[PerryChase]

Another thing. I think that housing will track Iraq.

Whatever the percentage housing decline is, we won’t see a bottom until we’re out of iraq.

Also, there won’t be a bottom until we experience a recession. We’re now due for a recession, and I don’t believe that the Fed will, want to, or are capable, of engineering a safe landing of the general economy.

I’m not buying until:
1) recession hits (job losses will kill the new areas),
2) some Iraq resolution is worked out (so energy costs and risks are stabilized).

[PerryChase]

I agree with Ex-SD. Listen to Ex-SD, bugs and others who have seen the 1990s crash and have experience with declining values. Like Ex-SD suggested, look at redfin.com and sdlookup.com for price histories of houses 1986-1997 and 2000-2006. That will give your a good range of possiblities.

$750k will be plenty of money for that “forever” home you’re looking for in Encinitas.

Rent for at least 3 years and wait things out. Rein in the emotional desire to own and you’ll find a killer deal at the best price.

When people are positive and forward-looking, I’ve learned to discount whatever they say by 50%. People don’t have the income or the staying power that they project. Boasting is a human trait. I’ve been right every time.

As far as schools go, don’t worry about switching schools. Kids are more adaptable than you think. Change can be good and will teach your kids to be stronger.

Yes, congratulations on a smart decision. 🙂

[PerryChase]

I agree with Ex-SD. Listen to Ex-SD, bugs and others who have seen the 1990s crash and have experience with declining values. Like Ex-SD suggested, look at redfin.com and sdlookup.com for price histories of houses 1986-1997 and 2000-2006. That will give your a good range of possiblities.

$750k will be plenty of money for that “forever” home you’re looking for in Encinitas.

Rent for at least 3 years and wait things out. Rein in the emotional desire to own and you’ll find a killer deal at the best price.

When people are positive and forward-looking, I’ve learned to discount whatever they say by 50%. People don’t have the income or the staying power that they project. Boasting is a human trait. I’ve been right every time.

As far as schools go, don’t worry about switching schools. Kids are more adaptable than you think. Change can be good and will teach your kids to be stronger.

Yes, congratulations on a smart decision. 🙂

[PerryChase]

I agree with Ex-SD. Listen to Ex-SD, bugs and others who have seen the 1990s crash and have experience with declining values. Like Ex-SD suggested, look at redfin.com and sdlookup.com for price histories of houses 1986-1997 and 2000-2006. That will give your a good range of possiblities.

$750k will be plenty of money for that “forever” home you’re looking for in Encinitas.

Rent for at least 3 years and wait things out. Rein in the emotional desire to own and you’ll find a killer deal at the best price.

When people are positive and forward-looking, I’ve learned to discount whatever they say by 50%. People don’t have the income or the staying power that they project. Boasting is a human trait. I’ve been right every time.

As far as schools go, don’t worry about switching schools. Kids are more adaptable than you think. Change can be good and will teach your kids to be stronger.

Yes, congratulations on a smart decision. 🙂

[PerryChase]

I play ignorant when I talk to real estate people — just to see what kind of bull they try to pull.

This broker I know said “buy now before the rates go higher”, “there are great deals out there because of all the foreclosures.” He’s selling his 2006 Cayenne S. Anyone interested?

[PerryChase]

I play ignorant when I talk to real estate people — just to see what kind of bull they try to pull.

This broker I know said “buy now before the rates go higher”, “there are great deals out there because of all the foreclosures.” He’s selling his 2006 Cayenne S. Anyone interested?

[PerryChase]

I play ignorant when I talk to real estate people — just to see what kind of bull they try to pull.

This broker I know said “buy now before the rates go higher”, “there are great deals out there because of all the foreclosures.” He’s selling his 2006 Cayenne S. Anyone interested?

[PerryChase]

“the fear of the known may eventually prove itself worse than the fear of the unknown.”

I nominate this quote as one of the best of Piggington. Bugs gets best real estate commentary and temeculaguy gets best creative writing.

Let’s wait until late 2008 to find out the knowns that are now unknown. Did anyone notice that it gets a little worse as the known unknowns come to light?

[PerryChase]

“the fear of the known may eventually prove itself worse than the fear of the unknown.”

I nominate this quote as one of the best of Piggington. Bugs gets best real estate commentary and temeculaguy gets best creative writing.

Let’s wait until late 2008 to find out the knowns that are now unknown. Did anyone notice that it gets a little worse as the known unknowns come to light?

[PerryChase]

“the fear of the known may eventually prove itself worse than the fear of the unknown.”

I nominate this quote as one of the best of Piggington. Bugs gets best real estate commentary and temeculaguy gets best creative writing.

Let’s wait until late 2008 to find out the knowns that are now unknown. Did anyone notice that it gets a little worse as the known unknowns come to light?

[PerryChase]

Yes, formersandiegan, it could happen again. I understand what you mean now.

Some people here (not you) seem to think that Del Sur, 4S, Carlsbad and Carmel Valley will hold up better because they are new and “nice.” I think that the new tract homes areas will be hit hardest regardless of income because they are comprised mostly of buyers with little equity.

sdnativeson, I observed the same thing you did in the 1990s. You might be right this time about the middle class neighborhoods. In the 1990s the speculation was on the higher end with S&L loans. This time, the middle class speculated just as much or more.

[PerryChase]

Yes, formersandiegan, it could happen again. I understand what you mean now.

Some people here (not you) seem to think that Del Sur, 4S, Carlsbad and Carmel Valley will hold up better because they are new and “nice.” I think that the new tract homes areas will be hit hardest regardless of income because they are comprised mostly of buyers with little equity.

sdnativeson, I observed the same thing you did in the 1990s. You might be right this time about the middle class neighborhoods. In the 1990s the speculation was on the higher end with S&L loans. This time, the middle class speculated just as much or more.

[PerryChase]

Yes, formersandiegan, it could happen again. I understand what you mean now.

Some people here (not you) seem to think that Del Sur, 4S, Carlsbad and Carmel Valley will hold up better because they are new and “nice.” I think that the new tract homes areas will be hit hardest regardless of income because they are comprised mostly of buyers with little equity.

sdnativeson, I observed the same thing you did in the 1990s. You might be right this time about the middle class neighborhoods. In the 1990s the speculation was on the higher end with S&L loans. This time, the middle class speculated just as much or more.

[PerryChase]

powayseller predicted 50% default on those ARMs?

If owners walk like Cramer recommended they do, then we might just see 50% default rates 2/28.

I personally predited that people would walk from their houses rather than cut back and live on bread and water. Of course, they’ll keep the cars and credit cars and drop the house.

I think that economy is resilient and while we’ll get a general recession, the consumer will keep on spending throughout the housing depression. The consumer is an addict. He’ll cut back a little but he really can’t stop from buying junk.

I see the families shopping at Walmart and to them, buying junk is a feel good exercise. Buying plastic tubs, clothes and shoes made in China in affordable entertainment and luxury for them.

I didn’t used to believe in the affordable luxury concept but Starbucks proved me wrong.

[PerryChase]

powayseller predicted 50% default on those ARMs?

If owners walk like Cramer recommended they do, then we might just see 50% default rates 2/28.

I personally predited that people would walk from their houses rather than cut back and live on bread and water. Of course, they’ll keep the cars and credit cars and drop the house.

I think that economy is resilient and while we’ll get a general recession, the consumer will keep on spending throughout the housing depression. The consumer is an addict. He’ll cut back a little but he really can’t stop from buying junk.

I see the families shopping at Walmart and to them, buying junk is a feel good exercise. Buying plastic tubs, clothes and shoes made in China in affordable entertainment and luxury for them.

I didn’t used to believe in the affordable luxury concept but Starbucks proved me wrong.

[Author]

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