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patientrenter
Participant[quote=4plexowner]stocks are for suckers and I’m not a sucker …[/quote]
If you are right about CC debt, then you are turning down an opportunity to personally benefit – maybe by enough to transform your life – from your economic insights. Is your conviction about being right a little weaker than you’re expressing here?
Participant[quote=4plexowner]stocks are for suckers and I’m not a sucker …[/quote]
If you are right about CC debt, then you are turning down an opportunity to personally benefit – maybe by enough to transform your life – from your economic insights. Is your conviction about being right a little weaker than you’re expressing here?
Participant[quote=4plexowner]stocks are for suckers and I’m not a sucker …[/quote]
If you are right about CC debt, then you are turning down an opportunity to personally benefit – maybe by enough to transform your life – from your economic insights. Is your conviction about being right a little weaker than you’re expressing here?
Participant[quote=peterb]The senior currency usually is the strongest in times of global stress. For a host of reasons. I would not look for the US$ to be weak in the future. All currencies are now fiat. The US$ should rise in relative strength to all other fiats in the next leg down. It’s an ugly contest. Gold may test its Oct lows, but then return to its high soon thereafter.[/quote]
peterb, all fiat currencies are the toys of the political system. That means they reflect the wishes of the majority of voters, as mediated through the professional ruling class – politicians, senior govt bureaucrats, key academics etc.
Of course, all political systems might have equal tendencies to inflate, but I think it is far more likely that some countries will be more susceptible to that temptation than others.
What are the factors that tend to differentiate countries’ resistance to inflation? Here are 3:
1. Is the country a net debtor or creditor? If it is owed more than it owes, what is the net value as a proportion of national income? Is the debt denominated in its own currency?
A country that, in the aggregate, gains a lot from devaluing its own currency will have one more incentive to inflate.
2. How large is the govt debt as a proportion of national income?
The political class doesn’t just implement the wishes of the majority of voters. There is a bias in favor of the interests of the govt as a separate entity. If the govt is heavily indebted to the country’s savers, the political class will tend to want to devalue that debt – by inflating, leading eventually to currency devaluation.
3. What is the debt culture of the country? Do people have easy come, easy go attitudes to debt? Do people respect their obligations to the old (who tend to be net holders of others’ debt)?
Countries that are tempted by notions like debt jubilees, or show weak support for the elderly, or easy bankruptcies, etc, tend to have political systems that favor inflation, because it transfers money from (generally older) savers to (generally younger) spenders.
I would say that the US is close to one end of the spectrum here, and a country like Japan is at the other end. So, over the long run, I would expect the US $ to devalue versus the Yen. This is exactly what has happened over the last 30 years, so it should come as no shock to anyone if it happens over the next 30 years. (Sorry if my time frames are too long for that quick buck.)
Participant[quote=peterb]The senior currency usually is the strongest in times of global stress. For a host of reasons. I would not look for the US$ to be weak in the future. All currencies are now fiat. The US$ should rise in relative strength to all other fiats in the next leg down. It’s an ugly contest. Gold may test its Oct lows, but then return to its high soon thereafter.[/quote]
peterb, all fiat currencies are the toys of the political system. That means they reflect the wishes of the majority of voters, as mediated through the professional ruling class – politicians, senior govt bureaucrats, key academics etc.
Of course, all political systems might have equal tendencies to inflate, but I think it is far more likely that some countries will be more susceptible to that temptation than others.
What are the factors that tend to differentiate countries’ resistance to inflation? Here are 3:
1. Is the country a net debtor or creditor? If it is owed more than it owes, what is the net value as a proportion of national income? Is the debt denominated in its own currency?
A country that, in the aggregate, gains a lot from devaluing its own currency will have one more incentive to inflate.
2. How large is the govt debt as a proportion of national income?
The political class doesn’t just implement the wishes of the majority of voters. There is a bias in favor of the interests of the govt as a separate entity. If the govt is heavily indebted to the country’s savers, the political class will tend to want to devalue that debt – by inflating, leading eventually to currency devaluation.
3. What is the debt culture of the country? Do people have easy come, easy go attitudes to debt? Do people respect their obligations to the old (who tend to be net holders of others’ debt)?
Countries that are tempted by notions like debt jubilees, or show weak support for the elderly, or easy bankruptcies, etc, tend to have political systems that favor inflation, because it transfers money from (generally older) savers to (generally younger) spenders.
I would say that the US is close to one end of the spectrum here, and a country like Japan is at the other end. So, over the long run, I would expect the US $ to devalue versus the Yen. This is exactly what has happened over the last 30 years, so it should come as no shock to anyone if it happens over the next 30 years. (Sorry if my time frames are too long for that quick buck.)
Participant[quote=peterb]The senior currency usually is the strongest in times of global stress. For a host of reasons. I would not look for the US$ to be weak in the future. All currencies are now fiat. The US$ should rise in relative strength to all other fiats in the next leg down. It’s an ugly contest. Gold may test its Oct lows, but then return to its high soon thereafter.[/quote]
peterb, all fiat currencies are the toys of the political system. That means they reflect the wishes of the majority of voters, as mediated through the professional ruling class – politicians, senior govt bureaucrats, key academics etc.
Of course, all political systems might have equal tendencies to inflate, but I think it is far more likely that some countries will be more susceptible to that temptation than others.
What are the factors that tend to differentiate countries’ resistance to inflation? Here are 3:
1. Is the country a net debtor or creditor? If it is owed more than it owes, what is the net value as a proportion of national income? Is the debt denominated in its own currency?
A country that, in the aggregate, gains a lot from devaluing its own currency will have one more incentive to inflate.
2. How large is the govt debt as a proportion of national income?
The political class doesn’t just implement the wishes of the majority of voters. There is a bias in favor of the interests of the govt as a separate entity. If the govt is heavily indebted to the country’s savers, the political class will tend to want to devalue that debt – by inflating, leading eventually to currency devaluation.
3. What is the debt culture of the country? Do people have easy come, easy go attitudes to debt? Do people respect their obligations to the old (who tend to be net holders of others’ debt)?
Countries that are tempted by notions like debt jubilees, or show weak support for the elderly, or easy bankruptcies, etc, tend to have political systems that favor inflation, because it transfers money from (generally older) savers to (generally younger) spenders.
I would say that the US is close to one end of the spectrum here, and a country like Japan is at the other end. So, over the long run, I would expect the US $ to devalue versus the Yen. This is exactly what has happened over the last 30 years, so it should come as no shock to anyone if it happens over the next 30 years. (Sorry if my time frames are too long for that quick buck.)
Participant[quote=peterb]The senior currency usually is the strongest in times of global stress. For a host of reasons. I would not look for the US$ to be weak in the future. All currencies are now fiat. The US$ should rise in relative strength to all other fiats in the next leg down. It’s an ugly contest. Gold may test its Oct lows, but then return to its high soon thereafter.[/quote]
peterb, all fiat currencies are the toys of the political system. That means they reflect the wishes of the majority of voters, as mediated through the professional ruling class – politicians, senior govt bureaucrats, key academics etc.
Of course, all political systems might have equal tendencies to inflate, but I think it is far more likely that some countries will be more susceptible to that temptation than others.
What are the factors that tend to differentiate countries’ resistance to inflation? Here are 3:
1. Is the country a net debtor or creditor? If it is owed more than it owes, what is the net value as a proportion of national income? Is the debt denominated in its own currency?
A country that, in the aggregate, gains a lot from devaluing its own currency will have one more incentive to inflate.
2. How large is the govt debt as a proportion of national income?
The political class doesn’t just implement the wishes of the majority of voters. There is a bias in favor of the interests of the govt as a separate entity. If the govt is heavily indebted to the country’s savers, the political class will tend to want to devalue that debt – by inflating, leading eventually to currency devaluation.
3. What is the debt culture of the country? Do people have easy come, easy go attitudes to debt? Do people respect their obligations to the old (who tend to be net holders of others’ debt)?
Countries that are tempted by notions like debt jubilees, or show weak support for the elderly, or easy bankruptcies, etc, tend to have political systems that favor inflation, because it transfers money from (generally older) savers to (generally younger) spenders.
I would say that the US is close to one end of the spectrum here, and a country like Japan is at the other end. So, over the long run, I would expect the US $ to devalue versus the Yen. This is exactly what has happened over the last 30 years, so it should come as no shock to anyone if it happens over the next 30 years. (Sorry if my time frames are too long for that quick buck.)
Participant[quote=peterb]The senior currency usually is the strongest in times of global stress. For a host of reasons. I would not look for the US$ to be weak in the future. All currencies are now fiat. The US$ should rise in relative strength to all other fiats in the next leg down. It’s an ugly contest. Gold may test its Oct lows, but then return to its high soon thereafter.[/quote]
peterb, all fiat currencies are the toys of the political system. That means they reflect the wishes of the majority of voters, as mediated through the professional ruling class – politicians, senior govt bureaucrats, key academics etc.
Of course, all political systems might have equal tendencies to inflate, but I think it is far more likely that some countries will be more susceptible to that temptation than others.
What are the factors that tend to differentiate countries’ resistance to inflation? Here are 3:
1. Is the country a net debtor or creditor? If it is owed more than it owes, what is the net value as a proportion of national income? Is the debt denominated in its own currency?
A country that, in the aggregate, gains a lot from devaluing its own currency will have one more incentive to inflate.
2. How large is the govt debt as a proportion of national income?
The political class doesn’t just implement the wishes of the majority of voters. There is a bias in favor of the interests of the govt as a separate entity. If the govt is heavily indebted to the country’s savers, the political class will tend to want to devalue that debt – by inflating, leading eventually to currency devaluation.
3. What is the debt culture of the country? Do people have easy come, easy go attitudes to debt? Do people respect their obligations to the old (who tend to be net holders of others’ debt)?
Countries that are tempted by notions like debt jubilees, or show weak support for the elderly, or easy bankruptcies, etc, tend to have political systems that favor inflation, because it transfers money from (generally older) savers to (generally younger) spenders.
I would say that the US is close to one end of the spectrum here, and a country like Japan is at the other end. So, over the long run, I would expect the US $ to devalue versus the Yen. This is exactly what has happened over the last 30 years, so it should come as no shock to anyone if it happens over the next 30 years. (Sorry if my time frames are too long for that quick buck.)
Participant4plex, I am sure there are public companies that hold CC debt. If that turns out to be extraordinarily profitable, in spite of the bad CC debt that’s coming, then you could become rich by simply buying their stocks.
Any experts want to point to public companies that have a much higher than average exposure to CC debt so 4plex can test his theory and get rich?
If you do get rich by following through on this, 4plex, you owe us a beer!
Participant4plex, I am sure there are public companies that hold CC debt. If that turns out to be extraordinarily profitable, in spite of the bad CC debt that’s coming, then you could become rich by simply buying their stocks.
Any experts want to point to public companies that have a much higher than average exposure to CC debt so 4plex can test his theory and get rich?
If you do get rich by following through on this, 4plex, you owe us a beer!
Participant4plex, I am sure there are public companies that hold CC debt. If that turns out to be extraordinarily profitable, in spite of the bad CC debt that’s coming, then you could become rich by simply buying their stocks.
Any experts want to point to public companies that have a much higher than average exposure to CC debt so 4plex can test his theory and get rich?
If you do get rich by following through on this, 4plex, you owe us a beer!
Participant4plex, I am sure there are public companies that hold CC debt. If that turns out to be extraordinarily profitable, in spite of the bad CC debt that’s coming, then you could become rich by simply buying their stocks.
Any experts want to point to public companies that have a much higher than average exposure to CC debt so 4plex can test his theory and get rich?
If you do get rich by following through on this, 4plex, you owe us a beer!
Participant4plex, I am sure there are public companies that hold CC debt. If that turns out to be extraordinarily profitable, in spite of the bad CC debt that’s coming, then you could become rich by simply buying their stocks.
Any experts want to point to public companies that have a much higher than average exposure to CC debt so 4plex can test his theory and get rich?
If you do get rich by following through on this, 4plex, you owe us a beer!
Participant[quote=peterb]Just remember, the term “buying” a house has been twisted. Almost no one buys a house, they take out a huge debt to get the title. That aint buying. You pay cash and own it outright, that’s buying. The rest is a strange fantasy people have. So if the payment’s lower, great, but that’s about sustaining debt. Not owning.[/quote]
I dunno, peter. If you go with the standard 3% down, and maybe throw in first-time buyer credits and a little kickback from the agent or broker or one of the other parties getting paid in the deal, you effectively get a very cheap option to (really) buy) at a fixed price. And you can do what you want with the property while you’re considering whether to actually buy. If the prices come down, you go get a modification. If they go up, you can cash in. You pay for the option in small installments. It’s pretty attractive. Hey, if I didn’t know better, I’d say it’s the greatest scam we’ve ever had! Better than mere owning, where you can gain or lose.
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