[ocrenter]

poway, don’t take it the wrong way, but just because I didn’t respond doesn’t mean I didn’t meet up with him. That law firm is currently assisting me with a small claims issue. as for the eviction issue, he’s not going to be able to help me until the actual NOD gets filed. What was briefly stated was the offer to fight the eviction if the bank actually takes over the property. what was NOT said was an eviction filing of the said address may damage my credit report significantly. right now the owner (who is in default but has not had the NOD officially filed) is trying to obtain refinancing for the property. all the power to him and I hope he is successful in delaying the inevitable, at least for a year.

[ocrenter]

good questions. I would keep renting and save as much money as humanly possible. Sure, you are taking a big hit tax-wise. We are too, so you are not alone out there. You may be able to pick up quite a bit of rental properties in IE at half off in 3-5 years, making them income generators, not monthly losses.

As for OC, we weren’t sure how long we had to wait. And given the tax issues, we couldn’t afford to keep waiting for OC to drop to the bottom. Another issue with OC is the prices are so high, even a 20-30% fall would still be pricey. So we moved to a place where we felt the prices are actually falling right now in real time so the wait wouldn’t be so long and endless.

[ocrenter]

there’s a couple of homes in this “exclusive gated community” currently in pre-foreclosure. found info on one of them. this is probably not the home in question. but it does offer some insight into the type of home and pricing.

1xx8 Via Vera Cruz is in default on a $670,000 loan. Purchase price in 1/2003 was only $430,000. sqft doesn’t quite fit as it only has 3,346 sqft. NOD filed 6/8/06, so still has 2 months until NOTS hits home.

[ocrenter]

so I guess GRM of 23 isn’t exactly very good for my landlord…

[ocrenter]

you think SD is bad. docs are leaving OC in droves!

[ocrenter]

and once you start to have flattening or negative y-o-y appreciation, you weed out the wannabe investors. so you are left with true buyers and savvy investors. and true buyers would not touch these, so the price either have to drop or it just drop off the listing.

[ocrenter]

I keep forgetting how small this place actually is. I read a bit more of the flipper’s post in the investor forum. It looks like they were able to get the laminate flooring and carpet done for $3,000. But it also looks like they had a huge mold and asbestos problem (with the flipper inhaling some asbestos unknowningly during the initial heady days of ‘let’s try to do it ourselves’.)

let’s just give this flipper the benefit of doubt and go with the $50,000 estimate. which would translate to roughly $20,000 after tax, if they manage to sell for $565,000.

[ocrenter]

well, they bought for $465,000, so they are down to $100,000 minus all expenses.

on the forum, lots and lots of questions about the price of the renovation. silence from the flipper. quite frankly, sounds like she’s still trying to figure it out. quite a number pointed out they wouldn’t have done so much (ie. lots of unneccessary improvemts that will prove costly.)

here’s the description of the improvements: “New roof, windows, bathrooms, kitchen, flooring, paint, doors, plumbing, carpet, appliances, recessed lighting, fixtures, electrical and more.” These guys also knocked down walls, re-did openings, delt with tree roots in the pumbling, and brand new fencing all around.

I’m guessing $70,000 for the renovation. that would only be a $30,000 profit at the current price. if the agent’s commission is 4%, that’s about $8000 in profit. less uncle sam and the governator’s taxation, we’re looking at $5000.

or did I price the renovation too high?

[ocrenter]

condo’s always fall first because they are less desireable. builders will always cut prices first because they can’t afford standing inventories of spec homes AND they have no emotional attachment to these homes.

The sellers of the traditional SFR in general have lived and raised their families there. There is a lot of pride in ownership and competition with neighbors. “If our home went for less than the Jones’, that must mean our home wasn’t kept as nicely, or my latest home improvement project wasn’t quiet as good as Bob’s.”

Therefore, condo’s and new homes lead the way in the fall, and the SFR prices are dragged down with the seller kicking and screaming.

[ocrenter]

huh? there’s advertisement on zillow? haha

[ocrenter]

the flipper got the place in 2/2006 for $465,000. Now they are trying to flip it for $598,000, a $133,000 profit.

They certainly did A LOT. The before pics showed a absolute disaster zone. I really wonder about the renovation cost. Which the flipper did not post on the forum.

This one is worth tracking.

[ocrenter]

Any realtor worth a grain of salt knows DOM is a joke not just Jim. The main reason DOM stats are out there is because people ask for them. Calculating them accurately is nearly impossible.

so why is it that when newspapers quote realtors about the DOM, none of them ever qualify it with: “btw, the DOM is a joke because of freq re-list” or “accurate DOM is nearly impossible to obtain.” But instead, it is fed to the newspapers as “a sign of stability.”

[ocrenter]

of the 4 pages of posts on this thread, docteur’s post was the best and most informative.

My personal belief is the inventory will continue to climb until November, and fall dramatically as the “testing the water” crowd get ready for uninterrupted holiday season.

if you look at last winter, listings tapered off from 16,400 to 13,900, a 15% drop off. This season there may be more of this drop off due to increase in the “testing the water” crowd.

what I disagree with is what happens when this crowd says enough is enough and we are pulling from the market for good. I believe they will be replaced by ARM reset “need to sell” folks. There’s a lot of those 3/1 ARM folks that purchased in 2003 and 2004 and all that is coming due this year and next. And soon the 5/1 ARM folks will have to start selling. The big one are folks that purchased in 2004 at the very top of the market, majority using 0 down 2-5 years ARM.

What I think may happen is we’ll see the usual dip in inventory this winter, then we are going to see another brake in record next year. here’s something that may provide some answer: take the total number of sales in 2004 x % of transactions involving 3/1 ARM x 50% (assuming half already sold, will stick it out with the much higher payment or refi to a fixed), and add this number to the lowest inventory number this winter, and you’ll get the new high in 2007.

[ocrenter]

what is being manipulated is the Days on Market statistics. Now if Realtors DO NOT use the DOM as an assessment of market health, then this would be a non-issue. However, the great majority of them do. You see it in almost every newspaper article: “DOM remains stable,” “there’s only a slight increase in DOM from 42 to 45 days.” it isn’t as if these Realtors quoting these numbers don’t know how common the practice of relisting is.

one example of a realtor that toss out the DOM as a market indicator is Jim the Realtor from Carlsbad.

But that’s only one realtor out of many! So as long as the majority of the realtors out there still use DOM as an indicator that everything is ok, any re-listing is market manipulation.

[ocrenter]

powayseller,

haha… you know the answer to the DOM question. it’s that special wand known as re-listing that Realtors love so much.

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