[stansd]

I’m no CDS expert, but I suspect any IB worth its salt wasn’t taking hug positions in CDS’s, but offsetting them with other instruments or offsetting positions, so, the unwinding will be painful, but it isn’t global financial collapse the 2-4 session today failing notwithstanding.

Stan

[stansd]

I’m no CDS expert, but I suspect any IB worth its salt wasn’t taking hug positions in CDS’s, but offsetting them with other instruments or offsetting positions, so, the unwinding will be painful, but it isn’t global financial collapse the 2-4 session today failing notwithstanding.

Stan

[stansd]

I’m no CDS expert, but I suspect any IB worth its salt wasn’t taking hug positions in CDS’s, but offsetting them with other instruments or offsetting positions, so, the unwinding will be painful, but it isn’t global financial collapse the 2-4 session today failing notwithstanding.

Stan

[stansd]

I’m no CDS expert, but I suspect any IB worth its salt wasn’t taking hug positions in CDS’s, but offsetting them with other instruments or offsetting positions, so, the unwinding will be painful, but it isn’t global financial collapse the 2-4 session today failing notwithstanding.

Stan

[stansd]

I’m no CDS expert, but I suspect any IB worth its salt wasn’t taking hug positions in CDS’s, but offsetting them with other instruments or offsetting positions, so, the unwinding will be painful, but it isn’t global financial collapse the 2-4 session today failing notwithstanding.

Stan

[stansd]

I can tell you as someone who is very close to how companies respond to the current economic forces that this is simply untrue.

The first part of your argument presumpposes that supply is constant and demand is decreasing. The recessions that you use to illustrate your point were demand driven recessions, but you conveniently leave out the 1970’s, which aremuch akin to what we are seeing now (incidently, in a speech in 2004, Bernanke said the 1973 recession was the most severe since the great depression). You can’t discount the commodity cost pressures that are still rippling through the system.

You are correct that it is as simple as supply and demand. I don’t disagree that demand is shifting left, but so is supply. Where I sit, the supply forces are currently stronger than the demand ones, with the net result being increasing prices, not decreasing. That’s not to say demand won’t go far enough into the tank to reverse this, but we aren’t there yet.

Your argument is highly Keynesian with a bit of monetarist flair…don’t forget the S part of the SD equation. I lean Austrian, and am moving further in that direction given what I’ve seen in the last year.

Stan

[stansd]

I can tell you as someone who is very close to how companies respond to the current economic forces that this is simply untrue.

The first part of your argument presumpposes that supply is constant and demand is decreasing. The recessions that you use to illustrate your point were demand driven recessions, but you conveniently leave out the 1970’s, which aremuch akin to what we are seeing now (incidently, in a speech in 2004, Bernanke said the 1973 recession was the most severe since the great depression). You can’t discount the commodity cost pressures that are still rippling through the system.

You are correct that it is as simple as supply and demand. I don’t disagree that demand is shifting left, but so is supply. Where I sit, the supply forces are currently stronger than the demand ones, with the net result being increasing prices, not decreasing. That’s not to say demand won’t go far enough into the tank to reverse this, but we aren’t there yet.

Your argument is highly Keynesian with a bit of monetarist flair…don’t forget the S part of the SD equation. I lean Austrian, and am moving further in that direction given what I’ve seen in the last year.

Stan

[stansd]

I can tell you as someone who is very close to how companies respond to the current economic forces that this is simply untrue.

The first part of your argument presumpposes that supply is constant and demand is decreasing. The recessions that you use to illustrate your point were demand driven recessions, but you conveniently leave out the 1970’s, which aremuch akin to what we are seeing now (incidently, in a speech in 2004, Bernanke said the 1973 recession was the most severe since the great depression). You can’t discount the commodity cost pressures that are still rippling through the system.

You are correct that it is as simple as supply and demand. I don’t disagree that demand is shifting left, but so is supply. Where I sit, the supply forces are currently stronger than the demand ones, with the net result being increasing prices, not decreasing. That’s not to say demand won’t go far enough into the tank to reverse this, but we aren’t there yet.

Your argument is highly Keynesian with a bit of monetarist flair…don’t forget the S part of the SD equation. I lean Austrian, and am moving further in that direction given what I’ve seen in the last year.

Stan

[stansd]

I can tell you as someone who is very close to how companies respond to the current economic forces that this is simply untrue.

The first part of your argument presumpposes that supply is constant and demand is decreasing. The recessions that you use to illustrate your point were demand driven recessions, but you conveniently leave out the 1970’s, which aremuch akin to what we are seeing now (incidently, in a speech in 2004, Bernanke said the 1973 recession was the most severe since the great depression). You can’t discount the commodity cost pressures that are still rippling through the system.

You are correct that it is as simple as supply and demand. I don’t disagree that demand is shifting left, but so is supply. Where I sit, the supply forces are currently stronger than the demand ones, with the net result being increasing prices, not decreasing. That’s not to say demand won’t go far enough into the tank to reverse this, but we aren’t there yet.

Your argument is highly Keynesian with a bit of monetarist flair…don’t forget the S part of the SD equation. I lean Austrian, and am moving further in that direction given what I’ve seen in the last year.

Stan

[stansd]

I can tell you as someone who is very close to how companies respond to the current economic forces that this is simply untrue.

The first part of your argument presumpposes that supply is constant and demand is decreasing. The recessions that you use to illustrate your point were demand driven recessions, but you conveniently leave out the 1970’s, which aremuch akin to what we are seeing now (incidently, in a speech in 2004, Bernanke said the 1973 recession was the most severe since the great depression). You can’t discount the commodity cost pressures that are still rippling through the system.

You are correct that it is as simple as supply and demand. I don’t disagree that demand is shifting left, but so is supply. Where I sit, the supply forces are currently stronger than the demand ones, with the net result being increasing prices, not decreasing. That’s not to say demand won’t go far enough into the tank to reverse this, but we aren’t there yet.

Your argument is highly Keynesian with a bit of monetarist flair…don’t forget the S part of the SD equation. I lean Austrian, and am moving further in that direction given what I’ve seen in the last year.

Stan

[stansd]

My job is financial forecasting. The company I work for is big enough to be a reasonable barometer of world economic markets. The currency trends have mirrored almost perfectly the economic ones-the US went into recession about 6 months ago (regardless of what the BEA says). Europe has gone into the tank in the last few months. The currency movements are predictive for what you will soon see in GDP, and it ain’t going to be pretty on either side of the Atlantic.

That said, this stuff about the dollar falling 50-90% are nonsense…It’s as simple as the old big mac index…A big Mac ain’t going to be 10 times as expensive in China in U.S. dollar terms as it is today. PPP is a powerful force, and you won’t see my salary in yuan being identical to a Chinese assembly line worker any time in my lifetime. I’d be surprised if we don’t see significant dollar depreciation given we’ll have to inflate our way out of debt, but it won’t be of that magnitude.

Stan

[stansd]

My job is financial forecasting. The company I work for is big enough to be a reasonable barometer of world economic markets. The currency trends have mirrored almost perfectly the economic ones-the US went into recession about 6 months ago (regardless of what the BEA says). Europe has gone into the tank in the last few months. The currency movements are predictive for what you will soon see in GDP, and it ain’t going to be pretty on either side of the Atlantic.

That said, this stuff about the dollar falling 50-90% are nonsense…It’s as simple as the old big mac index…A big Mac ain’t going to be 10 times as expensive in China in U.S. dollar terms as it is today. PPP is a powerful force, and you won’t see my salary in yuan being identical to a Chinese assembly line worker any time in my lifetime. I’d be surprised if we don’t see significant dollar depreciation given we’ll have to inflate our way out of debt, but it won’t be of that magnitude.

Stan

[stansd]

My job is financial forecasting. The company I work for is big enough to be a reasonable barometer of world economic markets. The currency trends have mirrored almost perfectly the economic ones-the US went into recession about 6 months ago (regardless of what the BEA says). Europe has gone into the tank in the last few months. The currency movements are predictive for what you will soon see in GDP, and it ain’t going to be pretty on either side of the Atlantic.

That said, this stuff about the dollar falling 50-90% are nonsense…It’s as simple as the old big mac index…A big Mac ain’t going to be 10 times as expensive in China in U.S. dollar terms as it is today. PPP is a powerful force, and you won’t see my salary in yuan being identical to a Chinese assembly line worker any time in my lifetime. I’d be surprised if we don’t see significant dollar depreciation given we’ll have to inflate our way out of debt, but it won’t be of that magnitude.

Stan

[stansd]

My job is financial forecasting. The company I work for is big enough to be a reasonable barometer of world economic markets. The currency trends have mirrored almost perfectly the economic ones-the US went into recession about 6 months ago (regardless of what the BEA says). Europe has gone into the tank in the last few months. The currency movements are predictive for what you will soon see in GDP, and it ain’t going to be pretty on either side of the Atlantic.

That said, this stuff about the dollar falling 50-90% are nonsense…It’s as simple as the old big mac index…A big Mac ain’t going to be 10 times as expensive in China in U.S. dollar terms as it is today. PPP is a powerful force, and you won’t see my salary in yuan being identical to a Chinese assembly line worker any time in my lifetime. I’d be surprised if we don’t see significant dollar depreciation given we’ll have to inflate our way out of debt, but it won’t be of that magnitude.

Stan

[stansd]

My job is financial forecasting. The company I work for is big enough to be a reasonable barometer of world economic markets. The currency trends have mirrored almost perfectly the economic ones-the US went into recession about 6 months ago (regardless of what the BEA says). Europe has gone into the tank in the last few months. The currency movements are predictive for what you will soon see in GDP, and it ain’t going to be pretty on either side of the Atlantic.

That said, this stuff about the dollar falling 50-90% are nonsense…It’s as simple as the old big mac index…A big Mac ain’t going to be 10 times as expensive in China in U.S. dollar terms as it is today. PPP is a powerful force, and you won’t see my salary in yuan being identical to a Chinese assembly line worker any time in my lifetime. I’d be surprised if we don’t see significant dollar depreciation given we’ll have to inflate our way out of debt, but it won’t be of that magnitude.

Stan

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