[JJGittes]

I think I know the ones you are talking about. (Isn’t there another 4 doors or so down for $799k thats been sitting for a year –serioulsy, a year– on the market?) Your guess is as good as mine as far as the tactic. But I can’t imagine the it will work since even ZIP realty’s site shows the price history, which looks exactly how it is….divorced from reality. Note to the agent and sellers of these and similar houses: if you want to sell you should immediately lop $75k off the prices, and be prepared to negotiate down from there. The mojo in SD HAS changed….and buyers smell blood in the water, as they should.

[JJGittes]

I-5 roar for a mill?

[JJGittes]

Well, I think the buyers are on the road to winning this standoff. I just saw that three new homes in Bressi popped up on the MLS. Apparently, buyers are not being enticed by these beautiful new homes, complete with thousands of $ of mello roos, and over $200 per month HOA fees.

[JJGittes]

Lostkitty,

Which sdrealtor post are you referring to? The ones above in this thread by sdrealtor I don’t see anything wrong with. Heck, sdrealtor is one of the very few realtors I have come across that has actually acknowledged the change in the market (sentiment and inventory) and the likelihood of price declines.

On that point, last weekend I had a listing agent on a house I was looking at tell me that the SD market was “really active” and I better submit an offer real quick on her listing, or risk not getting it. Only problem was, the house had been on the market more than 60 days and as of today, still is. If she had sounded more like sdrealtor, or at least not blown smoke, I would have had a lot more respect for her. As it was, I just wanted to get away from her.

[JJGittes]

You ain’t kidding about top dollar still being expected. It is getting kind of pathetic now that SD county inventory is approaching 22k.

I looked at a two resales in SEJ about a week ago. Coincidentally, the seller’s agents on both “had just received offers.” (Both houses had been on the market for over 2 months.) I just smiled, looked at the houses, and wished them luck. The house were just fine…. like about 5000 others that have been built in Carlsbad and SW San Marcos over the last 4 years. Funny though, when I just looked them up a few minutes ago on realtor.com, they both are still up for sale. Alas, it seems neither offer panned out. Who woulda thought?

[JJGittes]

I drove by Tara Way property. I don’t think it will sell at $799. There are homes in the gated areas of SEH not selling at that price point. Some of them even have canyon views with no back neighbors. Overall, I think there is still $100k of froth in that market in the process of evaporating off.

Also, the guy at the welcome center in SEH said 1000 more sfh’s are set to be built in there. There are also seveal new neighborhoods “selling” right now.

I think there will be very good deals in SEH and its cousin, 4S, over the next couple of years.

[JJGittes]

I was stopped at a traffic light in front of SM High a while back just as school was letting out. I locked my door.

[JJGittes]

I don’t know where the line is, but Bressi (next to RC) is in the Carlsbad School district. That said, at least based on the API scores, Rancho Carrillo Elem. (in the SM district) is very good. The middle school in San Elijo I bet will also be good. High School though,…. I just don’t know about SM High. But frankly, all public high schools scare me. And Carlsbad High’s scores are not that great. Poway seems to have good high schools across the board though. see greatschools.net or http://www.nctimes.com/standing/schools/2005base.txt

[JJGittes]

I went to 4 open houses in RC a couple of weeks ago. The agents were practically begging for an offer, ‘any offer’, on 3 of the 4 homes I went in. The 4th was staffed by a non-interested college kid “associate”. I am honestly not exagerrating. By the way, if you want to see some dancing, go out there this sunday for the weekly show and start asking how long the houses have been on the market. But be sure to ask the follow up question of whether they have been relisted at a lower price. You’ll feel like you are have a Perry Mason moment with just two questions.

[JJGittes]

If so, this decline could mirror the last one in terms of the % decline. i.e. about a 5-6 year slump with prices declining 15%, along with inflation taking up the remainder of the slack. Not pretty, and it probably will be much worse in outlying areas, but it is not doomsday either.

[JJGittes]

From what I have seen, 4S and San Elijo Hills are the east/west sides of the same coin.

[JJGittes]

I believe they peaked in spring ’05, with the closings taking place in summer ’05. I base my opinion on homes in my neighborhood in 92011 that I watched closely. However, it is very a small sampling admittedly.

[JJGittes]

There were 3 sales in Rancho Dorado (San Marcos 92078, on Sun Valley and White Sands) in the last month or so. Anybody know if they closed, and what the pricing history was on them? Another one in there that closed a couple of months ago was analyzed elsewhere on this site recently. I am wondering how these three did.

[JJGittes]

Will be interesting to see if it actually does sell at a $44k discount. Also, not good for the others on the street regardless. I just posted in another thread about all the resales in SEH I saw yesterday when I was in the area. No shortage of inventory, new and reasle, in there.

[JJGittes]

I had the opportunity to drive through San Elijo Hills yesterday. Lots of homes for (re)sale in the various neighborhoods. Lots of new ones coming on line too. I can’t imagine prices increasing there for some time. If you go to the top of the hill, it looks like an absolute sea of new housing of all kinds.

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