[JWM in SD]

“I know people who bought at the peak of the last market, never checked in with the RE market again and still living in the same house they bought 18 years ago and have it almost paid off.”

I don’t care about people who bought 18 years ago.

“To some, it’s more important to have permanent home to raise a family than saving a few thousands.”

More like a few 100 thousand.

Have you not been paying attention?

[JWM in SD]

“I reached an agreement, not to buy now, but to buy in November and no later than that, not a condo, but a house we’ll like and live for a decade.”

November?? That’s less than eight weeks away. You might as well buy now.

Not a good move my friend…you will regret this years from now and worse still is that your wife will blame YOU for it…for not standing up to her when it was needed.

[JWM in SD]

“Who says we need 100% raises overnight? In a hyperflation scenario played out over 4 to 5 years, wages could increases 5 to 10% per year and it would go a long way toward rebalancing if accompanied by modest declines.”

Jobs will still end up being outsourced. I also have a feeling that foreign investors in US Treasuries might not like that very much and interest rates would go up to compensate for it so affordability will still not be had that way. Face it, credit is going to contract and inflated assets along with it because their valuations are not justified by incomes unless you want to bring about true hyperinflation of hard money (not M3). That results in a fundamental political change in which case all else is irrelevant anyway.

Did I not already explain what happened in Weimar Germany prior to WWII???

[JWM in SD]

No Rustico, that can only happen if inflation makes its way into wages. That is the key and will not happen unless you really believe that we will all get a 100% raise virtually overnight. I assert that your job will be quickly outsourced if it suddenly requires that you need twice the salary to meet living expenses.

This is called pushing on a string because the Fed cannot control where the excess liquidity will go.

Deflation is where we are headed. The hyperinflation in a sense has already happened in the form of M3 credit resulting in the .com and RE bubbles.

[JWM in SD]

“Huh? The substitute for a CV house is not a 29 Palms house. That is silly. The substitute for a CV house is a CV rental.”

You’re being too mirco / myopic about this. What Bugs is saying at least in my mind, is that the there is an overlap of competing price neighborhoods relative to the acceptable geographic locations of the finite set of buyers. Think of it like a venn diagram (overlapping circles) in which these neighborhoods reside and the chain of them could conceivable extend from SD to the Moreno Valley. Would an individual buyer who is considering CV consider Moreno Valley? No, but within a finite set of qualified buyers that spans that geographic chaing of overlapping areas the answer is yes.

I work in the real SD world where 100K plus salaried jobs are not as easy to get as a lot of people here seem to think they are. Over the past 3 years of working here in Socal, I’ve known many who commute in from Murrieta and even Perris. It sucks but they do it.

[JWM in SD]

“They should move out and go find a rental just like everyone else.”

Agreed.

[JWM in SD]

From Diane Wednar to me circa June 2006:

from “Wedner, Diane” hide details 6/5/06
to
date Jun 5, 2006 12:18 PM
subject RE: Purchased any Resisdential Real Estate Lately??
mailed-by latimes.com

Mr. Moss,

Thank you for your obviously strongly felt letter. I’m afraid you’re mistaken on all accounts, though. I wouldn’t publish census statistics without spending hours poring over them, which I did, of course. With the Times’ key census tracker. There are, indeed, more Southern California residents leaving the area for other states than are coming in from other states. And I mention that clearly in the story. But the number of births, compared with deaths, has added significantly to our ranks, as well as international immigration (they’re not all “from the south of the border,” either, as it turns out). Our population is growing, not shrinking. And I compare statistics in the story from 2000, not “the last couple of years.”

I stand firmly by my story and its findings, which were well-researched and triple-sourced, as always.

Sincerely,
Diane Wedner

What a difference a year makes. 🙂

[JWM in SD]

Core,

Stop spamming this site. You will not find what you are looking for here…sympathy or empathy for that matter.

This is not going to help get your money back.

[JWM in SD]

“401k. So this is were I would go and say that a properly diversified portfolio shouldn’t have an issue if part of your investment choices get wiped out.”

Methinks you don’t understand how leverage works. It won’t matter if your fund is diversified if they don’t allow you to pull your money, it is already gone.

[JWM in SD]

Oh really FSU? Well, how about this from the International Herald Tribune:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/02/business/morgenson.php?page=1

“Ronald Greene, 79, a retiree in Northern California, is one investor watching the Bear Stearns case closely. Greene lost $280,000 in the Bear Stearns High Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund and says he will join a suit that has been filed against the firm. He contends that Bear Stearns duped him with assurances that the fund’s high-quality investments would protect holders against market and credit risks.

Hedge funds are theoretically open only to institutional investors and extremely wealthy individuals, who are deemed savvy and well heeled enough to assess and weather complex risks. But documents from Greene’s files show that Bear Stearns Asset Management allowed investments of $250,000 in its fund, considerably smaller than the typical $1 million minimum for many hedge funds.

On July 20, 2005, Greene received an e-mail message from his broker at a small regional firm, with the following header: “Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund will accept smaller investments this month on a limited basis.” Noting that the fund was temporarily reopening on Aug. 1, 2005, the message said that for investors who “do not have $1,000,000 to invest, the fund will accept a limited number of clients this month for 500K and perhaps 250K.”

[JWM in SD]

“So you can get out of La Mesa?”

So you would need to buy in order to do that??? Don’t be a freaking moron.

[JWM in SD]

Wow, not bad greekfire

[JWM in SD]

Personally, I don’t really even care about housing prices anymore…that is an after-thought best left to the back of my mind at least until after I have ensured relative financial survival over the next several years.

Housing prices are going to go down a lot in Socal over the next several years…that is all I need to know. I don’t care about exact timeframes or what the nominal decline %’s are. This is why I don’t suffer fools very well who insist on coming here asking about how much to offer right now for 4S Ranch SFH or whining about why Carmel Valley homes have not declined enough yet.

The visual / saying that comes to mind is: Picking up dimes in front of a moving steam roller.

[JWM in SD]

“Advocating that the man get a divorce.”

Don’t put words in my mouth Raybyrnes. I did not advocate that he get divorced you idiot. Sharpen up your reading comprehension a little there.

“God didn’t I hear you crying about that some time ago.”

Ummm, not that I recall unless you can find the post.

[JWM in SD]

“Rents are going up in SD. So it could end up saving you money over the next couple of years. That is if you say it is a net sum move for you.

If you have the flow and can stay in the house/condo long enough, the price decline now will not mean much to you other than maybe a few grand that you could have saved by purchasing it for a few thousand less.

Inflation is going to spring up all over the place with the Feds lower rates. That inflation will likely cover any down side to a possible price reduction.

Really, it doesn’t matter. it just money that isn’t even yours. The bank owns it until you re-fi or pay it off.”

aHAHAHAHAHHA…..AHAHAHAHHAH

I really hope that this is tongue in cheek advice.

[Author]

Posts