[kewp]

They aren’t making any more buyers, so the price is going to *have* to come down if folks (really, banks) want to get rid of properties.

Last year I had a gut feeling things would over-correct; I’m almost certain now.

[kewp]

They aren’t making any more buyers, so the price is going to *have* to come down if folks (really, banks) want to get rid of properties.

Last year I had a gut feeling things would over-correct; I’m almost certain now.

[kewp]

Don’t bother, now that the MBS game is over San Diego RE is deader than a doornail. Especially the less desirable parts. Everyone will figure this out eventually.

Who the hell is going to swoop in and buy a SFR with cash in Santucky?

[kewp]

Don’t bother, now that the MBS game is over San Diego RE is deader than a doornail. Especially the less desirable parts. Everyone will figure this out eventually.

Who the hell is going to swoop in and buy a SFR with cash in Santucky?

[kewp]

Don’t bother, now that the MBS game is over San Diego RE is deader than a doornail. Especially the less desirable parts. Everyone will figure this out eventually.

Who the hell is going to swoop in and buy a SFR with cash in Santucky?

[kewp]

I’ll also suggest another biggie is whats going to happen to all the 401k’s and pensions of retiree’s. My dad already got dinged by his Lucent retirement package (cut healthcare benefits), so it wouldn’t surprise me if it turns out the pension manager went long on the MBS’ market and he gets dinged again.

If this happens to enough folks with a market turning sour we can expect a run on 401k’s next.

[kewp]

I’ll also suggest another biggie is whats going to happen to all the 401k’s and pensions of retiree’s. My dad already got dinged by his Lucent retirement package (cut healthcare benefits), so it wouldn’t surprise me if it turns out the pension manager went long on the MBS’ market and he gets dinged again.

If this happens to enough folks with a market turning sour we can expect a run on 401k’s next.

[kewp]

Would any from the ‘total credit collapse’ camp care to go on the record with some predicted S&P 500 index values for 1 week, 1 month, 6 months and 1 year.

That’s a suckers wager any way you cut it. This mess has been a decade in the making and who knows how long it will take to unwind. You’ll get better odds in Vegas.

I’m in “there is big risk of a large credit collapse” camp and the most I’ll offer is that we should have a good idea of the extent of the damage by the end of next year. By then the worst of the ARM-bombs will have gone off and lending standards should be tightened up.

The big question is, can our economy survive a national real-estate slump intact?

[kewp]

Would any from the ‘total credit collapse’ camp care to go on the record with some predicted S&P 500 index values for 1 week, 1 month, 6 months and 1 year.

That’s a suckers wager any way you cut it. This mess has been a decade in the making and who knows how long it will take to unwind. You’ll get better odds in Vegas.

I’m in “there is big risk of a large credit collapse” camp and the most I’ll offer is that we should have a good idea of the extent of the damage by the end of next year. By then the worst of the ARM-bombs will have gone off and lending standards should be tightened up.

The big question is, can our economy survive a national real-estate slump intact?

[kewp]

Let’s be realistic, you can throw away all the formulas and models right now. We are in the midst of an unprecedented institutional crash in the lending and housing industries.

I’ll have to concur.

I value CS’s contributions, but his overall tone and demeanor really reminds me all the the tech ‘entrepreneurs’ I knew back in my dot-bomb heydays. When people are willing to spray free money at you from a fire hose, it doesn’t really matter what your formulas, models or business plan is. You are gonna look like a genius in the short term.

Once that spigot is turned off, however, its a different story.

[kewp]

Let’s be realistic, you can throw away all the formulas and models right now. We are in the midst of an unprecedented institutional crash in the lending and housing industries.

I’ll have to concur.

I value CS’s contributions, but his overall tone and demeanor really reminds me all the the tech ‘entrepreneurs’ I knew back in my dot-bomb heydays. When people are willing to spray free money at you from a fire hose, it doesn’t really matter what your formulas, models or business plan is. You are gonna look like a genius in the short term.

Once that spigot is turned off, however, its a different story.

[kewp]

My indicator used to be foreclosures, once these have trended down and stabilized I figure that would be a good time to buy in.

I’ve since noticed that the banks are holding onto their REO’s instead of selling them, so thats floating the market in lots of places. If I can find somewhere that lists what % of each zip code is bank owned, I’ll watch that. And again, once its trended down and stabilized, I’ll buy in.

Anyone know where I can find this info?

[kewp]

My indicator used to be foreclosures, once these have trended down and stabilized I figure that would be a good time to buy in.

I’ve since noticed that the banks are holding onto their REO’s instead of selling them, so thats floating the market in lots of places. If I can find somewhere that lists what % of each zip code is bank owned, I’ll watch that. And again, once its trended down and stabilized, I’ll buy in.

Anyone know where I can find this info?

[kewp]

Seems they have a follow up video just to prove he wasn’t being sarcastic

The video is gone, maybe the NAR gestapo got to it first?

I don’t think he was being sarcastic, especially given that he’s claimed to unload all of his RE holdings. I’ve also said myself that ‘tossing the keys’ is gonna be the new black in 2009.

Cramer is a bit of a tool and has history of really, really bad predictions, so if anything his opinion might be considered ammo for the RE bull’s camp in some circles.

[kewp]

Seems they have a follow up video just to prove he wasn’t being sarcastic

The video is gone, maybe the NAR gestapo got to it first?

I don’t think he was being sarcastic, especially given that he’s claimed to unload all of his RE holdings. I’ve also said myself that ‘tossing the keys’ is gonna be the new black in 2009.

Cramer is a bit of a tool and has history of really, really bad predictions, so if anything his opinion might be considered ammo for the RE bull’s camp in some circles.

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