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sd_owner
ParticipantWith the current economic policies, it will be hard for US to keep these jobs even if they are created here. As soon as these products get exported to China, the manufacturing will gradually be moved there. China’s central and local governments are heavily involved in economic activities. When a foreign company wants to sell products in China, they will require the company to gradually produce the parts locally. That is why almost all cars (Mercede, Audi, BMW, VW, GM, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Nissan, etc) sold in China are produced in China.
Another major reason that US is unlikely to keep manufacturing jobs is our tax policies. For example, China uses VAT (Value Added Tax). When someone imports a product into China, the customs immediately collects a tax of 17% VAT plus product-specific import taxes. Unlike US, they use local value and add shipping fees when calculating the import tax. As a results, the import tax collected by the customs is frequently over 40%. In contrast, US frequently collects 0% import tax on many products (e.g. electronics). It is quite difficult to compete against China for manufacturing jobs.
ParticipantHyperinflation is possible, but is unlikely. The manufacturing jobs have left US, with little hope of coming back because the entire supply chain is gone now. Outsourcing has now moved to the skilled workers. We will not see wage inflation anytime soon. Without wage inflation, price inflation is unlikely to happen.
The stratospheric home prices in China have started to descend. Although the government there is very powerful, the economy will still be impacted by falling home prices. The number of wealthy Chinese who have been coming to US to buy homes with cash is decreasing. CA home prices will likely start to go down again soon.
However, if you have tons of cash in the bank, it is not a bad idea to invest in real estate. Although CA real estate is over-priced, there are many places in the US where home prices are quite reasonable.
ParticipantPowayseller made the right call indeed. What she (and many of us) did not expect was that the fed would take such great pains to prop up the housing market. Therefore, the magnitude of the decline has been much less than she predicted.
She is making the correct call again this time. At this time, it is fairly safe to say that, in terms of nominal home prices (i.e., before taking inflation into consideration), the downside risk is much smaller than the upside. The biggest risk is inflation. When that comes, asset (including homes) prices will start shooting up again.
ParticipantPowayseller made the right call indeed. What she (and many of us) did not expect was that the fed would take such great pains to prop up the housing market. Therefore, the magnitude of the decline has been much less than she predicted.
She is making the correct call again this time. At this time, it is fairly safe to say that, in terms of nominal home prices (i.e., before taking inflation into consideration), the downside risk is much smaller than the upside. The biggest risk is inflation. When that comes, asset (including homes) prices will start shooting up again.
ParticipantPowayseller made the right call indeed. What she (and many of us) did not expect was that the fed would take such great pains to prop up the housing market. Therefore, the magnitude of the decline has been much less than she predicted.
She is making the correct call again this time. At this time, it is fairly safe to say that, in terms of nominal home prices (i.e., before taking inflation into consideration), the downside risk is much smaller than the upside. The biggest risk is inflation. When that comes, asset (including homes) prices will start shooting up again.
ParticipantPowayseller made the right call indeed. What she (and many of us) did not expect was that the fed would take such great pains to prop up the housing market. Therefore, the magnitude of the decline has been much less than she predicted.
She is making the correct call again this time. At this time, it is fairly safe to say that, in terms of nominal home prices (i.e., before taking inflation into consideration), the downside risk is much smaller than the upside. The biggest risk is inflation. When that comes, asset (including homes) prices will start shooting up again.
ParticipantPowayseller made the right call indeed. What she (and many of us) did not expect was that the fed would take such great pains to prop up the housing market. Therefore, the magnitude of the decline has been much less than she predicted.
She is making the correct call again this time. At this time, it is fairly safe to say that, in terms of nominal home prices (i.e., before taking inflation into consideration), the downside risk is much smaller than the upside. The biggest risk is inflation. When that comes, asset (including homes) prices will start shooting up again.
ParticipantHolding Yuan may not be a smart idea, as its real interest rate has been negative for quite many years. A better way is to buy some reasonably priced Chinese assets: real estate or stocks. In that way, you can protect your Yuan holdings against inflation.
I think many institutions are already doing this.
ParticipantHolding Yuan may not be a smart idea, as its real interest rate has been negative for quite many years. A better way is to buy some reasonably priced Chinese assets: real estate or stocks. In that way, you can protect your Yuan holdings against inflation.
I think many institutions are already doing this.
ParticipantHolding Yuan may not be a smart idea, as its real interest rate has been negative for quite many years. A better way is to buy some reasonably priced Chinese assets: real estate or stocks. In that way, you can protect your Yuan holdings against inflation.
I think many institutions are already doing this.
ParticipantHolding Yuan may not be a smart idea, as its real interest rate has been negative for quite many years. A better way is to buy some reasonably priced Chinese assets: real estate or stocks. In that way, you can protect your Yuan holdings against inflation.
I think many institutions are already doing this.
ParticipantHolding Yuan may not be a smart idea, as its real interest rate has been negative for quite many years. A better way is to buy some reasonably priced Chinese assets: real estate or stocks. In that way, you can protect your Yuan holdings against inflation.
I think many institutions are already doing this.
ParticipantLot Price = Home Price – Home Construction Price – Builder Profit.
In Detroit, lot price is already negative. In San Diego, some homes have negative lot price but most still have good values.
In nearby 4S Ranch, a 5700-6000 sqft lot cost the builders ~$180K-$200K back in 2001 and ~$300K today.
ParticipantLot Price = Home Price – Home Construction Price – Builder Profit.
In Detroit, lot price is already negative. In San Diego, some homes have negative lot price but most still have good values.
In nearby 4S Ranch, a 5700-6000 sqft lot cost the builders ~$180K-$200K back in 2001 and ~$300K today.
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