[stansd]

Said another way: The prudent are now being rewarded, while the profligate are being punished. As it should be. If you were a credit risk in a good economy, which many of these folks were, you are triple the risk in a bad one.

Stan

[stansd]

Said another way: The prudent are now being rewarded, while the profligate are being punished. As it should be. If you were a credit risk in a good economy, which many of these folks were, you are triple the risk in a bad one.

Stan

[stansd]

Said another way: The prudent are now being rewarded, while the profligate are being punished. As it should be. If you were a credit risk in a good economy, which many of these folks were, you are triple the risk in a bad one.

Stan

[stansd]

Said another way: The prudent are now being rewarded, while the profligate are being punished. As it should be. If you were a credit risk in a good economy, which many of these folks were, you are triple the risk in a bad one.

Stan

[stansd]

Said another way: The prudent are now being rewarded, while the profligate are being punished. As it should be. If you were a credit risk in a good economy, which many of these folks were, you are triple the risk in a bad one.

Stan

[stansd]

Thesis: 2009 will be a bad year. It will be worse than the mainstream media predicts, but not as bad as the doomsayers fear. The big story that we’ll be discussing next year is how dire the long term impact of what the government does in 2009 (somewhat similar to 2008).

Other stories will be:
1. Retail bankruptcies
2. Collapse of commercial real estate similar to what we saw in residential this year (many, many defaults).
3. Consumer price inflation in the offing.
4. This one is big: The world will begin to question the ability of the U.S. government to repay it’s debts. The balooning debt coupled with the desire to roll short term bonds due into long term and a lessened desire to fund the U.S. deficit (default risk and dollar devaluation) will lead to a huge leap in long term T Bond yields.

Specific Predictions:
30 Yr T-Bond yield 5% (Today 2.8%)
Inflation (Q4 CPI) 3% (Today 1.1%-Nov)
Yr-Yr GDP growth -6% (2008 1.3%)
30 year mortgage rates 7%
National Unemployment 9% (Today 6.7%)
CA Unemployment 11% (Today 8.4%)
Euro $1.60/Euro (Today 1.40)
Yen 95 Yen/$ (Today 90)
Price of oil $40 (Today $46)
SD House prices down 10% in 2009 (composite Case Schiller)
Sears goes bankrupt
Dow at 8000

[stansd]

Thesis: 2009 will be a bad year. It will be worse than the mainstream media predicts, but not as bad as the doomsayers fear. The big story that we’ll be discussing next year is how dire the long term impact of what the government does in 2009 (somewhat similar to 2008).

Other stories will be:
1. Retail bankruptcies
2. Collapse of commercial real estate similar to what we saw in residential this year (many, many defaults).
3. Consumer price inflation in the offing.
4. This one is big: The world will begin to question the ability of the U.S. government to repay it’s debts. The balooning debt coupled with the desire to roll short term bonds due into long term and a lessened desire to fund the U.S. deficit (default risk and dollar devaluation) will lead to a huge leap in long term T Bond yields.

Specific Predictions:
30 Yr T-Bond yield 5% (Today 2.8%)
Inflation (Q4 CPI) 3% (Today 1.1%-Nov)
Yr-Yr GDP growth -6% (2008 1.3%)
30 year mortgage rates 7%
National Unemployment 9% (Today 6.7%)
CA Unemployment 11% (Today 8.4%)
Euro $1.60/Euro (Today 1.40)
Yen 95 Yen/$ (Today 90)
Price of oil $40 (Today $46)
SD House prices down 10% in 2009 (composite Case Schiller)
Sears goes bankrupt
Dow at 8000

[stansd]

Thesis: 2009 will be a bad year. It will be worse than the mainstream media predicts, but not as bad as the doomsayers fear. The big story that we’ll be discussing next year is how dire the long term impact of what the government does in 2009 (somewhat similar to 2008).

Other stories will be:
1. Retail bankruptcies
2. Collapse of commercial real estate similar to what we saw in residential this year (many, many defaults).
3. Consumer price inflation in the offing.
4. This one is big: The world will begin to question the ability of the U.S. government to repay it’s debts. The balooning debt coupled with the desire to roll short term bonds due into long term and a lessened desire to fund the U.S. deficit (default risk and dollar devaluation) will lead to a huge leap in long term T Bond yields.

Specific Predictions:
30 Yr T-Bond yield 5% (Today 2.8%)
Inflation (Q4 CPI) 3% (Today 1.1%-Nov)
Yr-Yr GDP growth -6% (2008 1.3%)
30 year mortgage rates 7%
National Unemployment 9% (Today 6.7%)
CA Unemployment 11% (Today 8.4%)
Euro $1.60/Euro (Today 1.40)
Yen 95 Yen/$ (Today 90)
Price of oil $40 (Today $46)
SD House prices down 10% in 2009 (composite Case Schiller)
Sears goes bankrupt
Dow at 8000

[stansd]

Thesis: 2009 will be a bad year. It will be worse than the mainstream media predicts, but not as bad as the doomsayers fear. The big story that we’ll be discussing next year is how dire the long term impact of what the government does in 2009 (somewhat similar to 2008).

Other stories will be:
1. Retail bankruptcies
2. Collapse of commercial real estate similar to what we saw in residential this year (many, many defaults).
3. Consumer price inflation in the offing.
4. This one is big: The world will begin to question the ability of the U.S. government to repay it’s debts. The balooning debt coupled with the desire to roll short term bonds due into long term and a lessened desire to fund the U.S. deficit (default risk and dollar devaluation) will lead to a huge leap in long term T Bond yields.

Specific Predictions:
30 Yr T-Bond yield 5% (Today 2.8%)
Inflation (Q4 CPI) 3% (Today 1.1%-Nov)
Yr-Yr GDP growth -6% (2008 1.3%)
30 year mortgage rates 7%
National Unemployment 9% (Today 6.7%)
CA Unemployment 11% (Today 8.4%)
Euro $1.60/Euro (Today 1.40)
Yen 95 Yen/$ (Today 90)
Price of oil $40 (Today $46)
SD House prices down 10% in 2009 (composite Case Schiller)
Sears goes bankrupt
Dow at 8000

[stansd]

Thesis: 2009 will be a bad year. It will be worse than the mainstream media predicts, but not as bad as the doomsayers fear. The big story that we’ll be discussing next year is how dire the long term impact of what the government does in 2009 (somewhat similar to 2008).

Other stories will be:
1. Retail bankruptcies
2. Collapse of commercial real estate similar to what we saw in residential this year (many, many defaults).
3. Consumer price inflation in the offing.
4. This one is big: The world will begin to question the ability of the U.S. government to repay it’s debts. The balooning debt coupled with the desire to roll short term bonds due into long term and a lessened desire to fund the U.S. deficit (default risk and dollar devaluation) will lead to a huge leap in long term T Bond yields.

Specific Predictions:
30 Yr T-Bond yield 5% (Today 2.8%)
Inflation (Q4 CPI) 3% (Today 1.1%-Nov)
Yr-Yr GDP growth -6% (2008 1.3%)
30 year mortgage rates 7%
National Unemployment 9% (Today 6.7%)
CA Unemployment 11% (Today 8.4%)
Euro $1.60/Euro (Today 1.40)
Yen 95 Yen/$ (Today 90)
Price of oil $40 (Today $46)
SD House prices down 10% in 2009 (composite Case Schiller)
Sears goes bankrupt
Dow at 8000

[stansd]

Here’s my own assessment for myself (I like writing this down to hold myself accountable). I got the direction of most things right, but was only about 1/2 way there on magnitude. I certainly didn’t anticipate the amount of financial dislocation from the crisis, though the personal impact I did anticipate…looking forward to 2009. Wishing I would have traded more on my own predictions: Experience has told me I’m not as good as I think I am, however, so I tread cautiously.

I am short T Bonds right now…we’ll see how that goes. Inflation is my big bet this year along with CA bailout…still thinking though the rest.

Yes, I’m posting this on new year’s eve-kids have killed my partying days, and my great bottle of champagne in the fridge will likely go unopened:)

Last Year:
Prediction: San Diego Housing Market drops 15%.

Actual: -27%

Prediction: Fed lowers interest rates to 3% by year end.

Actual: 0% to 0.25% (Started at 4.5%)

Prediction: Recession is officially declared, but interest rate cuts cause the dollar to fall further and CPI inflation goes over 4%.

Actual: Recession declared, dollar fell for most of the year, but rose in the end except vs. the yen, but CPI stayed mute in the end at 1.1%

Prediction: The Euro hits $1.45, the Yen hits 100/$, and gas goes over $4.00 per gallon.

Actual: Euro hit mid 1.20’s. Euro ended the year at 1.40 (Started year at 1.47), and Yen at 90 (Started year at 110). Gas definitely went over $4.00 per gallon (started the year around $3.20), but eventually came back down to where it is now.

Stock Market Drops 20% from 2007 End.

Actual: DJIA down 34%, S&P 39%

John McCain beats Obama in the national election as republicans flock to him in masse, and Obama’s inexperience pulls enough independents into the McCain camp. If Bloomberg enters a three way race, Obama wins.

Actual: I got the final candidates right, but the winner wrong. Obama didn’t make any big mistakes: I thought he would.

Foreclosures skyrocket, social acceptability of walking jingle mail is cemented, and banks start to voluntarily write loans down and freeze interest rates rather than foreclose.

Actual: Foreclosures up 300-400%, jingle mail not quite cemented, banks not quite voluntarily writing down loans yet

Unemployment hits 6%, and $50K in the bank becomes as fashionable as a hummer was 2 years ago.

Unemployment at 6.7% starting from 4.9%. $50K in the bank more fashionable now than a hummer was 2 years ago.

Stan

[stansd]

Here’s my own assessment for myself (I like writing this down to hold myself accountable). I got the direction of most things right, but was only about 1/2 way there on magnitude. I certainly didn’t anticipate the amount of financial dislocation from the crisis, though the personal impact I did anticipate…looking forward to 2009. Wishing I would have traded more on my own predictions: Experience has told me I’m not as good as I think I am, however, so I tread cautiously.

I am short T Bonds right now…we’ll see how that goes. Inflation is my big bet this year along with CA bailout…still thinking though the rest.

Yes, I’m posting this on new year’s eve-kids have killed my partying days, and my great bottle of champagne in the fridge will likely go unopened:)

Last Year:
Prediction: San Diego Housing Market drops 15%.

Actual: -27%

Prediction: Fed lowers interest rates to 3% by year end.

Actual: 0% to 0.25% (Started at 4.5%)

Prediction: Recession is officially declared, but interest rate cuts cause the dollar to fall further and CPI inflation goes over 4%.

Actual: Recession declared, dollar fell for most of the year, but rose in the end except vs. the yen, but CPI stayed mute in the end at 1.1%

Prediction: The Euro hits $1.45, the Yen hits 100/$, and gas goes over $4.00 per gallon.

Actual: Euro hit mid 1.20’s. Euro ended the year at 1.40 (Started year at 1.47), and Yen at 90 (Started year at 110). Gas definitely went over $4.00 per gallon (started the year around $3.20), but eventually came back down to where it is now.

Stock Market Drops 20% from 2007 End.

Actual: DJIA down 34%, S&P 39%

John McCain beats Obama in the national election as republicans flock to him in masse, and Obama’s inexperience pulls enough independents into the McCain camp. If Bloomberg enters a three way race, Obama wins.

Actual: I got the final candidates right, but the winner wrong. Obama didn’t make any big mistakes: I thought he would.

Foreclosures skyrocket, social acceptability of walking jingle mail is cemented, and banks start to voluntarily write loans down and freeze interest rates rather than foreclose.

Actual: Foreclosures up 300-400%, jingle mail not quite cemented, banks not quite voluntarily writing down loans yet

Unemployment hits 6%, and $50K in the bank becomes as fashionable as a hummer was 2 years ago.

Unemployment at 6.7% starting from 4.9%. $50K in the bank more fashionable now than a hummer was 2 years ago.

Stan

[stansd]

Here’s my own assessment for myself (I like writing this down to hold myself accountable). I got the direction of most things right, but was only about 1/2 way there on magnitude. I certainly didn’t anticipate the amount of financial dislocation from the crisis, though the personal impact I did anticipate…looking forward to 2009. Wishing I would have traded more on my own predictions: Experience has told me I’m not as good as I think I am, however, so I tread cautiously.

I am short T Bonds right now…we’ll see how that goes. Inflation is my big bet this year along with CA bailout…still thinking though the rest.

Yes, I’m posting this on new year’s eve-kids have killed my partying days, and my great bottle of champagne in the fridge will likely go unopened:)

Last Year:
Prediction: San Diego Housing Market drops 15%.

Actual: -27%

Prediction: Fed lowers interest rates to 3% by year end.

Actual: 0% to 0.25% (Started at 4.5%)

Prediction: Recession is officially declared, but interest rate cuts cause the dollar to fall further and CPI inflation goes over 4%.

Actual: Recession declared, dollar fell for most of the year, but rose in the end except vs. the yen, but CPI stayed mute in the end at 1.1%

Prediction: The Euro hits $1.45, the Yen hits 100/$, and gas goes over $4.00 per gallon.

Actual: Euro hit mid 1.20’s. Euro ended the year at 1.40 (Started year at 1.47), and Yen at 90 (Started year at 110). Gas definitely went over $4.00 per gallon (started the year around $3.20), but eventually came back down to where it is now.

Stock Market Drops 20% from 2007 End.

Actual: DJIA down 34%, S&P 39%

John McCain beats Obama in the national election as republicans flock to him in masse, and Obama’s inexperience pulls enough independents into the McCain camp. If Bloomberg enters a three way race, Obama wins.

Actual: I got the final candidates right, but the winner wrong. Obama didn’t make any big mistakes: I thought he would.

Foreclosures skyrocket, social acceptability of walking jingle mail is cemented, and banks start to voluntarily write loans down and freeze interest rates rather than foreclose.

Actual: Foreclosures up 300-400%, jingle mail not quite cemented, banks not quite voluntarily writing down loans yet

Unemployment hits 6%, and $50K in the bank becomes as fashionable as a hummer was 2 years ago.

Unemployment at 6.7% starting from 4.9%. $50K in the bank more fashionable now than a hummer was 2 years ago.

Stan

[stansd]

Here’s my own assessment for myself (I like writing this down to hold myself accountable). I got the direction of most things right, but was only about 1/2 way there on magnitude. I certainly didn’t anticipate the amount of financial dislocation from the crisis, though the personal impact I did anticipate…looking forward to 2009. Wishing I would have traded more on my own predictions: Experience has told me I’m not as good as I think I am, however, so I tread cautiously.

I am short T Bonds right now…we’ll see how that goes. Inflation is my big bet this year along with CA bailout…still thinking though the rest.

Yes, I’m posting this on new year’s eve-kids have killed my partying days, and my great bottle of champagne in the fridge will likely go unopened:)

Last Year:
Prediction: San Diego Housing Market drops 15%.

Actual: -27%

Prediction: Fed lowers interest rates to 3% by year end.

Actual: 0% to 0.25% (Started at 4.5%)

Prediction: Recession is officially declared, but interest rate cuts cause the dollar to fall further and CPI inflation goes over 4%.

Actual: Recession declared, dollar fell for most of the year, but rose in the end except vs. the yen, but CPI stayed mute in the end at 1.1%

Prediction: The Euro hits $1.45, the Yen hits 100/$, and gas goes over $4.00 per gallon.

Actual: Euro hit mid 1.20’s. Euro ended the year at 1.40 (Started year at 1.47), and Yen at 90 (Started year at 110). Gas definitely went over $4.00 per gallon (started the year around $3.20), but eventually came back down to where it is now.

Stock Market Drops 20% from 2007 End.

Actual: DJIA down 34%, S&P 39%

John McCain beats Obama in the national election as republicans flock to him in masse, and Obama’s inexperience pulls enough independents into the McCain camp. If Bloomberg enters a three way race, Obama wins.

Actual: I got the final candidates right, but the winner wrong. Obama didn’t make any big mistakes: I thought he would.

Foreclosures skyrocket, social acceptability of walking jingle mail is cemented, and banks start to voluntarily write loans down and freeze interest rates rather than foreclose.

Actual: Foreclosures up 300-400%, jingle mail not quite cemented, banks not quite voluntarily writing down loans yet

Unemployment hits 6%, and $50K in the bank becomes as fashionable as a hummer was 2 years ago.

Unemployment at 6.7% starting from 4.9%. $50K in the bank more fashionable now than a hummer was 2 years ago.

Stan

[stansd]

Here’s my own assessment for myself (I like writing this down to hold myself accountable). I got the direction of most things right, but was only about 1/2 way there on magnitude. I certainly didn’t anticipate the amount of financial dislocation from the crisis, though the personal impact I did anticipate…looking forward to 2009. Wishing I would have traded more on my own predictions: Experience has told me I’m not as good as I think I am, however, so I tread cautiously.

I am short T Bonds right now…we’ll see how that goes. Inflation is my big bet this year along with CA bailout…still thinking though the rest.

Yes, I’m posting this on new year’s eve-kids have killed my partying days, and my great bottle of champagne in the fridge will likely go unopened:)

Last Year:
Prediction: San Diego Housing Market drops 15%.

Actual: -27%

Prediction: Fed lowers interest rates to 3% by year end.

Actual: 0% to 0.25% (Started at 4.5%)

Prediction: Recession is officially declared, but interest rate cuts cause the dollar to fall further and CPI inflation goes over 4%.

Actual: Recession declared, dollar fell for most of the year, but rose in the end except vs. the yen, but CPI stayed mute in the end at 1.1%

Prediction: The Euro hits $1.45, the Yen hits 100/$, and gas goes over $4.00 per gallon.

Actual: Euro hit mid 1.20’s. Euro ended the year at 1.40 (Started year at 1.47), and Yen at 90 (Started year at 110). Gas definitely went over $4.00 per gallon (started the year around $3.20), but eventually came back down to where it is now.

Stock Market Drops 20% from 2007 End.

Actual: DJIA down 34%, S&P 39%

John McCain beats Obama in the national election as republicans flock to him in masse, and Obama’s inexperience pulls enough independents into the McCain camp. If Bloomberg enters a three way race, Obama wins.

Actual: I got the final candidates right, but the winner wrong. Obama didn’t make any big mistakes: I thought he would.

Foreclosures skyrocket, social acceptability of walking jingle mail is cemented, and banks start to voluntarily write loans down and freeze interest rates rather than foreclose.

Actual: Foreclosures up 300-400%, jingle mail not quite cemented, banks not quite voluntarily writing down loans yet

Unemployment hits 6%, and $50K in the bank becomes as fashionable as a hummer was 2 years ago.

Unemployment at 6.7% starting from 4.9%. $50K in the bank more fashionable now than a hummer was 2 years ago.

Stan

[Author]

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