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livinincali
Participant[quote=joec]
All I can say as a data point is all the houses near my hood now are > 4k/month rent in stucco 4S McMansion hood and my mortgage even though I am stuck with a higher rate will soon be close to 2k month without tax calculations/benefits (still have prop tax though).
[/quote]I honestly don’t understand people renting a 4K a month property unless it’s intended to be a temporary thing. I think those kind of markets are a pretty poor gauge of the rental market.
Participant[quote=utcsox]
I am not aware of rents are going down in Los Angeles or San Francisco. According to Zillow, monthly changes in rent is 0.7% in LA and 0.3% in SF. Annual Changes are 3.8% in LA and 9.9% in SF. The pace of increase might has slowed, but I have not seen any evidence that rents are actually decreasing.http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/rental/ZRI.San%20Francisco.395057.pdf
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/rental/ZRI.Los%20Angeles-Long%20Beach-Anaheim.753899.pdf%5B/quote%5DAsking rent declined slightly Q4 2015 to Q1 2016 in San Diego, but the annual spring pop is back at the highest ever Q2 2016 > Q4 2015. This years spring pop isn’t as high as in previous years and the huge ramp that started at the beginning on 2014 seems to have slowed down in the past 4 quarters. We’ll see what happens, but I wouldn’t envision any major shifts downward in the next year or so. These kind of markets move pretty slowly. It’s not really worth paying too much attention to them more than a couple times a year.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
6. Finally, why are people hopeful with Trump? What are the concrete things Trump will do for them? Or it is a hopey changey thing?[/quote]Hope and change worked for Obama. It didn’t necessarily work out for many American’s that voted for it but it appears to be a good campaign slogan. Hilary better come up with something good, because you got to admit that Trump’s “Make American Great Again” is a pretty good one.
The economic reality is that people are failing to compete in this world. They are all looking for some kind of advantage or to overcome some sort of real or perceived disadvantage. That failure to compete is driving anxiety and fear. They are looking for someone to create barriers to the competition they are facing. Democrats and Republicans both crater to their voting base with various protections from competition.
ParticipantTiersanta as a whole would probably be considered the nicest community. It’s newer construction (i.e. 1980’s instead of 50’s and 60’s), probably has the best rated schools, lowest crime etc. It’s also probably the most expensive as a whole. La Mesa and Clairemont have pockets of nice areas and ares that are not as nice. Serra Mesa is probably most similar to Clairemont. Linda Vista which is south of Clairemont and West of Serra Mesa might be the best gamble for appreciation/value because it has a reputation of being ghetto You could see it revitalized over the next 5-10 years like North Park/Golden Hills and the central location is good.
Participant[quote=AN]
I can’t speak for everyone, but I’m definitely one data point to contribute to this statement. I’ve been voting R or L for a long while. I’m going through and asking all Republicans whether they endorse Trump now. If they say yes, I’ll vote for someone else, even if that someone else has a D in front of their name.
Luckily, Faulkner does not endorse Trump.[/quote]We live in CA it really doesn’t matter that much. Maybe at the local level or if a republican held the 52nd district.
Participant[quote=enron_by_the_sea]
So if I were you, I would be very worried about Trump’s first statement that he will renegotiate US debt when economy goes bad. Then two days later he basically says he will inflate his way out of debt. If the treasury markets starts believing such rhetoric (they are not believing it yet), the interest rates will go up fast and there goes all the real estate/stock/bond values.
[/quote]Isn’t this eventually going to happen no matter who is president. It’s painfully obvious that we aren’t paying all the US debt back in full without inflating it away or defaulting on it. The only real alternative to not doing either one of those things is dramatically reducing medical care/military spending and running a budget surplus, but we just aren’t going to do either of those things with the status quo politicians. I wouldn’t worry to much about Trump telling us the truth of the economic debt situation. There’s an asset price/debt reset coming we just don’t know when it’s going to happen.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]The easiest way to stop medical cost growth is to cap health care at a percentage of GDP, not to allow unlimited choices. Simple concept business people should understand. But Republicans blocked that in Obamacare.[/quote]
Have you even put an ounce of thought into how you would cap medical costs to a percentage of GDP? First you estimate GDP. Let’s say 15 trillion. Then we decide on a percentage let’s use 20%, we’re pretty close to that now (although most people would like to see it closer to 10%). So 3 trillion dollars. So now how do we manage every provider and payer so that we don’t exceed the $3 trillon limit. Let’s just do that the easiest way you can think of single payer. Doing it any other way would be next to impossible.
So now how do you manage the cap. Do you just stop paying people for providing services once the cap is reached for the year. Do you have to approve every elective procedure that anybody might want. Do you have to create a group to decide who can have what medical care and at what facility in order to manage this cap. It’s gets really hard really quickly doesn’t it.
Seems like it would be a lot easier if you just opened it up to competition. You can’t open a MRI imaging facility in San Diego even if you had the appropriate training and financing for the equipment. CON laws prevent you from doing that. Somebody can’t create an import export company that buys drugs for fractions of the price in India and then opens a pharmacy here.
That’s where the problem is the artificially reduced competition that pushes prices so high. The complete fraud in billing practices where hospitals can bill one patient a completely different amount that another patient for the same procedure. You do that in any other business you go to prison. If your a gas station owner and double the price of gas before a hurricane you go to jail. If you’re a hospital that’s completely fine.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]BG, if you claim that trump supporters are well-off middle class Americans, then how do you explain their discontent? People who do well like the establishment.
[/quote]Not really. Most of us here can certainly make due with the establishment, but I don’t know that any of us is really happy with the lies, the bribes err campaign contributions, and excessive regulations (well at least those excessive regulations that effect us). I’m sure I can make due under Sanders, Clinton, Trump, even some Evangelical like Cruz.
The biggest issue facing the country is what we are going to do with the excessive expansion in Medical costs. Those cost increases are eventually going to bankrupt the country. I don’t have a lot of faith in any of the candidates to really do something about the medical monopoly problems but I think Trump probably has the best shot at doing something about it.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
I like to watch hot Thai kitchen on YouTube (based in what you posted before, she might be your type). I like her because she’s a real cordon bleu chef who uses all the right culinary terminologies (more elitism). Her food is not all healthy (actually, a lot bad for you) but she’s entertaining and I use some of her tips to make my cooking more flavorful. Calling my cooking flavorful is a stretch. My friends think it’s awful and I have to order out when I have people over.[/quote]Well you told us you don’t like to use salt so of course it’s going to taste bad. I haven’t found anybody that can make good food without at least using some salt. Even Asian food where you might not use table salt directly is going to have a salty component like soy sauce/fish sauce/Oyster sauce/Hot sauce.
May 4, 2016 at 11:19 AM in reply to: how to test the waters selling OB lots zoned for 8 total units #797268ParticipantI’d go with loopnet. Zillow/MLS folks are looking for turn key properties to live in, not development opportunities.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
What better time to build infrastructure? The USA should really go out on an infrastructure binge to help growth.[/quote]Well as long as it’s useful infrastructure and doesn’t involve massively overpaying for it. Of course we like to spend billions on building high speed train tracks from Madera to Fresno County. China likes to build empty cities and Japan builds bridges to nowhere. Productive infrastructure investment sure. Governments figuring out what’s productive, not so much.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
So I think we’ll have a couple more years of low rates which will be good for housing.[/quote]We could have a really long period of low rates. That’s probably good for the housing market to a degree but it isn’t as good as the previous 3 decades of continually falling rates.
ParticipantWell looks like it’s Trump for the Republican nomination unless they do something crazy at the convention and blow up their party. Cruz is dropping out after getting slaughtered in Indiana.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/03/ted-cruz-suspends-campaign.html
Participant[quote=AN][quote=FlyerInHi]Flu, I think you’re saying that “no cost” loans are better because they allow you to refinance again and again, guilt free (loss avoidance. You’re not “throwing away” out of pocket fees. That’s the marketing angle.
But past is past. Make decisions based on what you know today.[/quote]
Do you have a crystal ball i can borrow?[/quote]It’s probably safe to assume that secular trend of steadily lower and lower rates from the early 1980’s until now is coming to an end. Not that rates will rise significantly from here but mid 2’s maybe 2 is probably the lower limit. It might make sense to pay a little bit for a lower rate now where as in the past 30 years it probably didn’t. Of course you didn’t necessarily know that at the time.
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