Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
JWM in SD
ParticipantJWM in SD
Simple Rustico, because the disparity between the house price growth and income growth is too severe in the bubble regions. Second, history has shown what happens in credit driven asset bubbles: Deflation. That is what happened in the Great Depression. We will not have a Weimer style hyperinflation here with the use of printing presses. Once asset values get beyond the ablility of the borrowers to service the related debt, then the assets value comes into question and becomes impaired. The assets pledged are no longer worth what they once were and the loans backing them become suspect. Credit tightens severely and lending institions don’t trust each other because they don’t know who is insolvent and who isn’t. The Fed can loosen rates all it wants, but liquidity will not help and insolvency problem at either the homedebtor level or the institutional level.
Hence, pushing on a string.
ParticipantJWM in SD
Simple Rustico, because the disparity between the house price growth and income growth is too severe in the bubble regions. Second, history has shown what happens in credit driven asset bubbles: Deflation. That is what happened in the Great Depression. We will not have a Weimer style hyperinflation here with the use of printing presses. Once asset values get beyond the ablility of the borrowers to service the related debt, then the assets value comes into question and becomes impaired. The assets pledged are no longer worth what they once were and the loans backing them become suspect. Credit tightens severely and lending institions don’t trust each other because they don’t know who is insolvent and who isn’t. The Fed can loosen rates all it wants, but liquidity will not help and insolvency problem at either the homedebtor level or the institutional level.
Hence, pushing on a string.
ParticipantJWM in SD
Simple Rustico, because the disparity between the house price growth and income growth is too severe in the bubble regions. Second, history has shown what happens in credit driven asset bubbles: Deflation. That is what happened in the Great Depression. We will not have a Weimer style hyperinflation here with the use of printing presses. Once asset values get beyond the ablility of the borrowers to service the related debt, then the assets value comes into question and becomes impaired. The assets pledged are no longer worth what they once were and the loans backing them become suspect. Credit tightens severely and lending institions don’t trust each other because they don’t know who is insolvent and who isn’t. The Fed can loosen rates all it wants, but liquidity will not help and insolvency problem at either the homedebtor level or the institutional level.
Hence, pushing on a string.
ParticipantJWM in SD
Simple Rustico, because the disparity between the house price growth and income growth is too severe in the bubble regions. Second, history has shown what happens in credit driven asset bubbles: Deflation. That is what happened in the Great Depression. We will not have a Weimer style hyperinflation here with the use of printing presses. Once asset values get beyond the ablility of the borrowers to service the related debt, then the assets value comes into question and becomes impaired. The assets pledged are no longer worth what they once were and the loans backing them become suspect. Credit tightens severely and lending institions don’t trust each other because they don’t know who is insolvent and who isn’t. The Fed can loosen rates all it wants, but liquidity will not help and insolvency problem at either the homedebtor level or the institutional level.
Hence, pushing on a string.
ParticipantJWM in SD
Simple Rustico, because the disparity between the house price growth and income growth is too severe in the bubble regions. Second, history has shown what happens in credit driven asset bubbles: Deflation. That is what happened in the Great Depression. We will not have a Weimer style hyperinflation here with the use of printing presses. Once asset values get beyond the ablility of the borrowers to service the related debt, then the assets value comes into question and becomes impaired. The assets pledged are no longer worth what they once were and the loans backing them become suspect. Credit tightens severely and lending institions don’t trust each other because they don’t know who is insolvent and who isn’t. The Fed can loosen rates all it wants, but liquidity will not help and insolvency problem at either the homedebtor level or the institutional level.
Hence, pushing on a string.
December 20, 2007 at 8:10 AM in reply to: The often asked question, when will housing bottom? #121308ParticipantJWM in SD
“This time, the peak was 2006 for OC, perhaps 2005 for SD, so maybe 2012-2013 is a reasonable guess.”
It’s plausible.
December 20, 2007 at 8:10 AM in reply to: The often asked question, when will housing bottom? #121451ParticipantJWM in SD
“This time, the peak was 2006 for OC, perhaps 2005 for SD, so maybe 2012-2013 is a reasonable guess.”
It’s plausible.
December 20, 2007 at 8:10 AM in reply to: The often asked question, when will housing bottom? #121477ParticipantJWM in SD
“This time, the peak was 2006 for OC, perhaps 2005 for SD, so maybe 2012-2013 is a reasonable guess.”
It’s plausible.
December 20, 2007 at 8:10 AM in reply to: The often asked question, when will housing bottom? #121529ParticipantJWM in SD
“This time, the peak was 2006 for OC, perhaps 2005 for SD, so maybe 2012-2013 is a reasonable guess.”
It’s plausible.
December 20, 2007 at 8:10 AM in reply to: The often asked question, when will housing bottom? #121550ParticipantJWM in SD
“This time, the peak was 2006 for OC, perhaps 2005 for SD, so maybe 2012-2013 is a reasonable guess.”
It’s plausible.
Participant“By the time this is over, if it takes 3 years for houses to hit bottom, hyperinflation could potentially bring the fundamentals up considerably. I’m trying to make the point that a loan denominated in dolars might be good to have. ”
OMFG, you really don’t get it do you??? One more time for the slow-witted ones here. THE HYPERINFLATION IN ASSETS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED!!!!!Go find a graph of M3 and SoCal median house prices over the past five years and look at the correlation.
INFLATION WILL NOT SAVE YOUR OVERPRICED SAN DIEGO HOUSE OR CONDO.
Participant“By the time this is over, if it takes 3 years for houses to hit bottom, hyperinflation could potentially bring the fundamentals up considerably. I’m trying to make the point that a loan denominated in dolars might be good to have. ”
OMFG, you really don’t get it do you??? One more time for the slow-witted ones here. THE HYPERINFLATION IN ASSETS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED!!!!!Go find a graph of M3 and SoCal median house prices over the past five years and look at the correlation.
INFLATION WILL NOT SAVE YOUR OVERPRICED SAN DIEGO HOUSE OR CONDO.
Participant“By the time this is over, if it takes 3 years for houses to hit bottom, hyperinflation could potentially bring the fundamentals up considerably. I’m trying to make the point that a loan denominated in dolars might be good to have. ”
OMFG, you really don’t get it do you??? One more time for the slow-witted ones here. THE HYPERINFLATION IN ASSETS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED!!!!!Go find a graph of M3 and SoCal median house prices over the past five years and look at the correlation.
INFLATION WILL NOT SAVE YOUR OVERPRICED SAN DIEGO HOUSE OR CONDO.
Participant“By the time this is over, if it takes 3 years for houses to hit bottom, hyperinflation could potentially bring the fundamentals up considerably. I’m trying to make the point that a loan denominated in dolars might be good to have. ”
OMFG, you really don’t get it do you??? One more time for the slow-witted ones here. THE HYPERINFLATION IN ASSETS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED!!!!!Go find a graph of M3 and SoCal median house prices over the past five years and look at the correlation.
INFLATION WILL NOT SAVE YOUR OVERPRICED SAN DIEGO HOUSE OR CONDO.
-
AuthorPosts
