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sdduuuude
ParticipantBy the way, this logic provides some insight into poker as well.
If you are playing 10-handed no-limit hold ’em, for example, and one guy bets, then 8 guys fold pre-flop, and you have a mid-quality hand, you should fold. Even though it comes down to you against him, the fact that he is likely the best of 9 hands makes it very unlikely you have a better starting hand.
However, if there are only 3 players, one guy bets and the other guy folds, you should probably stay in as your maginal hand has a much better chance against the best of 2 random starting hands as opposed to the best of 9 random starting hands.
The act of folding in this case is like the host taking away the door with the goat.
ParticipantBy the way, this logic provides some insight into poker as well.
If you are playing 10-handed no-limit hold ’em, for example, and one guy bets, then 8 guys fold pre-flop, and you have a mid-quality hand, you should fold. Even though it comes down to you against him, the fact that he is likely the best of 9 hands makes it very unlikely you have a better starting hand.
However, if there are only 3 players, one guy bets and the other guy folds, you should probably stay in as your maginal hand has a much better chance against the best of 2 random starting hands as opposed to the best of 9 random starting hands.
The act of folding in this case is like the host taking away the door with the goat.
ParticipantBy the way, this logic provides some insight into poker as well.
If you are playing 10-handed no-limit hold ’em, for example, and one guy bets, then 8 guys fold pre-flop, and you have a mid-quality hand, you should fold. Even though it comes down to you against him, the fact that he is likely the best of 9 hands makes it very unlikely you have a better starting hand.
However, if there are only 3 players, one guy bets and the other guy folds, you should probably stay in as your maginal hand has a much better chance against the best of 2 random starting hands as opposed to the best of 9 random starting hands.
The act of folding in this case is like the host taking away the door with the goat.
ParticipantTo those who don’t realize that switching is the right decision, it is extremely difficult to convince them.
The only way is to simulate it, really. Try the game about 1000 times. Switch half the time and don’t switch the other half. You’ll see you win more often if you switch.
Another way to look at it …
Start with 100 doors. Choose 1 door.
Now – I am going to take away 98 of the 99 remaining doors, with the promise that none of the 98 I eliminate contain the prize.If you play this game a few times, you’ll soon realize that in 1 out of 100 cases, you will chose the right one in the first place, which means that if you switch you will be switching to the prize in 99 out of 100 cases.
I understand people who think it is 50/50 but they are wrong.
ParticipantTo those who don’t realize that switching is the right decision, it is extremely difficult to convince them.
The only way is to simulate it, really. Try the game about 1000 times. Switch half the time and don’t switch the other half. You’ll see you win more often if you switch.
Another way to look at it …
Start with 100 doors. Choose 1 door.
Now – I am going to take away 98 of the 99 remaining doors, with the promise that none of the 98 I eliminate contain the prize.If you play this game a few times, you’ll soon realize that in 1 out of 100 cases, you will chose the right one in the first place, which means that if you switch you will be switching to the prize in 99 out of 100 cases.
I understand people who think it is 50/50 but they are wrong.
ParticipantTo those who don’t realize that switching is the right decision, it is extremely difficult to convince them.
The only way is to simulate it, really. Try the game about 1000 times. Switch half the time and don’t switch the other half. You’ll see you win more often if you switch.
Another way to look at it …
Start with 100 doors. Choose 1 door.
Now – I am going to take away 98 of the 99 remaining doors, with the promise that none of the 98 I eliminate contain the prize.If you play this game a few times, you’ll soon realize that in 1 out of 100 cases, you will chose the right one in the first place, which means that if you switch you will be switching to the prize in 99 out of 100 cases.
I understand people who think it is 50/50 but they are wrong.
ParticipantTo those who don’t realize that switching is the right decision, it is extremely difficult to convince them.
The only way is to simulate it, really. Try the game about 1000 times. Switch half the time and don’t switch the other half. You’ll see you win more often if you switch.
Another way to look at it …
Start with 100 doors. Choose 1 door.
Now – I am going to take away 98 of the 99 remaining doors, with the promise that none of the 98 I eliminate contain the prize.If you play this game a few times, you’ll soon realize that in 1 out of 100 cases, you will chose the right one in the first place, which means that if you switch you will be switching to the prize in 99 out of 100 cases.
I understand people who think it is 50/50 but they are wrong.
ParticipantTo those who don’t realize that switching is the right decision, it is extremely difficult to convince them.
The only way is to simulate it, really. Try the game about 1000 times. Switch half the time and don’t switch the other half. You’ll see you win more often if you switch.
Another way to look at it …
Start with 100 doors. Choose 1 door.
Now – I am going to take away 98 of the 99 remaining doors, with the promise that none of the 98 I eliminate contain the prize.If you play this game a few times, you’ll soon realize that in 1 out of 100 cases, you will chose the right one in the first place, which means that if you switch you will be switching to the prize in 99 out of 100 cases.
I understand people who think it is 50/50 but they are wrong.
July 24, 2008 at 2:41 PM in reply to: Off Topic: “Moon-walker claims alien contact cover-up” #246196ParticipantSorry I’m so late to this thread – couldn’t find my hat and I was out of foil. Had to make a new one from scraps in the freezer. I hope it holds up.
Somehow I knew 4plexowner would be here.
July 24, 2008 at 2:41 PM in reply to: Off Topic: “Moon-walker claims alien contact cover-up” #246347ParticipantSorry I’m so late to this thread – couldn’t find my hat and I was out of foil. Had to make a new one from scraps in the freezer. I hope it holds up.
Somehow I knew 4plexowner would be here.
July 24, 2008 at 2:41 PM in reply to: Off Topic: “Moon-walker claims alien contact cover-up” #246353ParticipantSorry I’m so late to this thread – couldn’t find my hat and I was out of foil. Had to make a new one from scraps in the freezer. I hope it holds up.
Somehow I knew 4plexowner would be here.
July 24, 2008 at 2:41 PM in reply to: Off Topic: “Moon-walker claims alien contact cover-up” #246409ParticipantSorry I’m so late to this thread – couldn’t find my hat and I was out of foil. Had to make a new one from scraps in the freezer. I hope it holds up.
Somehow I knew 4plexowner would be here.
July 24, 2008 at 2:41 PM in reply to: Off Topic: “Moon-walker claims alien contact cover-up” #246415ParticipantSorry I’m so late to this thread – couldn’t find my hat and I was out of foil. Had to make a new one from scraps in the freezer. I hope it holds up.
Somehow I knew 4plexowner would be here.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]
I think I have just found a new strategy for negotiating short sales![/quote]
Oh, crap that’s funny !
Um. And wrong. -
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