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sdduuuude
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano]
It’s not intended to be a bold statement, but nonetheless, some people seem to disagree. Even your quote above suggests this… you say that inflation will not win the day, but then in the very next sentence you give me a hard time for apparently stating the obvious when I say that the prices of things that people need will go up. Wouldn’t that be inflation? (In specific, the kind of inflation that matters — the one that concerns people’s cost of living?)[/quote]
I appreciate the point that it is the kind of inflation that matters, but I’m not so sure it is what most would consider inflation.
I’m giving you a hard time because it is not a useful prediction. After three years, certainly some things will rise in price while others will fall. With a prediction like “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” you can’t go wrong (and I’m not so sure that really constitutes a general “inflation” call). After three years, you can surely look back and say “I got it right.”
List the specific things that will inflate and the specific things that won’t and specific things that will deflate – get it right and I’ll be impressed. But saying “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” deserves me giving you a hard time because as soon as you start picking a specific basket of goods instead of a general basket of goods, you are talking about something other than inflation. You are then talking about specific commodity prices.
Then there is the whole business of “inflation” meaning money supply increase instead of dollar increase but we can just stick to prices for this discussion.
Gold? Do people need gold? Will it’s price rise ?
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano]
It’s not intended to be a bold statement, but nonetheless, some people seem to disagree. Even your quote above suggests this… you say that inflation will not win the day, but then in the very next sentence you give me a hard time for apparently stating the obvious when I say that the prices of things that people need will go up. Wouldn’t that be inflation? (In specific, the kind of inflation that matters — the one that concerns people’s cost of living?)[/quote]
I appreciate the point that it is the kind of inflation that matters, but I’m not so sure it is what most would consider inflation.
I’m giving you a hard time because it is not a useful prediction. After three years, certainly some things will rise in price while others will fall. With a prediction like “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” you can’t go wrong (and I’m not so sure that really constitutes a general “inflation” call). After three years, you can surely look back and say “I got it right.”
List the specific things that will inflate and the specific things that won’t and specific things that will deflate – get it right and I’ll be impressed. But saying “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” deserves me giving you a hard time because as soon as you start picking a specific basket of goods instead of a general basket of goods, you are talking about something other than inflation. You are then talking about specific commodity prices.
Then there is the whole business of “inflation” meaning money supply increase instead of dollar increase but we can just stick to prices for this discussion.
Gold? Do people need gold? Will it’s price rise ?
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano]
It’s not intended to be a bold statement, but nonetheless, some people seem to disagree. Even your quote above suggests this… you say that inflation will not win the day, but then in the very next sentence you give me a hard time for apparently stating the obvious when I say that the prices of things that people need will go up. Wouldn’t that be inflation? (In specific, the kind of inflation that matters — the one that concerns people’s cost of living?)[/quote]
I appreciate the point that it is the kind of inflation that matters, but I’m not so sure it is what most would consider inflation.
I’m giving you a hard time because it is not a useful prediction. After three years, certainly some things will rise in price while others will fall. With a prediction like “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” you can’t go wrong (and I’m not so sure that really constitutes a general “inflation” call). After three years, you can surely look back and say “I got it right.”
List the specific things that will inflate and the specific things that won’t and specific things that will deflate – get it right and I’ll be impressed. But saying “the things people need that are scarce will inflate” deserves me giving you a hard time because as soon as you start picking a specific basket of goods instead of a general basket of goods, you are talking about something other than inflation. You are then talking about specific commodity prices.
Then there is the whole business of “inflation” meaning money supply increase instead of dollar increase but we can just stick to prices for this discussion.
Gold? Do people need gold? Will it’s price rise ?
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano] I can’t speak for others, but to me, the “fuss” on this topic is that we’ve gone from rampant deflation hysteria six months ago to firmly positive inflation now. [/quote]
To me, hysteria seemed rampant in both camps, simultaneously, over the last six months. Interesting that both agree on gold.
I see no fuss here. I’ll take the under on a $10 gallon of milk in the U.S. by Jan 1, 2012.
[quote=Rich Toscano]A major premise of “inflationists” (at least of mine) has been that inflation will not likely be across the board but will probably be more apparent in items that are in shorter supply, that people need, and that are sought after globally.[/quote]
I just think there is still too much deleveraging to be done for inflation to win the day for quite some time.
Saying there will be inflation in things people need and apparent in items that are in “shorter supply” is kind of not a very bold statement. Sounds suspiciously like “demand” and “supply” will affect “prices.”
That is to say – it is entirely likely that we end up needing and/or able to afford less for the next few years.
[quote=Rich Toscano]
… I think the idea here is to try to understand what current trends imply for the future.
[/quote]I’m seeing the oil trend up as it relates to unstable countries in the middle east – not so much related to US Currency and the Fed’s activities. I can’t find a chart of Libyan corn exports to prove that corn prices won’t be affected by the uprising.
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano] I can’t speak for others, but to me, the “fuss” on this topic is that we’ve gone from rampant deflation hysteria six months ago to firmly positive inflation now. [/quote]
To me, hysteria seemed rampant in both camps, simultaneously, over the last six months. Interesting that both agree on gold.
I see no fuss here. I’ll take the under on a $10 gallon of milk in the U.S. by Jan 1, 2012.
[quote=Rich Toscano]A major premise of “inflationists” (at least of mine) has been that inflation will not likely be across the board but will probably be more apparent in items that are in shorter supply, that people need, and that are sought after globally.[/quote]
I just think there is still too much deleveraging to be done for inflation to win the day for quite some time.
Saying there will be inflation in things people need and apparent in items that are in “shorter supply” is kind of not a very bold statement. Sounds suspiciously like “demand” and “supply” will affect “prices.”
That is to say – it is entirely likely that we end up needing and/or able to afford less for the next few years.
[quote=Rich Toscano]
… I think the idea here is to try to understand what current trends imply for the future.
[/quote]I’m seeing the oil trend up as it relates to unstable countries in the middle east – not so much related to US Currency and the Fed’s activities. I can’t find a chart of Libyan corn exports to prove that corn prices won’t be affected by the uprising.
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano] I can’t speak for others, but to me, the “fuss” on this topic is that we’ve gone from rampant deflation hysteria six months ago to firmly positive inflation now. [/quote]
To me, hysteria seemed rampant in both camps, simultaneously, over the last six months. Interesting that both agree on gold.
I see no fuss here. I’ll take the under on a $10 gallon of milk in the U.S. by Jan 1, 2012.
[quote=Rich Toscano]A major premise of “inflationists” (at least of mine) has been that inflation will not likely be across the board but will probably be more apparent in items that are in shorter supply, that people need, and that are sought after globally.[/quote]
I just think there is still too much deleveraging to be done for inflation to win the day for quite some time.
Saying there will be inflation in things people need and apparent in items that are in “shorter supply” is kind of not a very bold statement. Sounds suspiciously like “demand” and “supply” will affect “prices.”
That is to say – it is entirely likely that we end up needing and/or able to afford less for the next few years.
[quote=Rich Toscano]
… I think the idea here is to try to understand what current trends imply for the future.
[/quote]I’m seeing the oil trend up as it relates to unstable countries in the middle east – not so much related to US Currency and the Fed’s activities. I can’t find a chart of Libyan corn exports to prove that corn prices won’t be affected by the uprising.
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano] I can’t speak for others, but to me, the “fuss” on this topic is that we’ve gone from rampant deflation hysteria six months ago to firmly positive inflation now. [/quote]
To me, hysteria seemed rampant in both camps, simultaneously, over the last six months. Interesting that both agree on gold.
I see no fuss here. I’ll take the under on a $10 gallon of milk in the U.S. by Jan 1, 2012.
[quote=Rich Toscano]A major premise of “inflationists” (at least of mine) has been that inflation will not likely be across the board but will probably be more apparent in items that are in shorter supply, that people need, and that are sought after globally.[/quote]
I just think there is still too much deleveraging to be done for inflation to win the day for quite some time.
Saying there will be inflation in things people need and apparent in items that are in “shorter supply” is kind of not a very bold statement. Sounds suspiciously like “demand” and “supply” will affect “prices.”
That is to say – it is entirely likely that we end up needing and/or able to afford less for the next few years.
[quote=Rich Toscano]
… I think the idea here is to try to understand what current trends imply for the future.
[/quote]I’m seeing the oil trend up as it relates to unstable countries in the middle east – not so much related to US Currency and the Fed’s activities. I can’t find a chart of Libyan corn exports to prove that corn prices won’t be affected by the uprising.
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano] I can’t speak for others, but to me, the “fuss” on this topic is that we’ve gone from rampant deflation hysteria six months ago to firmly positive inflation now. [/quote]
To me, hysteria seemed rampant in both camps, simultaneously, over the last six months. Interesting that both agree on gold.
I see no fuss here. I’ll take the under on a $10 gallon of milk in the U.S. by Jan 1, 2012.
[quote=Rich Toscano]A major premise of “inflationists” (at least of mine) has been that inflation will not likely be across the board but will probably be more apparent in items that are in shorter supply, that people need, and that are sought after globally.[/quote]
I just think there is still too much deleveraging to be done for inflation to win the day for quite some time.
Saying there will be inflation in things people need and apparent in items that are in “shorter supply” is kind of not a very bold statement. Sounds suspiciously like “demand” and “supply” will affect “prices.”
That is to say – it is entirely likely that we end up needing and/or able to afford less for the next few years.
[quote=Rich Toscano]
… I think the idea here is to try to understand what current trends imply for the future.
[/quote]I’m seeing the oil trend up as it relates to unstable countries in the middle east – not so much related to US Currency and the Fed’s activities. I can’t find a chart of Libyan corn exports to prove that corn prices won’t be affected by the uprising.
ParticipantBeen out of town for a week. Good discussion here. Just for fun, I looked at the actual inflation rates:
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
Not sure what all the fuss is about. I can’t say I consider a range of 1.14% to 2.63% more than marginally inflationary?
Seems like a whole lot of nuthin’ to me.
I have moved from a deflationist position to a “very mild” deflationist position. I don’t think the Fed can effectively stave off deflation in its entirety – for reasons Arraya and CA mentioned, but I think they avoid major deflationary crashes and kick the can for years.
As such, I see An unstoppable force fighting an immovable object. This leads to a long period of low or negative growth, very mild deflation, high unemployment with the Fed fighting deflation the whole way and almost winning.
I found these numbers interesting – posted on the same day that socratt short-term spike in commodities prices.
ParticipantBeen out of town for a week. Good discussion here. Just for fun, I looked at the actual inflation rates:
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
Not sure what all the fuss is about. I can’t say I consider a range of 1.14% to 2.63% more than marginally inflationary?
Seems like a whole lot of nuthin’ to me.
I have moved from a deflationist position to a “very mild” deflationist position. I don’t think the Fed can effectively stave off deflation in its entirety – for reasons Arraya and CA mentioned, but I think they avoid major deflationary crashes and kick the can for years.
As such, I see An unstoppable force fighting an immovable object. This leads to a long period of low or negative growth, very mild deflation, high unemployment with the Fed fighting deflation the whole way and almost winning.
I found these numbers interesting – posted on the same day that socratt short-term spike in commodities prices.
ParticipantBeen out of town for a week. Good discussion here. Just for fun, I looked at the actual inflation rates:
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
Not sure what all the fuss is about. I can’t say I consider a range of 1.14% to 2.63% more than marginally inflationary?
Seems like a whole lot of nuthin’ to me.
I have moved from a deflationist position to a “very mild” deflationist position. I don’t think the Fed can effectively stave off deflation in its entirety – for reasons Arraya and CA mentioned, but I think they avoid major deflationary crashes and kick the can for years.
As such, I see An unstoppable force fighting an immovable object. This leads to a long period of low or negative growth, very mild deflation, high unemployment with the Fed fighting deflation the whole way and almost winning.
I found these numbers interesting – posted on the same day that socratt short-term spike in commodities prices.
ParticipantBeen out of town for a week. Good discussion here. Just for fun, I looked at the actual inflation rates:
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
Not sure what all the fuss is about. I can’t say I consider a range of 1.14% to 2.63% more than marginally inflationary?
Seems like a whole lot of nuthin’ to me.
I have moved from a deflationist position to a “very mild” deflationist position. I don’t think the Fed can effectively stave off deflation in its entirety – for reasons Arraya and CA mentioned, but I think they avoid major deflationary crashes and kick the can for years.
As such, I see An unstoppable force fighting an immovable object. This leads to a long period of low or negative growth, very mild deflation, high unemployment with the Fed fighting deflation the whole way and almost winning.
I found these numbers interesting – posted on the same day that socratt short-term spike in commodities prices.
ParticipantBeen out of town for a week. Good discussion here. Just for fun, I looked at the actual inflation rates:
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
Not sure what all the fuss is about. I can’t say I consider a range of 1.14% to 2.63% more than marginally inflationary?
Seems like a whole lot of nuthin’ to me.
I have moved from a deflationist position to a “very mild” deflationist position. I don’t think the Fed can effectively stave off deflation in its entirety – for reasons Arraya and CA mentioned, but I think they avoid major deflationary crashes and kick the can for years.
As such, I see An unstoppable force fighting an immovable object. This leads to a long period of low or negative growth, very mild deflation, high unemployment with the Fed fighting deflation the whole way and almost winning.
I found these numbers interesting – posted on the same day that socratt short-term spike in commodities prices.
February 15, 2011 at 10:28 AM in reply to: OT – Beach Culture. Florida, Texas, Hawaii, California? Which is best? #666627ParticipantThere’s a beach in Texas ?
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