[lindismith]

Very interesting reading!

Your comment, “without any consideration of how this can be sustained,” I think is apt for a few other aspects of our society: over-eating, health-care, the environment, access to oil, and just general over-consumption of more and more stuff! It makes sense that the housing market fits right in too. People really believe they can keep on eating, and their body will just adjust! Or, they really believe they can just keep driving gas-guzzlers, and not put a dent in the world’s oil supply.

I wonder if attitudes will change when things start to hurt? Logically they should, but I read a quote from Ken Lay (Enron) over the weekend (when talking about his trial) that even when things were going downhill, he spent $200K on a boat for his wife, because ‘turning off the spending spicket’ was just too difficult. I was stunned to say the least.

[lindismith]

Ok, so 4pm July 22, at Today’s Pizza and Salad.

For the address and phone number, go here.
Today’s Pizza And Salad – contact us page.
They are off I-5, Santa Fe Exit, on the west side of the freeway in the Vons/Rite Aid shopping center.

I talked to the guy that answered the phone. He said they can accomodate 75 people. If you think you are going to come, add an RSVP of “yes” to this so we can give them a head’s up that a small group is coming!

[lindismith]

Why don’t we just stick to the 15th? I think everyone has sort of been counting on that. Perhaps if we meet up in the early evening that would be good? Say 5pm?

Perhaps we can meet Rich a different time….

[lindismith]

Well it just goes to show you how pervasive this lending/RE/speculative trend is. It’s one thing to happen in California, where everything has a bit of a ‘gold rush’ mentality, but I agree, it’s a huge problem if it’s happening in Omaha.

Someone recently posted a link to a real estate forum that advocated investing in real estate, and I was really blown away by how ignorant the some of the posts were. In one of them, the participants were asking one guy how he chose his investments. He had no answer but to mention his broker, who did all his homework for him! And, then the broker chimed in too explaining how to contact her. Unbelievable!

My sense is that these real estate ‘investors’ will just keep chasing the next area for ‘opportunity’ until one of the bubble areas shows massive signs of bursting, and then they’ll pull back. But I really think the hemorrhaging won’t start showing here in So Cal for another few months, and by then I’m sure a few more places across the country will have been subject to investment speculation and the whole cycle will follow.

[lindismith]

You were actually lucky Homey, to get out when you did.

When you bought in 2004, had you heard about the bubble – had you heard real estate values were seriously over-inflated? Or were you someone who believed the mantra that ‘real estate only goes up in value’?

Lastly, was your job change a complete surprise? Or was that something you also knew could happen in the future, but didn’t consider because ‘real estate only goes up’?

Am just trying to understand the mentality of people who bought at the top of the market.

[lindismith]

Homey,
What made you sell it so fast? It sounds like you bought it with the intention of flipping it? Is that the case?
Was this your first time doing something like this?

[lindismith]

CONCHO, did your source have any idea what the value of that revenue is per year? It’s got to be HUGE!

[lindismith]

Is everyone still planning on meeting? If so, what time?

I can bring little, “Hello My Name Is” stickers, for us to put our user names on!

[lindismith]

Bugs,
I didn’t know there were 2 more freeways once planned – can you elaborate? Were they actually planned or just proposed? Where were they supposed to go in?

Personally, I’d prefer to see high-speed public transport on our existing freeways (maybe built overhead in the center?) than more freeways for more cars.

[lindismith]

Anyone (or almost anyone) can come here on a tourist visa and just stay.

To work, they can buy a green card illegally.

Illegals pay taxes if they have fake green cards (because they pay into the account of the person who’s ss# they are using.)
They don’t pay taxes if they get paid in cash, which is what the majority of construction workers are paid in.

I agree with Bugs (always the voice of reason and rational on this forum!) that most of them will go home when the boom ends, and we don’t need them anymore.

[lindismith]

The stench is in IB, Coronado, Chula Vista, National City etc. The people who live in these areas know about this problem all too well. Whether or not they are prepared to force the city to do something about it is another issue.

I am a member of Surfrider, SD Chapter, and the sewage from TJ is a major concern for us.

Beaches were closed too many days in South County last year after the rains.

By the way, no one should ever swim in ANY of our beaches 3 days after it has rained more than 1/5 – 1/2 an inch. And there are some who say, wait 5 days.

If anyone has any questions for Surfrider they would like answered about this, please feel free to email me directly at lindismith@hotmail(dot)com.

Ultimately, the sewage problem, if left untreated, is going to pose a huge problem to real estate values in Coronado, because the beaches are a big part of Coronado’s beauty. But filthy beaches, with water that makes swimmers sick, is not good for residents or tourists. Bajagua is the project planned to treat a large portion of the problem, but it will not solve all of it. At least it is a start.

[lindismith]

I log into Zip Realty weekly, just to watch what’s happening in my market, Mission Hills/Hillcrest. At the beginning of the year, a lot of inventory appeared on the MLS – condos, single family homes, and tri/duplexes etc. The trend I noticed is that the condos and homes have stayed on the market, most of them re-listing after 90 days (to manipulate DOM) but usually relisting at their last price range. Interestingly, the multis have not re-listed. It led me to believe their owners were most likely investors, who didn’t really NEED to sell, and were just “testing the market.” I know it’s only anecdotal, and I have no hard data/evidence, but it makes sense to me. So, for once I’m giving SDR a little credit and agreeing that we don’t know what % are just testing the market. It does make sense however that if I don’t have to sell, I would just see if I can at least get some ‘bites’.

[lindismith]

This was a great report, Powayseller.

As a business owner who does not offer health insurance to my employees, it made me realize I’m possibly being very irresponsible by not offering it to them. At the same time, for me to stay competitive in manufacturing, high(er) labor costs could put me out of business.

How do I offer my employees health insurance so they aren’t racking up credit card debt? How do we as a society get people off the emergency-credit-card-to-the-rescue cycle? How do we offer low cost health care? Since most of my employees are Spanish, I know a lot of them go over the border to the doctor, but that’s not always possible in an emergency.

Does anyone know of any health plans out there I could investigate?

On a related note, this report made me realize how people with a lot of credit card debt find ARMs attractive because they can pay off their credit card debt, and just make one low mortgage payment. The problem is if the lender preyed on their ignorance and got them into a loan that really wasn’t right for them….. and now it’s adjusting. This scenario must be fairly common.

[lindismith]

Those are interesting questions about bling, Bugs. I think during prosperous times, yes (like the ’80s) it was the fashion to look prosperous, but then when we had the recession in the early ’90s, the Grunge look was in. Fashion does change, but the problem with a big house is that it can’t really change. It has to stay as big as it is.

I do know that the pre-fab market for houses has gained a little traction during this housing prosperity period because they are a pretty cheap alternative for buyers, and they are generally smaller. There is an awesome magazine called “Dwell” about the whole pre-fab market. The prefabs that tend to be gaining the most ground are the ones that take a modular approach – start small, and then as your family grows, buy another modular component, and add on. They’re pretty cool.

I think the other trend we’ll see going forward is more customization by builders on tract developments. One of the big problems with tracts is that one house doesn’t differ from the next. So, successful builders, or at least ones that want to stay in business, will be forced to offer more differentiation. Maybe going smaller will be one option? There are plenty of single people (or people without kids) that want a house, but don’t need a huge one, and something smaller in a nice development would allow for more potential buyers.

[lindismith]

I’m in manufacturing. Our phones have been very light for the last 2-3 weeks. We are unsure if it’s because summer is starting, or if it’s the beginnning of something bigger.

My plant is in Chula Vista. On days that it rains, you would not believe the stench coming from TJ. As a business owner, and environmentalist, I support Bajagua, which is the facility planned to treat TJ sewage. It will not treat all of it, but it will make a big dent. TJ has grown at such a rapid pace; unfortunately they just don’t have the infrastructure to deal with so many millions of people.

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