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I apologize too. I do not blame realtors for the mess we are in. The American public at-large is composed of all those jackasses we went to high school went, the majority of whom are extremely stupid. Sometimes, when I consider who I am driving down the highway with and I consider the judgment and reactionary skills of those same people, I ask myself if I am crazy for being in such close proximity to “rolling disaster”. These are the people, along with the Fed, that I blame.

I actually know and respect many realtors. Many are sh&theads, too. Just open up the Sunday UT housing section every Sunday and you’ll see some dickhead telling Joe Q. Public that it has never been a better time to buy. So…sorry for the personal attack. (Unless YOU are that guy…just kidding)

Finally, on the “major crash” subject….since the pendulum always swings to the extremes with asset price bubbles, it appears inevitable that it will occur with this housing boom as well. My point is that the sooner it happens, the sooner we can return to a “normal” market. There will be pain and I don’t truly wish pain on anyone…my friends and family own houses. I have owned and sold two houses myself. You must be tired, as I am, of hearing the VAST MAJORITY of agents talking about a plateau, soft landing, or this being a return to “normal” market conditions. This is what kills me.

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Dude, when did “used-house salesman” become a “profession”?

Seriously though, the uselessness of most real estate salespeople is what gets most people’s goat right now. And it is also what will ENSURE that we soon will arrive at a flat fee structure for real estate transactions…something like $2500 per dwelling like the guy up in Seattle is doing. I’d love to bring THAT franchise down here. Hell…it might be the only way to help those poor fools paying today’s prices in Bressi, 4S, and any other “Ranch” you can think of, get out from under those stucco sh&tboxes in a year or two.

Methinks, playtime with the realtor is over.

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I have encouraged people to call the sales office for Wisteria Place. I did. And I found out that what I am talking about is accurate. Also, you have ignored the clues I described like visiting the website for Bressi Ranch which is http://www.bressiranch.com and then clicking on communities, scrolling over the neighborhood of Wisteria Place and seeing the words (PLAIN AS DAY) “Anticipated pricing from the low 800s”, then clicking through and seeing the words “from the mid 600s”, you are ignoring something that is obvious. Considering your “upgrades” to the models which the website said would be in the “800s”…it should be easy to see that a house or two or ten may have sold in there for WELL OVER $800,000.

I HAVE been there. I have the prices a/o 3/25/06 on my desk. I said this was going to be eye-opening.

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Okay. We are not down 25%, just 10% or so…I am most interested in your interest in making sure the facts are “not misrepresented”. I sure as hell haven’t seen ONE single Realtor out there making a statement to the local rag sheets, trying to set the record straight about a SH*T TON of misrepresentations over the last two and a half years. Where were you?

Also, I’m sure you have been asked the question about “is now a good time to buy”? What has been your answer? Yes..no? Or have you given tacit, yet not outright approval (like a nod) when someone has asked you like this: “I better buy now or risk pricing out forever, right?” If so, this is intellectually dis-honest and, of course, about as mis-leading as it gets.

Glad to hear of someone as pissed about mis-leading statements as I am. Since you are in the business and I am not, why don’t you get out there and do something about it? It will benefit ALL of us, as the sooner this bubble bursts (and it will..it can’t be stopped now, nor should it be) the sooner folks can return to treating their houses as homes, rather than investments. (This is the way is almost always has been in this country.)

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Look sdrealtor,

I appreciate your insight. I also can assure you that my posts are delivered with insight as well. Let’s assume that the model home in Wisteria Place had $100K in upgrades (and I am being generous here). Since it sold for $875,500 and an equivalent home could be had today for $761,000 ($661,000 plus $100K) it looks more like a 13% discount YOY. But David Lie-reah and Blanche Evans and Appleton-Young said things could only go up?!?!

The point I am making here is this: some poor bastard is pretty unhappy about this (ask them in the sales office) and you said it yourself…the good deals in this community are killing the resales in the next door community. If people only knew how to extrapolate…

We have “summitted” the slippery slope and the downward pressure is ON, big time. As we stopped in on open houses and the models in 4S Ranch yesterday and shared the news of what you could get just 2.5 miles from the ocean (2400 sq. ft nicely appointed home) for $661,000 (new construction no less), the realtors and model salespeople were paying keen attention and they were like…REALLY?!?!

On another note, bugs said it best when he said this price drop in Bressi Ranch is surprising, considering this thing hasn’t begun to go south yet. My aim in distributing this info to the North County Times and UT is to encourage people to wise up, think for themselves, and ask “why would I buy ANYTHING right now, when I know that when sales don’t pick up, I am going to have the re-sale value of my house SEVERELY UNDERCUT by someone else who needs to sell and has a MUCH LOWER COST BASIS than I do?”

Nobody wants to be immediately underwater. Most people do not realize that if they buy today, they are doing so pretty darn near a “generational peak” and they are all immediately underwater with no hope for a life ring.

Think of the poor schmucks who bought those models in Bressi Ranch…what will their houses be appraised for next year and the year after? Nobody should buy in there if they know the builder has a history of dropping prices in there without the crap even hitting the fan!! Geez…

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No upgrades…no premium lot. These are all “everything included” homes by Lennar.

Again, visit their website…www.bressiranch.com and open the link to “neighborhoods”…you will clearly see that they had “Anticipated prices” FROM the $800s clearly listed on their own website…now they are starting in the $630K range a/o 3/25/06 listing sheet I hold in my hand today.

Lennar is just the first to realize that they better cut and run soon, because they must know it is going to get ugly out there. I’d hate to be the guy who just recommended somebody buy a house anywhere in San Diego County right now.

I’m going to do MY BEST to get this shocking example of what is really going on into the UT and North County Times. People need to see it before they believe it…

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I have learned that, indeed, the house mentioned earlier did sell for over $800K and it is in Wisteria Place.

The exact same homes can be had TODAY for the low-mid $600s. If you don’t believe it, go into the sales office and ask for yourself. It will be a very eye-opening experience.

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No. There’s no info on zillow on any of the streets listed, a friend is awaiting a call back from Lennar reps (not holding his breath) to verify this information. One thing is for sure though…at the Bressi Ranch website (www.bressiranch.com), under neighborhoods, rolling over Wisteria Place I see “Anticipated pricing from the low $800’s”, yet “clicking through” yields the following contradictory “Anticipated pricing from the Mid $600,000s” so I believe this is accurate stuff.

I plan to go in there sometime soon myself and ask about this point blank. If true, this info NEEDS to be brought to the attention of the public by whatever means necessary.

Any insight sdrealtor? Do you know about this development and why it might be available for over $200K less today than a year ago?? It’s in North County Coastal, too, by the way.

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I think you will lose because your prediction is WAY too conservative. I hope you said %20 percent or more.

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Check that Poway listing today…”Killer deal. Must sell!” Incredible!

There’s blood in the water (and it’s the FIRST day of Spring!!)

This should “kill” comps.

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I think it’s more denial…

I can remember recommending one of my clients trim her holdings of CSCO in favor of SYSCO right before the NASDAQ 5300+ fiasco tipped over. She balked. She didn’t want to believe that tech stocks wouldn’t go straight up forever.

Denial cost her dearly, that is for sure. Same thing will happen this time around. You should get this guy to autograph his opinion for you.

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Powayseller-

I would love to know the names of these Realtors, as we are going to buy in Poway, after prices come down by 40-50%, or else we are going to leave my native state for “saner” pastures. I’d like to pick their brains to learn what I am missing here?!

I suspect many of us like-minded “bubbleheads” have similar ideas….either this thing gets back to the way it should be or else we are gone..I can buy an awfully nice house in a lot of really neat places for a heck of a lot less. Would I like to stay here? Sure…but at what cost?!

BTW..I am fairly certain the house you mentioned in Poway with all the price reductions yesterday (I think) is owned by a Realtor. You should find out what she thinks about the future.

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Powayseller,

This is probably the same house mentioned in the second page of the forum topic “I dropped in on an open house just for fun” from Jan. 28…it’s quite remarkable what a little pushback from a “bubblehead” can cause a nervous owner/agent to do. I’ll bet the neighbors will want to slay her for destroying the comps (if she isn’t undercut herself and I suspect that might just happen)

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