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sdduuuude
Participant[quote=pri_dk]I never understood why the government is in the extreme gambling business at all.
The lottery is an absurd way to raise revenue.[/quote]
It is an awesome way to raise money if you can pass laws prohibiting anyone else from providing a competing game under the guise of “gambling is immoral”
ParticipantYou can produce a contract from 2008 that says he can’t do that.
ParticipantThere’s always slab city:
http://piggington.com/ot_to_piggs_who_want_to_live_super_cheap_here039s_your_chance
ParticipantI won the lottery !
By that I mean – I didn’t buy any tickets and none of my friends who did buy tickets won a damn thing!
ParticipantQ: Why doesn’t a wealthy person buy every number for $175 million and ensure themselves a $500 million return ?
A: Because if two others get the same idea, then would have three people paying $170 million but they would only win 500/3 = 166.67 million each.
Guaranteed to lose money.
Just an example of how multiple winners changes the odds, and judging by the crazy people in my office and sdr’s mom, there’s gonna be a few more hands in the pot.
Participant[quote=pri_dk]A while back there was a group of quant traders who would monitor the various lotteries around the world and make large bets on certain days, often traveling to other countries, when the expected return was positive.[/quote]
That’s awesome.
Participant[quote=UCGal][quote=Hobie]C-mon. Where else can you pay a buck and buy several days of dreaming? Cheaper than drinking 😉
[/quote]Also some math… Buying 1 ticket improves your odds infinitly. From zero to great than zero.
Buying the 2nd ticket is a suckers bet… but that first ticket gets you in the game.[/quote]Wow. My probability professor just rolled over in his grave and he isn’t even dead yet.
ParticipantAnd if you think the number of players doesn’t increase, consider your own (incorrect) method of determining if it is worth playing and realize that lots of people do the same calculation and decide to play, even if they usually do not.
ParticipantConsidering multiple winners of the same prize is important. When the prize gets bigger, more people play. If the number of people playing doubles, it effectively cuts your expected winnings in half.
Even using the 1/176,000,000 figure, you have to include the probability of sharing the prize in your expected value calculation or it’s a bad calculation.
If your expected value was positive, those running it wouldn’t be able to make any money, now would they ?
ParticipantWhy is it not possible for the amenities associated with a city center to move out to the suburbs ?
I consider Carmel Valley a suburb, but someone below said it has everything you need right there.
Suburbs may change, but I’m not so sure they are going away forever.
Maybe distant bedroom-only communities.
ParticipantI know the walls can be plaster, which is a pain if you need to run electrical, hang paintings, etc.
Makes you appreciate drywall.
ParticipantI know you said “no italian or asian” but …
Favorite hole-in-the-wall: House of Nan-king.
CDMA Eng likes this place. It’s not really American-Italian. It’s Italian. You’ll like it.
http://cafetiramisu.com/The soup in sf sourdogh bowls is pretty nice. That fresh sourdough bread is awesome – something they probably don’t have in HK.
Fresh whole crab that you crack yourself is always fun, too.
Check out the web site for TV shows called “THe Best Thing I ever Ate.” I’m sure they’ll have lots of suggestions for good stops on a progressive dinner.
Also, somebody made a web site that maps all the places from “Diners, Drive-ins and Dives.” which is chock-full of interesting eateries.
ParticipantI’d suggest a progressive dinner in SF. It’s the perfect place to do so.
A progressive dinner is where you have appetizer, main-course, and dessert at three different places. Make sure they are well-known for something in that category.
If you like, add a pre-dinner drink course and find a wine-bar or cocktail lounge before appetizers.
SF is a great place for this because you can make a nice, walkable progressive dinner.
This way you can mix it up a bit – go to a dive for appetizers and a nice place for dinner.
Take an hour for each course so you don’t get full.
I’m not up on all the latest eateries in SF but I know every time I eat there I’m happy I did. Make use of Yelp and opentable.com and you should be in good shape.
If the are looking for serious food, consider a trip to Napa, too. So much serious food there.
I’m not a fan of the Ghirardeli thing. It’s crowded and just a mall where you can get the same chocolate they sell in Costco. The Jelly-belly factory tour in Fairfield, on the other hand, is pretty cool.
Participant[quote=flu]Off topic…but since it was mentioned. And yes, I’m insane.. So apologize for the nutjob question..
Just curious…
Do any of you actually run a monte carlo type simulation on your 9 or so stock market categories and slightly rebalance the percentages accordingly, as some fund managers say one they do and swear by?More importantly, if you do, I’m curious where did you get the the hell did you get your simulator from?
I’m sorry, by I did pretty shitty in probability and stochastic processes class in school[/quote]
Most important thing to know about simulation: There are lots of ways to do it wrong that seem right. Very tricky stuff. Was a focus of mine in under-grad school.
If it ever came to me running Monte-Carlo simulations for the purposes of trading my own money, someone come to my house and just kill me. I could, but I don’t. Would rather have someone else invest my money than take that much of my time using a very employable part of my brain that could be used earning a decent income, or better – playing Wii with the kids.
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