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Saying they’ll stop stimulus when the economy improves is like saying “I’ll stop pouring water into this bucket as soon as it’s empty.”

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Saying they’ll stop stimulus when the economy improves is like saying “I’ll stop pouring water into this bucket as soon as it’s empty.”

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Saying they’ll stop stimulus when the economy improves is like saying “I’ll stop pouring water into this bucket as soon as it’s empty.”

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Saying they’ll stop stimulus when the economy improves is like saying “I’ll stop pouring water into this bucket as soon as it’s empty.”

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Judging from Bernanke’s speech today, they don’t know what the hell to do.

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Judging from Bernanke’s speech today, they don’t know what the hell to do.

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Judging from Bernanke’s speech today, they don’t know what the hell to do.

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Judging from Bernanke’s speech today, they don’t know what the hell to do.

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Judging from Bernanke’s speech today, they don’t know what the hell to do.

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[quote=sdcellar][quote=sdrealtor]Tell me again we dont have a large amount of pent up demand building.[/quote]I don’t think anybody denies that pent up demand is out there. Heck, Piggington’s alone is chock full of it. I just question if the number is as high as you’ve put forth. I’ll certainly give you credit for throwing a number at it though![/quote]

Remember, in the first-order, demand is a fuction of price. You can’t say there is or is not pent-up demand unless you specify a price.

As was mentioned earlier, there is pent-up demand for beach houses at $400K, but not at $3M.

I’m sure there is pent-up demand because lots of people are sick of renting or they want to move to the nice neighborhood. But is there pent-up demand at prices much higher than they are today or are people just going to bid at or near the asking price but leave it be if they aren’t the highest bidder ?

i.e. is there really any price pressure or just a bunch of people maybe already aiming higher than they really should be aiming ? I think the stories you provided, though interesting, don’t tell us either way.

I wonder if the end of Fed mortgage purchases at the end of March will A) happen and B) have an effect.

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[quote=sdcellar][quote=sdrealtor]Tell me again we dont have a large amount of pent up demand building.[/quote]I don’t think anybody denies that pent up demand is out there. Heck, Piggington’s alone is chock full of it. I just question if the number is as high as you’ve put forth. I’ll certainly give you credit for throwing a number at it though![/quote]

Remember, in the first-order, demand is a fuction of price. You can’t say there is or is not pent-up demand unless you specify a price.

As was mentioned earlier, there is pent-up demand for beach houses at $400K, but not at $3M.

I’m sure there is pent-up demand because lots of people are sick of renting or they want to move to the nice neighborhood. But is there pent-up demand at prices much higher than they are today or are people just going to bid at or near the asking price but leave it be if they aren’t the highest bidder ?

i.e. is there really any price pressure or just a bunch of people maybe already aiming higher than they really should be aiming ? I think the stories you provided, though interesting, don’t tell us either way.

I wonder if the end of Fed mortgage purchases at the end of March will A) happen and B) have an effect.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdcellar][quote=sdrealtor]Tell me again we dont have a large amount of pent up demand building.[/quote]I don’t think anybody denies that pent up demand is out there. Heck, Piggington’s alone is chock full of it. I just question if the number is as high as you’ve put forth. I’ll certainly give you credit for throwing a number at it though![/quote]

Remember, in the first-order, demand is a fuction of price. You can’t say there is or is not pent-up demand unless you specify a price.

As was mentioned earlier, there is pent-up demand for beach houses at $400K, but not at $3M.

I’m sure there is pent-up demand because lots of people are sick of renting or they want to move to the nice neighborhood. But is there pent-up demand at prices much higher than they are today or are people just going to bid at or near the asking price but leave it be if they aren’t the highest bidder ?

i.e. is there really any price pressure or just a bunch of people maybe already aiming higher than they really should be aiming ? I think the stories you provided, though interesting, don’t tell us either way.

I wonder if the end of Fed mortgage purchases at the end of March will A) happen and B) have an effect.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdcellar][quote=sdrealtor]Tell me again we dont have a large amount of pent up demand building.[/quote]I don’t think anybody denies that pent up demand is out there. Heck, Piggington’s alone is chock full of it. I just question if the number is as high as you’ve put forth. I’ll certainly give you credit for throwing a number at it though![/quote]

Remember, in the first-order, demand is a fuction of price. You can’t say there is or is not pent-up demand unless you specify a price.

As was mentioned earlier, there is pent-up demand for beach houses at $400K, but not at $3M.

I’m sure there is pent-up demand because lots of people are sick of renting or they want to move to the nice neighborhood. But is there pent-up demand at prices much higher than they are today or are people just going to bid at or near the asking price but leave it be if they aren’t the highest bidder ?

i.e. is there really any price pressure or just a bunch of people maybe already aiming higher than they really should be aiming ? I think the stories you provided, though interesting, don’t tell us either way.

I wonder if the end of Fed mortgage purchases at the end of March will A) happen and B) have an effect.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdcellar][quote=sdrealtor]Tell me again we dont have a large amount of pent up demand building.[/quote]I don’t think anybody denies that pent up demand is out there. Heck, Piggington’s alone is chock full of it. I just question if the number is as high as you’ve put forth. I’ll certainly give you credit for throwing a number at it though![/quote]

Remember, in the first-order, demand is a fuction of price. You can’t say there is or is not pent-up demand unless you specify a price.

As was mentioned earlier, there is pent-up demand for beach houses at $400K, but not at $3M.

I’m sure there is pent-up demand because lots of people are sick of renting or they want to move to the nice neighborhood. But is there pent-up demand at prices much higher than they are today or are people just going to bid at or near the asking price but leave it be if they aren’t the highest bidder ?

i.e. is there really any price pressure or just a bunch of people maybe already aiming higher than they really should be aiming ? I think the stories you provided, though interesting, don’t tell us either way.

I wonder if the end of Fed mortgage purchases at the end of March will A) happen and B) have an effect.

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[quote=sdrealtor]
550K to 700K now 450K to 600K
700K to 850K now 600K to 700K
850K to 1M now 700K to 850K
1M to 1.25M now 850K to 1M
1.25M to 1.5M now 1M to 1.2M
[/quote]

OK. That’s useful. Thanks. Looks like it’s down 15-20%, roughly. Not sure I really have any follow-up questions now that I htink about it. Just trying to understand the market up there.

One thought I have is – I, personally, don’t understand why that place is so expensive in the first place. It isn’t my cup of tea. I’d rather live in an 800K UC house than an 800K house in those zip codes. It is too far north for me, which means a bad commute, and nothing to do. So, I don’t have a handle on that market at all.

Here’s a Q for you – how much for a small house (1700-2000 sq. ft) on a 10K sq. ft canyon lot up there? Do houses that small even exist ?

I still object to your concept that sales are down because there is not enough inventory. That just doesn’t make sense, especially in light of the 20% reduction over the time period in which both sales and prices were falling. Though you are probably seeing a much better balance in supply/demand now, with both down significantly from where they once were.

Also, the dichotomoy in the economy is fascinating to me. Some have been devastated, while others are totally unaffected or thriving. I was just pondering this today. It’s almost like there are two economies out there. I’m not sure exactly what separates them.

So, up or down for the next 2 years ?

[Author]

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