[Rich Toscano]

Thanks… it actually is google search (for this site only). I’d prefer it work, to make it easier for people to search… but you are right, probably not something to put a tone of time into.

In the meantime, for anyone missing the feature… if you just go to google and include:

site:piggington.com

in the search terms, it will limit results to this site.

[Rich Toscano]

Hmmm, it’s not working for me either. I will look into it this weekend… thanks for letting me know! You have a happy 2017 as well… 🙂

[Rich Toscano]

Haha, thanks… better (very) late than never I guess.

I am grateful to the excellent hosting provider I use (bit-box — run by a longtime pigg!) for helping me get this done.

[Rich Toscano]

PS – I’m not expressing an opinion on this legislation… I just like to make fun of Zero Hedge.

[Rich Toscano]

Here’s a screen grab:

[img_assist|nid=26142|title=zero hedge|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=450|height=314]

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=CA renter]
I’m not on twitter, so might be missing what they’re trying to communicate here (assuming that you’re indicating that they were wrong or not even-handed in their analysis)[/quote]

There’s no “analysis”… it’s just these 2 pictures side by side:

– A form to report fake news to Facebook (a private organization)
– A Nazi book-burning rally in WWII era Germany

That’s literally the whole thing.

[Rich Toscano]

Zero Hedge, always with the even-handed analysis: https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/809466335499612160

[Rich Toscano]

PS I just realized that my “path dependent” definition is why we also disagree on your scenario of selling before a potentially risky event, and immediately buying back in after it.

That’s completely path-dependent: it helps you if prices go down that day, and it hurts you if they go up. It’s got nothing to do with valuation or investment merits, it’s all about what the price is going to do on that one day. That’s why I mentally categorize it as market timing, because it’s all about the path of prices on that one day.

But of course “market timing” is just a concept and it’s possible to have different definitions for it. I see your point, that you aren’t really expressing a view in what prices are doing, so I can see why you don’t think that phrase applies.

So I could go either way on that one (and it doesn’t really matter anyway… you could have called it something entirely different and my original point on my first post would have remained). But not on the value investing thing from my last post… that is absolutely NOT market timing.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=AN][quote=masayako]2005-2008 housing crash is not a market timing call. As Rich said, “valuations were such that long-term risk/reward was very poor.”[/quote]It is a timing call because you have to live some where. You made a decision to sell and rent and hoping that you can buy back later at a lower price. How’s that any different than any other timing sell/buy? It’s just that housing is on a much longer cycle.If you timed it right, you sell at the exact peak and buy back at the exact bottom. If you timed it wrong, you could sell too early and buy back too late and not be that much better off. That is timing.
[/quote]

No. You are describing it like a market timer would, and maybe some people were thinking of it that way. In their case I guess you are right.

But as I already pointed out, the case I always made was based on valuations. Home valuations were 3.5 standard deviations over historical median. That’s it. It has nothing to do with cycle lengths, or picking peaks and troughs, or getting in at the top or bottom. It’s that I just don’t want to buy something that’s so overvalued. This is NOT market timing — it is just making investment decisions based on valuations.

Market timing is path dependent. Value investing is not; it’s just about the long term destination. You invest based on the prospective long term return and risk, and don’t pretend that you can reliably predict the path that will be taken to get to that destination. That’s the difference.

As far as “needing to live somewhere” — that has nothing to do with it; you can always choose to live in a rental if housing doesn’t seem like a good investment.

[Rich Toscano]

I think this probably sums it up:

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/daily-shouts/fleeing-president-trump-welcome-canada

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=AN]There’s a difference between trying to time the market by staying in cash for a long extended period time to buy and sell at the time you think its optimal and to not participate in the market for a few days while you wait for an event to occur that can potentially crater the market. Once the event happened, then you’d buy back in at whatever price it is. That’s not timing the market. That’s just remove risk from your portfolio for a short period of time.[/quote]

Ok, we can agree to disagree on what does and doesn’t count as “market timing,” but semantics aside, my original point remains. (Which was: whatever your position is on the matter shouldn’t change because someone guessed the short term market direction right one time).

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=AN]Because although one might not want to time the market, one should also constantly assess risk/reward. This past election is one of those event where we can do just that. I went 95%+ in cash because there was a big uncertainty. It can go horrible wrong like the Brexit and the market can be down a lot. It’s always best to sit in cash and wait. Especially if the immediate upside isn’t as great. I did buy back into the market the day after the election, seeing that the 1000 point lost in early trading goes positive at opening bell.

This is very similar to people who sell their house in 2005-2008.[/quote]

You’re defending market timing. That’s beside the point… my point was if you don’t believe in market timing, you’re not going to change your mind just because someone made a good guess one time.

As far as housing in 2005, I don’t see that as a good analogy. The reason to sell housing then was that it was really, really overpriced. Valuations were such that long-term risk/reward was very poor. It wasn’t a market timing call, like what’s being discussed here.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=flu][quote=masayako]It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested.[/quote]

you would have singing a different tune if things went the other way. just saying…[/quote]

I don’t see why he would be. He’s saying that guessing about short term market moves is not a good investing approach. I don’t see why that opinion should change on the basis of one correct guess.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=flyer]”Always buy, never sell” seems to have proven to be a good plan for many when it comes to real estate–especially in CA.[/quote]

I don’t know… the average buyer at the peak 11 years ago is still underwater, and in real terms they’ve taken a beating. Valuation matters…

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=poorgradstudent]At this point I think he just landed a triple jump over three Sharks. There may have been a ring of fire as well.[/quote]

I wouldn’t go so far as to say he landed it. 😉

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