[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdduuuude]
To me, hysteria seemed rampant in both camps, simultaneously, over the last six months. Interesting that both agree on gold.

I see no fuss here. I’ll take the under on a $10 gallon of milk in the U.S. by Jan 1, 2012.
[/quote]

Yes, there are hysterical people on all sides of every argument, and I certainly agree with you on your over/under. But that doesn’t really change the point I was trying to make, which is that 6 months ago, the conventional wisdom was that serious deflation was a big risk (you need look no further than the Fed’s policy to see that). Now, here we are talking about prices of certain key items rising very rapidly.

That transition is interesting. So again, I can’t speak for anyone else, but to me the crux of this topic is not that yoy CPI is all that high (it isn’t) but that there has been a fairly rapid change in price pressures and the perceptions thereof.

[quote=sdduuuude]
I just think there is still too much deleveraging to be done for inflation to win the day for quite some time.

Saying there will be inflation in things people need and apparent in items that are in “shorter supply” is kind of not a very bold statement.
[/quote]

It’s not intended to be a bold statement, but nonetheless, some people seem to disagree. Even your quote above suggests this… you say that inflation will not win the day, but then in the very next sentence you give me a hard time for apparently stating the obvious when I say that the prices of things that people need will go up. Wouldn’t that be inflation? (In specific, the kind of inflation that matters — the one that concerns people’s cost of living?)

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdduuuude]
To me, hysteria seemed rampant in both camps, simultaneously, over the last six months. Interesting that both agree on gold.

I see no fuss here. I’ll take the under on a $10 gallon of milk in the U.S. by Jan 1, 2012.
[/quote]

Yes, there are hysterical people on all sides of every argument, and I certainly agree with you on your over/under. But that doesn’t really change the point I was trying to make, which is that 6 months ago, the conventional wisdom was that serious deflation was a big risk (you need look no further than the Fed’s policy to see that). Now, here we are talking about prices of certain key items rising very rapidly.

That transition is interesting. So again, I can’t speak for anyone else, but to me the crux of this topic is not that yoy CPI is all that high (it isn’t) but that there has been a fairly rapid change in price pressures and the perceptions thereof.

[quote=sdduuuude]
I just think there is still too much deleveraging to be done for inflation to win the day for quite some time.

Saying there will be inflation in things people need and apparent in items that are in “shorter supply” is kind of not a very bold statement.
[/quote]

It’s not intended to be a bold statement, but nonetheless, some people seem to disagree. Even your quote above suggests this… you say that inflation will not win the day, but then in the very next sentence you give me a hard time for apparently stating the obvious when I say that the prices of things that people need will go up. Wouldn’t that be inflation? (In specific, the kind of inflation that matters — the one that concerns people’s cost of living?)

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdduuuude]
To me, hysteria seemed rampant in both camps, simultaneously, over the last six months. Interesting that both agree on gold.

I see no fuss here. I’ll take the under on a $10 gallon of milk in the U.S. by Jan 1, 2012.
[/quote]

Yes, there are hysterical people on all sides of every argument, and I certainly agree with you on your over/under. But that doesn’t really change the point I was trying to make, which is that 6 months ago, the conventional wisdom was that serious deflation was a big risk (you need look no further than the Fed’s policy to see that). Now, here we are talking about prices of certain key items rising very rapidly.

That transition is interesting. So again, I can’t speak for anyone else, but to me the crux of this topic is not that yoy CPI is all that high (it isn’t) but that there has been a fairly rapid change in price pressures and the perceptions thereof.

[quote=sdduuuude]
I just think there is still too much deleveraging to be done for inflation to win the day for quite some time.

Saying there will be inflation in things people need and apparent in items that are in “shorter supply” is kind of not a very bold statement.
[/quote]

It’s not intended to be a bold statement, but nonetheless, some people seem to disagree. Even your quote above suggests this… you say that inflation will not win the day, but then in the very next sentence you give me a hard time for apparently stating the obvious when I say that the prices of things that people need will go up. Wouldn’t that be inflation? (In specific, the kind of inflation that matters — the one that concerns people’s cost of living?)

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdduuuude]
To me, hysteria seemed rampant in both camps, simultaneously, over the last six months. Interesting that both agree on gold.

I see no fuss here. I’ll take the under on a $10 gallon of milk in the U.S. by Jan 1, 2012.
[/quote]

Yes, there are hysterical people on all sides of every argument, and I certainly agree with you on your over/under. But that doesn’t really change the point I was trying to make, which is that 6 months ago, the conventional wisdom was that serious deflation was a big risk (you need look no further than the Fed’s policy to see that). Now, here we are talking about prices of certain key items rising very rapidly.

That transition is interesting. So again, I can’t speak for anyone else, but to me the crux of this topic is not that yoy CPI is all that high (it isn’t) but that there has been a fairly rapid change in price pressures and the perceptions thereof.

[quote=sdduuuude]
I just think there is still too much deleveraging to be done for inflation to win the day for quite some time.

Saying there will be inflation in things people need and apparent in items that are in “shorter supply” is kind of not a very bold statement.
[/quote]

It’s not intended to be a bold statement, but nonetheless, some people seem to disagree. Even your quote above suggests this… you say that inflation will not win the day, but then in the very next sentence you give me a hard time for apparently stating the obvious when I say that the prices of things that people need will go up. Wouldn’t that be inflation? (In specific, the kind of inflation that matters — the one that concerns people’s cost of living?)

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdduuuude]Been out of town for a week. Good discussion here. Just for fun, I looked at the actual inflation rates:

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp

Not sure what all the fuss is about. I can’t say I consider a range of 1.14% to 2.63% more than marginally inflationary?

Seems like a whole lot of nuthin’ to me.
[/quote]

I can’t speak for others, but to me, the “fuss” on this topic is that we’ve gone from rampant deflation hysteria six months ago to firmly positive inflation now. The YOY numbers you cited tend to smooth over recent rates of change which can be seen in the CPI or in the more up to date inflation measure coming from MIT (fyi, the timeline on the MIT chart is created automatically so I picked the same timeline for the cpi chart):

[img_assist|nid=14686|title=cpi|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=216]

[img_assist|nid=14687|title=bpp|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=360]

Additionally, there has been notably faster inflation in food and energy prices, though some of that has not yet leaked through to the consumer level. A major premise of “inflationists” (at least of mine) has been that inflation will not likely be across the board but will probably be more apparent in items that are in shorter supply, that people need, and that are sought after globally. So a rise in food and energy prices alongside a flatter core CPI may seem like a more significant development to us than to you.

So that’s what the fuss is about, to the extent there is a fuss. That said I agree I certainly that current levels of inflation are not super problematic, at least not in this country. I think the idea here is to try to understand what current trends imply for the future.

Personally, I don’t believe this is the “big one”… I think it’s coming, but not until after our foreign creditors panic.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdduuuude]Been out of town for a week. Good discussion here. Just for fun, I looked at the actual inflation rates:

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp

Not sure what all the fuss is about. I can’t say I consider a range of 1.14% to 2.63% more than marginally inflationary?

Seems like a whole lot of nuthin’ to me.
[/quote]

I can’t speak for others, but to me, the “fuss” on this topic is that we’ve gone from rampant deflation hysteria six months ago to firmly positive inflation now. The YOY numbers you cited tend to smooth over recent rates of change which can be seen in the CPI or in the more up to date inflation measure coming from MIT (fyi, the timeline on the MIT chart is created automatically so I picked the same timeline for the cpi chart):

[img_assist|nid=14686|title=cpi|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=216]

[img_assist|nid=14687|title=bpp|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=360]

Additionally, there has been notably faster inflation in food and energy prices, though some of that has not yet leaked through to the consumer level. A major premise of “inflationists” (at least of mine) has been that inflation will not likely be across the board but will probably be more apparent in items that are in shorter supply, that people need, and that are sought after globally. So a rise in food and energy prices alongside a flatter core CPI may seem like a more significant development to us than to you.

So that’s what the fuss is about, to the extent there is a fuss. That said I agree I certainly that current levels of inflation are not super problematic, at least not in this country. I think the idea here is to try to understand what current trends imply for the future.

Personally, I don’t believe this is the “big one”… I think it’s coming, but not until after our foreign creditors panic.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdduuuude]Been out of town for a week. Good discussion here. Just for fun, I looked at the actual inflation rates:

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp

Not sure what all the fuss is about. I can’t say I consider a range of 1.14% to 2.63% more than marginally inflationary?

Seems like a whole lot of nuthin’ to me.
[/quote]

I can’t speak for others, but to me, the “fuss” on this topic is that we’ve gone from rampant deflation hysteria six months ago to firmly positive inflation now. The YOY numbers you cited tend to smooth over recent rates of change which can be seen in the CPI or in the more up to date inflation measure coming from MIT (fyi, the timeline on the MIT chart is created automatically so I picked the same timeline for the cpi chart):

[img_assist|nid=14686|title=cpi|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=216]

[img_assist|nid=14687|title=bpp|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=360]

Additionally, there has been notably faster inflation in food and energy prices, though some of that has not yet leaked through to the consumer level. A major premise of “inflationists” (at least of mine) has been that inflation will not likely be across the board but will probably be more apparent in items that are in shorter supply, that people need, and that are sought after globally. So a rise in food and energy prices alongside a flatter core CPI may seem like a more significant development to us than to you.

So that’s what the fuss is about, to the extent there is a fuss. That said I agree I certainly that current levels of inflation are not super problematic, at least not in this country. I think the idea here is to try to understand what current trends imply for the future.

Personally, I don’t believe this is the “big one”… I think it’s coming, but not until after our foreign creditors panic.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdduuuude]Been out of town for a week. Good discussion here. Just for fun, I looked at the actual inflation rates:

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp

Not sure what all the fuss is about. I can’t say I consider a range of 1.14% to 2.63% more than marginally inflationary?

Seems like a whole lot of nuthin’ to me.
[/quote]

I can’t speak for others, but to me, the “fuss” on this topic is that we’ve gone from rampant deflation hysteria six months ago to firmly positive inflation now. The YOY numbers you cited tend to smooth over recent rates of change which can be seen in the CPI or in the more up to date inflation measure coming from MIT (fyi, the timeline on the MIT chart is created automatically so I picked the same timeline for the cpi chart):

[img_assist|nid=14686|title=cpi|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=216]

[img_assist|nid=14687|title=bpp|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=360]

Additionally, there has been notably faster inflation in food and energy prices, though some of that has not yet leaked through to the consumer level. A major premise of “inflationists” (at least of mine) has been that inflation will not likely be across the board but will probably be more apparent in items that are in shorter supply, that people need, and that are sought after globally. So a rise in food and energy prices alongside a flatter core CPI may seem like a more significant development to us than to you.

So that’s what the fuss is about, to the extent there is a fuss. That said I agree I certainly that current levels of inflation are not super problematic, at least not in this country. I think the idea here is to try to understand what current trends imply for the future.

Personally, I don’t believe this is the “big one”… I think it’s coming, but not until after our foreign creditors panic.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdduuuude]Been out of town for a week. Good discussion here. Just for fun, I looked at the actual inflation rates:

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp

Not sure what all the fuss is about. I can’t say I consider a range of 1.14% to 2.63% more than marginally inflationary?

Seems like a whole lot of nuthin’ to me.
[/quote]

I can’t speak for others, but to me, the “fuss” on this topic is that we’ve gone from rampant deflation hysteria six months ago to firmly positive inflation now. The YOY numbers you cited tend to smooth over recent rates of change which can be seen in the CPI or in the more up to date inflation measure coming from MIT (fyi, the timeline on the MIT chart is created automatically so I picked the same timeline for the cpi chart):

[img_assist|nid=14686|title=cpi|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=216]

[img_assist|nid=14687|title=bpp|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=360]

Additionally, there has been notably faster inflation in food and energy prices, though some of that has not yet leaked through to the consumer level. A major premise of “inflationists” (at least of mine) has been that inflation will not likely be across the board but will probably be more apparent in items that are in shorter supply, that people need, and that are sought after globally. So a rise in food and energy prices alongside a flatter core CPI may seem like a more significant development to us than to you.

So that’s what the fuss is about, to the extent there is a fuss. That said I agree I certainly that current levels of inflation are not super problematic, at least not in this country. I think the idea here is to try to understand what current trends imply for the future.

Personally, I don’t believe this is the “big one”… I think it’s coming, but not until after our foreign creditors panic.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=socrattt]
You just made me laugh out loud!! You can go to http://www.ifluffnumbers.com and I have next weeks lottery numbers up there as well. If you think for one moment that inflation is dormant you may need a psychiatric evaluation.

You’ll be riding your bicycle to the store to pick up your $10 gallon of milk and $7 loaf of bread by the end of year and you’ll still turn to your inflation data site thinking it’s a “whole lot of nuthin”. That’s just pathetic that you even put that link on here. They must have an app for that![/quote]

Totally weak reply… he brings data, you bring a personal attack. Raise the bar! If you think the data he cites is invalid, bring your own data to the table and explain why, don’t just call him names.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=socrattt]
You just made me laugh out loud!! You can go to http://www.ifluffnumbers.com and I have next weeks lottery numbers up there as well. If you think for one moment that inflation is dormant you may need a psychiatric evaluation.

You’ll be riding your bicycle to the store to pick up your $10 gallon of milk and $7 loaf of bread by the end of year and you’ll still turn to your inflation data site thinking it’s a “whole lot of nuthin”. That’s just pathetic that you even put that link on here. They must have an app for that![/quote]

Totally weak reply… he brings data, you bring a personal attack. Raise the bar! If you think the data he cites is invalid, bring your own data to the table and explain why, don’t just call him names.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=socrattt]
You just made me laugh out loud!! You can go to http://www.ifluffnumbers.com and I have next weeks lottery numbers up there as well. If you think for one moment that inflation is dormant you may need a psychiatric evaluation.

You’ll be riding your bicycle to the store to pick up your $10 gallon of milk and $7 loaf of bread by the end of year and you’ll still turn to your inflation data site thinking it’s a “whole lot of nuthin”. That’s just pathetic that you even put that link on here. They must have an app for that![/quote]

Totally weak reply… he brings data, you bring a personal attack. Raise the bar! If you think the data he cites is invalid, bring your own data to the table and explain why, don’t just call him names.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=socrattt]
You just made me laugh out loud!! You can go to http://www.ifluffnumbers.com and I have next weeks lottery numbers up there as well. If you think for one moment that inflation is dormant you may need a psychiatric evaluation.

You’ll be riding your bicycle to the store to pick up your $10 gallon of milk and $7 loaf of bread by the end of year and you’ll still turn to your inflation data site thinking it’s a “whole lot of nuthin”. That’s just pathetic that you even put that link on here. They must have an app for that![/quote]

Totally weak reply… he brings data, you bring a personal attack. Raise the bar! If you think the data he cites is invalid, bring your own data to the table and explain why, don’t just call him names.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=socrattt]
You just made me laugh out loud!! You can go to http://www.ifluffnumbers.com and I have next weeks lottery numbers up there as well. If you think for one moment that inflation is dormant you may need a psychiatric evaluation.

You’ll be riding your bicycle to the store to pick up your $10 gallon of milk and $7 loaf of bread by the end of year and you’ll still turn to your inflation data site thinking it’s a “whole lot of nuthin”. That’s just pathetic that you even put that link on here. They must have an app for that![/quote]

Totally weak reply… he brings data, you bring a personal attack. Raise the bar! If you think the data he cites is invalid, bring your own data to the table and explain why, don’t just call him names.

[Rich Toscano]

For an index (not actual rent levels) you can use bls.gov. Look for San Diego “rent of primary residence” in their inflation query engine.

[Author]

Posts