[stockstradr]

We need to expel the current zombie US congress. Then erect a zombie-proof fence around both the upper and lower houses of the US Congress.

[stockstradr]

We need to expel the current zombie US congress. Then erect a zombie-proof fence around both the upper and lower houses of the US Congress.

[stockstradr]

We need to expel the current zombie US congress. Then erect a zombie-proof fence around both the upper and lower houses of the US Congress.

[stockstradr]

The economic conditions we face will become even more dark before we see stability and even mild recovery. Do not buy anything unless you run simulations about how these circumstances will impact your investments.

Deflation is here, and will increase in severity and this dynamic will drive government response, probably for three to five years.

Interest rates on (newly issuing) government securities will fall much lower than present yields. The Fed will ensure that occurs.

This will result in a (possibly brief) but substantial rally particularly in Treasury notes and bonds. It is happening already. However, with yields on the 30-year long bond only having fallen so far to 4.0%, there is plenty of room below to continue falling (and money to be made). During such periods you are better off holding straight Treasury bonds, instead of TIPS. You could go with a nice bond fund holding a range of US government 10-year notes to 30-year long bonds.

Study the behavior of the treasuries during the similar previous period first starting in 3rd qtr 2008 then dramatically accelerating (200 basis point move for both the 10-year note and 30-year long bond) during the short period from mid-Nov 2008 to the end of 2008. Look at how Hugh Hendry (Eclectica Asset Management) made a killing (40% increase in Eclectica Fund) during that period with (leveraged) buying of long-dated government bonds ahead of the rally.

That’s called front-running the Fed. Hugh Hendry is a smart guy.

Get ready for Round #2.

Feel free to go chart TIPS funds response (appreciation) versus straight 30-year long-bond fund response to that period. That will tell you why Hugh Hendry was NOT buying TIPS (and was buying government long-bonds) in Oct 2008!

Yes, we’ll eventually have the shift to incredible levels of inflation. I predict we won’t see that start for at least three years, probably even further off into the future. The collapse of a leading world currency often takes ten years or more, as history tells us.

Ahh, when you think of TIPS you must anticipate the inevitable US government conspiracy: only means of financial escape will be for USA to INFLATE and pay debtors back with ever more worthless dollars, and to pull that off you need the CPI to become even FAR MORE of a liar-metric (vastly under-reporting inflation). Ten years from now, the CPI and be far far more of a JOKE (of underreporting) than it already is.

So your TIPS will UNDERpay because they are inflation-indexed to an ever more and more UNDERreporting liar metric.

TIPS are a sucker’s bet.

I will only grant this, during this deflationary phase we are entering, TIPS are of course similar to cash and thus will be better (during this period) to hold than most all other investments.

And for God sake, do not buy city/state/county muni’s. (A better alternative would be to burn your money in the fireplace as that would have your money lasting longer than in municipal bonds, with the added benefit of providing some heart-warming flame.)

[stockstradr]

The economic conditions we face will become even more dark before we see stability and even mild recovery. Do not buy anything unless you run simulations about how these circumstances will impact your investments.

Deflation is here, and will increase in severity and this dynamic will drive government response, probably for three to five years.

Interest rates on (newly issuing) government securities will fall much lower than present yields. The Fed will ensure that occurs.

This will result in a (possibly brief) but substantial rally particularly in Treasury notes and bonds. It is happening already. However, with yields on the 30-year long bond only having fallen so far to 4.0%, there is plenty of room below to continue falling (and money to be made). During such periods you are better off holding straight Treasury bonds, instead of TIPS. You could go with a nice bond fund holding a range of US government 10-year notes to 30-year long bonds.

Study the behavior of the treasuries during the similar previous period first starting in 3rd qtr 2008 then dramatically accelerating (200 basis point move for both the 10-year note and 30-year long bond) during the short period from mid-Nov 2008 to the end of 2008. Look at how Hugh Hendry (Eclectica Asset Management) made a killing (40% increase in Eclectica Fund) during that period with (leveraged) buying of long-dated government bonds ahead of the rally.

That’s called front-running the Fed. Hugh Hendry is a smart guy.

Get ready for Round #2.

Feel free to go chart TIPS funds response (appreciation) versus straight 30-year long-bond fund response to that period. That will tell you why Hugh Hendry was NOT buying TIPS (and was buying government long-bonds) in Oct 2008!

Yes, we’ll eventually have the shift to incredible levels of inflation. I predict we won’t see that start for at least three years, probably even further off into the future. The collapse of a leading world currency often takes ten years or more, as history tells us.

Ahh, when you think of TIPS you must anticipate the inevitable US government conspiracy: only means of financial escape will be for USA to INFLATE and pay debtors back with ever more worthless dollars, and to pull that off you need the CPI to become even FAR MORE of a liar-metric (vastly under-reporting inflation). Ten years from now, the CPI and be far far more of a JOKE (of underreporting) than it already is.

So your TIPS will UNDERpay because they are inflation-indexed to an ever more and more UNDERreporting liar metric.

TIPS are a sucker’s bet.

I will only grant this, during this deflationary phase we are entering, TIPS are of course similar to cash and thus will be better (during this period) to hold than most all other investments.

And for God sake, do not buy city/state/county muni’s. (A better alternative would be to burn your money in the fireplace as that would have your money lasting longer than in municipal bonds, with the added benefit of providing some heart-warming flame.)

[stockstradr]

The economic conditions we face will become even more dark before we see stability and even mild recovery. Do not buy anything unless you run simulations about how these circumstances will impact your investments.

Deflation is here, and will increase in severity and this dynamic will drive government response, probably for three to five years.

Interest rates on (newly issuing) government securities will fall much lower than present yields. The Fed will ensure that occurs.

This will result in a (possibly brief) but substantial rally particularly in Treasury notes and bonds. It is happening already. However, with yields on the 30-year long bond only having fallen so far to 4.0%, there is plenty of room below to continue falling (and money to be made). During such periods you are better off holding straight Treasury bonds, instead of TIPS. You could go with a nice bond fund holding a range of US government 10-year notes to 30-year long bonds.

Study the behavior of the treasuries during the similar previous period first starting in 3rd qtr 2008 then dramatically accelerating (200 basis point move for both the 10-year note and 30-year long bond) during the short period from mid-Nov 2008 to the end of 2008. Look at how Hugh Hendry (Eclectica Asset Management) made a killing (40% increase in Eclectica Fund) during that period with (leveraged) buying of long-dated government bonds ahead of the rally.

That’s called front-running the Fed. Hugh Hendry is a smart guy.

Get ready for Round #2.

Feel free to go chart TIPS funds response (appreciation) versus straight 30-year long-bond fund response to that period. That will tell you why Hugh Hendry was NOT buying TIPS (and was buying government long-bonds) in Oct 2008!

Yes, we’ll eventually have the shift to incredible levels of inflation. I predict we won’t see that start for at least three years, probably even further off into the future. The collapse of a leading world currency often takes ten years or more, as history tells us.

Ahh, when you think of TIPS you must anticipate the inevitable US government conspiracy: only means of financial escape will be for USA to INFLATE and pay debtors back with ever more worthless dollars, and to pull that off you need the CPI to become even FAR MORE of a liar-metric (vastly under-reporting inflation). Ten years from now, the CPI and be far far more of a JOKE (of underreporting) than it already is.

So your TIPS will UNDERpay because they are inflation-indexed to an ever more and more UNDERreporting liar metric.

TIPS are a sucker’s bet.

I will only grant this, during this deflationary phase we are entering, TIPS are of course similar to cash and thus will be better (during this period) to hold than most all other investments.

And for God sake, do not buy city/state/county muni’s. (A better alternative would be to burn your money in the fireplace as that would have your money lasting longer than in municipal bonds, with the added benefit of providing some heart-warming flame.)

[stockstradr]

The economic conditions we face will become even more dark before we see stability and even mild recovery. Do not buy anything unless you run simulations about how these circumstances will impact your investments.

Deflation is here, and will increase in severity and this dynamic will drive government response, probably for three to five years.

Interest rates on (newly issuing) government securities will fall much lower than present yields. The Fed will ensure that occurs.

This will result in a (possibly brief) but substantial rally particularly in Treasury notes and bonds. It is happening already. However, with yields on the 30-year long bond only having fallen so far to 4.0%, there is plenty of room below to continue falling (and money to be made). During such periods you are better off holding straight Treasury bonds, instead of TIPS. You could go with a nice bond fund holding a range of US government 10-year notes to 30-year long bonds.

Study the behavior of the treasuries during the similar previous period first starting in 3rd qtr 2008 then dramatically accelerating (200 basis point move for both the 10-year note and 30-year long bond) during the short period from mid-Nov 2008 to the end of 2008. Look at how Hugh Hendry (Eclectica Asset Management) made a killing (40% increase in Eclectica Fund) during that period with (leveraged) buying of long-dated government bonds ahead of the rally.

That’s called front-running the Fed. Hugh Hendry is a smart guy.

Get ready for Round #2.

Feel free to go chart TIPS funds response (appreciation) versus straight 30-year long-bond fund response to that period. That will tell you why Hugh Hendry was NOT buying TIPS (and was buying government long-bonds) in Oct 2008!

Yes, we’ll eventually have the shift to incredible levels of inflation. I predict we won’t see that start for at least three years, probably even further off into the future. The collapse of a leading world currency often takes ten years or more, as history tells us.

Ahh, when you think of TIPS you must anticipate the inevitable US government conspiracy: only means of financial escape will be for USA to INFLATE and pay debtors back with ever more worthless dollars, and to pull that off you need the CPI to become even FAR MORE of a liar-metric (vastly under-reporting inflation). Ten years from now, the CPI and be far far more of a JOKE (of underreporting) than it already is.

So your TIPS will UNDERpay because they are inflation-indexed to an ever more and more UNDERreporting liar metric.

TIPS are a sucker’s bet.

I will only grant this, during this deflationary phase we are entering, TIPS are of course similar to cash and thus will be better (during this period) to hold than most all other investments.

And for God sake, do not buy city/state/county muni’s. (A better alternative would be to burn your money in the fireplace as that would have your money lasting longer than in municipal bonds, with the added benefit of providing some heart-warming flame.)

[stockstradr]

The economic conditions we face will become even more dark before we see stability and even mild recovery. Do not buy anything unless you run simulations about how these circumstances will impact your investments.

Deflation is here, and will increase in severity and this dynamic will drive government response, probably for three to five years.

Interest rates on (newly issuing) government securities will fall much lower than present yields. The Fed will ensure that occurs.

This will result in a (possibly brief) but substantial rally particularly in Treasury notes and bonds. It is happening already. However, with yields on the 30-year long bond only having fallen so far to 4.0%, there is plenty of room below to continue falling (and money to be made). During such periods you are better off holding straight Treasury bonds, instead of TIPS. You could go with a nice bond fund holding a range of US government 10-year notes to 30-year long bonds.

Study the behavior of the treasuries during the similar previous period first starting in 3rd qtr 2008 then dramatically accelerating (200 basis point move for both the 10-year note and 30-year long bond) during the short period from mid-Nov 2008 to the end of 2008. Look at how Hugh Hendry (Eclectica Asset Management) made a killing (40% increase in Eclectica Fund) during that period with (leveraged) buying of long-dated government bonds ahead of the rally.

That’s called front-running the Fed. Hugh Hendry is a smart guy.

Get ready for Round #2.

Feel free to go chart TIPS funds response (appreciation) versus straight 30-year long-bond fund response to that period. That will tell you why Hugh Hendry was NOT buying TIPS (and was buying government long-bonds) in Oct 2008!

Yes, we’ll eventually have the shift to incredible levels of inflation. I predict we won’t see that start for at least three years, probably even further off into the future. The collapse of a leading world currency often takes ten years or more, as history tells us.

Ahh, when you think of TIPS you must anticipate the inevitable US government conspiracy: only means of financial escape will be for USA to INFLATE and pay debtors back with ever more worthless dollars, and to pull that off you need the CPI to become even FAR MORE of a liar-metric (vastly under-reporting inflation). Ten years from now, the CPI and be far far more of a JOKE (of underreporting) than it already is.

So your TIPS will UNDERpay because they are inflation-indexed to an ever more and more UNDERreporting liar metric.

TIPS are a sucker’s bet.

I will only grant this, during this deflationary phase we are entering, TIPS are of course similar to cash and thus will be better (during this period) to hold than most all other investments.

And for God sake, do not buy city/state/county muni’s. (A better alternative would be to burn your money in the fireplace as that would have your money lasting longer than in municipal bonds, with the added benefit of providing some heart-warming flame.)

[stockstradr]

I’ve often said that remote and isolated caves are the best real estate investment, in this economy.

🙂

[stockstradr]

I’ve often said that remote and isolated caves are the best real estate investment, in this economy.

🙂

[stockstradr]

I’ve often said that remote and isolated caves are the best real estate investment, in this economy.

🙂

[stockstradr]

I’ve often said that remote and isolated caves are the best real estate investment, in this economy.

🙂

[stockstradr]

I’ve often said that remote and isolated caves are the best real estate investment, in this economy.

🙂

[stockstradr]

I have theory that America’s satellite commuter cities will turn into ghost towns when their lack of convenient mass transportation collides with full onset of Peak Oil.

I predict you’ll be knocked over at the magnitude of this, when it happens.

I acknowledge it could easily take 10 years, but could happen as sooner, say in five to seven years. I do NOT believe it will happen in the next five years (due to deflationary forces in effect through major portion of that five-year period)

However, long-term think of gas costing not $5 or $10, but $20 or more per gallon, measured in today’s dollars – but against a backdrop of a much lower American standard of living.

Average Americans will not be able to afford to drive gasoline cars

Cities like Temecula will end up with vast areas of abandoned homes.

I have a lot of theories, blah blah blah. Here’s another theory: it (economic depression) will end with riots in the streets of most large cities, and huge increases in crime, frightening increases particularly in cities like San Diego (proximity to Mexico, large poor illegal immigrant population). This has implications for housing prices.

It implies there IS a specialty sector of housing that will appreciate significantly more than most: homes buried deep inside the (presently) safest areas plus residing within WALLED zones that you can only enter at single gate manned with armed security guards.

You may think there are too few such areas currently available with all those features; however, you should search for sites that can be quickly UPGRADED to have these features. For example, wealthier subdivisions that are already completely surrounded now by some form of perimeter fence and only have one or two entrances. Ten years on and those residents will have demanded that it be converted to say a 10 ft tall concrete wall (maybe with barbed wire on top), and the subdivision will have one gated entrance with armed guards where your ID has to match to resident name list to gain entry.

The dynamic is that the rich will get scared. Then they will flock to highly secure housing areas. That will drive the price way up.

[stockstradr]

I have theory that America’s satellite commuter cities will turn into ghost towns when their lack of convenient mass transportation collides with full onset of Peak Oil.

I predict you’ll be knocked over at the magnitude of this, when it happens.

I acknowledge it could easily take 10 years, but could happen as sooner, say in five to seven years. I do NOT believe it will happen in the next five years (due to deflationary forces in effect through major portion of that five-year period)

However, long-term think of gas costing not $5 or $10, but $20 or more per gallon, measured in today’s dollars – but against a backdrop of a much lower American standard of living.

Average Americans will not be able to afford to drive gasoline cars

Cities like Temecula will end up with vast areas of abandoned homes.

I have a lot of theories, blah blah blah. Here’s another theory: it (economic depression) will end with riots in the streets of most large cities, and huge increases in crime, frightening increases particularly in cities like San Diego (proximity to Mexico, large poor illegal immigrant population). This has implications for housing prices.

It implies there IS a specialty sector of housing that will appreciate significantly more than most: homes buried deep inside the (presently) safest areas plus residing within WALLED zones that you can only enter at single gate manned with armed security guards.

You may think there are too few such areas currently available with all those features; however, you should search for sites that can be quickly UPGRADED to have these features. For example, wealthier subdivisions that are already completely surrounded now by some form of perimeter fence and only have one or two entrances. Ten years on and those residents will have demanded that it be converted to say a 10 ft tall concrete wall (maybe with barbed wire on top), and the subdivision will have one gated entrance with armed guards where your ID has to match to resident name list to gain entry.

The dynamic is that the rich will get scared. Then they will flock to highly secure housing areas. That will drive the price way up.

[Author]

Posts