[patientrenter]

pfflyer, if you haven’t already done it, you may want to check out Rich’s Dec 26 post “October Case-Shiller Prices”. The picture says as much as anyone here knows, I suspect.

raptorduck, another poster looking for a high-end home, doesn’t appear to be in any rush, so I suspect he sees more downside potential for high-end prices than upside. But I’ll let him speak for himself.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

pfflyer, if you haven’t already done it, you may want to check out Rich’s Dec 26 post “October Case-Shiller Prices”. The picture says as much as anyone here knows, I suspect.

raptorduck, another poster looking for a high-end home, doesn’t appear to be in any rush, so I suspect he sees more downside potential for high-end prices than upside. But I’ll let him speak for himself.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

pfflyer, if you haven’t already done it, you may want to check out Rich’s Dec 26 post “October Case-Shiller Prices”. The picture says as much as anyone here knows, I suspect.

raptorduck, another poster looking for a high-end home, doesn’t appear to be in any rush, so I suspect he sees more downside potential for high-end prices than upside. But I’ll let him speak for himself.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

pfflyer, if you haven’t already done it, you may want to check out Rich’s Dec 26 post “October Case-Shiller Prices”. The picture says as much as anyone here knows, I suspect.

raptorduck, another poster looking for a high-end home, doesn’t appear to be in any rush, so I suspect he sees more downside potential for high-end prices than upside. But I’ll let him speak for himself.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Raybyrnes, I wasn’t clear in explaining why most first-time buyers now have to consider their home as a major investment as well as a home, and need to time the purchase. Let me give it another shot.

Let’s say you are 30, and are settling into your career, planning to save, settle down, etc. You feel the need to start planning for the rest of your life. Let’s suppose you plan to work until you are 60, and save enough to live on until you are 90. What are your housing options?

Let’s make up some numbers for earnings and spending. S’pose you expect to average $250K annual h’hold earnings over your working lifetime. Call that $150K after tax etc. Let’s suppose you want to spend $70K on average over the rest of your life, excluding mortgage payments.

Then your planned lifetime future non-mortgage spending comes to (90-30) x $70K = $4.2 million. Your planned lifetime future net earnings comes to (60-30) x $150K = $4.5 million. That leaves $300K for lifetime house purchases and any other unexpected little things that come up. If you have to plan on spending more than 50% of that residual number for a home, whatever it is for you, then you probably are relying on getting back a lot of it, so it has become an investment for you.

My guess is that at current So Ca prices, almost every first-time buyer is, by this measure, primarily a (hopeful) investor more than someone looking for shelter. Rentals already provide for the shelter need.

I hinted at all this, and more, in my other posts, but I hope this explains it better. If I had to guess, you fall into the group of people I described in my other post who have huge gains from prior purchases, so buying at today’s prices for you feels like paying with Monopoly money. Why bother waiting to save that last $100K in purchase price when you’re sitting on cumulative lifetime gains of many times that?

It’s just not the same for people who don’t have those massive gains, and have much poorer prospects for repeating your success. Or do you subscribe to the theory that home prices can, after blips here and there, exceed wage growth forever, as they have recently?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Raybyrnes, I wasn’t clear in explaining why most first-time buyers now have to consider their home as a major investment as well as a home, and need to time the purchase. Let me give it another shot.

Let’s say you are 30, and are settling into your career, planning to save, settle down, etc. You feel the need to start planning for the rest of your life. Let’s suppose you plan to work until you are 60, and save enough to live on until you are 90. What are your housing options?

Let’s make up some numbers for earnings and spending. S’pose you expect to average $250K annual h’hold earnings over your working lifetime. Call that $150K after tax etc. Let’s suppose you want to spend $70K on average over the rest of your life, excluding mortgage payments.

Then your planned lifetime future non-mortgage spending comes to (90-30) x $70K = $4.2 million. Your planned lifetime future net earnings comes to (60-30) x $150K = $4.5 million. That leaves $300K for lifetime house purchases and any other unexpected little things that come up. If you have to plan on spending more than 50% of that residual number for a home, whatever it is for you, then you probably are relying on getting back a lot of it, so it has become an investment for you.

My guess is that at current So Ca prices, almost every first-time buyer is, by this measure, primarily a (hopeful) investor more than someone looking for shelter. Rentals already provide for the shelter need.

I hinted at all this, and more, in my other posts, but I hope this explains it better. If I had to guess, you fall into the group of people I described in my other post who have huge gains from prior purchases, so buying at today’s prices for you feels like paying with Monopoly money. Why bother waiting to save that last $100K in purchase price when you’re sitting on cumulative lifetime gains of many times that?

It’s just not the same for people who don’t have those massive gains, and have much poorer prospects for repeating your success. Or do you subscribe to the theory that home prices can, after blips here and there, exceed wage growth forever, as they have recently?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Raybyrnes, I wasn’t clear in explaining why most first-time buyers now have to consider their home as a major investment as well as a home, and need to time the purchase. Let me give it another shot.

Let’s say you are 30, and are settling into your career, planning to save, settle down, etc. You feel the need to start planning for the rest of your life. Let’s suppose you plan to work until you are 60, and save enough to live on until you are 90. What are your housing options?

Let’s make up some numbers for earnings and spending. S’pose you expect to average $250K annual h’hold earnings over your working lifetime. Call that $150K after tax etc. Let’s suppose you want to spend $70K on average over the rest of your life, excluding mortgage payments.

Then your planned lifetime future non-mortgage spending comes to (90-30) x $70K = $4.2 million. Your planned lifetime future net earnings comes to (60-30) x $150K = $4.5 million. That leaves $300K for lifetime house purchases and any other unexpected little things that come up. If you have to plan on spending more than 50% of that residual number for a home, whatever it is for you, then you probably are relying on getting back a lot of it, so it has become an investment for you.

My guess is that at current So Ca prices, almost every first-time buyer is, by this measure, primarily a (hopeful) investor more than someone looking for shelter. Rentals already provide for the shelter need.

I hinted at all this, and more, in my other posts, but I hope this explains it better. If I had to guess, you fall into the group of people I described in my other post who have huge gains from prior purchases, so buying at today’s prices for you feels like paying with Monopoly money. Why bother waiting to save that last $100K in purchase price when you’re sitting on cumulative lifetime gains of many times that?

It’s just not the same for people who don’t have those massive gains, and have much poorer prospects for repeating your success. Or do you subscribe to the theory that home prices can, after blips here and there, exceed wage growth forever, as they have recently?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Raybyrnes, I wasn’t clear in explaining why most first-time buyers now have to consider their home as a major investment as well as a home, and need to time the purchase. Let me give it another shot.

Let’s say you are 30, and are settling into your career, planning to save, settle down, etc. You feel the need to start planning for the rest of your life. Let’s suppose you plan to work until you are 60, and save enough to live on until you are 90. What are your housing options?

Let’s make up some numbers for earnings and spending. S’pose you expect to average $250K annual h’hold earnings over your working lifetime. Call that $150K after tax etc. Let’s suppose you want to spend $70K on average over the rest of your life, excluding mortgage payments.

Then your planned lifetime future non-mortgage spending comes to (90-30) x $70K = $4.2 million. Your planned lifetime future net earnings comes to (60-30) x $150K = $4.5 million. That leaves $300K for lifetime house purchases and any other unexpected little things that come up. If you have to plan on spending more than 50% of that residual number for a home, whatever it is for you, then you probably are relying on getting back a lot of it, so it has become an investment for you.

My guess is that at current So Ca prices, almost every first-time buyer is, by this measure, primarily a (hopeful) investor more than someone looking for shelter. Rentals already provide for the shelter need.

I hinted at all this, and more, in my other posts, but I hope this explains it better. If I had to guess, you fall into the group of people I described in my other post who have huge gains from prior purchases, so buying at today’s prices for you feels like paying with Monopoly money. Why bother waiting to save that last $100K in purchase price when you’re sitting on cumulative lifetime gains of many times that?

It’s just not the same for people who don’t have those massive gains, and have much poorer prospects for repeating your success. Or do you subscribe to the theory that home prices can, after blips here and there, exceed wage growth forever, as they have recently?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Raybyrnes, I wasn’t clear in explaining why most first-time buyers now have to consider their home as a major investment as well as a home, and need to time the purchase. Let me give it another shot.

Let’s say you are 30, and are settling into your career, planning to save, settle down, etc. You feel the need to start planning for the rest of your life. Let’s suppose you plan to work until you are 60, and save enough to live on until you are 90. What are your housing options?

Let’s make up some numbers for earnings and spending. S’pose you expect to average $250K annual h’hold earnings over your working lifetime. Call that $150K after tax etc. Let’s suppose you want to spend $70K on average over the rest of your life, excluding mortgage payments.

Then your planned lifetime future non-mortgage spending comes to (90-30) x $70K = $4.2 million. Your planned lifetime future net earnings comes to (60-30) x $150K = $4.5 million. That leaves $300K for lifetime house purchases and any other unexpected little things that come up. If you have to plan on spending more than 50% of that residual number for a home, whatever it is for you, then you probably are relying on getting back a lot of it, so it has become an investment for you.

My guess is that at current So Ca prices, almost every first-time buyer is, by this measure, primarily a (hopeful) investor more than someone looking for shelter. Rentals already provide for the shelter need.

I hinted at all this, and more, in my other posts, but I hope this explains it better. If I had to guess, you fall into the group of people I described in my other post who have huge gains from prior purchases, so buying at today’s prices for you feels like paying with Monopoly money. Why bother waiting to save that last $100K in purchase price when you’re sitting on cumulative lifetime gains of many times that?

It’s just not the same for people who don’t have those massive gains, and have much poorer prospects for repeating your success. Or do you subscribe to the theory that home prices can, after blips here and there, exceed wage growth forever, as they have recently?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

It’ll have a little impact, like a little grease on the axle. For instance, people can now easily search online for all the homes of a certain type in a certain area, in a price range. They can see the number and quality of choices change. But not everyone does this, and people used to learn from friends, agents and MSM, so it’s an evolutionary change, not revolutionary.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

It’ll have a little impact, like a little grease on the axle. For instance, people can now easily search online for all the homes of a certain type in a certain area, in a price range. They can see the number and quality of choices change. But not everyone does this, and people used to learn from friends, agents and MSM, so it’s an evolutionary change, not revolutionary.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

It’ll have a little impact, like a little grease on the axle. For instance, people can now easily search online for all the homes of a certain type in a certain area, in a price range. They can see the number and quality of choices change. But not everyone does this, and people used to learn from friends, agents and MSM, so it’s an evolutionary change, not revolutionary.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

It’ll have a little impact, like a little grease on the axle. For instance, people can now easily search online for all the homes of a certain type in a certain area, in a price range. They can see the number and quality of choices change. But not everyone does this, and people used to learn from friends, agents and MSM, so it’s an evolutionary change, not revolutionary.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

It’ll have a little impact, like a little grease on the axle. For instance, people can now easily search online for all the homes of a certain type in a certain area, in a price range. They can see the number and quality of choices change. But not everyone does this, and people used to learn from friends, agents and MSM, so it’s an evolutionary change, not revolutionary.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

RO was an interesting species. Successful sales people are distinguished by their ability to push people into doing what they wouldn’t do naturally. And RO’s taunting of anyone who is cautious about buying, trying to get them to declare that they really did want to buy now, in order to win his approval, reeked of the salesman’s instinctive “closing the deal” moves.

I can’t recall RO contributing much apart from this kind of salesman move, which on Piggington is just a provocation.

I’d like to see a more analytical bullish contributor here. It does get tiresome when any “on the other hand” comment gets ripped apart by an emotional “are you in the pack or not” response. We can’t sharpen our vision of the present or future if we don’t have a calm, intelligent, two-sided dialog.

Patient renter in OC

[Author]

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