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lindismith
ParticipantAccording to the link that Rich posted:
The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For more information, see the latest announcement on how the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee chooses turning points in the Economy and its latest memo, dated 07/17/03.
Source:
Public Information Office
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge MA 02138
USA617-868-3900
ParticipantYes, this will help.
For one, it will help people searching for specific information related to each topic.
And two, it will cut out the amount of repitition or duplication of ideas within different threads. (This is the main reason PS is burning out on us – as she has to keep repeating what she wrote a month ago, a week ago, a day ago, an hour ago, etc.)
ParticipantI know part of the reason I’m here is because Powayseller posts so much information that’s really provocative.
Without her on the board, the last couple of days were so boring.
I think we’re all leaning her way (well, 99% of us,) else we wouldn’t be here.
It’s great how much time she spends researching, and then pushing the envelope with people who try to refute her.
If I had more time, I’d be posting more, but I know she’s going to say exactly what I’m thinking. (Albeit a little more to the point/blunt, than I would. And that is the best part!!!!) Anyone agree with that?
Participantthe entry level software engineer making 50k is going to make 80k in 5 years.
Can this guy really afford a median-priced home in SD?
Assuming he purchased during his second year of work, knowing he’s going to get an increase in pay, but thinking “that’s ok, I’ll be getting an increase in pay so when my loan increases in 3 years, I’ll be covered.”
JES, who has the breakdown of that info?
ParticipantI’d still like to see detailed demographics on ARMS, option ARMS, I/O’s and 100% financing, so that one could gauge the impact effectively. What are the odds that lenders or Fannie Mae release that info ???
Yes, I’d like to know this too.
I studied that list of top 80 employers in SD last night, and they (the companies listed) just don’t pay that well.
Maybe it’s all these mid-sized employers that pay so well? It’s like people say, attorneys and software developers working for start-ups? But how many of those people exist compared to just regular folks, trying to live the American Dream? And wouldn’t they (the attorneys and software developers) have more ability to see past the predatory loan sharks, and not actually take out the suicide loans?
I’ve lived here along time. The salaries have never been high. I wish we had some recruiters/hr people who could tell us what people really earn.
I’ve heard so many stories about those stated income loans where a grocery clerk and a truck driver say they earn $200K/year, and those are the ones that are going to lose it all.
I just think it’s going to really get ugly very soon….
ParticipantHow much did yours go up? Is that why you dumped it?
If someone can tell me where to find SD numbers, or who to call, let me know, and I’ll dig around.
If it weren’t a problem, Fannie Mae wouldn’t be talking about it.
Participantyes, it will be an interesting week next week. Let’s see what the unemployment figures look like this Friday….
Participantok, thanks for clarifying.
ParticipantGovernments cap salaries too, right?
(oh, wait, actually you can just pay yourself a huge never-ending pension right?…..)
I’m still really bothered by that list. Which companies are the ones paying the 25-50% increases in salaries?
Participantyes, that sounds about right.
What’s crazy is that all but 2 in the top 10 are gov.
ParticipantThe big employers I know are SAIC, UCSD, and Qualcomm. I believe they are the 3 biggest.
If I have time, I’ll research this. I want to because I had to laugh out loud last week when someone wrote that people would be able to handle their ARM adjustments because they would get big increases in pay. San Diego has notoriously had no businesses headquartered here (and thus very few high-paying jobs), and is extremely low on the salary scale to begin with.
Participantyeah, me too. I’m almost a little excited for the downturn, because I want to see what I’m capable of. I want to prove myself (both right and wrong,) and see if I can get through it, and perhaps even grow!
The families I employ – yeah, I have some people that have been with the company 23 years! They are relying on me/us.
[BTW VCJim, do you offer health insurance to your employees? If you do, can you email me at lindismith at hotmail and let me know what you offer.]
Why did it strike a chord with you?
ParticipantYeah, thanks for that Rich. 2 quarters seems survive-able. Why did the one in the early 90s seem so painful?
VCJim, I’m doing everything I can right now to prepare. I’ve increased marketing, I’ve put more processes in place to close sales, and I’m having the factory evaluate which products can be re-tooled to lower costs. It’s never-ending!
As for the war machine: let’s face it, it’s unethical and immoral to use war to stimulate the economy. In my mind there are so many other options. And when I learn there is a specific process whereby the government can provide stimulus and incentives to businesses to better our country’s future, I get so frustrated to think they might not choose that path. I frankly think politicians are just too out of touch with what has changed in the world, and what we want for our country and our children going forward; they just rely on the same old bs responses to the same old bs problems. I’m soooo ready for a clean sweep.
It’s pretty clear if they cut rates, we’ll have to have the ‘Sarbanes Oxley’ or some version thereof, applied to the loan biz.
Maybe I’m taking all this too seriously.
Participantlindismith, can you comment on the latest 2 companies to leave CA? (Nissan, Sanyo)
I have done business with Sanyo in the past. (Supplying them with polybags.) It is just a small part of my own business, but it illustrates the impact a large company has in a geographic region. Not only have those jobs left, but all the small and medium-sized businesses doing business on the periphery are affected. It will not be a huge loss for me, but incrementally these losses add up. The printer no longer prints business cards, the janitorial services aren’t needed, the security firms, the gas station on the corner, the restaurants etc. etc. Businesses in Tennessee will now get all that business. It is the same for Nissan leaving Gardena.
I don’t hear of companies moving to San Diego either.
I don’t know what can be done to stop these companies from leaving.
If it isn’t the high energy costs,
Energy costs are high. People don’t talk about it, but I remember when Enron was gouging California a couple of years ago, the pizza guy on the corner closed down because his electric bill went from $200/month to $900. It will be interesting to see what happens when everyone gets their a/c bill for July in a couple of weeks. (Relatedly, I have heard that people will only start taking climate change seriously when it hits their pocket books. Is this the start?)
high taxes and workers comp costs get you
I don’t think taxes are that high (relative to other countries,) but yeah, our second biggest bill behind the rent is workman’s comp. Arnie has provided some relief, but it’s not enough. As a medium-sized business, I (personally as a biz-owner) would have so much more income if I wasn’t paying what I pay in workman’s comp. It’s really still out of control in my opinion.
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