[KSMountain]

[quote=Arraya]The don’t want to stop it really. It’s a choice between collecting oil or stopping the leak. They can siphon but not stop it the way the damage happened. I suppose the could siphon enough to pay for the cleanup, maybe a little more, but people would not be too happy about them not stopping the leak.[/quote]
Let’s “Bring some Data”:
20,000 barrels per day at $75 per barrel. That’s assuming you could siphon all of it at neglibible cost (unlikely). But anyway, that would mean the value of what’s leaking is $1.5M per day.

Uh, they’ve spent a billion already, and likely going to be on the hook for say at least $10B. The current hit to their market cap is like $40B right?

10B/1.5M = 6667 days, or about 18 years. But I believe I heard the well would run dry on its own in 3 years…

I’m thinking all in all they’d prefer to stop the flow ASAP.

[KSMountain]

[quote=Arraya]The don’t want to stop it really. It’s a choice between collecting oil or stopping the leak. They can siphon but not stop it the way the damage happened. I suppose the could siphon enough to pay for the cleanup, maybe a little more, but people would not be too happy about them not stopping the leak.[/quote]
Let’s “Bring some Data”:
20,000 barrels per day at $75 per barrel. That’s assuming you could siphon all of it at neglibible cost (unlikely). But anyway, that would mean the value of what’s leaking is $1.5M per day.

Uh, they’ve spent a billion already, and likely going to be on the hook for say at least $10B. The current hit to their market cap is like $40B right?

10B/1.5M = 6667 days, or about 18 years. But I believe I heard the well would run dry on its own in 3 years…

I’m thinking all in all they’d prefer to stop the flow ASAP.

[KSMountain]

[quote=mike92104]I was wondering the same thing. I wondered if another blow out protector could be bolted in.[/quote]

This is being discussed at theoildrum.com, which I’ve been spending far too much time on after Arraya turned us on to it.

Folks there who claim to be knowledgable say the bolts were tightened to about 13000 ft-lbs on land, and that now underwater, if the lubrication has degraded (which it likely has), you typically need triple the torque to get ’em off.

Evidently tools of that capability that work in freezing water are not widely available. 🙂

Sawing the bolts off is an option. One person made the point though that one should not underestimate the flow. The flow is like 12000 PSI! Crazy. So you saw off a bolt or two, then you got these totally crazy oil jets hitting the robot, it’s gonna be kinda hard to get the other bolts out.

Basic point being, things are not as simple as they may seem at first. Even if we stipulate that *everyone* at BP is a complete idiot, which I highly doubt, even with that I imagine Obama has sent whatever smartest guys they can get from *wherever* national resources we have, in order to prevent being Katrina’d.

I’m sure they’re trying to be smart and fast, and it makes for gripping though sad viewing.

[KSMountain]

[quote=mike92104]I was wondering the same thing. I wondered if another blow out protector could be bolted in.[/quote]

This is being discussed at theoildrum.com, which I’ve been spending far too much time on after Arraya turned us on to it.

Folks there who claim to be knowledgable say the bolts were tightened to about 13000 ft-lbs on land, and that now underwater, if the lubrication has degraded (which it likely has), you typically need triple the torque to get ’em off.

Evidently tools of that capability that work in freezing water are not widely available. 🙂

Sawing the bolts off is an option. One person made the point though that one should not underestimate the flow. The flow is like 12000 PSI! Crazy. So you saw off a bolt or two, then you got these totally crazy oil jets hitting the robot, it’s gonna be kinda hard to get the other bolts out.

Basic point being, things are not as simple as they may seem at first. Even if we stipulate that *everyone* at BP is a complete idiot, which I highly doubt, even with that I imagine Obama has sent whatever smartest guys they can get from *wherever* national resources we have, in order to prevent being Katrina’d.

I’m sure they’re trying to be smart and fast, and it makes for gripping though sad viewing.

[KSMountain]

[quote=mike92104]I was wondering the same thing. I wondered if another blow out protector could be bolted in.[/quote]

This is being discussed at theoildrum.com, which I’ve been spending far too much time on after Arraya turned us on to it.

Folks there who claim to be knowledgable say the bolts were tightened to about 13000 ft-lbs on land, and that now underwater, if the lubrication has degraded (which it likely has), you typically need triple the torque to get ’em off.

Evidently tools of that capability that work in freezing water are not widely available. 🙂

Sawing the bolts off is an option. One person made the point though that one should not underestimate the flow. The flow is like 12000 PSI! Crazy. So you saw off a bolt or two, then you got these totally crazy oil jets hitting the robot, it’s gonna be kinda hard to get the other bolts out.

Basic point being, things are not as simple as they may seem at first. Even if we stipulate that *everyone* at BP is a complete idiot, which I highly doubt, even with that I imagine Obama has sent whatever smartest guys they can get from *wherever* national resources we have, in order to prevent being Katrina’d.

I’m sure they’re trying to be smart and fast, and it makes for gripping though sad viewing.

[KSMountain]

[quote=mike92104]I was wondering the same thing. I wondered if another blow out protector could be bolted in.[/quote]

This is being discussed at theoildrum.com, which I’ve been spending far too much time on after Arraya turned us on to it.

Folks there who claim to be knowledgable say the bolts were tightened to about 13000 ft-lbs on land, and that now underwater, if the lubrication has degraded (which it likely has), you typically need triple the torque to get ’em off.

Evidently tools of that capability that work in freezing water are not widely available. 🙂

Sawing the bolts off is an option. One person made the point though that one should not underestimate the flow. The flow is like 12000 PSI! Crazy. So you saw off a bolt or two, then you got these totally crazy oil jets hitting the robot, it’s gonna be kinda hard to get the other bolts out.

Basic point being, things are not as simple as they may seem at first. Even if we stipulate that *everyone* at BP is a complete idiot, which I highly doubt, even with that I imagine Obama has sent whatever smartest guys they can get from *wherever* national resources we have, in order to prevent being Katrina’d.

I’m sure they’re trying to be smart and fast, and it makes for gripping though sad viewing.

[KSMountain]

[quote=mike92104]I was wondering the same thing. I wondered if another blow out protector could be bolted in.[/quote]

This is being discussed at theoildrum.com, which I’ve been spending far too much time on after Arraya turned us on to it.

Folks there who claim to be knowledgable say the bolts were tightened to about 13000 ft-lbs on land, and that now underwater, if the lubrication has degraded (which it likely has), you typically need triple the torque to get ’em off.

Evidently tools of that capability that work in freezing water are not widely available. 🙂

Sawing the bolts off is an option. One person made the point though that one should not underestimate the flow. The flow is like 12000 PSI! Crazy. So you saw off a bolt or two, then you got these totally crazy oil jets hitting the robot, it’s gonna be kinda hard to get the other bolts out.

Basic point being, things are not as simple as they may seem at first. Even if we stipulate that *everyone* at BP is a complete idiot, which I highly doubt, even with that I imagine Obama has sent whatever smartest guys they can get from *wherever* national resources we have, in order to prevent being Katrina’d.

I’m sure they’re trying to be smart and fast, and it makes for gripping though sad viewing.

[KSMountain]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]BP falls another ~12% today. From 04/26/10 BP fell a lot, but so did other oil stocks. Comparing fall in BP to say fall in XOM, BP might have lost another
~ 48Billion in market cap so far.

If we assume worst case of 60-70 billion of liability (per the article in guardian), the stock needs to fall to at least ~25 before it moves into cheap territory (it is 37 today)
[/quote]

I mentioned using Exxon Valdez as an example. I believe up to now (20 years later) they STILL haven’t paid everything out. So I’m saying an estimate of the total bill at some long long future date maybe shouldn’t drive today’s market cap.

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]Of course, they can somehow fix the well tomorrow, and then today’s price is justified. Stock market is very efficient discounting machine in this case.[/quote]

I would imagine that if they fix the well tomorrow, there would be a huge relief rally in the stock, at least for a little while. Don’t you? Again though, that is basically just gambling, it is by no means “investing”.

[KSMountain]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]BP falls another ~12% today. From 04/26/10 BP fell a lot, but so did other oil stocks. Comparing fall in BP to say fall in XOM, BP might have lost another
~ 48Billion in market cap so far.

If we assume worst case of 60-70 billion of liability (per the article in guardian), the stock needs to fall to at least ~25 before it moves into cheap territory (it is 37 today)
[/quote]

I mentioned using Exxon Valdez as an example. I believe up to now (20 years later) they STILL haven’t paid everything out. So I’m saying an estimate of the total bill at some long long future date maybe shouldn’t drive today’s market cap.

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]Of course, they can somehow fix the well tomorrow, and then today’s price is justified. Stock market is very efficient discounting machine in this case.[/quote]

I would imagine that if they fix the well tomorrow, there would be a huge relief rally in the stock, at least for a little while. Don’t you? Again though, that is basically just gambling, it is by no means “investing”.

[KSMountain]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]BP falls another ~12% today. From 04/26/10 BP fell a lot, but so did other oil stocks. Comparing fall in BP to say fall in XOM, BP might have lost another
~ 48Billion in market cap so far.

If we assume worst case of 60-70 billion of liability (per the article in guardian), the stock needs to fall to at least ~25 before it moves into cheap territory (it is 37 today)
[/quote]

I mentioned using Exxon Valdez as an example. I believe up to now (20 years later) they STILL haven’t paid everything out. So I’m saying an estimate of the total bill at some long long future date maybe shouldn’t drive today’s market cap.

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]Of course, they can somehow fix the well tomorrow, and then today’s price is justified. Stock market is very efficient discounting machine in this case.[/quote]

I would imagine that if they fix the well tomorrow, there would be a huge relief rally in the stock, at least for a little while. Don’t you? Again though, that is basically just gambling, it is by no means “investing”.

[KSMountain]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]BP falls another ~12% today. From 04/26/10 BP fell a lot, but so did other oil stocks. Comparing fall in BP to say fall in XOM, BP might have lost another
~ 48Billion in market cap so far.

If we assume worst case of 60-70 billion of liability (per the article in guardian), the stock needs to fall to at least ~25 before it moves into cheap territory (it is 37 today)
[/quote]

I mentioned using Exxon Valdez as an example. I believe up to now (20 years later) they STILL haven’t paid everything out. So I’m saying an estimate of the total bill at some long long future date maybe shouldn’t drive today’s market cap.

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]Of course, they can somehow fix the well tomorrow, and then today’s price is justified. Stock market is very efficient discounting machine in this case.[/quote]

I would imagine that if they fix the well tomorrow, there would be a huge relief rally in the stock, at least for a little while. Don’t you? Again though, that is basically just gambling, it is by no means “investing”.

[KSMountain]

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]BP falls another ~12% today. From 04/26/10 BP fell a lot, but so did other oil stocks. Comparing fall in BP to say fall in XOM, BP might have lost another
~ 48Billion in market cap so far.

If we assume worst case of 60-70 billion of liability (per the article in guardian), the stock needs to fall to at least ~25 before it moves into cheap territory (it is 37 today)
[/quote]

I mentioned using Exxon Valdez as an example. I believe up to now (20 years later) they STILL haven’t paid everything out. So I’m saying an estimate of the total bill at some long long future date maybe shouldn’t drive today’s market cap.

[quote=enron_by_the_sea]Of course, they can somehow fix the well tomorrow, and then today’s price is justified. Stock market is very efficient discounting machine in this case.[/quote]

I would imagine that if they fix the well tomorrow, there would be a huge relief rally in the stock, at least for a little while. Don’t you? Again though, that is basically just gambling, it is by no means “investing”.

[KSMountain]

BP (per original post) might be a good choice.

I read their market cap is down $50B since the accident. Might that be overdone?

Certainly the cleanup will be very expensive, but taking Exxon Valdez as an example, how long might it be before the total forked over by BP is $50B? Never?

If one of the fixes works in the next few days, might their valuation come way up?

Not a bad trading (not “investing”) idea it seems to me…

[KSMountain]

BP (per original post) might be a good choice.

I read their market cap is down $50B since the accident. Might that be overdone?

Certainly the cleanup will be very expensive, but taking Exxon Valdez as an example, how long might it be before the total forked over by BP is $50B? Never?

If one of the fixes works in the next few days, might their valuation come way up?

Not a bad trading (not “investing”) idea it seems to me…

[KSMountain]

BP (per original post) might be a good choice.

I read their market cap is down $50B since the accident. Might that be overdone?

Certainly the cleanup will be very expensive, but taking Exxon Valdez as an example, how long might it be before the total forked over by BP is $50B? Never?

If one of the fixes works in the next few days, might their valuation come way up?

Not a bad trading (not “investing”) idea it seems to me…

[Author]

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