[ocrenter]

this is not JP’s house, but I think it illustrates my point.

let’s take a recently closed UTC home 4318 Cozzens, 2687 sqft, closed for $685k.

going back to 2000, there’s couple of homes a block away:

4224 Karensue Ave, 2100 sqft sold for $432,000

5986 Karensue Ln, 3000 sqft sold for $550,000

since the sqft of the subject home is smack in the middle of these two, let’s just average them out to a year 2000 price of 491k.

interest rate back in the days was 8%, at 3.5% down, monthly mortgage was $3470.

moving forward to 2011, at 4.25% and 3.5% down, monthly is $3200.

not saying the folks that purchased in 2000 can’t just refi to a lower rate now, but back in the days they committed to that purchase at that monthly carrying cost probably without realizing interest rate would get so low in the future.

just remember what the government is trying to do, suppress interest rate, bring down value of the dollar, in order to artificially keep prices “up.” so you do not see nominal drops. But the drops are here. via inflation adjustment and the fact that JP is able to find a 3% down 30 year fixed loan for 4.25%.

[ocrenter]

this is not JP’s house, but I think it illustrates my point.

let’s take a recently closed UTC home 4318 Cozzens, 2687 sqft, closed for $685k.

going back to 2000, there’s couple of homes a block away:

4224 Karensue Ave, 2100 sqft sold for $432,000

5986 Karensue Ln, 3000 sqft sold for $550,000

since the sqft of the subject home is smack in the middle of these two, let’s just average them out to a year 2000 price of 491k.

interest rate back in the days was 8%, at 3.5% down, monthly mortgage was $3470.

moving forward to 2011, at 4.25% and 3.5% down, monthly is $3200.

not saying the folks that purchased in 2000 can’t just refi to a lower rate now, but back in the days they committed to that purchase at that monthly carrying cost probably without realizing interest rate would get so low in the future.

just remember what the government is trying to do, suppress interest rate, bring down value of the dollar, in order to artificially keep prices “up.” so you do not see nominal drops. But the drops are here. via inflation adjustment and the fact that JP is able to find a 3% down 30 year fixed loan for 4.25%.

[ocrenter]

[img_assist|nid=14626|title=let jr play under the lines|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=399|height=300]

I’m just in shock that there are parents that actually put the playset where it is…

[ocrenter]

[img_assist|nid=14626|title=let jr play under the lines|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=399|height=300]

I’m just in shock that there are parents that actually put the playset where it is…

[ocrenter]

[img_assist|nid=14626|title=let jr play under the lines|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=399|height=300]

I’m just in shock that there are parents that actually put the playset where it is…

[ocrenter]

[img_assist|nid=14626|title=let jr play under the lines|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=399|height=300]

I’m just in shock that there are parents that actually put the playset where it is…

[ocrenter]

[img_assist|nid=14626|title=let jr play under the lines|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=399|height=300]

I’m just in shock that there are parents that actually put the playset where it is…

[ocrenter]

congrats JP, seriously when we bought I thought we were doing some knifecatching ourselves. turned out otherwise.

I think 35% off peak along the coast (I’m assuming that since it seemed to be your target before) is very good, and there is absolutely no need to beat yourself over it. At the most it slides another 10% over the next few years, when considering all the other factors, not really worth the wait.

4.25% interest rate is simply awesome. what you should do is take the house’s 2000 value and apply 8% interest on a 97% LTV and see what your carrying cost would be. I get the feeling you would be better off now.

agree with the LA strategy. good job!

[ocrenter]

congrats JP, seriously when we bought I thought we were doing some knifecatching ourselves. turned out otherwise.

I think 35% off peak along the coast (I’m assuming that since it seemed to be your target before) is very good, and there is absolutely no need to beat yourself over it. At the most it slides another 10% over the next few years, when considering all the other factors, not really worth the wait.

4.25% interest rate is simply awesome. what you should do is take the house’s 2000 value and apply 8% interest on a 97% LTV and see what your carrying cost would be. I get the feeling you would be better off now.

agree with the LA strategy. good job!

[ocrenter]

congrats JP, seriously when we bought I thought we were doing some knifecatching ourselves. turned out otherwise.

I think 35% off peak along the coast (I’m assuming that since it seemed to be your target before) is very good, and there is absolutely no need to beat yourself over it. At the most it slides another 10% over the next few years, when considering all the other factors, not really worth the wait.

4.25% interest rate is simply awesome. what you should do is take the house’s 2000 value and apply 8% interest on a 97% LTV and see what your carrying cost would be. I get the feeling you would be better off now.

agree with the LA strategy. good job!

[ocrenter]

congrats JP, seriously when we bought I thought we were doing some knifecatching ourselves. turned out otherwise.

I think 35% off peak along the coast (I’m assuming that since it seemed to be your target before) is very good, and there is absolutely no need to beat yourself over it. At the most it slides another 10% over the next few years, when considering all the other factors, not really worth the wait.

4.25% interest rate is simply awesome. what you should do is take the house’s 2000 value and apply 8% interest on a 97% LTV and see what your carrying cost would be. I get the feeling you would be better off now.

agree with the LA strategy. good job!

[ocrenter]

congrats JP, seriously when we bought I thought we were doing some knifecatching ourselves. turned out otherwise.

I think 35% off peak along the coast (I’m assuming that since it seemed to be your target before) is very good, and there is absolutely no need to beat yourself over it. At the most it slides another 10% over the next few years, when considering all the other factors, not really worth the wait.

4.25% interest rate is simply awesome. what you should do is take the house’s 2000 value and apply 8% interest on a 97% LTV and see what your carrying cost would be. I get the feeling you would be better off now.

agree with the LA strategy. good job!

[ocrenter]

not that good…

7359 Rancho Catalina Trl
–it is amazing that this home is not only right next to high voltage power lines, but there’s actually a set of HVP lines right over a children’s playset on the side yard. a testimony to the bubble years where you could essentially build right underneath HVP lines and folks still came flocking.

14672 Rio Rancho
–same issue here, a little better as the HVP lines are just adjacent to the back yard, not actually overhead. a short sale as well.

17129 SAN ANTONIO ROSE CT
–foreclosure in the Crosby’s. price somewhat better, but I just can’t swallow the > $1000 HOA/MR.

7507 Garden
–foreclosure, with almost all base cabinets and appliances. still too pricey.

[ocrenter]

not that good…

7359 Rancho Catalina Trl
–it is amazing that this home is not only right next to high voltage power lines, but there’s actually a set of HVP lines right over a children’s playset on the side yard. a testimony to the bubble years where you could essentially build right underneath HVP lines and folks still came flocking.

14672 Rio Rancho
–same issue here, a little better as the HVP lines are just adjacent to the back yard, not actually overhead. a short sale as well.

17129 SAN ANTONIO ROSE CT
–foreclosure in the Crosby’s. price somewhat better, but I just can’t swallow the > $1000 HOA/MR.

7507 Garden
–foreclosure, with almost all base cabinets and appliances. still too pricey.

[ocrenter]

not that good…

7359 Rancho Catalina Trl
–it is amazing that this home is not only right next to high voltage power lines, but there’s actually a set of HVP lines right over a children’s playset on the side yard. a testimony to the bubble years where you could essentially build right underneath HVP lines and folks still came flocking.

14672 Rio Rancho
–same issue here, a little better as the HVP lines are just adjacent to the back yard, not actually overhead. a short sale as well.

17129 SAN ANTONIO ROSE CT
–foreclosure in the Crosby’s. price somewhat better, but I just can’t swallow the > $1000 HOA/MR.

7507 Garden
–foreclosure, with almost all base cabinets and appliances. still too pricey.

[Author]

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