[raptorduck]

Even with the knife still falling, I don’t think we will hit $250-$300/sf in FBR, Santaluz, other parts of RSF or CV. $400/sf is possible in these markets I suppose. Up here in the Bay Area, in the areas I am looking in, I think $600/sf is possible.

Either way, I am speculating about something with great variation. The reality in FBR today is $500+/sf for the most part. In Santaluz it is slightly more than that (which suggests Santaluz is overpriced significantly because neither the area or homes are FBR level). Cielo is running in the $450-$500/sf range, and most vulnerable to dropping further than other areas in RSF are. Meadows Del Mar is running in the $550/sf range these days. IMHO, very overpriced for what you get, great house, but tiny lot. So there is a ways to go to get to the $400/sf range. There are always some real bargains, usually fixer uppers that are not updated, which can be more frequently found in older neighborhoods and the Covenant.

Lot sizes are more difficult to compare on a $/sf basis. You can really only do so within particular areas, such as FBR, Santaluz, Meadows, Cielo etc. Those areas tend to be zoned uniformally so that lot sizes in each are similar in size. You see the most variation in lot sizes in the Covenant, which also has the largest lots on average. You see the least in Meadows Del Mar, or any other neighborhood in CV. On a per sf basis, the value of that lot depends on where it is, of course. An acre of land on the beach in Del Mar, well, I shutter to think what it must be worth. An Acre in Cielo, in one of the few lots with no view, an order of magnitude less or more.

So I don’t compare lot sizes as much as I compare areas. If I could find a 6,000sf+ house on the beach in Del Mar with no less than an acre at a price I could afford, that is where I would be. But I can’t. So for me, so far, I have ranked the areas I am looking in order of favorite and best buy as FBR South Gate, FBR North Gate, Rancho Santa Fe Farms, Rancho Valencia, the Covenant, Santaluz, Cielo, Meadows Del Mar, Fairbanks Highlands, Mendiola street area, Del Mar Mesa, Del Mar Meadows.

I think even the last place area is nice, else I would not look there. I suspect most likely I will end up somewhere up until Meadows Del Mar. The remaining areas don’t offer large enough houses and are more McMansionish, though the neighborhoods are very nice. If Fairbanks Highlands had larger and more custom homes, it would be a great option for me. I really liked that neighborhood and it was a perfect location for commuting and convenience, basically inbetween CV and RSF.

Notice I have not looked at either the Crosby or the Bridges. I don’t play golf and these areas are less geared towards families with small children than the rest of RSF.

BTW. If you want real hard data rather than my own speculation based on my limited experience looking at certain houses in certain price ranges of certain sizes in certain areas, then SD Realtor or Rustico are your guys to ask.

[raptorduck]

fat_lazy and ucodogen. I will put in my 2 cent to the rich paying no taxes side thread.

I don’t claim to be rich by any means, but I have been an AMT taxpayer for a decade and I have a very very good accountant. I have no deductions/exemptions (via either AMT exclusion or regular tax rate phase out), no loopholes, and pay way too much tax as a percentage of my income. 35% is only the begining, since you don’t have the write offs you would have with a lower tax bracket.

Indeed, I bought into the whole “rich” don’t pay taxes thing my whole life until I made enough money to not only realize that is a bunch of crap, but to conclude that the rich pay way to much of the tax liablility in this country.

I am not crying publically here, but that notion is simply not ture. The opposite is. Seeing how many $$ I inject into our government bank account makes me that much more sensitive about what the government does with it.

I heard our governor say at his state of the state address that we should not rely so much on wealthy Californian’s paying so much of our state budget through their high taxes. His point was that, if the rich have a bad year, so does California and California’s health should not depend on a few wealthy Californians.

Again I don’t consider myself rich my any means, but I would not want to stick it further to those I do consider rich. Those are the folks who own the companies that employ us. Their contributions to the economy provide job opportunities for others and inject lots of $$ into our economy through a free market system, which improves the standard of living. Taking from them and giving it to an inefficiently run government will not make things better for us.

Ok. I was preaching. Apologies. Preaching always involves ad hominum generalizations to make a point, which begs rhetorical response. I will stop now.

[raptorduck]

fat_lazy and ucodogen. I will put in my 2 cent to the rich paying no taxes side thread.

I don’t claim to be rich by any means, but I have been an AMT taxpayer for a decade and I have a very very good accountant. I have no deductions/exemptions (via either AMT exclusion or regular tax rate phase out), no loopholes, and pay way too much tax as a percentage of my income. 35% is only the begining, since you don’t have the write offs you would have with a lower tax bracket.

Indeed, I bought into the whole “rich” don’t pay taxes thing my whole life until I made enough money to not only realize that is a bunch of crap, but to conclude that the rich pay way to much of the tax liablility in this country.

I am not crying publically here, but that notion is simply not ture. The opposite is. Seeing how many $$ I inject into our government bank account makes me that much more sensitive about what the government does with it.

I heard our governor say at his state of the state address that we should not rely so much on wealthy Californian’s paying so much of our state budget through their high taxes. His point was that, if the rich have a bad year, so does California and California’s health should not depend on a few wealthy Californians.

Again I don’t consider myself rich my any means, but I would not want to stick it further to those I do consider rich. Those are the folks who own the companies that employ us. Their contributions to the economy provide job opportunities for others and inject lots of $$ into our economy through a free market system, which improves the standard of living. Taking from them and giving it to an inefficiently run government will not make things better for us.

Ok. I was preaching. Apologies. Preaching always involves ad hominum generalizations to make a point, which begs rhetorical response. I will stop now.

[raptorduck]

fat_lazy and ucodogen. I will put in my 2 cent to the rich paying no taxes side thread.

I don’t claim to be rich by any means, but I have been an AMT taxpayer for a decade and I have a very very good accountant. I have no deductions/exemptions (via either AMT exclusion or regular tax rate phase out), no loopholes, and pay way too much tax as a percentage of my income. 35% is only the begining, since you don’t have the write offs you would have with a lower tax bracket.

Indeed, I bought into the whole “rich” don’t pay taxes thing my whole life until I made enough money to not only realize that is a bunch of crap, but to conclude that the rich pay way to much of the tax liablility in this country.

I am not crying publically here, but that notion is simply not ture. The opposite is. Seeing how many $$ I inject into our government bank account makes me that much more sensitive about what the government does with it.

I heard our governor say at his state of the state address that we should not rely so much on wealthy Californian’s paying so much of our state budget through their high taxes. His point was that, if the rich have a bad year, so does California and California’s health should not depend on a few wealthy Californians.

Again I don’t consider myself rich my any means, but I would not want to stick it further to those I do consider rich. Those are the folks who own the companies that employ us. Their contributions to the economy provide job opportunities for others and inject lots of $$ into our economy through a free market system, which improves the standard of living. Taking from them and giving it to an inefficiently run government will not make things better for us.

Ok. I was preaching. Apologies. Preaching always involves ad hominum generalizations to make a point, which begs rhetorical response. I will stop now.

[raptorduck]

fat_lazy and ucodogen. I will put in my 2 cent to the rich paying no taxes side thread.

I don’t claim to be rich by any means, but I have been an AMT taxpayer for a decade and I have a very very good accountant. I have no deductions/exemptions (via either AMT exclusion or regular tax rate phase out), no loopholes, and pay way too much tax as a percentage of my income. 35% is only the begining, since you don’t have the write offs you would have with a lower tax bracket.

Indeed, I bought into the whole “rich” don’t pay taxes thing my whole life until I made enough money to not only realize that is a bunch of crap, but to conclude that the rich pay way to much of the tax liablility in this country.

I am not crying publically here, but that notion is simply not ture. The opposite is. Seeing how many $$ I inject into our government bank account makes me that much more sensitive about what the government does with it.

I heard our governor say at his state of the state address that we should not rely so much on wealthy Californian’s paying so much of our state budget through their high taxes. His point was that, if the rich have a bad year, so does California and California’s health should not depend on a few wealthy Californians.

Again I don’t consider myself rich my any means, but I would not want to stick it further to those I do consider rich. Those are the folks who own the companies that employ us. Their contributions to the economy provide job opportunities for others and inject lots of $$ into our economy through a free market system, which improves the standard of living. Taking from them and giving it to an inefficiently run government will not make things better for us.

Ok. I was preaching. Apologies. Preaching always involves ad hominum generalizations to make a point, which begs rhetorical response. I will stop now.

[raptorduck]

fat_lazy and ucodogen. I will put in my 2 cent to the rich paying no taxes side thread.

I don’t claim to be rich by any means, but I have been an AMT taxpayer for a decade and I have a very very good accountant. I have no deductions/exemptions (via either AMT exclusion or regular tax rate phase out), no loopholes, and pay way too much tax as a percentage of my income. 35% is only the begining, since you don’t have the write offs you would have with a lower tax bracket.

Indeed, I bought into the whole “rich” don’t pay taxes thing my whole life until I made enough money to not only realize that is a bunch of crap, but to conclude that the rich pay way to much of the tax liablility in this country.

I am not crying publically here, but that notion is simply not ture. The opposite is. Seeing how many $$ I inject into our government bank account makes me that much more sensitive about what the government does with it.

I heard our governor say at his state of the state address that we should not rely so much on wealthy Californian’s paying so much of our state budget through their high taxes. His point was that, if the rich have a bad year, so does California and California’s health should not depend on a few wealthy Californians.

Again I don’t consider myself rich my any means, but I would not want to stick it further to those I do consider rich. Those are the folks who own the companies that employ us. Their contributions to the economy provide job opportunities for others and inject lots of $$ into our economy through a free market system, which improves the standard of living. Taking from them and giving it to an inefficiently run government will not make things better for us.

Ok. I was preaching. Apologies. Preaching always involves ad hominum generalizations to make a point, which begs rhetorical response. I will stop now.

[raptorduck]

I have. In fact, I have done all kinds of different comparisons: price/sf for lot, house, build quality, bedrooms, size of garage, amenities/upgrades/finishes etc, schools, angle vs sun, attractiveness of neighbors, you name it. It is the nerd in me.

I just picked $/sf for size as a convenient way to compare these homes. It is very hard to compare homes in different neighborhoods in terms of price, let alone towns. It is easier to compare FBR homes to other FBR homes or Cielo to Cielo etc in terms of price.

As for quality, that is much easier to do. I have referred to a house up here that is over 6,000sf and under $5m, which makes it very very cheap for the size as that price usually gets you 4,000-5,000sf and that size usually costs over $6m-$8m due to >5k sf being so rare here. But the build quality of the house is very low, lot very odd shapped, location horrible (on top of a major freeway, literally), and design a boring box.

Homes in Cielo also vary a bit in build quality. The huge one above is not horrible build quality and design, but it is lower than any other house I have seen there and some have outstanding build quality. Santaluz seems to have very high build quality. FBR, though older also has very high build quality. The covenant seems to vary quite a bit as well. And I am speaking of build quality, not finishes (ie. fully loaded vs. spartin).

The lot sizes of the homes I listed above are generally around 1-2 acres, except for Los Altos, where they run .25-.5 acres. Indeed, homes in Meadows Del Mar in CV are about as expensive as RSF and Santaluz in $/sf or more so, but the lots are .5 acres or less for the most part. What you loose in lot size, you gain in commute and other conveniences.

Alas, I prefer that large lot for privacy. My current lot is a whopping 4,000sf with a 2,600sf 4br house on it. Not only can I see my neighbor’s house, I can hear him breathing, burping, sneezing, an snoring. At least it is a corner lot and he is a good neighbor, but I want and need as far away from that as possible.

And at 18 yrs old, it is considered a newer home up here. Go figure. It is about the exact kind of house and neighborhood you would find in some older parts of CV. In fact, I bought it while I lived in CV and did so because it was the only neighborhood up here that made me feel like I was still in CV.

[raptorduck]

I have. In fact, I have done all kinds of different comparisons: price/sf for lot, house, build quality, bedrooms, size of garage, amenities/upgrades/finishes etc, schools, angle vs sun, attractiveness of neighbors, you name it. It is the nerd in me.

I just picked $/sf for size as a convenient way to compare these homes. It is very hard to compare homes in different neighborhoods in terms of price, let alone towns. It is easier to compare FBR homes to other FBR homes or Cielo to Cielo etc in terms of price.

As for quality, that is much easier to do. I have referred to a house up here that is over 6,000sf and under $5m, which makes it very very cheap for the size as that price usually gets you 4,000-5,000sf and that size usually costs over $6m-$8m due to >5k sf being so rare here. But the build quality of the house is very low, lot very odd shapped, location horrible (on top of a major freeway, literally), and design a boring box.

Homes in Cielo also vary a bit in build quality. The huge one above is not horrible build quality and design, but it is lower than any other house I have seen there and some have outstanding build quality. Santaluz seems to have very high build quality. FBR, though older also has very high build quality. The covenant seems to vary quite a bit as well. And I am speaking of build quality, not finishes (ie. fully loaded vs. spartin).

The lot sizes of the homes I listed above are generally around 1-2 acres, except for Los Altos, where they run .25-.5 acres. Indeed, homes in Meadows Del Mar in CV are about as expensive as RSF and Santaluz in $/sf or more so, but the lots are .5 acres or less for the most part. What you loose in lot size, you gain in commute and other conveniences.

Alas, I prefer that large lot for privacy. My current lot is a whopping 4,000sf with a 2,600sf 4br house on it. Not only can I see my neighbor’s house, I can hear him breathing, burping, sneezing, an snoring. At least it is a corner lot and he is a good neighbor, but I want and need as far away from that as possible.

And at 18 yrs old, it is considered a newer home up here. Go figure. It is about the exact kind of house and neighborhood you would find in some older parts of CV. In fact, I bought it while I lived in CV and did so because it was the only neighborhood up here that made me feel like I was still in CV.

[raptorduck]

I have. In fact, I have done all kinds of different comparisons: price/sf for lot, house, build quality, bedrooms, size of garage, amenities/upgrades/finishes etc, schools, angle vs sun, attractiveness of neighbors, you name it. It is the nerd in me.

I just picked $/sf for size as a convenient way to compare these homes. It is very hard to compare homes in different neighborhoods in terms of price, let alone towns. It is easier to compare FBR homes to other FBR homes or Cielo to Cielo etc in terms of price.

As for quality, that is much easier to do. I have referred to a house up here that is over 6,000sf and under $5m, which makes it very very cheap for the size as that price usually gets you 4,000-5,000sf and that size usually costs over $6m-$8m due to >5k sf being so rare here. But the build quality of the house is very low, lot very odd shapped, location horrible (on top of a major freeway, literally), and design a boring box.

Homes in Cielo also vary a bit in build quality. The huge one above is not horrible build quality and design, but it is lower than any other house I have seen there and some have outstanding build quality. Santaluz seems to have very high build quality. FBR, though older also has very high build quality. The covenant seems to vary quite a bit as well. And I am speaking of build quality, not finishes (ie. fully loaded vs. spartin).

The lot sizes of the homes I listed above are generally around 1-2 acres, except for Los Altos, where they run .25-.5 acres. Indeed, homes in Meadows Del Mar in CV are about as expensive as RSF and Santaluz in $/sf or more so, but the lots are .5 acres or less for the most part. What you loose in lot size, you gain in commute and other conveniences.

Alas, I prefer that large lot for privacy. My current lot is a whopping 4,000sf with a 2,600sf 4br house on it. Not only can I see my neighbor’s house, I can hear him breathing, burping, sneezing, an snoring. At least it is a corner lot and he is a good neighbor, but I want and need as far away from that as possible.

And at 18 yrs old, it is considered a newer home up here. Go figure. It is about the exact kind of house and neighborhood you would find in some older parts of CV. In fact, I bought it while I lived in CV and did so because it was the only neighborhood up here that made me feel like I was still in CV.

[raptorduck]

I have. In fact, I have done all kinds of different comparisons: price/sf for lot, house, build quality, bedrooms, size of garage, amenities/upgrades/finishes etc, schools, angle vs sun, attractiveness of neighbors, you name it. It is the nerd in me.

I just picked $/sf for size as a convenient way to compare these homes. It is very hard to compare homes in different neighborhoods in terms of price, let alone towns. It is easier to compare FBR homes to other FBR homes or Cielo to Cielo etc in terms of price.

As for quality, that is much easier to do. I have referred to a house up here that is over 6,000sf and under $5m, which makes it very very cheap for the size as that price usually gets you 4,000-5,000sf and that size usually costs over $6m-$8m due to >5k sf being so rare here. But the build quality of the house is very low, lot very odd shapped, location horrible (on top of a major freeway, literally), and design a boring box.

Homes in Cielo also vary a bit in build quality. The huge one above is not horrible build quality and design, but it is lower than any other house I have seen there and some have outstanding build quality. Santaluz seems to have very high build quality. FBR, though older also has very high build quality. The covenant seems to vary quite a bit as well. And I am speaking of build quality, not finishes (ie. fully loaded vs. spartin).

The lot sizes of the homes I listed above are generally around 1-2 acres, except for Los Altos, where they run .25-.5 acres. Indeed, homes in Meadows Del Mar in CV are about as expensive as RSF and Santaluz in $/sf or more so, but the lots are .5 acres or less for the most part. What you loose in lot size, you gain in commute and other conveniences.

Alas, I prefer that large lot for privacy. My current lot is a whopping 4,000sf with a 2,600sf 4br house on it. Not only can I see my neighbor’s house, I can hear him breathing, burping, sneezing, an snoring. At least it is a corner lot and he is a good neighbor, but I want and need as far away from that as possible.

And at 18 yrs old, it is considered a newer home up here. Go figure. It is about the exact kind of house and neighborhood you would find in some older parts of CV. In fact, I bought it while I lived in CV and did so because it was the only neighborhood up here that made me feel like I was still in CV.

[raptorduck]

I have. In fact, I have done all kinds of different comparisons: price/sf for lot, house, build quality, bedrooms, size of garage, amenities/upgrades/finishes etc, schools, angle vs sun, attractiveness of neighbors, you name it. It is the nerd in me.

I just picked $/sf for size as a convenient way to compare these homes. It is very hard to compare homes in different neighborhoods in terms of price, let alone towns. It is easier to compare FBR homes to other FBR homes or Cielo to Cielo etc in terms of price.

As for quality, that is much easier to do. I have referred to a house up here that is over 6,000sf and under $5m, which makes it very very cheap for the size as that price usually gets you 4,000-5,000sf and that size usually costs over $6m-$8m due to >5k sf being so rare here. But the build quality of the house is very low, lot very odd shapped, location horrible (on top of a major freeway, literally), and design a boring box.

Homes in Cielo also vary a bit in build quality. The huge one above is not horrible build quality and design, but it is lower than any other house I have seen there and some have outstanding build quality. Santaluz seems to have very high build quality. FBR, though older also has very high build quality. The covenant seems to vary quite a bit as well. And I am speaking of build quality, not finishes (ie. fully loaded vs. spartin).

The lot sizes of the homes I listed above are generally around 1-2 acres, except for Los Altos, where they run .25-.5 acres. Indeed, homes in Meadows Del Mar in CV are about as expensive as RSF and Santaluz in $/sf or more so, but the lots are .5 acres or less for the most part. What you loose in lot size, you gain in commute and other conveniences.

Alas, I prefer that large lot for privacy. My current lot is a whopping 4,000sf with a 2,600sf 4br house on it. Not only can I see my neighbor’s house, I can hear him breathing, burping, sneezing, an snoring. At least it is a corner lot and he is a good neighbor, but I want and need as far away from that as possible.

And at 18 yrs old, it is considered a newer home up here. Go figure. It is about the exact kind of house and neighborhood you would find in some older parts of CV. In fact, I bought it while I lived in CV and did so because it was the only neighborhood up here that made me feel like I was still in CV.

[raptorduck]

The big question is will the RE market downturn stop now, particilarly in SD. I suspect here, it will, as it won’t take much here to stop a modest slow down in the markets I am interested in.

I can certainly see selling agents saying how this will drive prices up now, so they will not consider anything below asking.

Government intervention. Got to love government intervention. I am a Chicago School economist. Nuff said.

[raptorduck]

The big question is will the RE market downturn stop now, particilarly in SD. I suspect here, it will, as it won’t take much here to stop a modest slow down in the markets I am interested in.

I can certainly see selling agents saying how this will drive prices up now, so they will not consider anything below asking.

Government intervention. Got to love government intervention. I am a Chicago School economist. Nuff said.

[raptorduck]

The big question is will the RE market downturn stop now, particilarly in SD. I suspect here, it will, as it won’t take much here to stop a modest slow down in the markets I am interested in.

I can certainly see selling agents saying how this will drive prices up now, so they will not consider anything below asking.

Government intervention. Got to love government intervention. I am a Chicago School economist. Nuff said.

[raptorduck]

The big question is will the RE market downturn stop now, particilarly in SD. I suspect here, it will, as it won’t take much here to stop a modest slow down in the markets I am interested in.

I can certainly see selling agents saying how this will drive prices up now, so they will not consider anything below asking.

Government intervention. Got to love government intervention. I am a Chicago School economist. Nuff said.

[Author]

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