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JCParticipant
Just thought this was pertinent to this thread…
Notices of default up 24% in county
Analyst says February numbers might be fluke
By Roger Showley, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Friday, March 19, 2010 at 9:11 p.m.Homeowners in San Diego County defaulted at their highest monthly rate in more than a year in February, MDA DataQuick reported Friday.
Defaults totaled 2,166, up 24.4 percent from January’s 1,741, the biggest one-month jump since the figure jumped 121.3 percent from November to December 2008.
Meanwhile, there were 973 foreclosures, down from 986 in January in the sixth month-to-month decline in the past year. The number was down 21 percent from year-ago levels.
More notices of default normally signal spreading distress in the housing market. As owners fall three months or more behind in their monthly payments, lenders usually file this first formal action that often leads to foreclosure. The number spiked a year ago, when lenders were catching up on a backlog of defaults delayed through extended noticing requirements and moratoriums.
DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said the default rise last month might be a fluke.
“You can’t just read too much into a single month,” he said. “There’s been a very irregular (pattern) of notice-of-default filings.”
But LePage said he detected a similar uptick in counties throughout the state.
“The bulk was in the areas hit hardest” by economic and housing distress, he said, and did not reflect problems spreading to higher-priced properties as many analysts have been predicting.
“That’s not the way it shaped up,” LePage said. “It was more of the same.”
In his ZIP code breakdown of defaults in the county, LePage reported high percentage increases from January in several higher-priced neighborhoods. The actual numbers remained relatively low.
For example, Del Mar defaults were up 250 percent, but the increase was only from two to seven defaults; Solana Beach was up 120 percent, from five to 11; La Jolla was up 54.5 percent, from 11 to 17.
Meanwhile, some lower-cost areas continued to exhibit greater distress in absolute numbers. Nestor in the South Bay had 83 default notices, up from 53 in January and the highest of any ZIP code, followed by Spring Valley with 70, up from 44, and Encanto at 58, up from 53. All three had median home prices of $240,000 or less in the past 12 months.
LePage said it is possible that defaults will continue rising, given the high number of delinquencies that have been reported in recent months.
But Dustin Hobbs, spokesman for the California Mortgage Bankers Association, said a new program to speed up short sales — homes sold for less than the outstanding mortgage balance — may forestall many defaults as well as foreclosures.
“No one’s walking around with rose-colored glasses thinking it’s the silver bullet,” Hobbs said. “Certainly, it’ll be useful tool.”
He said the market is still unsettled because of the so-called “shadow inventory” of distressed homes that are delinquent or in default.
“It would be catastrophic if all of a sudden they all went to foreclosure,” Hobbs said. “We would have a huge, downward impact on home values, and no one wants that.”
In another report Friday, HomeGain, a Web site based in Emeryville that lists estimated home valuations, said real estate agents nationally are somewhat more optimistic about the market than a year ago.
Twenty-nine percent of industry professionals responding to a survey said prices are likely to decrease in the next six months, compared with 53 percent expecting a decline a year ago.
California was one of 10 states where more agents think prices will go up than down in the next six months.
The breakdown: 42 percent think prices will be unchanged, 36 percent think they will rise and 22 percent think they will fall.
JCParticipantJust thought this was pertinent to this thread…
Notices of default up 24% in county
Analyst says February numbers might be fluke
By Roger Showley, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Friday, March 19, 2010 at 9:11 p.m.Homeowners in San Diego County defaulted at their highest monthly rate in more than a year in February, MDA DataQuick reported Friday.
Defaults totaled 2,166, up 24.4 percent from January’s 1,741, the biggest one-month jump since the figure jumped 121.3 percent from November to December 2008.
Meanwhile, there were 973 foreclosures, down from 986 in January in the sixth month-to-month decline in the past year. The number was down 21 percent from year-ago levels.
More notices of default normally signal spreading distress in the housing market. As owners fall three months or more behind in their monthly payments, lenders usually file this first formal action that often leads to foreclosure. The number spiked a year ago, when lenders were catching up on a backlog of defaults delayed through extended noticing requirements and moratoriums.
DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said the default rise last month might be a fluke.
“You can’t just read too much into a single month,” he said. “There’s been a very irregular (pattern) of notice-of-default filings.”
But LePage said he detected a similar uptick in counties throughout the state.
“The bulk was in the areas hit hardest” by economic and housing distress, he said, and did not reflect problems spreading to higher-priced properties as many analysts have been predicting.
“That’s not the way it shaped up,” LePage said. “It was more of the same.”
In his ZIP code breakdown of defaults in the county, LePage reported high percentage increases from January in several higher-priced neighborhoods. The actual numbers remained relatively low.
For example, Del Mar defaults were up 250 percent, but the increase was only from two to seven defaults; Solana Beach was up 120 percent, from five to 11; La Jolla was up 54.5 percent, from 11 to 17.
Meanwhile, some lower-cost areas continued to exhibit greater distress in absolute numbers. Nestor in the South Bay had 83 default notices, up from 53 in January and the highest of any ZIP code, followed by Spring Valley with 70, up from 44, and Encanto at 58, up from 53. All three had median home prices of $240,000 or less in the past 12 months.
LePage said it is possible that defaults will continue rising, given the high number of delinquencies that have been reported in recent months.
But Dustin Hobbs, spokesman for the California Mortgage Bankers Association, said a new program to speed up short sales — homes sold for less than the outstanding mortgage balance — may forestall many defaults as well as foreclosures.
“No one’s walking around with rose-colored glasses thinking it’s the silver bullet,” Hobbs said. “Certainly, it’ll be useful tool.”
He said the market is still unsettled because of the so-called “shadow inventory” of distressed homes that are delinquent or in default.
“It would be catastrophic if all of a sudden they all went to foreclosure,” Hobbs said. “We would have a huge, downward impact on home values, and no one wants that.”
In another report Friday, HomeGain, a Web site based in Emeryville that lists estimated home valuations, said real estate agents nationally are somewhat more optimistic about the market than a year ago.
Twenty-nine percent of industry professionals responding to a survey said prices are likely to decrease in the next six months, compared with 53 percent expecting a decline a year ago.
California was one of 10 states where more agents think prices will go up than down in the next six months.
The breakdown: 42 percent think prices will be unchanged, 36 percent think they will rise and 22 percent think they will fall.
JCParticipantJust thought this was pertinent to this thread…
Notices of default up 24% in county
Analyst says February numbers might be fluke
By Roger Showley, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Friday, March 19, 2010 at 9:11 p.m.Homeowners in San Diego County defaulted at their highest monthly rate in more than a year in February, MDA DataQuick reported Friday.
Defaults totaled 2,166, up 24.4 percent from January’s 1,741, the biggest one-month jump since the figure jumped 121.3 percent from November to December 2008.
Meanwhile, there were 973 foreclosures, down from 986 in January in the sixth month-to-month decline in the past year. The number was down 21 percent from year-ago levels.
More notices of default normally signal spreading distress in the housing market. As owners fall three months or more behind in their monthly payments, lenders usually file this first formal action that often leads to foreclosure. The number spiked a year ago, when lenders were catching up on a backlog of defaults delayed through extended noticing requirements and moratoriums.
DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said the default rise last month might be a fluke.
“You can’t just read too much into a single month,” he said. “There’s been a very irregular (pattern) of notice-of-default filings.”
But LePage said he detected a similar uptick in counties throughout the state.
“The bulk was in the areas hit hardest” by economic and housing distress, he said, and did not reflect problems spreading to higher-priced properties as many analysts have been predicting.
“That’s not the way it shaped up,” LePage said. “It was more of the same.”
In his ZIP code breakdown of defaults in the county, LePage reported high percentage increases from January in several higher-priced neighborhoods. The actual numbers remained relatively low.
For example, Del Mar defaults were up 250 percent, but the increase was only from two to seven defaults; Solana Beach was up 120 percent, from five to 11; La Jolla was up 54.5 percent, from 11 to 17.
Meanwhile, some lower-cost areas continued to exhibit greater distress in absolute numbers. Nestor in the South Bay had 83 default notices, up from 53 in January and the highest of any ZIP code, followed by Spring Valley with 70, up from 44, and Encanto at 58, up from 53. All three had median home prices of $240,000 or less in the past 12 months.
LePage said it is possible that defaults will continue rising, given the high number of delinquencies that have been reported in recent months.
But Dustin Hobbs, spokesman for the California Mortgage Bankers Association, said a new program to speed up short sales — homes sold for less than the outstanding mortgage balance — may forestall many defaults as well as foreclosures.
“No one’s walking around with rose-colored glasses thinking it’s the silver bullet,” Hobbs said. “Certainly, it’ll be useful tool.”
He said the market is still unsettled because of the so-called “shadow inventory” of distressed homes that are delinquent or in default.
“It would be catastrophic if all of a sudden they all went to foreclosure,” Hobbs said. “We would have a huge, downward impact on home values, and no one wants that.”
In another report Friday, HomeGain, a Web site based in Emeryville that lists estimated home valuations, said real estate agents nationally are somewhat more optimistic about the market than a year ago.
Twenty-nine percent of industry professionals responding to a survey said prices are likely to decrease in the next six months, compared with 53 percent expecting a decline a year ago.
California was one of 10 states where more agents think prices will go up than down in the next six months.
The breakdown: 42 percent think prices will be unchanged, 36 percent think they will rise and 22 percent think they will fall.
JCParticipantJust thought this was pertinent to this thread…
Notices of default up 24% in county
Analyst says February numbers might be fluke
By Roger Showley, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Friday, March 19, 2010 at 9:11 p.m.Homeowners in San Diego County defaulted at their highest monthly rate in more than a year in February, MDA DataQuick reported Friday.
Defaults totaled 2,166, up 24.4 percent from January’s 1,741, the biggest one-month jump since the figure jumped 121.3 percent from November to December 2008.
Meanwhile, there were 973 foreclosures, down from 986 in January in the sixth month-to-month decline in the past year. The number was down 21 percent from year-ago levels.
More notices of default normally signal spreading distress in the housing market. As owners fall three months or more behind in their monthly payments, lenders usually file this first formal action that often leads to foreclosure. The number spiked a year ago, when lenders were catching up on a backlog of defaults delayed through extended noticing requirements and moratoriums.
DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said the default rise last month might be a fluke.
“You can’t just read too much into a single month,” he said. “There’s been a very irregular (pattern) of notice-of-default filings.”
But LePage said he detected a similar uptick in counties throughout the state.
“The bulk was in the areas hit hardest” by economic and housing distress, he said, and did not reflect problems spreading to higher-priced properties as many analysts have been predicting.
“That’s not the way it shaped up,” LePage said. “It was more of the same.”
In his ZIP code breakdown of defaults in the county, LePage reported high percentage increases from January in several higher-priced neighborhoods. The actual numbers remained relatively low.
For example, Del Mar defaults were up 250 percent, but the increase was only from two to seven defaults; Solana Beach was up 120 percent, from five to 11; La Jolla was up 54.5 percent, from 11 to 17.
Meanwhile, some lower-cost areas continued to exhibit greater distress in absolute numbers. Nestor in the South Bay had 83 default notices, up from 53 in January and the highest of any ZIP code, followed by Spring Valley with 70, up from 44, and Encanto at 58, up from 53. All three had median home prices of $240,000 or less in the past 12 months.
LePage said it is possible that defaults will continue rising, given the high number of delinquencies that have been reported in recent months.
But Dustin Hobbs, spokesman for the California Mortgage Bankers Association, said a new program to speed up short sales — homes sold for less than the outstanding mortgage balance — may forestall many defaults as well as foreclosures.
“No one’s walking around with rose-colored glasses thinking it’s the silver bullet,” Hobbs said. “Certainly, it’ll be useful tool.”
He said the market is still unsettled because of the so-called “shadow inventory” of distressed homes that are delinquent or in default.
“It would be catastrophic if all of a sudden they all went to foreclosure,” Hobbs said. “We would have a huge, downward impact on home values, and no one wants that.”
In another report Friday, HomeGain, a Web site based in Emeryville that lists estimated home valuations, said real estate agents nationally are somewhat more optimistic about the market than a year ago.
Twenty-nine percent of industry professionals responding to a survey said prices are likely to decrease in the next six months, compared with 53 percent expecting a decline a year ago.
California was one of 10 states where more agents think prices will go up than down in the next six months.
The breakdown: 42 percent think prices will be unchanged, 36 percent think they will rise and 22 percent think they will fall.
JCParticipanthttp://www.beaconecon.com/products/Presentations/2010/RoboticsOrlando10.pdf
CHRISTOPHER THORNBERG: DOUBLE DIP IS COMING IN 2011
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Contributed by The Pragmatic Capitalist (Reporter)
Thursday, March 11, 2010 12:05
More stories from this contributorThis story has been viewed 3 times In a recent presentation in Orlando, Christopher Thornberg noted the likelihood of a double dip in 2011. Thornberg famously predicted the real estate bubble, disastrous downturn in California and the high probability of recession in 2008. He is a former economist at UCLA and currently works at Beacon Economics, the firm he founded. I relied heavily on Thornberg’s analysis in helping to side-step the housing debacle and I have found his research to be not only straight forward, but well reasoned.Thornberg says the economic recovery is mostly government induced and could lead to a double dip as the government steps aside and attempts to hand over the baton to the private sector. In the presentation Thornberg noted the continuing concerns:
The bad news: we haven’t completely fixed the problems, instead the economy is being driven by government policy
The worse news: government policy is causing its own set of problems: namely public debt and the potential for inflation
Thornberg says 2010 is likely to be a good year for the economy, but as the stimulus wears off the true colors of the private sector will shine through and result in a double dip. On the bright side, Thornberg notes that export growth is likely to remain strong and businesses are well positioned. Unfortunately, in the long-run, he says the following 7 negatives are likely to outweigh the few positives:Consumer weakness will likely continue
Businesses are a wild card
Housing bounce won’t last
Banks not out of the woods yet
Commercial trouble to continue
Significant chance of a double dip
Higher Rates coming down the pikeJCParticipanthttp://www.beaconecon.com/products/Presentations/2010/RoboticsOrlando10.pdf
CHRISTOPHER THORNBERG: DOUBLE DIP IS COMING IN 2011
|
Contributed by The Pragmatic Capitalist (Reporter)
Thursday, March 11, 2010 12:05
More stories from this contributorThis story has been viewed 3 times In a recent presentation in Orlando, Christopher Thornberg noted the likelihood of a double dip in 2011. Thornberg famously predicted the real estate bubble, disastrous downturn in California and the high probability of recession in 2008. He is a former economist at UCLA and currently works at Beacon Economics, the firm he founded. I relied heavily on Thornberg’s analysis in helping to side-step the housing debacle and I have found his research to be not only straight forward, but well reasoned.Thornberg says the economic recovery is mostly government induced and could lead to a double dip as the government steps aside and attempts to hand over the baton to the private sector. In the presentation Thornberg noted the continuing concerns:
The bad news: we haven’t completely fixed the problems, instead the economy is being driven by government policy
The worse news: government policy is causing its own set of problems: namely public debt and the potential for inflation
Thornberg says 2010 is likely to be a good year for the economy, but as the stimulus wears off the true colors of the private sector will shine through and result in a double dip. On the bright side, Thornberg notes that export growth is likely to remain strong and businesses are well positioned. Unfortunately, in the long-run, he says the following 7 negatives are likely to outweigh the few positives:Consumer weakness will likely continue
Businesses are a wild card
Housing bounce won’t last
Banks not out of the woods yet
Commercial trouble to continue
Significant chance of a double dip
Higher Rates coming down the pikeJCParticipanthttp://www.beaconecon.com/products/Presentations/2010/RoboticsOrlando10.pdf
CHRISTOPHER THORNBERG: DOUBLE DIP IS COMING IN 2011
|
Contributed by The Pragmatic Capitalist (Reporter)
Thursday, March 11, 2010 12:05
More stories from this contributorThis story has been viewed 3 times In a recent presentation in Orlando, Christopher Thornberg noted the likelihood of a double dip in 2011. Thornberg famously predicted the real estate bubble, disastrous downturn in California and the high probability of recession in 2008. He is a former economist at UCLA and currently works at Beacon Economics, the firm he founded. I relied heavily on Thornberg’s analysis in helping to side-step the housing debacle and I have found his research to be not only straight forward, but well reasoned.Thornberg says the economic recovery is mostly government induced and could lead to a double dip as the government steps aside and attempts to hand over the baton to the private sector. In the presentation Thornberg noted the continuing concerns:
The bad news: we haven’t completely fixed the problems, instead the economy is being driven by government policy
The worse news: government policy is causing its own set of problems: namely public debt and the potential for inflation
Thornberg says 2010 is likely to be a good year for the economy, but as the stimulus wears off the true colors of the private sector will shine through and result in a double dip. On the bright side, Thornberg notes that export growth is likely to remain strong and businesses are well positioned. Unfortunately, in the long-run, he says the following 7 negatives are likely to outweigh the few positives:Consumer weakness will likely continue
Businesses are a wild card
Housing bounce won’t last
Banks not out of the woods yet
Commercial trouble to continue
Significant chance of a double dip
Higher Rates coming down the pikeJCParticipanthttp://www.beaconecon.com/products/Presentations/2010/RoboticsOrlando10.pdf
CHRISTOPHER THORNBERG: DOUBLE DIP IS COMING IN 2011
|
Contributed by The Pragmatic Capitalist (Reporter)
Thursday, March 11, 2010 12:05
More stories from this contributorThis story has been viewed 3 times In a recent presentation in Orlando, Christopher Thornberg noted the likelihood of a double dip in 2011. Thornberg famously predicted the real estate bubble, disastrous downturn in California and the high probability of recession in 2008. He is a former economist at UCLA and currently works at Beacon Economics, the firm he founded. I relied heavily on Thornberg’s analysis in helping to side-step the housing debacle and I have found his research to be not only straight forward, but well reasoned.Thornberg says the economic recovery is mostly government induced and could lead to a double dip as the government steps aside and attempts to hand over the baton to the private sector. In the presentation Thornberg noted the continuing concerns:
The bad news: we haven’t completely fixed the problems, instead the economy is being driven by government policy
The worse news: government policy is causing its own set of problems: namely public debt and the potential for inflation
Thornberg says 2010 is likely to be a good year for the economy, but as the stimulus wears off the true colors of the private sector will shine through and result in a double dip. On the bright side, Thornberg notes that export growth is likely to remain strong and businesses are well positioned. Unfortunately, in the long-run, he says the following 7 negatives are likely to outweigh the few positives:Consumer weakness will likely continue
Businesses are a wild card
Housing bounce won’t last
Banks not out of the woods yet
Commercial trouble to continue
Significant chance of a double dip
Higher Rates coming down the pikeJCParticipanthttp://www.beaconecon.com/products/Presentations/2010/RoboticsOrlando10.pdf
CHRISTOPHER THORNBERG: DOUBLE DIP IS COMING IN 2011
|
Contributed by The Pragmatic Capitalist (Reporter)
Thursday, March 11, 2010 12:05
More stories from this contributorThis story has been viewed 3 times In a recent presentation in Orlando, Christopher Thornberg noted the likelihood of a double dip in 2011. Thornberg famously predicted the real estate bubble, disastrous downturn in California and the high probability of recession in 2008. He is a former economist at UCLA and currently works at Beacon Economics, the firm he founded. I relied heavily on Thornberg’s analysis in helping to side-step the housing debacle and I have found his research to be not only straight forward, but well reasoned.Thornberg says the economic recovery is mostly government induced and could lead to a double dip as the government steps aside and attempts to hand over the baton to the private sector. In the presentation Thornberg noted the continuing concerns:
The bad news: we haven’t completely fixed the problems, instead the economy is being driven by government policy
The worse news: government policy is causing its own set of problems: namely public debt and the potential for inflation
Thornberg says 2010 is likely to be a good year for the economy, but as the stimulus wears off the true colors of the private sector will shine through and result in a double dip. On the bright side, Thornberg notes that export growth is likely to remain strong and businesses are well positioned. Unfortunately, in the long-run, he says the following 7 negatives are likely to outweigh the few positives:Consumer weakness will likely continue
Businesses are a wild card
Housing bounce won’t last
Banks not out of the woods yet
Commercial trouble to continue
Significant chance of a double dip
Higher Rates coming down the pikeJCParticipantI appreciate the pass on the grouping, but I honestly like the contributions Arraya and Scaredy make. I often don’t agree with them, but I like that we are all encouraged to post varying viewpoints. I do like that you challenge thsee folks and others, but not so crazy about the name calling.
Ok, climbing off the stupid soap box. What do you think about the possibility of a double-dip? (Apologies if you have already posted on this and I have missed it).
JCParticipantI appreciate the pass on the grouping, but I honestly like the contributions Arraya and Scaredy make. I often don’t agree with them, but I like that we are all encouraged to post varying viewpoints. I do like that you challenge thsee folks and others, but not so crazy about the name calling.
Ok, climbing off the stupid soap box. What do you think about the possibility of a double-dip? (Apologies if you have already posted on this and I have missed it).
JCParticipantI appreciate the pass on the grouping, but I honestly like the contributions Arraya and Scaredy make. I often don’t agree with them, but I like that we are all encouraged to post varying viewpoints. I do like that you challenge thsee folks and others, but not so crazy about the name calling.
Ok, climbing off the stupid soap box. What do you think about the possibility of a double-dip? (Apologies if you have already posted on this and I have missed it).
JCParticipantI appreciate the pass on the grouping, but I honestly like the contributions Arraya and Scaredy make. I often don’t agree with them, but I like that we are all encouraged to post varying viewpoints. I do like that you challenge thsee folks and others, but not so crazy about the name calling.
Ok, climbing off the stupid soap box. What do you think about the possibility of a double-dip? (Apologies if you have already posted on this and I have missed it).
JCParticipantI appreciate the pass on the grouping, but I honestly like the contributions Arraya and Scaredy make. I often don’t agree with them, but I like that we are all encouraged to post varying viewpoints. I do like that you challenge thsee folks and others, but not so crazy about the name calling.
Ok, climbing off the stupid soap box. What do you think about the possibility of a double-dip? (Apologies if you have already posted on this and I have missed it).
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