[jficquette]

[quote=LA_Renter][quote=hipmatt]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062604030.html

So much for that second-half rebound.

Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.

It ain’t gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
[/quote]

That has been my sentiment through the entire first half of this year. These bear market rallies are becoming comical. I have to admit I enjoy watching CNBC on these big downward movements just to see the expression of the permabull pollyannas..(you mean there really isn’t a Santa Clause…Oh NO!). We have just witnessed one of the largest financial bubbles in the history of the markets…..POP! What do you think the correction is going to look like??
[/quote]

That is one reason the Vix is so low. People have been burned shorting this market and are thinking its just another sell off that will be followed by a rally that will last.

Rather then “slow motion recession” it would be more accurate to term it a “slow motion train wreck”

John

[jficquette]

[quote=LA_Renter][quote=hipmatt]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062604030.html

So much for that second-half rebound.

Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.

It ain’t gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
[/quote]

That has been my sentiment through the entire first half of this year. These bear market rallies are becoming comical. I have to admit I enjoy watching CNBC on these big downward movements just to see the expression of the permabull pollyannas..(you mean there really isn’t a Santa Clause…Oh NO!). We have just witnessed one of the largest financial bubbles in the history of the markets…..POP! What do you think the correction is going to look like??
[/quote]

That is one reason the Vix is so low. People have been burned shorting this market and are thinking its just another sell off that will be followed by a rally that will last.

Rather then “slow motion recession” it would be more accurate to term it a “slow motion train wreck”

John

[jficquette]

[quote=LA_Renter][quote=hipmatt]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062604030.html

So much for that second-half rebound.

Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.

It ain’t gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
[/quote]

That has been my sentiment through the entire first half of this year. These bear market rallies are becoming comical. I have to admit I enjoy watching CNBC on these big downward movements just to see the expression of the permabull pollyannas..(you mean there really isn’t a Santa Clause…Oh NO!). We have just witnessed one of the largest financial bubbles in the history of the markets…..POP! What do you think the correction is going to look like??
[/quote]

That is one reason the Vix is so low. People have been burned shorting this market and are thinking its just another sell off that will be followed by a rally that will last.

Rather then “slow motion recession” it would be more accurate to term it a “slow motion train wreck”

John

[jficquette]

[quote=LA_Renter][quote=hipmatt]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062604030.html

So much for that second-half rebound.

Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.

It ain’t gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
[/quote]

That has been my sentiment through the entire first half of this year. These bear market rallies are becoming comical. I have to admit I enjoy watching CNBC on these big downward movements just to see the expression of the permabull pollyannas..(you mean there really isn’t a Santa Clause…Oh NO!). We have just witnessed one of the largest financial bubbles in the history of the markets…..POP! What do you think the correction is going to look like??
[/quote]

That is one reason the Vix is so low. People have been burned shorting this market and are thinking its just another sell off that will be followed by a rally that will last.

Rather then “slow motion recession” it would be more accurate to term it a “slow motion train wreck”

John

[jficquette]

[quote=LA_Renter][quote=hipmatt]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062604030.html

So much for that second-half rebound.

Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.

It ain’t gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
[/quote]

That has been my sentiment through the entire first half of this year. These bear market rallies are becoming comical. I have to admit I enjoy watching CNBC on these big downward movements just to see the expression of the permabull pollyannas..(you mean there really isn’t a Santa Clause…Oh NO!). We have just witnessed one of the largest financial bubbles in the history of the markets…..POP! What do you think the correction is going to look like??
[/quote]

That is one reason the Vix is so low. People have been burned shorting this market and are thinking its just another sell off that will be followed by a rally that will last.

Rather then “slow motion recession” it would be more accurate to term it a “slow motion train wreck”

John

[jficquette]

[quote=afx114]If we want to talk about fairness in taxes, we should also look at how the smaller states receive way more benefits from the federal taxes than they put in. California, New York, etc, are paying the lions share of taxes, with a big majority of those funds going towards smaller states. All of the people in small states calling for lower taxes should realize that they’re not even paying their fair share to begin with.[/quote]

I agree. Our system is gradually becoming one founded on redistribution of wealth which is not the way our system was designed to operate.

[jficquette]

[quote=afx114]If we want to talk about fairness in taxes, we should also look at how the smaller states receive way more benefits from the federal taxes than they put in. California, New York, etc, are paying the lions share of taxes, with a big majority of those funds going towards smaller states. All of the people in small states calling for lower taxes should realize that they’re not even paying their fair share to begin with.[/quote]

I agree. Our system is gradually becoming one founded on redistribution of wealth which is not the way our system was designed to operate.

[jficquette]

[quote=afx114]If we want to talk about fairness in taxes, we should also look at how the smaller states receive way more benefits from the federal taxes than they put in. California, New York, etc, are paying the lions share of taxes, with a big majority of those funds going towards smaller states. All of the people in small states calling for lower taxes should realize that they’re not even paying their fair share to begin with.[/quote]

I agree. Our system is gradually becoming one founded on redistribution of wealth which is not the way our system was designed to operate.

[jficquette]

[quote=afx114]If we want to talk about fairness in taxes, we should also look at how the smaller states receive way more benefits from the federal taxes than they put in. California, New York, etc, are paying the lions share of taxes, with a big majority of those funds going towards smaller states. All of the people in small states calling for lower taxes should realize that they’re not even paying their fair share to begin with.[/quote]

I agree. Our system is gradually becoming one founded on redistribution of wealth which is not the way our system was designed to operate.

[jficquette]

[quote=afx114]If we want to talk about fairness in taxes, we should also look at how the smaller states receive way more benefits from the federal taxes than they put in. California, New York, etc, are paying the lions share of taxes, with a big majority of those funds going towards smaller states. All of the people in small states calling for lower taxes should realize that they’re not even paying their fair share to begin with.[/quote]

I agree. Our system is gradually becoming one founded on redistribution of wealth which is not the way our system was designed to operate.

[jficquette]

[quote=equalizer]For very risky bet on falling oil try the airlines. Small drop in oil will easily double the prices. Cautious investors like Stuart Schweitzer of JPMorgan Private Bank have started buying distressed debt, companies that wont go under like (my guess) GM or WAMU.

stockstrdt: What factors convinced you to go short, technical ones? The VIX is not surging (only in the low 20’s as opposed to midthirties back on black Stearns day) which is typically very bad for bulls. The 50 day EMA and 200EMA last crossed earlier this year and this is also bearish. With the dow and S&P 500 near strong resistance at 20% off peak, we are near crucial junction. We could get slow painful decline aka 2001-2002 or my prediction that 90% odds in pres election years the market will rally from July-Oct. The party in charge is going to sit idly by and watch economy, market just slide down without putting all stops to help their party?

[/quote]

The low vix is what scares me. The market is almost parabolic in its downtrend yet there is no fear. Downtrends like this don’t end until fear comes in.

I believe the lack of fear in such a strong downtrend is odd and my guess is that when fear comes into play we will see some big down days as soon as the S&P takes out 1250. Circuit breaker type days. Then we will see the vix in the 30’s or 40’s.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=equalizer]For very risky bet on falling oil try the airlines. Small drop in oil will easily double the prices. Cautious investors like Stuart Schweitzer of JPMorgan Private Bank have started buying distressed debt, companies that wont go under like (my guess) GM or WAMU.

stockstrdt: What factors convinced you to go short, technical ones? The VIX is not surging (only in the low 20’s as opposed to midthirties back on black Stearns day) which is typically very bad for bulls. The 50 day EMA and 200EMA last crossed earlier this year and this is also bearish. With the dow and S&P 500 near strong resistance at 20% off peak, we are near crucial junction. We could get slow painful decline aka 2001-2002 or my prediction that 90% odds in pres election years the market will rally from July-Oct. The party in charge is going to sit idly by and watch economy, market just slide down without putting all stops to help their party?

[/quote]

The low vix is what scares me. The market is almost parabolic in its downtrend yet there is no fear. Downtrends like this don’t end until fear comes in.

I believe the lack of fear in such a strong downtrend is odd and my guess is that when fear comes into play we will see some big down days as soon as the S&P takes out 1250. Circuit breaker type days. Then we will see the vix in the 30’s or 40’s.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=equalizer]For very risky bet on falling oil try the airlines. Small drop in oil will easily double the prices. Cautious investors like Stuart Schweitzer of JPMorgan Private Bank have started buying distressed debt, companies that wont go under like (my guess) GM or WAMU.

stockstrdt: What factors convinced you to go short, technical ones? The VIX is not surging (only in the low 20’s as opposed to midthirties back on black Stearns day) which is typically very bad for bulls. The 50 day EMA and 200EMA last crossed earlier this year and this is also bearish. With the dow and S&P 500 near strong resistance at 20% off peak, we are near crucial junction. We could get slow painful decline aka 2001-2002 or my prediction that 90% odds in pres election years the market will rally from July-Oct. The party in charge is going to sit idly by and watch economy, market just slide down without putting all stops to help their party?

[/quote]

The low vix is what scares me. The market is almost parabolic in its downtrend yet there is no fear. Downtrends like this don’t end until fear comes in.

I believe the lack of fear in such a strong downtrend is odd and my guess is that when fear comes into play we will see some big down days as soon as the S&P takes out 1250. Circuit breaker type days. Then we will see the vix in the 30’s or 40’s.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=equalizer]For very risky bet on falling oil try the airlines. Small drop in oil will easily double the prices. Cautious investors like Stuart Schweitzer of JPMorgan Private Bank have started buying distressed debt, companies that wont go under like (my guess) GM or WAMU.

stockstrdt: What factors convinced you to go short, technical ones? The VIX is not surging (only in the low 20’s as opposed to midthirties back on black Stearns day) which is typically very bad for bulls. The 50 day EMA and 200EMA last crossed earlier this year and this is also bearish. With the dow and S&P 500 near strong resistance at 20% off peak, we are near crucial junction. We could get slow painful decline aka 2001-2002 or my prediction that 90% odds in pres election years the market will rally from July-Oct. The party in charge is going to sit idly by and watch economy, market just slide down without putting all stops to help their party?

[/quote]

The low vix is what scares me. The market is almost parabolic in its downtrend yet there is no fear. Downtrends like this don’t end until fear comes in.

I believe the lack of fear in such a strong downtrend is odd and my guess is that when fear comes into play we will see some big down days as soon as the S&P takes out 1250. Circuit breaker type days. Then we will see the vix in the 30’s or 40’s.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=equalizer]For very risky bet on falling oil try the airlines. Small drop in oil will easily double the prices. Cautious investors like Stuart Schweitzer of JPMorgan Private Bank have started buying distressed debt, companies that wont go under like (my guess) GM or WAMU.

stockstrdt: What factors convinced you to go short, technical ones? The VIX is not surging (only in the low 20’s as opposed to midthirties back on black Stearns day) which is typically very bad for bulls. The 50 day EMA and 200EMA last crossed earlier this year and this is also bearish. With the dow and S&P 500 near strong resistance at 20% off peak, we are near crucial junction. We could get slow painful decline aka 2001-2002 or my prediction that 90% odds in pres election years the market will rally from July-Oct. The party in charge is going to sit idly by and watch economy, market just slide down without putting all stops to help their party?

[/quote]

The low vix is what scares me. The market is almost parabolic in its downtrend yet there is no fear. Downtrends like this don’t end until fear comes in.

I believe the lack of fear in such a strong downtrend is odd and my guess is that when fear comes into play we will see some big down days as soon as the S&P takes out 1250. Circuit breaker type days. Then we will see the vix in the 30’s or 40’s.

John

[Author]

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