[Rich Toscano]

[quote=pri_dk]So everybody hates Geithner. An easy position to take.

Could be worse. At least he’s not Andrew Mellon.

So let’s look at the situation in the real world, i.e. in the context of the available alternatives (often more useful than than echoing talking points or mocking a person’s appearance.)

So, who would be a better choice?

[Edit: Note that Brian is the only one to “Bring Data” to this thread so far][/quote]

Actually I don’t think that’s a useful exercise… who’s a better choice in the context of “available alternatives” who might actually get appointed (i.e., other deeply entrenched insiders who support serial financial industry bailouts and employ a demonstrably flawed analytical framework)? Who cares? I think I will stick to making fun of his elf ears.

As far as bringing data, I an not going to spend the time it would take to rehash his long history of being wrong and of helping to facilitate a massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the banks and financial speculators. The info is all out there.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=pri_dk]So everybody hates Geithner. An easy position to take.

Could be worse. At least he’s not Andrew Mellon.

So let’s look at the situation in the real world, i.e. in the context of the available alternatives (often more useful than than echoing talking points or mocking a person’s appearance.)

So, who would be a better choice?

[Edit: Note that Brian is the only one to “Bring Data” to this thread so far][/quote]

Actually I don’t think that’s a useful exercise… who’s a better choice in the context of “available alternatives” who might actually get appointed (i.e., other deeply entrenched insiders who support serial financial industry bailouts and employ a demonstrably flawed analytical framework)? Who cares? I think I will stick to making fun of his elf ears.

As far as bringing data, I an not going to spend the time it would take to rehash his long history of being wrong and of helping to facilitate a massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the banks and financial speculators. The info is all out there.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=pri_dk]So everybody hates Geithner. An easy position to take.

Could be worse. At least he’s not Andrew Mellon.

So let’s look at the situation in the real world, i.e. in the context of the available alternatives (often more useful than than echoing talking points or mocking a person’s appearance.)

So, who would be a better choice?

[Edit: Note that Brian is the only one to “Bring Data” to this thread so far][/quote]

Actually I don’t think that’s a useful exercise… who’s a better choice in the context of “available alternatives” who might actually get appointed (i.e., other deeply entrenched insiders who support serial financial industry bailouts and employ a demonstrably flawed analytical framework)? Who cares? I think I will stick to making fun of his elf ears.

As far as bringing data, I an not going to spend the time it would take to rehash his long history of being wrong and of helping to facilitate a massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the banks and financial speculators. The info is all out there.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=pri_dk]So everybody hates Geithner. An easy position to take.

Could be worse. At least he’s not Andrew Mellon.

So let’s look at the situation in the real world, i.e. in the context of the available alternatives (often more useful than than echoing talking points or mocking a person’s appearance.)

So, who would be a better choice?

[Edit: Note that Brian is the only one to “Bring Data” to this thread so far][/quote]

Actually I don’t think that’s a useful exercise… who’s a better choice in the context of “available alternatives” who might actually get appointed (i.e., other deeply entrenched insiders who support serial financial industry bailouts and employ a demonstrably flawed analytical framework)? Who cares? I think I will stick to making fun of his elf ears.

As far as bringing data, I an not going to spend the time it would take to rehash his long history of being wrong and of helping to facilitate a massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the banks and financial speculators. The info is all out there.

[Rich Toscano]

I have confidence in him to funnel taxpayer money to the financial industry at every opportunity, to continually misdiagnose the nature of our ongoing financial troubles, and to help lead us blindly into a US sovereign debt crisis.

He appears to be an elf, so depending one whether I’m reading Tolkien or eating Pecan Sandies, I’m confident in either his archery or baking skills.

Other than that, not so much.

[Rich Toscano]

I have confidence in him to funnel taxpayer money to the financial industry at every opportunity, to continually misdiagnose the nature of our ongoing financial troubles, and to help lead us blindly into a US sovereign debt crisis.

He appears to be an elf, so depending one whether I’m reading Tolkien or eating Pecan Sandies, I’m confident in either his archery or baking skills.

Other than that, not so much.

[Rich Toscano]

I have confidence in him to funnel taxpayer money to the financial industry at every opportunity, to continually misdiagnose the nature of our ongoing financial troubles, and to help lead us blindly into a US sovereign debt crisis.

He appears to be an elf, so depending one whether I’m reading Tolkien or eating Pecan Sandies, I’m confident in either his archery or baking skills.

Other than that, not so much.

[Rich Toscano]

I have confidence in him to funnel taxpayer money to the financial industry at every opportunity, to continually misdiagnose the nature of our ongoing financial troubles, and to help lead us blindly into a US sovereign debt crisis.

He appears to be an elf, so depending one whether I’m reading Tolkien or eating Pecan Sandies, I’m confident in either his archery or baking skills.

Other than that, not so much.

[Rich Toscano]

I have confidence in him to funnel taxpayer money to the financial industry at every opportunity, to continually misdiagnose the nature of our ongoing financial troubles, and to help lead us blindly into a US sovereign debt crisis.

He appears to be an elf, so depending one whether I’m reading Tolkien or eating Pecan Sandies, I’m confident in either his archery or baking skills.

Other than that, not so much.

[Rich Toscano]

OK, I read it, you are right… it does address that issue. Thank you! It’s nice to have an answer from the horse’s mouth.

But even Williams admits I am right… (emphasis mine):

I publish two estimates of alternate CPI growth, based on methodologies in place as of 1980 and as of 1990. The alternate estimates are based on adjusting the published CPI-U for cumulative annual differences in CPI as estimated by the BLS for the impact of its various methodological changes since the early 1980s (or 1990s). Some of the 1990s and later estimated changes have not been published by the BLS. I do not recalculate the CPI, only adjust for the reported, aggregate biases, generally using the BLS numbers.

Unfortunately this approach is not of any value imho. Basically it means, to take the example of using home prices vs. OER: his shadow cpi showed the same spread over BLS cpi when home prices (which comprise a huge chunk of CPI) were rising at double digit percentages as it did when home prices were plummeting at double digit percentages.

How is that useful? Taking what he believes to be a 30-year average difference and just adding it to the CPI every month doesn’t provide any insights about what’s happening with inflation.

There’s also the issue that pri_dk raised, that his estimates seem extremely high. We can observe and estimate price inflation from real life. I do agree that BLS cpi understates cost of living increases to a varying extent — but year over year inflation clearly wasn’t 13% at the high in 2008; and it was not +6% at the inflation low in 2009 when we could all see that prices of most things were actually dropping yoy. So I’ve taken two extremes there… a cpi high and a cpi low… and in both cases, his estimates were far higher than what I would reasonably estimate as the real-life cost of living increase.

So while it’s a great idea to try to do this, his implementation is very flawed, imho.

[Rich Toscano]

OK, I read it, you are right… it does address that issue. Thank you! It’s nice to have an answer from the horse’s mouth.

But even Williams admits I am right… (emphasis mine):

I publish two estimates of alternate CPI growth, based on methodologies in place as of 1980 and as of 1990. The alternate estimates are based on adjusting the published CPI-U for cumulative annual differences in CPI as estimated by the BLS for the impact of its various methodological changes since the early 1980s (or 1990s). Some of the 1990s and later estimated changes have not been published by the BLS. I do not recalculate the CPI, only adjust for the reported, aggregate biases, generally using the BLS numbers.

Unfortunately this approach is not of any value imho. Basically it means, to take the example of using home prices vs. OER: his shadow cpi showed the same spread over BLS cpi when home prices (which comprise a huge chunk of CPI) were rising at double digit percentages as it did when home prices were plummeting at double digit percentages.

How is that useful? Taking what he believes to be a 30-year average difference and just adding it to the CPI every month doesn’t provide any insights about what’s happening with inflation.

There’s also the issue that pri_dk raised, that his estimates seem extremely high. We can observe and estimate price inflation from real life. I do agree that BLS cpi understates cost of living increases to a varying extent — but year over year inflation clearly wasn’t 13% at the high in 2008; and it was not +6% at the inflation low in 2009 when we could all see that prices of most things were actually dropping yoy. So I’ve taken two extremes there… a cpi high and a cpi low… and in both cases, his estimates were far higher than what I would reasonably estimate as the real-life cost of living increase.

So while it’s a great idea to try to do this, his implementation is very flawed, imho.

[Rich Toscano]

OK, I read it, you are right… it does address that issue. Thank you! It’s nice to have an answer from the horse’s mouth.

But even Williams admits I am right… (emphasis mine):

I publish two estimates of alternate CPI growth, based on methodologies in place as of 1980 and as of 1990. The alternate estimates are based on adjusting the published CPI-U for cumulative annual differences in CPI as estimated by the BLS for the impact of its various methodological changes since the early 1980s (or 1990s). Some of the 1990s and later estimated changes have not been published by the BLS. I do not recalculate the CPI, only adjust for the reported, aggregate biases, generally using the BLS numbers.

Unfortunately this approach is not of any value imho. Basically it means, to take the example of using home prices vs. OER: his shadow cpi showed the same spread over BLS cpi when home prices (which comprise a huge chunk of CPI) were rising at double digit percentages as it did when home prices were plummeting at double digit percentages.

How is that useful? Taking what he believes to be a 30-year average difference and just adding it to the CPI every month doesn’t provide any insights about what’s happening with inflation.

There’s also the issue that pri_dk raised, that his estimates seem extremely high. We can observe and estimate price inflation from real life. I do agree that BLS cpi understates cost of living increases to a varying extent — but year over year inflation clearly wasn’t 13% at the high in 2008; and it was not +6% at the inflation low in 2009 when we could all see that prices of most things were actually dropping yoy. So I’ve taken two extremes there… a cpi high and a cpi low… and in both cases, his estimates were far higher than what I would reasonably estimate as the real-life cost of living increase.

So while it’s a great idea to try to do this, his implementation is very flawed, imho.

[Rich Toscano]

OK, I read it, you are right… it does address that issue. Thank you! It’s nice to have an answer from the horse’s mouth.

But even Williams admits I am right… (emphasis mine):

I publish two estimates of alternate CPI growth, based on methodologies in place as of 1980 and as of 1990. The alternate estimates are based on adjusting the published CPI-U for cumulative annual differences in CPI as estimated by the BLS for the impact of its various methodological changes since the early 1980s (or 1990s). Some of the 1990s and later estimated changes have not been published by the BLS. I do not recalculate the CPI, only adjust for the reported, aggregate biases, generally using the BLS numbers.

Unfortunately this approach is not of any value imho. Basically it means, to take the example of using home prices vs. OER: his shadow cpi showed the same spread over BLS cpi when home prices (which comprise a huge chunk of CPI) were rising at double digit percentages as it did when home prices were plummeting at double digit percentages.

How is that useful? Taking what he believes to be a 30-year average difference and just adding it to the CPI every month doesn’t provide any insights about what’s happening with inflation.

There’s also the issue that pri_dk raised, that his estimates seem extremely high. We can observe and estimate price inflation from real life. I do agree that BLS cpi understates cost of living increases to a varying extent — but year over year inflation clearly wasn’t 13% at the high in 2008; and it was not +6% at the inflation low in 2009 when we could all see that prices of most things were actually dropping yoy. So I’ve taken two extremes there… a cpi high and a cpi low… and in both cases, his estimates were far higher than what I would reasonably estimate as the real-life cost of living increase.

So while it’s a great idea to try to do this, his implementation is very flawed, imho.

[Rich Toscano]

OK, I read it, you are right… it does address that issue. Thank you! It’s nice to have an answer from the horse’s mouth.

But even Williams admits I am right… (emphasis mine):

I publish two estimates of alternate CPI growth, based on methodologies in place as of 1980 and as of 1990. The alternate estimates are based on adjusting the published CPI-U for cumulative annual differences in CPI as estimated by the BLS for the impact of its various methodological changes since the early 1980s (or 1990s). Some of the 1990s and later estimated changes have not been published by the BLS. I do not recalculate the CPI, only adjust for the reported, aggregate biases, generally using the BLS numbers.

Unfortunately this approach is not of any value imho. Basically it means, to take the example of using home prices vs. OER: his shadow cpi showed the same spread over BLS cpi when home prices (which comprise a huge chunk of CPI) were rising at double digit percentages as it did when home prices were plummeting at double digit percentages.

How is that useful? Taking what he believes to be a 30-year average difference and just adding it to the CPI every month doesn’t provide any insights about what’s happening with inflation.

There’s also the issue that pri_dk raised, that his estimates seem extremely high. We can observe and estimate price inflation from real life. I do agree that BLS cpi understates cost of living increases to a varying extent — but year over year inflation clearly wasn’t 13% at the high in 2008; and it was not +6% at the inflation low in 2009 when we could all see that prices of most things were actually dropping yoy. So I’ve taken two extremes there… a cpi high and a cpi low… and in both cases, his estimates were far higher than what I would reasonably estimate as the real-life cost of living increase.

So while it’s a great idea to try to do this, his implementation is very flawed, imho.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=permabear]Have you read this? http://www.shadowstats.com/article/special-comment%5B/quote%5D

No… does it address the specific issue I raised above?

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