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Rich ToscanoKeymasterI’m not aware of it, but I haven’t looked…
Rich ToscanoKeymasterYeah NSR, that’s a good description of the lagged effect I mentioned. It is pretty amazing how inefficient the process was (some combination of inexperience/understaffing plus probably some regulatory stuff).
Anyway as to this:
“Was it distressed inventory clearing or credit freeing up that drove the market back up? Serious question and I’m not being argumentative.”
I don’t know and I don’t really think that’s an answerable question. But as it happens, contingent inventory (short sales) started to drop at around the same time that the market began to recover. As to what caused what, I don’t know.
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=deadzone]Zero Hedge is far more interesting/entertaining than this site.[/quote]
In fairness, that’s not a very high bar.
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=barnaby33]Well at least this board hasn’t yet degenerated into Zerohedge, so we got that going for us.
Josh[/quote]If that ever happens I’ll shut the site down, burn the server, and bury it beneath 10 feet of reinforced concrete. Can’t be too careful…
Rich ToscanoKeymasterWow, duuude, sounds like you’ve really hit on a popular topic here.
Maybe I should make a new forum, titled something like “Home improvement and construction.” That way if you create a lot of posts on the topic, they will be easier to find in one place.
Anyone have feedback on that idea?
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=SK in CV]
The part that was a myth right after the crash, and we continued to hear it for years afterwards, was that lenders were secretly hiding their inventory, or at very least intentionally holding on to inventory until after the market recovered. They never did that. They were just (and remain) that horribly incompetent at managing distressed assets.[/quote]Agreed…
Rich ToscanoKeymasterI don’t think it was a myth right after the crash. There were a ton of homes in various stages of foreclosure that had not hit the market yet. That was the shadow inventory: homes that we knew were eventually coming to market, but that hadn’t yet shown up yet in the inventory stats.
And indeed, those foreclosures did slowly come to market, and it turns out that the market did not begin to recover until they were mostly gone. Nothing mythical or particularly mysterious about it.
But the idea that there is still “shadow inventory” that poses a big risk sounds preposterous to me. First, why would there still be shadow inventory, when those homes could have long since been sold at these juicily high valuations? Second, even if there were (highly doubtful), the only “risk” is that the housing market would have something closer to a decent and historically normal level of inventory.
Rich ToscanoKeymasterCool… very interesting!
Rich ToscanoKeymasterWow, for real, you tried it? That robot thinger is so cool.
I am generally un-handy and know nothing about this sort of thing. But lately I’ve been harboring a fantasy that it might be cool buy a property along the Tecolote Canyon ridge in west Clairemont, and replace the existing house (most of them are small 1960s numbers) with a nice modern open-plan house. That would result in a killer, modern home on a property with a spectacular nature-y view, right on a great walking/biking trail I go to all the time, for a cost that’s not TOO much more (I think?) than our current Bay Park house.
My girlfriend says it’s way too much hassle and I think she may be right. Reading this thread reinforces that idea… the permitting alone sounds nightmarish. But, it’s fun to think about.
One thing I thought was that if I could find a good prefab home with a design I like, it would simplify things a lot. Fewer choices/decisions to make. They seem expensive though. The robot house kinda reminded me of that, though I guess that’s a lot more customized.
Rich ToscanoKeymasterWelcome back.
(I don’t have any useful info for you, just wanted to say that).
Rich ToscanoKeymasterI feel like people aren’t making enough fun of the video.
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=spdrun]They lost their jobs either due to:
(a) globalization or innovation
(b) being in an industry that didn’t make economic sense: i.e. building homes out in Desertcrack, NVThe crisis didn’t affect jobs that were actually needed.[/quote]
That’s basically ridiculous.
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=spdrun]I wasn’t scared when markets were falling in 2008. I immediately thought “cool beans, buying opportunity.”
It wasn’t a crisis as much as a correction — practically speaking, you realize that buyers will jump in eventually. Happens during/after every correction.[/quote]
So, your argument is that because you weren’t “scared,” the financial crisis was no big deal? Like, to all the people who lost their jobs and stuff? This is the argument you are making?
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=spdrun]The crash was only scary for idiots who didn’t engage their brain before signing on the dotted line in 2005 to 2007.[/quote]
I guess you didn’t hear about that little incident known as the Global Financial Crisis.
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