instability issues with ETF’s that were confirmed with the recent “flash cash” where the investigation has already confirmed about 60% or 70% of the securities that had value crash temporarily in the flash crash were ETF’s.
So certainly these factors also mean same risks for SQQQ.
ParticipantAt the risk of being ridiculed by this forum’s many “Gold Bugs”, I’ll share that the most recent position I established was last week my double-shorting gold with 10% of my overall portfolio. (ProShares ETF “GLL”)
Later I read this Prechter interview and noticed he also sees rough waters ahead for gold (in the near term).
Since I’ve plugged “GLL” I had better also note I believe all ETF’s must be viewed as HIGH RISK for price instability (read about what happened in the recent “flash crash”) during this next leg down. I will begin to avoid all ETF’s when this ugly final dark stage of the financial depression really gets going – which could have me completely abandon the ETF’s within 12 months.
A classic example is the contrast (in risk) between owning SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD, TYO: 1326, SEHK: 2840, SGX:GLD 10US$), compared to owning Central Gold Trust (TSX: GTU.UN, TSX: GTU.U, NYSE: GTU) where the latter is MANDATED by charter to keep the bulk of net assets in physical gold (and of course the best choice is simply buying physical bullion and storing OUTSIDE the USA). I say to anyone, if you have read the prospectus of SPDR Gold Trust, and you were not FRIGHTENED by the implied risks, then you’ve not understood what you’ve read.
As for being conservative as we now enter this next phase of the economic depression:
See the reference RP makes to “Bernard Baruch” implying that the ones who made money and kept it after the Great Depression, were those who understand they had to be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and very carefully diversified (or straight cash) during the second leg of the depression where things really got ugly and chaotic, which is analogous to the period we are today entering.
The implication is that these economic conditions are so EXTREME that entire categories of financial instruments will crash, or exhibit value fluctuations so wild that the chaos can easily wipe out a portfolio. Further, that some of it will be so random and unpredictable, that even smartest bets placed by the brightest can go bad, so careful and smart diversification is a must.
ParticipantAt the risk of being ridiculed by this forum’s many “Gold Bugs”, I’ll share that the most recent position I established was last week my double-shorting gold with 10% of my overall portfolio. (ProShares ETF “GLL”)
Later I read this Prechter interview and noticed he also sees rough waters ahead for gold (in the near term).
Since I’ve plugged “GLL” I had better also note I believe all ETF’s must be viewed as HIGH RISK for price instability (read about what happened in the recent “flash crash”) during this next leg down. I will begin to avoid all ETF’s when this ugly final dark stage of the financial depression really gets going – which could have me completely abandon the ETF’s within 12 months.
A classic example is the contrast (in risk) between owning SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD, TYO: 1326, SEHK: 2840, SGX:GLD 10US$), compared to owning Central Gold Trust (TSX: GTU.UN, TSX: GTU.U, NYSE: GTU) where the latter is MANDATED by charter to keep the bulk of net assets in physical gold (and of course the best choice is simply buying physical bullion and storing OUTSIDE the USA). I say to anyone, if you have read the prospectus of SPDR Gold Trust, and you were not FRIGHTENED by the implied risks, then you’ve not understood what you’ve read.
As for being conservative as we now enter this next phase of the economic depression:
See the reference RP makes to “Bernard Baruch” implying that the ones who made money and kept it after the Great Depression, were those who understand they had to be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and very carefully diversified (or straight cash) during the second leg of the depression where things really got ugly and chaotic, which is analogous to the period we are today entering.
The implication is that these economic conditions are so EXTREME that entire categories of financial instruments will crash, or exhibit value fluctuations so wild that the chaos can easily wipe out a portfolio. Further, that some of it will be so random and unpredictable, that even smartest bets placed by the brightest can go bad, so careful and smart diversification is a must.
ParticipantAt the risk of being ridiculed by this forum’s many “Gold Bugs”, I’ll share that the most recent position I established was last week my double-shorting gold with 10% of my overall portfolio. (ProShares ETF “GLL”)
Later I read this Prechter interview and noticed he also sees rough waters ahead for gold (in the near term).
Since I’ve plugged “GLL” I had better also note I believe all ETF’s must be viewed as HIGH RISK for price instability (read about what happened in the recent “flash crash”) during this next leg down. I will begin to avoid all ETF’s when this ugly final dark stage of the financial depression really gets going – which could have me completely abandon the ETF’s within 12 months.
A classic example is the contrast (in risk) between owning SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD, TYO: 1326, SEHK: 2840, SGX:GLD 10US$), compared to owning Central Gold Trust (TSX: GTU.UN, TSX: GTU.U, NYSE: GTU) where the latter is MANDATED by charter to keep the bulk of net assets in physical gold (and of course the best choice is simply buying physical bullion and storing OUTSIDE the USA). I say to anyone, if you have read the prospectus of SPDR Gold Trust, and you were not FRIGHTENED by the implied risks, then you’ve not understood what you’ve read.
As for being conservative as we now enter this next phase of the economic depression:
See the reference RP makes to “Bernard Baruch” implying that the ones who made money and kept it after the Great Depression, were those who understand they had to be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and very carefully diversified (or straight cash) during the second leg of the depression where things really got ugly and chaotic, which is analogous to the period we are today entering.
The implication is that these economic conditions are so EXTREME that entire categories of financial instruments will crash, or exhibit value fluctuations so wild that the chaos can easily wipe out a portfolio. Further, that some of it will be so random and unpredictable, that even smartest bets placed by the brightest can go bad, so careful and smart diversification is a must.
ParticipantAt the risk of being ridiculed by this forum’s many “Gold Bugs”, I’ll share that the most recent position I established was last week my double-shorting gold with 10% of my overall portfolio. (ProShares ETF “GLL”)
Later I read this Prechter interview and noticed he also sees rough waters ahead for gold (in the near term).
Since I’ve plugged “GLL” I had better also note I believe all ETF’s must be viewed as HIGH RISK for price instability (read about what happened in the recent “flash crash”) during this next leg down. I will begin to avoid all ETF’s when this ugly final dark stage of the financial depression really gets going – which could have me completely abandon the ETF’s within 12 months.
A classic example is the contrast (in risk) between owning SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD, TYO: 1326, SEHK: 2840, SGX:GLD 10US$), compared to owning Central Gold Trust (TSX: GTU.UN, TSX: GTU.U, NYSE: GTU) where the latter is MANDATED by charter to keep the bulk of net assets in physical gold (and of course the best choice is simply buying physical bullion and storing OUTSIDE the USA). I say to anyone, if you have read the prospectus of SPDR Gold Trust, and you were not FRIGHTENED by the implied risks, then you’ve not understood what you’ve read.
As for being conservative as we now enter this next phase of the economic depression:
See the reference RP makes to “Bernard Baruch” implying that the ones who made money and kept it after the Great Depression, were those who understand they had to be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and very carefully diversified (or straight cash) during the second leg of the depression where things really got ugly and chaotic, which is analogous to the period we are today entering.
The implication is that these economic conditions are so EXTREME that entire categories of financial instruments will crash, or exhibit value fluctuations so wild that the chaos can easily wipe out a portfolio. Further, that some of it will be so random and unpredictable, that even smartest bets placed by the brightest can go bad, so careful and smart diversification is a must.
ParticipantAt the risk of being ridiculed by this forum’s many “Gold Bugs”, I’ll share that the most recent position I established was last week my double-shorting gold with 10% of my overall portfolio. (ProShares ETF “GLL”)
Later I read this Prechter interview and noticed he also sees rough waters ahead for gold (in the near term).
Since I’ve plugged “GLL” I had better also note I believe all ETF’s must be viewed as HIGH RISK for price instability (read about what happened in the recent “flash crash”) during this next leg down. I will begin to avoid all ETF’s when this ugly final dark stage of the financial depression really gets going – which could have me completely abandon the ETF’s within 12 months.
A classic example is the contrast (in risk) between owning SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD, TYO: 1326, SEHK: 2840, SGX:GLD 10US$), compared to owning Central Gold Trust (TSX: GTU.UN, TSX: GTU.U, NYSE: GTU) where the latter is MANDATED by charter to keep the bulk of net assets in physical gold (and of course the best choice is simply buying physical bullion and storing OUTSIDE the USA). I say to anyone, if you have read the prospectus of SPDR Gold Trust, and you were not FRIGHTENED by the implied risks, then you’ve not understood what you’ve read.
As for being conservative as we now enter this next phase of the economic depression:
See the reference RP makes to “Bernard Baruch” implying that the ones who made money and kept it after the Great Depression, were those who understand they had to be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and very carefully diversified (or straight cash) during the second leg of the depression where things really got ugly and chaotic, which is analogous to the period we are today entering.
The implication is that these economic conditions are so EXTREME that entire categories of financial instruments will crash, or exhibit value fluctuations so wild that the chaos can easily wipe out a portfolio. Further, that some of it will be so random and unpredictable, that even smartest bets placed by the brightest can go bad, so careful and smart diversification is a must.
ParticipantA few comments regarding Tom Tom (BAD) and Garmin (Good).
We have both a Tom Tom unit, and a Garmin, both with up to date maps.
We confirm what is widely discussed in GPS forums: Tom Tom maps are often very inaccurate for North America, but are far more accurate in Europe. This is due to Tom Tom sources its maps from a Europe focused map provider.
Garmin maps are generally far more accurate (than Tom Tom) for America’s region.
I would never again buy Tom Tom for use in America.
ParticipantA few comments regarding Tom Tom (BAD) and Garmin (Good).
We have both a Tom Tom unit, and a Garmin, both with up to date maps.
We confirm what is widely discussed in GPS forums: Tom Tom maps are often very inaccurate for North America, but are far more accurate in Europe. This is due to Tom Tom sources its maps from a Europe focused map provider.
Garmin maps are generally far more accurate (than Tom Tom) for America’s region.
I would never again buy Tom Tom for use in America.
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