[stansd]

Alex,

I am neither a flipper, nor a big corporation. I’ll sell you my house at double market value…that way you’ll have a clean conscience.

Stan

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Agree…though I feel like I’m finally seeing chinks in the armor of the inert.

I’ve got a strong feeling that the San Diego market will move down around 10% in the next 4 months. My sample size is small, but I’m watching absolutely everything in my middle class Rancho Bernardo neighborhood absolutely sit. Price reductions are big as well. Prices are dropping, but places only sell after they’ve sat for 4-5 months and the prices come down 50-80K on 5-600K houses.

In my immediate neighborhood, I think things are already down 10% in the last 6 months.

There are several houses that are really nice, but 30-40K overpriced (today’s market, not intrinsic value) and not budging.

Stan

[stansd]

Agree…though I feel like I’m finally seeing chinks in the armor of the inert.

I’ve got a strong feeling that the San Diego market will move down around 10% in the next 4 months. My sample size is small, but I’m watching absolutely everything in my middle class Rancho Bernardo neighborhood absolutely sit. Price reductions are big as well. Prices are dropping, but places only sell after they’ve sat for 4-5 months and the prices come down 50-80K on 5-600K houses.

In my immediate neighborhood, I think things are already down 10% in the last 6 months.

There are several houses that are really nice, but 30-40K overpriced (today’s market, not intrinsic value) and not budging.

Stan

[stansd]

Your scenario proposes that the market stays in a perpetual state of disequilibrium, which cannot happen…that’s the reason people don’t understand your question.

My answer: builders would go belly up because they wouldn’t have cash to service their debt…BK ensues and large scale auctions of new homes, partially built homes, and graded land begin in earnest.

Banks start to experience financial difficulty because investors get grumpy about all the assets sitting on their balance sheet consuming cash and screaming opportunity cost.

Sellers get desperate because their houses are sitting vacant for months, or they can’t meet their newly minted ARM adjusted payments.

J6P starts to save so he can afford a home someday.

Or, lenders get creative and start offering creative products that have lower payments in exchange for a share of appreciation on sale.

That’s the pure answer to your question…reality is that each of those scenarios will further pressure prices, so it won’t persist for long.

Stan

[stansd]

Your scenario proposes that the market stays in a perpetual state of disequilibrium, which cannot happen…that’s the reason people don’t understand your question.

My answer: builders would go belly up because they wouldn’t have cash to service their debt…BK ensues and large scale auctions of new homes, partially built homes, and graded land begin in earnest.

Banks start to experience financial difficulty because investors get grumpy about all the assets sitting on their balance sheet consuming cash and screaming opportunity cost.

Sellers get desperate because their houses are sitting vacant for months, or they can’t meet their newly minted ARM adjusted payments.

J6P starts to save so he can afford a home someday.

Or, lenders get creative and start offering creative products that have lower payments in exchange for a share of appreciation on sale.

That’s the pure answer to your question…reality is that each of those scenarios will further pressure prices, so it won’t persist for long.

Stan

[stansd]

Your scenario proposes that the market stays in a perpetual state of disequilibrium, which cannot happen…that’s the reason people don’t understand your question.

My answer: builders would go belly up because they wouldn’t have cash to service their debt…BK ensues and large scale auctions of new homes, partially built homes, and graded land begin in earnest.

Banks start to experience financial difficulty because investors get grumpy about all the assets sitting on their balance sheet consuming cash and screaming opportunity cost.

Sellers get desperate because their houses are sitting vacant for months, or they can’t meet their newly minted ARM adjusted payments.

J6P starts to save so he can afford a home someday.

Or, lenders get creative and start offering creative products that have lower payments in exchange for a share of appreciation on sale.

That’s the pure answer to your question…reality is that each of those scenarios will further pressure prices, so it won’t persist for long.

Stan

[stansd]

Your scenario proposes that the market stays in a perpetual state of disequilibrium, which cannot happen…that’s the reason people don’t understand your question.

My answer: builders would go belly up because they wouldn’t have cash to service their debt…BK ensues and large scale auctions of new homes, partially built homes, and graded land begin in earnest.

Banks start to experience financial difficulty because investors get grumpy about all the assets sitting on their balance sheet consuming cash and screaming opportunity cost.

Sellers get desperate because their houses are sitting vacant for months, or they can’t meet their newly minted ARM adjusted payments.

J6P starts to save so he can afford a home someday.

Or, lenders get creative and start offering creative products that have lower payments in exchange for a share of appreciation on sale.

That’s the pure answer to your question…reality is that each of those scenarios will further pressure prices, so it won’t persist for long.

Stan

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I once had the priviledge of meeting Rahm Emanuel and spending an hour or so with him in a small group setting. Struck me as an arrogant prick.

Stan

[stansd]

I once had the priviledge of meeting Rahm Emanuel and spending an hour or so with him in a small group setting. Struck me as an arrogant prick.

Stan

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SDR,

I don’t think it’s unusual in this market, but in a market where prices are not in a freefall, would you expect anything like that? I just saw it as an indication that prices are working their way down.

on the 3,000 ft house for those prices question…that’s a lot of depreciation…I’m not sure I see that in the cards, but I’m not as bearish as some.

I know several people who own those types of houses…plenty of money there, and those folks don’t even look elsewhere when they work in RB.

Stan

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Man are we off topic now…look at this site before you read anything with the title baby wise by Gary Ezzo.

http://www.ezzo.info/

I won’t bore you with all the details, but there is some history between Ezzo and members of my family.

The guy is a crackpot narcissist who has lied about his credentials, and been excommunicated from a couple churches.

You can keep your baby quiet by locking it in a closet as well…that doesn’t make it right….no, my daughter doesn’t sleep 6-7 hours at night, and I sure would like it if she did…that said, we are doing what’s best for her, and not for us.

I’m not in any way suggesting that anyone who has followed baby wise is a bad parent. I am suggesting that some of it’s method’s are poorly thought through, sometimes at odds with medical science, and sometimes outright dangerous.

Stan

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I’m wondering, though if it sold for more than asking…that’s a really cheap price for that size in that area. Will be interesting to see.

Stan

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Detail on the 150K below…it’s gone pending…was initially overpriced, new listing was priced to sell for sure.

List does contain repeated drops, so it does overstate some…even with that caveat, I continue to be amazed at how many drops versus listings there are.

SF Detached Status: Pending LP: $525,000 – $575,876 REF #: 6
MLS #: 076057362 OLP: $700,876
Media: 13 – V.T.
Address: 17268 BERNARDO OAKS DR. Close of Escrow:
Subdivision: Greens
City: San Diego Zip : 92128-
Cross Street: Rancho Bernardo Community: RANCHO BERNARDO
Map Code: 1170B2 MT: 80 AMT: 80 LD: 7/17/2007
Directions To Property: Rancho Bernardo Rd;North on Bernardo Oaks Dr.

General Information

Bedrooms: 3 View: Golf Course
Optional BR: Exterior: Wood/Stucco
Baths: 2 Floors: Slab
Est SqFt: 2,083 Heat: Forced Air
Year Built: 1964 Cooling: Central Forced Air
Stories: 1 Story Pool: Community
Lot SqFt: 8200 Lot Size: Up to & Inc .25 Acres
Source of SqFt: Assessor Record Sewer: Sewer Connected
Ownership: Fee Simple School District: PUSD
Roof: Tile Age Restriction: N/K
Acres: 0.1882 Water: Meter on Property
Zoning: R1 Topography: Level
APN: 273-220-08-00 Pets: Yes
Fireplace: FP in Living Room

Remarks

Seller will entertain offers between $525,000-$575,876. Fantastic golf course location w/ beautiful views & gorgeous new upgrades throughout from floor to ceiling including travertine flooring, granite & tumbled stone counters, maple cabinets, decorator paint, new carpet & more! Best value in the neighborhood!

Rooms Information

Living Room: 22×14 Dining Room: 17×12 Family Room: 26×18 Kitchen: 13×9 Extra Room: –
Master Bed: 15×13 Bedroom 2: 14×12 Bedroom 3: 14×10 Bedroom 4: – Bedroom 5: –

Additional Features

Add Land Use: N/K Parking: 2 Car Garage
Boat Facilities: N/K Security: N/K
Guest House: N/K Patio: Covered, Stone/Tile
Frontage: Golf Course Spa: Community
Laundry: Garage Telecom: Cable
Irrigation: Sprinklers
Complex Features: N/K
Equipment: Dishwasher, Disposal, Garage Door Opener, Microwave, Range/Oven

Assessments and Fees

Assessments: School, Other/Remarks Mello-Roos: 0/N/K
H.O. Fee: 0/N/K HOF Includes: N/K
Other Fee: 348/Annual Type of OF: Club Fees

Stan

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Update

20 New listings
30 price reductions

Average reduction 41,000, median reduction 43,000.

In my immediate neighborhood, there are now 5 listings, 4 of which have been on the market for at least 90 days.

I remain convinced that Case Shiller is really going to start to dip in the next couple of months.

Reduction Amounts:
55,000
30,000
25,000
30,000
60,000
7,000
10,000
30,000
20,000
50,000
30,000
50,000
50,000
20,000
10,000
40,000
50,000
50,000
55,000
52,000
25,000
45,000
50,000
20,000
45,000
150,000
60,000
30,000
45,000
25,000

[stansd]

I’ve thought for some time it would be cool to have a spreadsheet somehow hosted on this site, or somewhere else with a link here that would have a lot of the pertinent data we all care about: median prices, prices/sqare foot, NOD’s/NOT’s, average mortgage rates, etc.

I’m ambitious enough to set a format up with the data suggestions of others. I’m not ambitous enough to populate it by myself.

If there was a quorum that would volunteer to help populate such a thing, and possibly and idea on how it could be hosted and edited like an excel wiki, I’d be game to do a little work.

Another idea would be a wiki style page with links to good data sources: foreclosure forum, fed reserve data, bankrate.com, etc.

Stan

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