[rankandfile]

We must not forget that most of us Piggingtonians are salmon swimming upstream. I agree that things will get worse this winter. However, there are many forces working against us. There are many factions that want, and need, to see home prices NOT fall dramatically (as they should). Realtors, banks, politicans, government, media outlets, developers, contractors, etc. They just have too much invested in it. I truly feel that we are in the minority.

I am not saying that things will continue to get worse at a faster rate. I am merely saying that there are many in powerful positions that will try to keep this thing from dropping too far too fast. A Fed interest rate cut or two, dropping oil prices, substantial incentives on autos, the classic media-real estate propaganda, and more will all be employed in full force.

We already see it going on around us. Every normal-thinking person has at least some idea that homes are overpriced, and that they can’t realistically afford them without incurring major long-term debt. Yet, even as prices have more than tripled in some places, we are still being told by some sources that there is just a mild correction taking place – that prices will start going back up again in the spring! Hey, I don’t mind an asset appreciating. My only concern is that wages simply aren’t keeping pace. If I earned 3-4 times what I am currently earning I’d be more than happy to purchase a home at current prices. The money has to come from somewhere, right?

[rankandfile]

I was speaking with a young realtor today. We didn’t intend to speak about housing, but it veered that way when he mentioned that he was looking to renew his real estate license. I said something to the effect that the times are getting tougher and tougher for realtors (I have no shame). I qualified it by saying that these days are tougher compared to a few years ago when you plopped a sign in the front yard and the property sold in a couple days.

He retorted that this was a good time to buy because of the lower interest rates. I really get a kick out of statements like that. I basically said to him that I don’t quite agree with that statement and he backed off a bit by saying that it was at least better than when interest rates were higher. He also conceded that prices HAD to come down because they were out of control.

[rankandfile]

So what’s your point? For every 1 blog out there that is pro-housing bubble, there were EASILY 10-15 news or other media outlets raving about how home prices will continue to rise. Maybe some of us do have a bit of a sour grapes attitude. I think that many of us are just using common sense when looking at what’s going on in the housing market.

I personally wanted to buy years ago, but held out for something better. How was I to know that the market would skyrocket to proportions never seen before? It seemed that every month there was another 25% increase in housing prices. Part of me said to jump on the escalator. The other part said hold on a second, there’s something not right here. If you had told me then that the skyrocketing would last for almost 10 years, I would have jumped on the escalator.

The escalator is slowly moving in the other direction now. And you, along with millions of others, are in a similar (but opposite) position as we were when the bubble was building. I would answer your question with more questions: why do you seem to have a sour grapes attitude now that the situation is reversing? If you do not like the general disposition of this forum, why take the time and post here after you first visited it 2 years ago? Why not just glance at the forum topics, shake your head in disapproval, and move on?

I posit that you find yourself on the backside of a slippery slope that is falling home prices. Part of you wants to get off and sell. The other part says to stay the course, that there will be a soft landing. The problem is that there will be no soft landing and prices will decline significantly. You sound like a mirror image of me 10 years ago. I’ll be Doc Holiday and you can be Johnny Ringo.

[rankandfile]

Those statistics are revealing, but not terribly surprising. Do we honestly think that San Diego is a haven for working, middle-class families? As was previously posted, the majority of San Diego homeowners are likely older and past the point of child rearing. The child rearing demographic is either in college, living with the parents, packing a bowl on their way out to Pacific Beach, and/or living with 2 or more roommates and struggling just to earn a living. Many married couples have to have 2 incomes just to afford to live here.

As I have said numerous times on this forum, many young, educated middle class people and couples that I know have left San Diego or California altogether. They saw the writing on the wall and came to the realization that the Sunshine Tax, Traffic Congestion Tax, Illegal Immigrant Tax, and Housing Bubble Tax were just too big a price to pay.

Believe me, there are many things that I love about California. However, you have to look at it like any other product or service out there. In my opinion it is less and less desirable for middle class families to live and prosper here. SoCal has much more competition today than it did 30 or 40 years ago when it was THE place to be in the US. I think if home prices come down 50%, good paying jobs become more plentiful, traffic congestion is reduced, and state government adopts more tax and business-friendly policies, you’ll start to see more opportunities for middle class couples to raise a family here.

[rankandfile]

The $20 Cabbage Patch dolls that once sold for almost $1000 are slowly coming back down their original market price. Ther e’s a ton of inventory and nobody’s waiting in lines out the door to purchase one. High supply, low demand = lower prices.

Buying now would not be prudent in my estimation. Truly, I say to you, that there have been and will be many more, attempts by various factions to keep home prices from declining too fast and keep home sales strong. There are too many people that depend on it staying this way. Interest rate deductions, continued soft-landing arguments and rhetoric in the media, reduction in other commodities such as gas, etc. Yes, it sounds like a conspiracy theory, but those that can have some control of the markets by sheer purchase or production power have it in their best interests to keep the American consumer machine from seizing up.

I find it ironic that all of a sudden the effects of Katrina, the corroded pipeline in Alaska, and Mid East turmoil have had no effect on oil prices. It’s as though they have all been swept under the rug. For a number of years there it seems that if a bee farted in a whirlwind, the price of oil increased due to fears of a refinery going down. Now everything is hunky-dory. I think that there is interest by some groups out there to use this to offset the effects of the cooling housing market, improve Republican standing before the mid-term elections, and boost savings prior to the upcoming Christmas season. They’ve got to keep the ol’ consumption pump primed…can’t let the fuel (spending)levels get too low.

The best way to combat high, slowly-decreasing home prices in your market is to do business with their competition: rental units or moving to another market. As I’ve said before, we plan on giving the SoCal market a couple years to come back down to affordable levels. If is does not, we will move to Colorado or some other more affordable market where we can raise a family in a nice home with a nice yard and wave to our neighbors as we are mowing our big backyard.

[rankandfile]

As much as I disagree with Perry's Kool-Aid liberalism, I have to agree with him on this topic. Yes, Powayseller does post a lot. I would go as far as to say (as others have done already) that without her this forum would fade into obscurity. In order to objectively analyze this issue, one has to take into account the events that have occurred over the past 9 months or so. IMHO, the pivotal event here is the point at which Rich took a new job. You must forgive me as I don't recall the exact title of the new position or the date at which he acquired it. The chart below shows my own personal interest level (value index) in the Pigginton.com experience.

[img_assist|nid=1758|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=320]

 

It is worthy to mention that I was perhaps the most cynical critic that came forward when Rich mentioned that he was taking his new job position and that the website would change as a result. As I recall I cried words like, "censorship!" as Rich explained he would no longer be able to provide the same type and level of input that he used to.

For about 1 to 1.5 months after Rich made the announcement, I was proven wrong – the website content, in my opinion, got even better and I remember checking it out multiple times per day and making a lot of posts. Soon afterward, however, another pivotal event occurred – the one where Powayseller announced that she would basically be leaving Piggington (or severely reducing her role) and start her own venture…the outcome of which is still not known to me.

Around this point, or just prior, I found that my own personal interest in Piggington started to wane. Not all of this can be blamed on the content of the site itself. It was summertime, I had (and still have) a lot of work to do, and I had a vacation coming up in August.

Powayseller's post quantity seemed to briefly dip for a spell, but it seems that now she has come back posting more than ever. I personally don't mind it. The beauty of the internet is that another post or thread is only a click or two away. Here are my solutions to the issue:

1. I agree with other posters such as JES and ZK in that Powayseller should get her own category on this website…sort of like a show, or newspaper, contributor.
2. Perhaps Powayseller should get her own forum. She has so much to contribute that she could very well do this on her own. In fact, I personally wonder the exact reasons why this hasn't been done yet…all the time that she puts into researching markets and posting on various websites could go into creating her own website.
3. Rich needs to add content to the site more frequently. The first thing I look for when I come to this site is the date of Rich's last posting on the home page. If it is old, I am that much less likely to read on. My next step is to view the titles of the Active Forum Topics to see if they interest me.
4. Go to the User Forums link in the left pane. This will allow you to see the latest posts as well as sort posts by different categories, such as who created the post. This will enable you to more easily find posts from other people.

[rankandfile]

Brief, torrential rain events can cause flooding problems in the short term. However, I have heard that rainfall occurring over a much longer period can be even more problematic. It wasn’t just the shock of Great Depression that did all the damage. The prolonged period of poverty that occurred afterwards caused a lot of damage as well. The meteor that known to have killed off the dinosaurs actually didn’t. It was the dust and ash clouds that blocked out the sun that eventually extinguished them. The point is that many times the conditions after a shocking event can cause as much if not more damage than the event itself.

[rankandfile]

Perry and Daniel why did you both respond to the post by saying that you aren't going to dignify it with a reponse? Isn't that considered saying one thing and doing another? Why post a response at all?

[rankandfile]

CFO – you took the words out of my mouth. It is scum like this that gives hard-working, law-abiding Hispanics a bad name. I have heard many like you say that they are also tired of this BS…that this is the reason why they left Mexico in the first place. The only problem is that this country is being turned into Mexico.

[rankandfile]

Parler dans une langue différente que tout le monde n'est pas autrement toujours un signe d'une plus grande intelligence.

Speaking in a different language than everybody else is not always a sign of greater intelligence.

[rankandfile]

Don’t be misled. The enlargement of the program is all about money, plain and simple. The large corporations lobbying politicians for expansion of the provision stand to sustain or increase their profits by adding foreign-born engineers. It is well-known that these corporations can get away with paying foreign engineers much less. It’s all about the scratch, fellas.

The ironic thing is that the products that these large corporations produce are protected in the marketplace by tariffs. The government adds a tax to foreign products coming into the country to provide incentive to purchase the homegrown product. Why doesn’t the government assess a tariff or tax on foreign labor? Wouldn’t that be the right thing to do? Either that or get rid of tariffs altogether.

[rankandfile]

LAcrash – I think you may be confusing haiku with iambic pentameter. According to Wikipedia, five or even seven morae are acceptible. With that said, I was deeply moved by your haiku!

Here's my shot at it:

Want to live here in SoCal

But market has closed its doors

Will wait outside for a bit

And be patient with my cash

 

Homeprice graph on its side

Breast reduction in great need

Cannot purchase braziere

Big enough for large melon

 

If market no open doors

Within a couple of years

I will gather my family

And move to greener pastures (literally)

 

Breast reduction bad most times

But in this case very welcome

Oh please visit Doctor Rey

And bring back normal prices!

 

[rankandfile]

I think the main point is that we could be allocating our personal resources in places other than housing.  That extra 20% of our monthly income could be invested more wisely in sectors other than housing (construction, financials, realtor's BMW 740i, etc.).

I'd be very interested in seeing some numbers showing what percentage of people's monthly earnings actually went to illegal immigrants in the construction industry.  It is well known that many in the construction industry here in SoCal are here illegally, or being paid under the table, or both.  Could it be that the additional monthly expenditures for housing have actually hurt our economy because many of those dollars don't go back to the government in the form of taxes, or don't go into paying health care costs?  Would it add even more strain to many people who have to pay more for these services?

[rankandfile]

Mens sana in corpore sano

[rankandfile]

I never saw him before. He looked a bit like a disheveled trader at the end of a rough day. I was impressed with his knowledge and ability to express his views on the economy. He convinced me that this recent economic cycle will play out similar to the one in 2000-2001…that the recession will come faster than we think. I particularly liked the quote about when the US sneezes, the rest of the world gets a cold.

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