[Ozzie]

If LS08 had a historical perspective and is interested in buying on the Westside of LA then he should be thinking about 2011 or 2012 if this decline is anything like past declines (and I doubt it will be). LA has barely budged and is probably 24 months behind San Diego which is down about 8%-12% from the peak depending on where you are at.

I have no idea how he defines a “good buy” but prices would need to drop 50% or more and rents would need to rise 20% or more in most coastal areas if he simply uses cash flow as a basis for that decision. That’s not happening in the next 36 months much less by summer ’08.

[Ozzie]

If LS08 had a historical perspective and is interested in buying on the Westside of LA then he should be thinking about 2011 or 2012 if this decline is anything like past declines (and I doubt it will be). LA has barely budged and is probably 24 months behind San Diego which is down about 8%-12% from the peak depending on where you are at.

I have no idea how he defines a “good buy” but prices would need to drop 50% or more and rents would need to rise 20% or more in most coastal areas if he simply uses cash flow as a basis for that decision. That’s not happening in the next 36 months much less by summer ’08.

[Ozzie]

Just curious, lostkitty

You said you moved 5+ years ago and had pleny of savings and a well paying job in North County coastal. Why didn’t you buy back then? $500k would have gotten you a house that is probably now worth $900k and if you locked or re-fi’d in the low 5’s your payment on a $450k mortgage would be less than $2500/month. Rent for that same house today would far exceed the $2500.

[Ozzie]

Just curious, lostkitty

You said you moved 5+ years ago and had pleny of savings and a well paying job in North County coastal. Why didn’t you buy back then? $500k would have gotten you a house that is probably now worth $900k and if you locked or re-fi’d in the low 5’s your payment on a $450k mortgage would be less than $2500/month. Rent for that same house today would far exceed the $2500.

[Ozzie]

Don’t mean to be an A-hole, but it’s $20k.

Put it in an index fund and STFU.

Give me a break.

[Ozzie]

Don’t mean to be an A-hole, but it’s $20k.

Put it in an index fund and STFU.

Give me a break.

[Ozzie]

sdrealtor, you come off as such a know-it-all.

If you knew all the details then why didn’t you post that the owner didn’t take the loss and his company did? It was sold to Cendant’s relo business which buys homes below market value and then remarkets them. The owner didn’t lose a dime. And what’s not relevant with what the current value is? Those people that bought got a good deal and could sell for another 5-10% right now in less than a year. They put down a big downpayment and will probably be there for 10 years adding more stability to the neighborhood. Does that mean the entire market is up 10%? Of course not, but when you pick and choose these transactions and don’t provide details you are being shady at best.

You seem to post in every single discussion here. If you spent more time listing and selling homes rather than sitting on your butt posting here, you would be able to live in LaJolla or RSF. And of course you always have to get the last word in, but I won’t be around to view your next “gem”. I’ll mark this discussion as case closed. Nothing more to discuss here.

Adios.

[Ozzie]

The sale price for that house reflects a few circumstances including he took a job elsewhere and a relocation bailed him out so he probably didn’t take a loss. It also fell out of escrow at least once at a higher price when the buyers wife flat out refused to move from the Bay Area after they had been in escrow 20 days. The seller kept the deposit. I would estimate you could have gotten $1.25 for that house this spring.

Regardless it wasn’t too bright to buy at that price unless you intended on staying a long time OR maybe the other job offer was so great that it didn’t matter. Everyone has different motivations.

[Ozzie]

Well, if it takes 18 months as the article states then we should be down that 40% by now because the height of the market was in the summer of 2004. We’re about 30+ months past the peak.

[Ozzie]

You are right that the CEO’s live in RSF. The VP’s and Sr. VP’s (and there are a bunch of them compared to one CEO) live nearby and they have kids who want the best schools.

Good news for Bressi. There’s a great new private school coming. Only costs $20k per child per year.

[Ozzie]

SDR and SD R

As for condos, I don’t follow them at all so I have no idea what they are doing and frankly I don’t care.

As for those two comps I know them much better than you think since I’m a neighbor. The one that just sold could have easily gotten over $1.1 if they would have listed it at that price in the beginning rather than $1,250,000 or whatever they listed it for. The one on Serbal is far nicer IMO both inside and out so maybe they could have also gotten over $1.1mm but they didn’t because buyer sentiment was so bad last summer.

Also the cul de sac location yeilding a premium is very misleading as the one on Camino Serbal is directly across the street from the Cul De Sac so their kids can and do play on that Cul De Sac, and any noise or traffic concerns are also present on Sitio Mirto and Sitio Olmo since those are tiny Cul De Sacs that only go 3 houses deep so they are literally 30 yards from Camino Serbal.

The peak for LCV was summer 2004 and prices have been stagnant to down 10% since then with a huge drop off in demand peaking last summer. LC Oaks had a lot to do with that. That excess supply where the builders are actually mandated to sell or reduce prices has largely vanished and I’m seeing the market firming.

One reason you will see prices here higher in the coming years is all the new commercial development being done near Bressi in the Carlsbad/Vista business corridor. There’s a huge supply of new buildngs going up and they will lower their prices until they fill them up. The folks with families will want to be in a good school district with an easy commute. I know several large businesses buildng their own buildings who will vacating SD and Sorrento Valley for Carlsbad because of price and also the proximity to Carlsbad airport where they have their private jets. Will CEO’s move their entire companies because they want a 5 minute commute to their jets? Yes, they will.

[Ozzie]

Quick example:

Exact same model in La Costa Valley (3590 sq feet) sold for $1,028,000 last summer and just closed for $1,089,500 about a month ago. No lender fraud, etc. And the lower priced home had nicer upgrades and a much bigger back yard.

Those are facts. Buyers are much more optimistic right now despite all the dooom and gloom of the bloggers. Maybe the stock market rally has something to do with it.

[Ozzie]

Well, that may be but I’ve seen like for like sell 5-10% higher as well. I just closed recently and sold it outside the MLS for more than I could have gotten last summer when it was listed for 3 months with no offers at a lower price. Buyers are more optimistic at this point compared to last summer.

[Ozzie]

These threads are all too common here. There was one about 2-3 weeks ago concerning a La Costa property and it had the same type of title where the home was selling pre-2004 prices or whatever. I did a tax search and the home hadn’t even sold in 2004. The owner was going to make a great profit for a 10 or 15 year holding period. The thread quickly ended when it was apparent that it was just a lie to begin with.

[Ozzie]

I think a small band aid will take care of this “bloodbath”

What amazes me is the apparent glee that some posters derive from trying to find properties where folks have taken a loss. I wonder if they look for stocks that have taken a dive and then go to their message boards to boast how stupid anyone who bought that stock is? I doubt it, but what’s the difference? I guess a home is more personal than buying a stock and those who feel priced out can’t buy a piece of a house whereas they can buy $500 of MSFT and consider themselves partners with Bill Gates.

[Author]

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