[rockclimber]

Howdy, long time no contribute…

Couple of comments. Us Piggs who have been around since 2005 or earlier know that the data was very compelling and its not totally luck. It’s about probability. I love Rich’s analogy of a bubble floating through a cactus field. Yes, it might make it, but it’s unlikely.

I remember a fairly arrogant guy back in early 2006 talking about shorting LEND and some other sub-prime lender stocks (that was back when Powayseller was still around). There was a lively conversation and his arrogance was a bit obnoxious, but man, I bet he made a killing. I wish I would have had the stones to do that. I tell you one thing, watching this unflold has taught me a lot about market bubbles and bubble mentality (still much more to learn). I want to be ready for the next one.

[rockclimber]

Howdy, long time no contribute…

Couple of comments. Us Piggs who have been around since 2005 or earlier know that the data was very compelling and its not totally luck. It’s about probability. I love Rich’s analogy of a bubble floating through a cactus field. Yes, it might make it, but it’s unlikely.

I remember a fairly arrogant guy back in early 2006 talking about shorting LEND and some other sub-prime lender stocks (that was back when Powayseller was still around). There was a lively conversation and his arrogance was a bit obnoxious, but man, I bet he made a killing. I wish I would have had the stones to do that. I tell you one thing, watching this unflold has taught me a lot about market bubbles and bubble mentality (still much more to learn). I want to be ready for the next one.

[rockclimber]

Howdy, long time no contribute…

Couple of comments. Us Piggs who have been around since 2005 or earlier know that the data was very compelling and its not totally luck. It’s about probability. I love Rich’s analogy of a bubble floating through a cactus field. Yes, it might make it, but it’s unlikely.

I remember a fairly arrogant guy back in early 2006 talking about shorting LEND and some other sub-prime lender stocks (that was back when Powayseller was still around). There was a lively conversation and his arrogance was a bit obnoxious, but man, I bet he made a killing. I wish I would have had the stones to do that. I tell you one thing, watching this unflold has taught me a lot about market bubbles and bubble mentality (still much more to learn). I want to be ready for the next one.

[rockclimber]

Howdy, long time no contribute…

Couple of comments. Us Piggs who have been around since 2005 or earlier know that the data was very compelling and its not totally luck. It’s about probability. I love Rich’s analogy of a bubble floating through a cactus field. Yes, it might make it, but it’s unlikely.

I remember a fairly arrogant guy back in early 2006 talking about shorting LEND and some other sub-prime lender stocks (that was back when Powayseller was still around). There was a lively conversation and his arrogance was a bit obnoxious, but man, I bet he made a killing. I wish I would have had the stones to do that. I tell you one thing, watching this unflold has taught me a lot about market bubbles and bubble mentality (still much more to learn). I want to be ready for the next one.

[rockclimber]

Howdy, long time no contribute…

Couple of comments. Us Piggs who have been around since 2005 or earlier know that the data was very compelling and its not totally luck. It’s about probability. I love Rich’s analogy of a bubble floating through a cactus field. Yes, it might make it, but it’s unlikely.

I remember a fairly arrogant guy back in early 2006 talking about shorting LEND and some other sub-prime lender stocks (that was back when Powayseller was still around). There was a lively conversation and his arrogance was a bit obnoxious, but man, I bet he made a killing. I wish I would have had the stones to do that. I tell you one thing, watching this unflold has taught me a lot about market bubbles and bubble mentality (still much more to learn). I want to be ready for the next one.

[rockclimber]

jg, I hope you’ll keep posting the updated numbers monthly. This is really good stuff.

[rockclimber]

Look at the La Jolla median volatility since ’04! There’s nearly a $.75M error band. Wild.

[rockclimber]

I took the liberty of starting a chart of sdr’s data contained in this thread.

[img_assist|nid=2133|title=sdr’s data 11-27|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=313]

[rockclimber]

It’s not about making any real change or recouping any losses. It’s purely the blame game, so that politicians can say they’ve done something to “protect” the poor sheep.

The fact that most flippers will be flipping burgers instead of houses (if they didn’t get out in time) makes it even more likely they will be blamed.

[rockclimber]

Why would you pay more for anything than the cost of the raw materials? (in this case, the cost to extract the raw material from the ground)

1. Supply and Demand
2. Value added by the assembly of the raw materials into something useful or desireable (e.g. a DVD player, gold fashioned into jewelry, concrete and steel into an overpass, slab ‘o granite into a countertop, etc.)

[rockclimber]

After some of the thoughtful discussion on this site, I decided to stay far away from any property where the landlord might not be covering his mortgage.

What dinner? (Sorry, I’ve been busy with an international move for the last month…)

[rockclimber]

Don’t follow all this advice…

Unless you have first paid off all your credit card debt, and then saved enough cash to weather a job-loss (6-12 mo., I prefer 12) then work toward paying cash for any depreciating assets (like a car).

For the cash reserved for job-loss… it does not need to be your full salary since during that time you won’t be paying taxes, etc. I like having a CD ladder for that purpose (just google CD ladder if you don’t know what it is)

After that, this stuff is good advice. Especially the tip on reading, The Intelligent Investor.

Some of us don’t think we can predict the future as well as others. This fact becomes the cornerstone of our investment strategy… the future cannot be predicted, thus we need a method of investment that does not depend on our ability to read the tea-leaves.

[rockclimber]

Do your marketing costs and “liability” (not sure what you’re talking about here) scale with the median price index?

I know a common agent retort to this argument is that, “The commission is built into the market…” What are your thoughts on that?

Is the sales commission an incentive for the agent to get the most money they can for their client? NOT! At $500k average per house, differences of $10k or so are peanuts with regard to commission… it’s gotta be all about volume.

Here’s my take. Agents do add value, but the value they add does not scale with the price of the house. Exceptions might be “hard to sell” property types that would warrant a premium.

[rockclimber]

If the data set were normally distributed the mean and median would converge, but RE data is not normally distributed and that’s precisely why the mean is not very useful for measuring trends. It could be useful if you limited the data set to certain price ranges, otherwise relatively few high price homes being sold would significantly impact the mean. In the case of the median, it has almost no impact.

I do really like the idea of tracking median price/sqft though… I think that would be a better measure than just the median. PS brought that up in another thread…

[rockclimber]

No. They get the deed in a foreclosure and then sell the house. Anyway, no need to get anal… The point was that people are cashing out of their houses to rent (like several of us have done on this site.) We’re not talking about foreclosure.

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