[stansd]

Question for all:

I live smack dab in the middle of RB. While the number of homes burned isn’t very significant in the county overall, it is very significant where I am and where I would like to buy someday.

My assumption: Many won’t wait to rebuild-they will purchase another house now, rebuild, and then sell the rebuilt house. Or, they will pay off the mortgage and sell the lot. I think an empty lot in the middle of RB where you can custom build your house is more appealing than some think.

So, my assumption is that this provides support for prices in the near term, with a possibly depressing impact as the rebuilt houses come back online. My rental contract is up in March, and I am likely screwed on that front as well since competition just increased 5-fold.

Fire Away at the above.

Stan

[stansd]

Question for all:

I live smack dab in the middle of RB. While the number of homes burned isn’t very significant in the county overall, it is very significant where I am and where I would like to buy someday.

My assumption: Many won’t wait to rebuild-they will purchase another house now, rebuild, and then sell the rebuilt house. Or, they will pay off the mortgage and sell the lot. I think an empty lot in the middle of RB where you can custom build your house is more appealing than some think.

So, my assumption is that this provides support for prices in the near term, with a possibly depressing impact as the rebuilt houses come back online. My rental contract is up in March, and I am likely screwed on that front as well since competition just increased 5-fold.

Fire Away at the above.

Stan

[stansd]

I’m in RB and we haven’t been evacuated yet, but really thick smoke isn’t far away. This is really bad. We have friends in westwood who are pretty sure their house has burned.

If this is as bad as I think it is, this will save the SD housing market for the next year or two….lots of buyers with money about to enter the market.

Stan

[stansd]

I’m in RB and we haven’t been evacuated yet, but really thick smoke isn’t far away. This is really bad. We have friends in westwood who are pretty sure their house has burned.

If this is as bad as I think it is, this will save the SD housing market for the next year or two….lots of buyers with money about to enter the market.

Stan

[stansd]

40% international stocks
30% Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS)
10% US Stocks
20% in the money options in the company I work for (High Tech).

Stan

[stansd]

40% international stocks
30% Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS)
10% US Stocks
20% in the money options in the company I work for (High Tech).

Stan

[stansd]

Dave,

I’m keenly interested in the way you structured your transaction to protect from the downside…that’s the type of thing that really could remove some friction in the market, especially in the current environment. Heck, I’d buy now if someone would protect me from the downside in exchange for receiving any upside in the next 5 years.

If you are willing to share some details, I’d love to see them.

Stan

[stansd]

Dave,

I’m keenly interested in the way you structured your transaction to protect from the downside…that’s the type of thing that really could remove some friction in the market, especially in the current environment. Heck, I’d buy now if someone would protect me from the downside in exchange for receiving any upside in the next 5 years.

If you are willing to share some details, I’d love to see them.

Stan

[stansd]

If Ben lowers rates again at the next meeting, he will have official earned his monniker.

Stan

[stansd]

If Ben lowers rates again at the next meeting, he will have official earned his monniker.

Stan

[stansd]

This is probably a rookie question, but is there no way to call the bluff of a so called offer that doesn’t exist? Is there anyway to get them to put that fact in writing, or something of the sort to verify it?

I’ve heard so many stories about this happening-it’s a classic case of assymetric information, and usually when that’s the case, there is enough of an incentive for someone who isn’t bluffing to come up with the goods to demonstrate they are being truthful.

Stan

[stansd]

This is probably a rookie question, but is there no way to call the bluff of a so called offer that doesn’t exist? Is there anyway to get them to put that fact in writing, or something of the sort to verify it?

I’ve heard so many stories about this happening-it’s a classic case of assymetric information, and usually when that’s the case, there is enough of an incentive for someone who isn’t bluffing to come up with the goods to demonstrate they are being truthful.

Stan

[stansd]

Great analysis, Dave…largely agree.

One thing I think we forget on this board (not pointed at you, but in generaL): Just as wealth is not actually created with layers upon layers of financial complexity, neither is it destroyed. It is true that there was a lot of risky lending going on and that defaults are going to get worse. That said, the losses are really only as big as the defaults and expenses to process defaults (think REO) and the folks ultimately owning those losses.

All the leverage piled on top is really a “this hedge fund wins, that one loses scenario”. I’m a huge housing bear, but I really do believe much of this is a liquidity issue as anything else.

I’d say bears and bulls are both correct. Bears are right in pointing out that this is much bigger than people think. Bulls are correct in that this isn’t an economy shattering event.

Where things really go south is there you add the housing market to the LBO craze to the madness going on in emerging markets investments to the unsustainable consumer spending in this country, and all the other derivatives of these problems…That is a crisis, but it takes a much broader perspective than the impact of SIV losses to get there.

Stan

[stansd]

Great analysis, Dave…largely agree.

One thing I think we forget on this board (not pointed at you, but in generaL): Just as wealth is not actually created with layers upon layers of financial complexity, neither is it destroyed. It is true that there was a lot of risky lending going on and that defaults are going to get worse. That said, the losses are really only as big as the defaults and expenses to process defaults (think REO) and the folks ultimately owning those losses.

All the leverage piled on top is really a “this hedge fund wins, that one loses scenario”. I’m a huge housing bear, but I really do believe much of this is a liquidity issue as anything else.

I’d say bears and bulls are both correct. Bears are right in pointing out that this is much bigger than people think. Bulls are correct in that this isn’t an economy shattering event.

Where things really go south is there you add the housing market to the LBO craze to the madness going on in emerging markets investments to the unsustainable consumer spending in this country, and all the other derivatives of these problems…That is a crisis, but it takes a much broader perspective than the impact of SIV losses to get there.

Stan

[stansd]

Alex,

I am neither a flipper, nor a big corporation. I’ll sell you my house at double market value…that way you’ll have a clean conscience.

Stan

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