[stockstradr]

Have you noticed that Shanghai index is creeping up recently?

You are right about that, and I admit it isn’t a small move, apparently up 11% since only July 5th

I guess my answer is that economic fundamentals will drive China’s stock markets, not the reverse.

Here is a good example of the kind of analysis of the economic fundamentals I find compelling regards imminent economic crash in China:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99HNFCn5RP8

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704229004575370591476816352.html

If that analysis is accurate, and those predictions come to pass, then China’s stock market must fall. Keep in mind the 2005 low was 1,000. The 2008 low was 1750. Taking a guess, I figure this economic crash in China will take the SSE Composite Index well below the 2008 low.

[stockstradr]

Have you noticed that Shanghai index is creeping up recently?

You are right about that, and I admit it isn’t a small move, apparently up 11% since only July 5th

I guess my answer is that economic fundamentals will drive China’s stock markets, not the reverse.

Here is a good example of the kind of analysis of the economic fundamentals I find compelling regards imminent economic crash in China:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99HNFCn5RP8

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704229004575370591476816352.html

If that analysis is accurate, and those predictions come to pass, then China’s stock market must fall. Keep in mind the 2005 low was 1,000. The 2008 low was 1750. Taking a guess, I figure this economic crash in China will take the SSE Composite Index well below the 2008 low.

[stockstradr]

Have you noticed that Shanghai index is creeping up recently?

You are right about that, and I admit it isn’t a small move, apparently up 11% since only July 5th

I guess my answer is that economic fundamentals will drive China’s stock markets, not the reverse.

Here is a good example of the kind of analysis of the economic fundamentals I find compelling regards imminent economic crash in China:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99HNFCn5RP8

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704229004575370591476816352.html

If that analysis is accurate, and those predictions come to pass, then China’s stock market must fall. Keep in mind the 2005 low was 1,000. The 2008 low was 1750. Taking a guess, I figure this economic crash in China will take the SSE Composite Index well below the 2008 low.

[stockstradr]

Aecetia, thanks for posting that link to Harvey Organ’s – The Daily Gold

That looks like a good site for me to start reading. I must admit, if I’m going double-short gold, I should know the kind of details on the gold market that he presented in that July 27th blog.

[stockstradr]

Aecetia, thanks for posting that link to Harvey Organ’s – The Daily Gold

That looks like a good site for me to start reading. I must admit, if I’m going double-short gold, I should know the kind of details on the gold market that he presented in that July 27th blog.

[stockstradr]

Aecetia, thanks for posting that link to Harvey Organ’s – The Daily Gold

That looks like a good site for me to start reading. I must admit, if I’m going double-short gold, I should know the kind of details on the gold market that he presented in that July 27th blog.

[stockstradr]

Aecetia, thanks for posting that link to Harvey Organ’s – The Daily Gold

That looks like a good site for me to start reading. I must admit, if I’m going double-short gold, I should know the kind of details on the gold market that he presented in that July 27th blog.

[stockstradr]

Aecetia, thanks for posting that link to Harvey Organ’s – The Daily Gold

That looks like a good site for me to start reading. I must admit, if I’m going double-short gold, I should know the kind of details on the gold market that he presented in that July 27th blog.

[stockstradr]

“Would you recommend buying bonds or gold…”

This below is NOT financial advice. I’m just sharing what I’m doing.

As mentioned in my post in another thread today:

Long-term (over five years), yes, gold is a winning bet. I believe short-term (next few years) gold will be a LOSING bet, probably in a big way.

I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

My track record? Damn good when it comes to gold. I’ve been swing trading in and out of gold for about five years, and I’ve made money on nearly every trade and I am way up when all the trades are netted.

One final comment. I track and follow about a dozen analysts / hedge fund managers who I consider “smart money” meaning those who have been making the most accurate predictions on financial markets for decades.

They are ALL recently critical of gold, warning it is currently overpriced in its hitting $1100 to $1200 range.

So what else to invest in? If you believe deflation is here, and getting worse, take a hint from people like Robert Prechter (and many others) who remind us that CASH IS KING when deflation hits. You hoard cash also for simple SURVIVAL through probably the worst economic conditions you’ll see in your life. You hoard cash, because deflation makes every dollar worth more. You sell now any capital asset you practically can (to raise more cash), because deflation will eat away capital asset value.

And a final important reason you hoard cash: to go shopping the fire sales at the dark, ugly bottom. Look to Las Vegas where homes are already selling for 80% off peak. That should give you an idea of the bargains that will be seen in many assets in many regions.

My wife and I together are banking about five grand a month, have been doing so now for a couple years. I canceled cable TV, Sat TV. We eat in. We’ve both kept our jobs (thank God). We don’t go to movies. Instead, we take our toddler to play the park (that’s free).

Think I’m crazy. We sold our 3BD 2BTH 1200 sq ft San Diego condo in mid-2005 for $405,000, slightly missing peak pricing of $415K

Hundreds of our friends scolded us then, that we were crazy to sell.

That condo is now worth about $260,000 based on recent sales. They were crazy not to sell.

So that shows how insane deflation (and bubbles) can be. Now, imagine that condo’s value falling to say $80K within the next five years.

That is very possible, IF we now are now facing a full-on deflationary depression.

When that baby hits $80K, I plan to have way more than $80K in cash in the bank so I can buy that sucker back. (and a lot of whatever else looks tasty at 80% and 90% discounted prices)

[stockstradr]

“Would you recommend buying bonds or gold…”

This below is NOT financial advice. I’m just sharing what I’m doing.

As mentioned in my post in another thread today:

Long-term (over five years), yes, gold is a winning bet. I believe short-term (next few years) gold will be a LOSING bet, probably in a big way.

I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

My track record? Damn good when it comes to gold. I’ve been swing trading in and out of gold for about five years, and I’ve made money on nearly every trade and I am way up when all the trades are netted.

One final comment. I track and follow about a dozen analysts / hedge fund managers who I consider “smart money” meaning those who have been making the most accurate predictions on financial markets for decades.

They are ALL recently critical of gold, warning it is currently overpriced in its hitting $1100 to $1200 range.

So what else to invest in? If you believe deflation is here, and getting worse, take a hint from people like Robert Prechter (and many others) who remind us that CASH IS KING when deflation hits. You hoard cash also for simple SURVIVAL through probably the worst economic conditions you’ll see in your life. You hoard cash, because deflation makes every dollar worth more. You sell now any capital asset you practically can (to raise more cash), because deflation will eat away capital asset value.

And a final important reason you hoard cash: to go shopping the fire sales at the dark, ugly bottom. Look to Las Vegas where homes are already selling for 80% off peak. That should give you an idea of the bargains that will be seen in many assets in many regions.

My wife and I together are banking about five grand a month, have been doing so now for a couple years. I canceled cable TV, Sat TV. We eat in. We’ve both kept our jobs (thank God). We don’t go to movies. Instead, we take our toddler to play the park (that’s free).

Think I’m crazy. We sold our 3BD 2BTH 1200 sq ft San Diego condo in mid-2005 for $405,000, slightly missing peak pricing of $415K

Hundreds of our friends scolded us then, that we were crazy to sell.

That condo is now worth about $260,000 based on recent sales. They were crazy not to sell.

So that shows how insane deflation (and bubbles) can be. Now, imagine that condo’s value falling to say $80K within the next five years.

That is very possible, IF we now are now facing a full-on deflationary depression.

When that baby hits $80K, I plan to have way more than $80K in cash in the bank so I can buy that sucker back. (and a lot of whatever else looks tasty at 80% and 90% discounted prices)

[stockstradr]

“Would you recommend buying bonds or gold…”

This below is NOT financial advice. I’m just sharing what I’m doing.

As mentioned in my post in another thread today:

Long-term (over five years), yes, gold is a winning bet. I believe short-term (next few years) gold will be a LOSING bet, probably in a big way.

I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

My track record? Damn good when it comes to gold. I’ve been swing trading in and out of gold for about five years, and I’ve made money on nearly every trade and I am way up when all the trades are netted.

One final comment. I track and follow about a dozen analysts / hedge fund managers who I consider “smart money” meaning those who have been making the most accurate predictions on financial markets for decades.

They are ALL recently critical of gold, warning it is currently overpriced in its hitting $1100 to $1200 range.

So what else to invest in? If you believe deflation is here, and getting worse, take a hint from people like Robert Prechter (and many others) who remind us that CASH IS KING when deflation hits. You hoard cash also for simple SURVIVAL through probably the worst economic conditions you’ll see in your life. You hoard cash, because deflation makes every dollar worth more. You sell now any capital asset you practically can (to raise more cash), because deflation will eat away capital asset value.

And a final important reason you hoard cash: to go shopping the fire sales at the dark, ugly bottom. Look to Las Vegas where homes are already selling for 80% off peak. That should give you an idea of the bargains that will be seen in many assets in many regions.

My wife and I together are banking about five grand a month, have been doing so now for a couple years. I canceled cable TV, Sat TV. We eat in. We’ve both kept our jobs (thank God). We don’t go to movies. Instead, we take our toddler to play the park (that’s free).

Think I’m crazy. We sold our 3BD 2BTH 1200 sq ft San Diego condo in mid-2005 for $405,000, slightly missing peak pricing of $415K

Hundreds of our friends scolded us then, that we were crazy to sell.

That condo is now worth about $260,000 based on recent sales. They were crazy not to sell.

So that shows how insane deflation (and bubbles) can be. Now, imagine that condo’s value falling to say $80K within the next five years.

That is very possible, IF we now are now facing a full-on deflationary depression.

When that baby hits $80K, I plan to have way more than $80K in cash in the bank so I can buy that sucker back. (and a lot of whatever else looks tasty at 80% and 90% discounted prices)

[stockstradr]

“Would you recommend buying bonds or gold…”

This below is NOT financial advice. I’m just sharing what I’m doing.

As mentioned in my post in another thread today:

Long-term (over five years), yes, gold is a winning bet. I believe short-term (next few years) gold will be a LOSING bet, probably in a big way.

I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

My track record? Damn good when it comes to gold. I’ve been swing trading in and out of gold for about five years, and I’ve made money on nearly every trade and I am way up when all the trades are netted.

One final comment. I track and follow about a dozen analysts / hedge fund managers who I consider “smart money” meaning those who have been making the most accurate predictions on financial markets for decades.

They are ALL recently critical of gold, warning it is currently overpriced in its hitting $1100 to $1200 range.

So what else to invest in? If you believe deflation is here, and getting worse, take a hint from people like Robert Prechter (and many others) who remind us that CASH IS KING when deflation hits. You hoard cash also for simple SURVIVAL through probably the worst economic conditions you’ll see in your life. You hoard cash, because deflation makes every dollar worth more. You sell now any capital asset you practically can (to raise more cash), because deflation will eat away capital asset value.

And a final important reason you hoard cash: to go shopping the fire sales at the dark, ugly bottom. Look to Las Vegas where homes are already selling for 80% off peak. That should give you an idea of the bargains that will be seen in many assets in many regions.

My wife and I together are banking about five grand a month, have been doing so now for a couple years. I canceled cable TV, Sat TV. We eat in. We’ve both kept our jobs (thank God). We don’t go to movies. Instead, we take our toddler to play the park (that’s free).

Think I’m crazy. We sold our 3BD 2BTH 1200 sq ft San Diego condo in mid-2005 for $405,000, slightly missing peak pricing of $415K

Hundreds of our friends scolded us then, that we were crazy to sell.

That condo is now worth about $260,000 based on recent sales. They were crazy not to sell.

So that shows how insane deflation (and bubbles) can be. Now, imagine that condo’s value falling to say $80K within the next five years.

That is very possible, IF we now are now facing a full-on deflationary depression.

When that baby hits $80K, I plan to have way more than $80K in cash in the bank so I can buy that sucker back. (and a lot of whatever else looks tasty at 80% and 90% discounted prices)

[stockstradr]

“Would you recommend buying bonds or gold…”

This below is NOT financial advice. I’m just sharing what I’m doing.

As mentioned in my post in another thread today:

Long-term (over five years), yes, gold is a winning bet. I believe short-term (next few years) gold will be a LOSING bet, probably in a big way.

I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

My track record? Damn good when it comes to gold. I’ve been swing trading in and out of gold for about five years, and I’ve made money on nearly every trade and I am way up when all the trades are netted.

One final comment. I track and follow about a dozen analysts / hedge fund managers who I consider “smart money” meaning those who have been making the most accurate predictions on financial markets for decades.

They are ALL recently critical of gold, warning it is currently overpriced in its hitting $1100 to $1200 range.

So what else to invest in? If you believe deflation is here, and getting worse, take a hint from people like Robert Prechter (and many others) who remind us that CASH IS KING when deflation hits. You hoard cash also for simple SURVIVAL through probably the worst economic conditions you’ll see in your life. You hoard cash, because deflation makes every dollar worth more. You sell now any capital asset you practically can (to raise more cash), because deflation will eat away capital asset value.

And a final important reason you hoard cash: to go shopping the fire sales at the dark, ugly bottom. Look to Las Vegas where homes are already selling for 80% off peak. That should give you an idea of the bargains that will be seen in many assets in many regions.

My wife and I together are banking about five grand a month, have been doing so now for a couple years. I canceled cable TV, Sat TV. We eat in. We’ve both kept our jobs (thank God). We don’t go to movies. Instead, we take our toddler to play the park (that’s free).

Think I’m crazy. We sold our 3BD 2BTH 1200 sq ft San Diego condo in mid-2005 for $405,000, slightly missing peak pricing of $415K

Hundreds of our friends scolded us then, that we were crazy to sell.

That condo is now worth about $260,000 based on recent sales. They were crazy not to sell.

So that shows how insane deflation (and bubbles) can be. Now, imagine that condo’s value falling to say $80K within the next five years.

That is very possible, IF we now are now facing a full-on deflationary depression.

When that baby hits $80K, I plan to have way more than $80K in cash in the bank so I can buy that sucker back. (and a lot of whatever else looks tasty at 80% and 90% discounted prices)

[stockstradr]

I agree with Krugman, on every point.

And I also say this is easy money, from a market speculation standpoint. (If you accept assumption deflation is here, and it will worsen and be the primary dynamic for the next few years.)

1) I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

2) Finally, after years of saying “NO” I’m now saying “YES” agreeing with analysts who – for years – have been predicting economic crash in China. They are finally right. Major economic crash is hitting China. I believe it has already started six months ago and is now irreversible.

I took a position in Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP. I’m late on that trade. Shanghai index has already fallen quite a bit.

YES, I’m working on selling my Tianjin condo. (I should have gotten it onto the market and sold it six months ago.)

3) I am betting for a continued rally in the US long bonds, buying TLT (iShares 20+ year treasury bond fund). I’m also late on this trade. Bonds have really rallied recently already ahead of my trade. Yes, I’m implying that the Fed will act to pull down the yield of the long bond.

[stockstradr]

I agree with Krugman, on every point.

And I also say this is easy money, from a market speculation standpoint. (If you accept assumption deflation is here, and it will worsen and be the primary dynamic for the next few years.)

1) I recently doubled-down my double-short position on gold, which I established a couple weeks ago. (“GLL” PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD) That position is now at 15% of my portfolio. When the gold bugs realize they have bought a commodity and are now facing strong winds of deflation, they will turn tail and dump gold.

My market call? Gold below $700 within the next 12 months. Yes, when I see that price I will switch my position to the other side (long) buying up truckloads of the yellow metal.

2) Finally, after years of saying “NO” I’m now saying “YES” agreeing with analysts who – for years – have been predicting economic crash in China. They are finally right. Major economic crash is hitting China. I believe it has already started six months ago and is now irreversible.

I took a position in Ultrashort Xinhua China ticker FXP. I’m late on that trade. Shanghai index has already fallen quite a bit.

YES, I’m working on selling my Tianjin condo. (I should have gotten it onto the market and sold it six months ago.)

3) I am betting for a continued rally in the US long bonds, buying TLT (iShares 20+ year treasury bond fund). I’m also late on this trade. Bonds have really rallied recently already ahead of my trade. Yes, I’m implying that the Fed will act to pull down the yield of the long bond.

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