[Myriad]

[quote=FlyerInHi]China was not lucky. They worked very hard when everyone said would fail. Not only are they successful, they are extreme successful in rail and developing new technologies (such as high altitude extreme conditions travel). They built the whole network in 10 years, faster than California’s HSR. That just shows how screwed up we are. [/quote]

Lucky in the sense that their development happened in the recent past decade. If it was a few decades ago, it probably would have been too expensive and they may have done something else. Another decade in the future, maybe there’s some other technology.

That’s for sure. You can’t do crap with CA’s environmental and local resident provisions. If only our land was owned by the state and we could plow anything in the way like SimCity/City Skylines. Maybe we’ll just have to wait for the next earthquake.

[Myriad]

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[Myriad]

[quote=FlyerInHi] I don’t think it’s any big deal. Do you think the FBI is not surveilling RT’s activities in USA?[/quote]

Oh, I’m sure they are, since the RT is essentially backed by the Russian government. But that’s not an equivalent story here.
It would be more like the CIA monitoring a Turkish dissident newspaper reporter in Canada, taking that info, and willingly provide it to the Turkish government to hunt down someone in Turkey’s government who was the source of a leak of someone stealing $4B from the Turkish people.

Have we done that before? Maybe in the Cold War. Heh, but I guess we’re going back into one so maybe the gloves come off the CIA again. Maybe they’ll bring back the proxy wars in Africa too.

[Myriad]

I’m all for rail when it makes sense. China is lucky in the sense that their timing was good for HSR. They had the capital, the right available technology and the population density to support such a system. However, for the large majority of Chinese, the rail is very expensive – it’s great for relatively wealthy city workers and foreigners.

The CA HSR between LA and SF is a colossal waste of money – if it is ever completed, it would be a huge financial drain on CA state resources. The only way it will be economically feasible is when a new technology system is fully developed (Hyperloop). Yes, most roads are funded via sales tax, and so could the HSR, but the ridership data behind it is overly optimistic. People are just not going to pay the prices on the rail, especially with a 3 or more people – It’ll be cheaper to drive.
CA is better off spending the money on regional rail and intermodal transport. Such as SF-Stockton/Sacramento/Fresno. LA-SD/Bakersfield/Palmdale/LV. Why? Because commuters will use these routes every day as opposed to the once in a while travelers between LA and SF (and competing with air travel for the same passengers.)

I’m more optimistic on South Florida. The distances are way shorter, the population density substantially higher (for relative distance), and it’s regional.

[Myriad]

Also this article from WSJ.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-china-flexes-its-political-muscle-to-expand-power-overseas-11546890449?mod=hp_lead_pos5

In order to get political leverage in Malaysia, China basically cut a deal to gloss over the stolen funds in 1MDB. $16B for the East Coast Rail Link for an estimated cost of $7.25B, to cover $4.78 billion of 1MDB debt.

Also this:
“At a meeting the next day, Sun Lijun, then head of China’s domestic-security force, confirmed that China’s government was surveilling the Journal (aka WSJ) in Hong Kong at Malaysia’s request, including “full scale residence/office/device tapping, computer/phone/web data retrieval, and full operational surveillance,” according to a Malaysian summary of that meeting.”

[Myriad]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
I agree on both counts. I think we should have glass high rises above the stores in Mission and Fashion Valley. With the trolley to UCSD and SDSU, it would be perfect for students, faculty and tech workers in the Golden Triangle.[/quote]

That’s the truth. High rises in places connected to mass transit. With enough units and density to actually make a difference in housing affordability.
Instead, you have the city council trying to force density in places that are not exactly near (1/4-1/2 mi) transit in suburban neighborhoods.
I had a city planning official tell me that the mayor/council is thinking about allowing development with 0 parking spaces. I mean this would be doable, if we had a mass transit system to make this happen. But it’s crazy in the suburban areas we have today – just lots of cars parked illegally on the street and more traffic in local areas.

[Myriad]

Technically it doesn’t sound like a loan. What you did was you essentially created an equity investment with a preferred return from operating cash flow (monthly/quarterly depending on the duration), and distribution on a capital event.
This structure is pretty typical for a multi-investor structure where a LLC is formed and a K-1 is issues each year.
Could you claim capital gains on the portion above the loan interest? That would depend on how you structured the initial investment and how that is viewed by the IRS.
Though I doubt you could run into a problem by paying the income tax rate. You could construe it as a deferred interest payable at the capital event.

[Myriad]

[quote=Escoguy]If the car lasts 15 years, fuel savings would be about 25% of the cost of the vehicle. We’re on our fourth EV (Model S/Model 3)
Total investment to do this for solar would be about $22K.
Depending on energy consumption patterns, payback is about 5 years.[/quote]

Hmm, so you spend (aka save) $4400/year on gas/electric & gasoline?
I’ve looked at solar and maybe my consumption is low – I’ve never been able to get the payoff under 10 years. But then my house is fairly cool in the summer – almost never turn on the A/C.

Certainly for operating costs, the EV is much less than gas. But the acquisition costs are much higher for a comparable vehicle and the used market is still somewhat limited.
My current commute car is a 13 year old Camry, paid off, and only have liability insurance (~$300/year). Maybe when the new EVs come out in a few years.

[Myriad]

[quote=The-Shoveler]”In a modern society that should not happen”

It was in L.A. 1994 January.[/quote]

What about the county-wide blackout in 2011. It was a 12 hour outage and it was somewhat like chaos here in SD.

[Myriad]

More like the Cold War where there are 2 standards. The play is for India with 1.5B people – it’s enough of a counterweight to China. If a dual system exists, then it’ll last for 50+ years.
But China is effectively blocked from implementing 5G in countries allied with the US.

[Myriad]

I think the danger here is that the world splits into two trading systems or at least for tech. Unless there’s some grand compromise, US companies will be pushed to move supply chains out of China and not purchase any Chinese tech and vice versa for China.
Then the race is on to get various countries into different blocks. Do you want to be a vassal state to China or part of the anti-China group.

[Myriad]

It’s hard to see how there’s going to be a deal in 90 days with all the geopolitical and technology issues.
Also, don’t travel to China if you’re an executive of a US multinational company with any prominence.

[Myriad]

China is following the China model, not Singapore. The goal is a to create a superpower that challenges the West.
It’s not just economic, it’s social, political, miltiary, etc.
What they are promoting is the China model of growth, but don’t worry about personal freedoms, minority groups, or global norms regarding trade, individual country rights, maritime rights, etc.
While at the moment this has been very successful for China for the last 3 decades, there is a paradigm shift on-going. We are clearly heading towards a Cold War. What could happen is that the Indo-Pacific splits into two spheres where open trade, freedom of navigation, and easy access are no longer allowed. Either you are in the Sino sphere or the Anti-Sino (Australia, US, Japan, S Korea, India?) sphere. Already companies are contingency planning for multiple production lines inside/outside of China.
Either way, unless you’re part of the wealthy or ruling class, there is going to a net negative to quality of life.

On a side note, this came out last week:
https://www.uscc.gov/Annual_Reports/2018-annual-report
Inside was this tidbit
“Congress direct the U.S. Department of Commerce and other relevant government agencies to prepare an unclassified public report, with a classified annex, examining and assessing the adequacy of U.S. export control policy for dual-use technology as it relates to U.S. treatment of Hong Kong and China as separate customs areas”
So all that needs to be done is to treat any Sino sphere country as part of the China custom area and severely limit what types of goods are allowed to be exported.

[Myriad]

[quote=gzz]It isn’t the money, it is the presumption of wasting every business owner’s time to collect a pittance.[/quote]

What a stupid rule, but I bet we have plenty of those in CA.
I guess my only hope at this point is to have a fiscal crisis where the interest on the national debt is out of control. Then maybe there will be a minute chance of a straight income tax without deductions and credits for businesses and individuals.

[Myriad]

Not really for investment property. Too expensive here compared to the rent/return/cap rate.
I’m looking a more diversified REITs or crowdfunded investment property in the rest of the US. I liked some of the investments on Realtyshares, but that site just closed down new investments.

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