[MadeInTaiwan]

Don’t know about gold, but I agree that oil long term will be high. However, I would caution against simply buying oil stock. The reason is that big Oil is in trouble. Their bookable reserves (reserves that they control) are not being replenished. The reason is more and more new fields are being controlled by states (like Russia, Velenzuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, former Soviet states in the ‘Stan area). Read up the blog by Josh Levin at oilandglory.com. If current trends holds (who knows, the low prices could break the Sovereign oil companies) Oil multinationals will either adapt to oil service companies or die.

By the way, there are some sign that before inflation, we might face deflation if ressession depens into full blown depression. In that case our debt is even more onerous.

My worthless $0.02

[MadeInTaiwan]

Don’t know about gold, but I agree that oil long term will be high. However, I would caution against simply buying oil stock. The reason is that big Oil is in trouble. Their bookable reserves (reserves that they control) are not being replenished. The reason is more and more new fields are being controlled by states (like Russia, Velenzuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, former Soviet states in the ‘Stan area). Read up the blog by Josh Levin at oilandglory.com. If current trends holds (who knows, the low prices could break the Sovereign oil companies) Oil multinationals will either adapt to oil service companies or die.

By the way, there are some sign that before inflation, we might face deflation if ressession depens into full blown depression. In that case our debt is even more onerous.

My worthless $0.02

[MadeInTaiwan]

Don’t know about gold, but I agree that oil long term will be high. However, I would caution against simply buying oil stock. The reason is that big Oil is in trouble. Their bookable reserves (reserves that they control) are not being replenished. The reason is more and more new fields are being controlled by states (like Russia, Velenzuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, former Soviet states in the ‘Stan area). Read up the blog by Josh Levin at oilandglory.com. If current trends holds (who knows, the low prices could break the Sovereign oil companies) Oil multinationals will either adapt to oil service companies or die.

By the way, there are some sign that before inflation, we might face deflation if ressession depens into full blown depression. In that case our debt is even more onerous.

My worthless $0.02

[MadeInTaiwan]

Don’t know about gold, but I agree that oil long term will be high. However, I would caution against simply buying oil stock. The reason is that big Oil is in trouble. Their bookable reserves (reserves that they control) are not being replenished. The reason is more and more new fields are being controlled by states (like Russia, Velenzuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, former Soviet states in the ‘Stan area). Read up the blog by Josh Levin at oilandglory.com. If current trends holds (who knows, the low prices could break the Sovereign oil companies) Oil multinationals will either adapt to oil service companies or die.

By the way, there are some sign that before inflation, we might face deflation if ressession depens into full blown depression. In that case our debt is even more onerous.

My worthless $0.02

[MadeInTaiwan]

Don’t know about gold, but I agree that oil long term will be high. However, I would caution against simply buying oil stock. The reason is that big Oil is in trouble. Their bookable reserves (reserves that they control) are not being replenished. The reason is more and more new fields are being controlled by states (like Russia, Velenzuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, former Soviet states in the ‘Stan area). Read up the blog by Josh Levin at oilandglory.com. If current trends holds (who knows, the low prices could break the Sovereign oil companies) Oil multinationals will either adapt to oil service companies or die.

By the way, there are some sign that before inflation, we might face deflation if ressession depens into full blown depression. In that case our debt is even more onerous.

My worthless $0.02

[MadeInTaiwan]

But I really did not mean to trumpet my own investment strategy. What is interesting to me about the article is its assertion that bubbles are inevitable cycles of capitalism, and every participant are acting fairly rationally in his/her “irrational exuberance.”

I suppose a crafty investor can (and have) win big by betting against the herd, but for the majority it simply is not possible due to human nature.

Too bad when the next big bubble comes I’ll probably be long dead (or near death) to profit from the knowledge. Do hope to pass it on to my kids though.

[MadeInTaiwan]

But I really did not mean to trumpet my own investment strategy. What is interesting to me about the article is its assertion that bubbles are inevitable cycles of capitalism, and every participant are acting fairly rationally in his/her “irrational exuberance.”

I suppose a crafty investor can (and have) win big by betting against the herd, but for the majority it simply is not possible due to human nature.

Too bad when the next big bubble comes I’ll probably be long dead (or near death) to profit from the knowledge. Do hope to pass it on to my kids though.

[MadeInTaiwan]

But I really did not mean to trumpet my own investment strategy. What is interesting to me about the article is its assertion that bubbles are inevitable cycles of capitalism, and every participant are acting fairly rationally in his/her “irrational exuberance.”

I suppose a crafty investor can (and have) win big by betting against the herd, but for the majority it simply is not possible due to human nature.

Too bad when the next big bubble comes I’ll probably be long dead (or near death) to profit from the knowledge. Do hope to pass it on to my kids though.

[MadeInTaiwan]

But I really did not mean to trumpet my own investment strategy. What is interesting to me about the article is its assertion that bubbles are inevitable cycles of capitalism, and every participant are acting fairly rationally in his/her “irrational exuberance.”

I suppose a crafty investor can (and have) win big by betting against the herd, but for the majority it simply is not possible due to human nature.

Too bad when the next big bubble comes I’ll probably be long dead (or near death) to profit from the knowledge. Do hope to pass it on to my kids though.

[MadeInTaiwan]

But I really did not mean to trumpet my own investment strategy. What is interesting to me about the article is its assertion that bubbles are inevitable cycles of capitalism, and every participant are acting fairly rationally in his/her “irrational exuberance.”

I suppose a crafty investor can (and have) win big by betting against the herd, but for the majority it simply is not possible due to human nature.

Too bad when the next big bubble comes I’ll probably be long dead (or near death) to profit from the knowledge. Do hope to pass it on to my kids though.

[MadeInTaiwan]

That is if I sell today correct? Since all of my cost average index investment is long term (20, 30 years from today) I am hoping for an overall gain 🙂

My understanding is that the U.S. stock market historically averages 7-9% return (don’t remember if it is adjusted for inflation), which makes it the safest investment taking inflation as a risk. Besides, if there is sufficient systemic problems for a 15-20 year decline then I figure I’d got more problems to worry about then loosing my nest egg.

My squint eye view of market graphs tells me that the market doesn’t move very much most of the time, but have big jumps and dips. While we can say that the market is overvalued, it is hard tell when the correction comes. More importantly, if you may miss the rises, and this is assuming that you make the correct call on where to put your money instead of the stock market.

I just figured a low cost, index funds like Vanguard allows for best combo of low anxiety, low fee, low maintenance, high return for me. I’ts what Warrent Buffet recommends for most foundations, pension funds, and it is good enough for me.

[MadeInTaiwan]

That is if I sell today correct? Since all of my cost average index investment is long term (20, 30 years from today) I am hoping for an overall gain 🙂

My understanding is that the U.S. stock market historically averages 7-9% return (don’t remember if it is adjusted for inflation), which makes it the safest investment taking inflation as a risk. Besides, if there is sufficient systemic problems for a 15-20 year decline then I figure I’d got more problems to worry about then loosing my nest egg.

My squint eye view of market graphs tells me that the market doesn’t move very much most of the time, but have big jumps and dips. While we can say that the market is overvalued, it is hard tell when the correction comes. More importantly, if you may miss the rises, and this is assuming that you make the correct call on where to put your money instead of the stock market.

I just figured a low cost, index funds like Vanguard allows for best combo of low anxiety, low fee, low maintenance, high return for me. I’ts what Warrent Buffet recommends for most foundations, pension funds, and it is good enough for me.

[MadeInTaiwan]

That is if I sell today correct? Since all of my cost average index investment is long term (20, 30 years from today) I am hoping for an overall gain 🙂

My understanding is that the U.S. stock market historically averages 7-9% return (don’t remember if it is adjusted for inflation), which makes it the safest investment taking inflation as a risk. Besides, if there is sufficient systemic problems for a 15-20 year decline then I figure I’d got more problems to worry about then loosing my nest egg.

My squint eye view of market graphs tells me that the market doesn’t move very much most of the time, but have big jumps and dips. While we can say that the market is overvalued, it is hard tell when the correction comes. More importantly, if you may miss the rises, and this is assuming that you make the correct call on where to put your money instead of the stock market.

I just figured a low cost, index funds like Vanguard allows for best combo of low anxiety, low fee, low maintenance, high return for me. I’ts what Warrent Buffet recommends for most foundations, pension funds, and it is good enough for me.

[MadeInTaiwan]

That is if I sell today correct? Since all of my cost average index investment is long term (20, 30 years from today) I am hoping for an overall gain 🙂

My understanding is that the U.S. stock market historically averages 7-9% return (don’t remember if it is adjusted for inflation), which makes it the safest investment taking inflation as a risk. Besides, if there is sufficient systemic problems for a 15-20 year decline then I figure I’d got more problems to worry about then loosing my nest egg.

My squint eye view of market graphs tells me that the market doesn’t move very much most of the time, but have big jumps and dips. While we can say that the market is overvalued, it is hard tell when the correction comes. More importantly, if you may miss the rises, and this is assuming that you make the correct call on where to put your money instead of the stock market.

I just figured a low cost, index funds like Vanguard allows for best combo of low anxiety, low fee, low maintenance, high return for me. I’ts what Warrent Buffet recommends for most foundations, pension funds, and it is good enough for me.

[MadeInTaiwan]

That is if I sell today correct? Since all of my cost average index investment is long term (20, 30 years from today) I am hoping for an overall gain 🙂

My understanding is that the U.S. stock market historically averages 7-9% return (don’t remember if it is adjusted for inflation), which makes it the safest investment taking inflation as a risk. Besides, if there is sufficient systemic problems for a 15-20 year decline then I figure I’d got more problems to worry about then loosing my nest egg.

My squint eye view of market graphs tells me that the market doesn’t move very much most of the time, but have big jumps and dips. While we can say that the market is overvalued, it is hard tell when the correction comes. More importantly, if you may miss the rises, and this is assuming that you make the correct call on where to put your money instead of the stock market.

I just figured a low cost, index funds like Vanguard allows for best combo of low anxiety, low fee, low maintenance, high return for me. I’ts what Warrent Buffet recommends for most foundations, pension funds, and it is good enough for me.

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