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sdduuuude
Participant[quote=zk][quote=Coronita]Both you and ZK are so obsessed with trump… [/quote]
Let’s see. I’m obsessed with trump, an extremely powerful man who is a great danger to our country and to my family.
You’re obsessed with Brian.[/quote]
Yes. Yes he is.
ParticipantHome Depot was somewhere between busy and crowded this morning. They had a very large man keeping the lines organized keeping people 6 feet apart. His name was Mark. He was awesome. He was authoritative enough to keep people organized but also friendly.
Home improvement stock ETF anyone?
Participant[quote=zk]
So you’re saying all governments are destined to fail.
But if it takes several hundred years or more to fail (which in many cases it has), then you can’t really say that it was necessarily an inherent fault in the nature of the system. There are no human systems (on the scale of a government, anyway – even the smallest one) that won’t fail at some point, if you give them five hundred years. That’s not necessarily because said system was fatally flawed. Circumstances change. Other countries invade. Humans screw things up. Anything can happen.[/quote]
Any government that makes too many decisions for it’s people, other than restricting coercive behavior, yes. An interesting topic for another thread.
“Fall” and “Fail” are two different things.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=sdduuuude][quote=svelte]An easier to read format:
https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/%5B/quote%5D
I have to say I think this is going too far, making the cure worse than the disease.[/quote]
+1[/quote]
The marginal gain from “social distancing” to “stay at home” seem minimal. Things are still exponential but the effects of social distancing won’t be seen until the 30th or so.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Home Depot should still be open.[/quote]
Their website say that people rely on them in times of crisis for critical things – fixing the heater or plumbing problems, for example. So I am hoping they stay open, or at least deliver.
ParticipantThat is the billion dollar question. Not sure the governor asked it before instituting the SAH order.
Flatten the curve not the economy !
I think it will be more than a blip but not sure if it will be entirely recessionary since the economy was in decent shape to begin. The gubmint will start the money pump, too. I think the stock market will be undecided (long-term flat but volatile) for several months before coming back.
Interesting to note, I have a car loan I have been paying off for 3 years. The bank sent an email saying there would be no payments, no interest for 60 days. Things like that can help the general economy significantly. It make this more of a pause than a crash.
Two things I believe about the human race.
1) When left to be free, we are incredibly adaptable. I believe we can flex around this. That being said, I think the SAH order will hamper that significantly. If that doesn’t lift soon, could be recessionary.
2) People are social animals social distancing is not a sustainable solution. I get that we need to flatten the curve but I wasn’t joking when I said the cure is worse than the disease. People will eventually choose to be social (especially if the threat is seen only in the news and they don’t personally know people dying) either by explicit demands to get the rules reversed or by disobeying the rules, and let the virus run its course.
In the US, some 2.8 million people die every year (2017 figure). Worst case estimates, without social distancing, are that 50K – 200K people will die in the US from the virus. I am not sure what the economic repercussions are of an extra 50k – 200K dying would be but it doesn’t seem significant.
Don’t take that to mean that I think the economy is more important than people dying. Keep in mind, being economically strong helps fight the virus. Also, Recessions and depressions kill people, too.
Put all that together and I think people will get back to a pretty normal life, economically speaking, in a couple months and the economy will be a bit scarred but in-tact.
ParticipantA pigg posted this. It mentions industries that are not shut down, outside of the 16 identified by the fed as critical. But I don’t see reference to those in the actual order.
Still, I’m going by this so I can go to Home Depot, if they are open, and continue my remodel project to get my Mom’s house sold.
https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/
Participant[quote=zk][quote=sdduuuude][quote=zk][quote=sdduuuude] The structure of government where they take your money and tell you what to do is destined to fail every time, even if you get to vote.[/quote]
Am I mistaken, or is that all governments? Even “small” ones?[/quote]
You are not misaken.
Bigger (higher % of GDP is govt spending) is worse, though.[/quote]So you’re saying all governments are destined to fail.
But if it takes several hundred years or more to fail (which in many cases it has), then you can’t really say that it was necessarily an inherent fault in the nature of the system. There are no human systems (on the scale of a government, anyway – even the smallest one) that won’t fail at some point, if you give them five hundred years. That’s not necessarily because said system was fatally flawed. Circumstances change. Other countries invade. Humans screw things up. Anything can happen.[/quote]
Any government that makes too many decisions for it’s people, other than restricting coercive behavior, yes. An interesting topic for another thread.
Participant[quote=svelte]An easier to read format:
https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/%5B/quote%5D
I have to say I think this is going too far, making the cure worse than the disease.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=sdduuuude]
My rejection of big government is far from “mindless”.
I have studied the ramifications of “voluntary social systems” for over 30 years now, starting in college. The structure of government where they take your money and tell you what to do is destined to fail every time, even if you get to vote.[/quote]
In your estimation, has the USA reached big government?[/quote]
😐
Participant[quote=zk][quote=sdduuuude] The structure of government where they take your money and tell you what to do is destined to fail every time, even if you get to vote.[/quote]
Am I mistaken, or is that all governments? Even “small” ones?[/quote]
You are not misaken.
Bigger (higher % of GDP is govt spending) is worse, though.ParticipantDoes anyone have any sense of whether or not real-estate deals have been entering escrow this week ?
I spoke with a couple of general contractors and they are continuing to work.
Construction is not shut down in SF.
Participant[quote=zk]Seems pretty closed-minded, and it brings to mind the below article. Republicans have been against “big government” for so long without really considering which situations might call for strong government involvement that they now mindlessly reject considering anything that involves significant government involvement. [/quote]
My rejection of big government is far from “mindless”.
I have studied the ramifications of “voluntary social systems” for over 30 years now, starting in college. The structure of government where they take your money and tell you what to do is destined to fail every time, even if you get to vote.
Participant[quote=zk][quote=sdduuuude]In the US today, of the 3916 active cases, only 12 are serious or critical. Seems like that is a lower percentage than it was a couple days ago but I don’t really remember. It is much lower than Italy’s 8%.
Things are looking genuinely exponential, though. Maybe we’ll see in the data effects of this weekends shutdowns around the 27th or so.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/%5B/quote%5D
That’s the number of confirmed, tested cases (over 5,000 now). Until tests are way, way, WAY easier to get, we won’t know what’s happening. We really have no idea how many cases there are.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/who-gets-tested-coronavirus/607999/%5B/quote%5D
Yes, but we do know that the people who are tested are the worst off so if the critical cases-to-total cases ratio is down, that is even better news, given limited testing.
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