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September 7, 2010 at 7:26 AM in reply to: No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini #601453September 7, 2010 at 7:26 AM in reply to: No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini #601544investorParticipant
From the same article above. “Dr Roubini said US companies have plenty of cash but are boosting profits by a policy of “slash and burn” on labour costs. “We’ve lost 8.4m jobs and if you include the loss of hours worked it is equivalent to another 3m. We need to generate an extra 450,000 jobs every month for three years to get it back,” he said.
The US non-farm payrolls data released on Friday was better then expected but still showed a net loss of 54,000 jobs.
Dr Roubini said average public debt in the rich countries would rise to 120pc of GDP by 2015 in the rich countries, leaving no scope for a further fiscal stimulus. If they push their luck, they too risk the sort of bond crises seen in Southern Europe this year.
In the US, the fiscal boost has faded, switching to tightening over coming months The lift from the inventory cycle is finished. Capex spending by companies has held up well, but this slowed sharply in July. Housing is already in a double dip. The last support for the US economy is consumption, barely growing at 1pc.
“All we did was kick the can down the road and stole demand from the future,” he said.”
I predict that the dow will go down by 50% within the next 6-9 months as investors realize that the economy is not turning around anytime soon (the housing foreclosure problem has not been solved, it has gotten worse. Commercial real estate has also not been addressed)and that P/E ratios above 20 don’t make sense. I have taken what little I have in the stock market, cashed it out and bought silver eagles with it. I am looking down the road 5-7 years. A recent post had a good video of anthony robbins quoting heavy investors that are his clients that folks might want to watch. Roubibi’s last statement is the most profound for me. I do not trust anyone in DC to think more than the next election cycle (2-3 years) down the road to solve any problem this nation has. We have to have a balanced budget sometime soon and start paying off the national debt (which I realize they want to inflate away, not pay off). Ron paul sounds like a kook only because he is the only one looking down the road 5-15 years and saying the things that need to be done to solve our financial problems.September 7, 2010 at 7:26 AM in reply to: No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini #602091investorParticipantFrom the same article above. “Dr Roubini said US companies have plenty of cash but are boosting profits by a policy of “slash and burn” on labour costs. “We’ve lost 8.4m jobs and if you include the loss of hours worked it is equivalent to another 3m. We need to generate an extra 450,000 jobs every month for three years to get it back,” he said.
The US non-farm payrolls data released on Friday was better then expected but still showed a net loss of 54,000 jobs.
Dr Roubini said average public debt in the rich countries would rise to 120pc of GDP by 2015 in the rich countries, leaving no scope for a further fiscal stimulus. If they push their luck, they too risk the sort of bond crises seen in Southern Europe this year.
In the US, the fiscal boost has faded, switching to tightening over coming months The lift from the inventory cycle is finished. Capex spending by companies has held up well, but this slowed sharply in July. Housing is already in a double dip. The last support for the US economy is consumption, barely growing at 1pc.
“All we did was kick the can down the road and stole demand from the future,” he said.”
I predict that the dow will go down by 50% within the next 6-9 months as investors realize that the economy is not turning around anytime soon (the housing foreclosure problem has not been solved, it has gotten worse. Commercial real estate has also not been addressed)and that P/E ratios above 20 don’t make sense. I have taken what little I have in the stock market, cashed it out and bought silver eagles with it. I am looking down the road 5-7 years. A recent post had a good video of anthony robbins quoting heavy investors that are his clients that folks might want to watch. Roubibi’s last statement is the most profound for me. I do not trust anyone in DC to think more than the next election cycle (2-3 years) down the road to solve any problem this nation has. We have to have a balanced budget sometime soon and start paying off the national debt (which I realize they want to inflate away, not pay off). Ron paul sounds like a kook only because he is the only one looking down the road 5-15 years and saying the things that need to be done to solve our financial problems.September 7, 2010 at 7:26 AM in reply to: No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini #602197investorParticipantFrom the same article above. “Dr Roubini said US companies have plenty of cash but are boosting profits by a policy of “slash and burn” on labour costs. “We’ve lost 8.4m jobs and if you include the loss of hours worked it is equivalent to another 3m. We need to generate an extra 450,000 jobs every month for three years to get it back,” he said.
The US non-farm payrolls data released on Friday was better then expected but still showed a net loss of 54,000 jobs.
Dr Roubini said average public debt in the rich countries would rise to 120pc of GDP by 2015 in the rich countries, leaving no scope for a further fiscal stimulus. If they push their luck, they too risk the sort of bond crises seen in Southern Europe this year.
In the US, the fiscal boost has faded, switching to tightening over coming months The lift from the inventory cycle is finished. Capex spending by companies has held up well, but this slowed sharply in July. Housing is already in a double dip. The last support for the US economy is consumption, barely growing at 1pc.
“All we did was kick the can down the road and stole demand from the future,” he said.”
I predict that the dow will go down by 50% within the next 6-9 months as investors realize that the economy is not turning around anytime soon (the housing foreclosure problem has not been solved, it has gotten worse. Commercial real estate has also not been addressed)and that P/E ratios above 20 don’t make sense. I have taken what little I have in the stock market, cashed it out and bought silver eagles with it. I am looking down the road 5-7 years. A recent post had a good video of anthony robbins quoting heavy investors that are his clients that folks might want to watch. Roubibi’s last statement is the most profound for me. I do not trust anyone in DC to think more than the next election cycle (2-3 years) down the road to solve any problem this nation has. We have to have a balanced budget sometime soon and start paying off the national debt (which I realize they want to inflate away, not pay off). Ron paul sounds like a kook only because he is the only one looking down the road 5-15 years and saying the things that need to be done to solve our financial problems.September 7, 2010 at 7:26 AM in reply to: No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini #602515investorParticipantFrom the same article above. “Dr Roubini said US companies have plenty of cash but are boosting profits by a policy of “slash and burn” on labour costs. “We’ve lost 8.4m jobs and if you include the loss of hours worked it is equivalent to another 3m. We need to generate an extra 450,000 jobs every month for three years to get it back,” he said.
The US non-farm payrolls data released on Friday was better then expected but still showed a net loss of 54,000 jobs.
Dr Roubini said average public debt in the rich countries would rise to 120pc of GDP by 2015 in the rich countries, leaving no scope for a further fiscal stimulus. If they push their luck, they too risk the sort of bond crises seen in Southern Europe this year.
In the US, the fiscal boost has faded, switching to tightening over coming months The lift from the inventory cycle is finished. Capex spending by companies has held up well, but this slowed sharply in July. Housing is already in a double dip. The last support for the US economy is consumption, barely growing at 1pc.
“All we did was kick the can down the road and stole demand from the future,” he said.”
I predict that the dow will go down by 50% within the next 6-9 months as investors realize that the economy is not turning around anytime soon (the housing foreclosure problem has not been solved, it has gotten worse. Commercial real estate has also not been addressed)and that P/E ratios above 20 don’t make sense. I have taken what little I have in the stock market, cashed it out and bought silver eagles with it. I am looking down the road 5-7 years. A recent post had a good video of anthony robbins quoting heavy investors that are his clients that folks might want to watch. Roubibi’s last statement is the most profound for me. I do not trust anyone in DC to think more than the next election cycle (2-3 years) down the road to solve any problem this nation has. We have to have a balanced budget sometime soon and start paying off the national debt (which I realize they want to inflate away, not pay off). Ron paul sounds like a kook only because he is the only one looking down the road 5-15 years and saying the things that need to be done to solve our financial problems.investorParticipant[quote=stockstradr]I bet all of you that one day, in retrospect, the dollar (and of course, dollar-denominated Treasuries) will be seen as the Bigger Bubble that came after the housing bubble.
..because the dollar and dollar-denominated Treasuries ARE already in a bubble now.[/quote]
stockstradr. I agree. With all of the money being printed now, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply inflation is coming. We have to get beyond the current stagnation but when people start to buy again, inflation is here. The book aftershock makes the point that 2 more bubbles are going to pop. first the dollar bubble, built up since 1971 when we went off the gold standard and there was no limit to how much money the fed could print. Once world investors loose faith in the dollar as an investment, which they are going towards now, prices of dollar denominated assets will fall, the fed will print more money to cover the losses, inflation will get worse and we will not be able to pay the interest on the national debt, which will be over 100% of the GDB by that point. Maybe much over. A default on the national debt is then possible or a conversion to another currency, debasing the dollar debt as described in roubini’s new book. When will all of this happen? aftershock estimates that the dollar bubble in roughly 2014, the national debt bubble sometime after that. People don’t want to face the possibility of the US defaulting on the national debt but at some point, the bedt becomes too high to pay off and no-one will buy more of them. Any thoughts anyone else?investorParticipant[quote=stockstradr]I bet all of you that one day, in retrospect, the dollar (and of course, dollar-denominated Treasuries) will be seen as the Bigger Bubble that came after the housing bubble.
..because the dollar and dollar-denominated Treasuries ARE already in a bubble now.[/quote]
stockstradr. I agree. With all of the money being printed now, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply inflation is coming. We have to get beyond the current stagnation but when people start to buy again, inflation is here. The book aftershock makes the point that 2 more bubbles are going to pop. first the dollar bubble, built up since 1971 when we went off the gold standard and there was no limit to how much money the fed could print. Once world investors loose faith in the dollar as an investment, which they are going towards now, prices of dollar denominated assets will fall, the fed will print more money to cover the losses, inflation will get worse and we will not be able to pay the interest on the national debt, which will be over 100% of the GDB by that point. Maybe much over. A default on the national debt is then possible or a conversion to another currency, debasing the dollar debt as described in roubini’s new book. When will all of this happen? aftershock estimates that the dollar bubble in roughly 2014, the national debt bubble sometime after that. People don’t want to face the possibility of the US defaulting on the national debt but at some point, the bedt becomes too high to pay off and no-one will buy more of them. Any thoughts anyone else?investorParticipant[quote=stockstradr]I bet all of you that one day, in retrospect, the dollar (and of course, dollar-denominated Treasuries) will be seen as the Bigger Bubble that came after the housing bubble.
..because the dollar and dollar-denominated Treasuries ARE already in a bubble now.[/quote]
stockstradr. I agree. With all of the money being printed now, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply inflation is coming. We have to get beyond the current stagnation but when people start to buy again, inflation is here. The book aftershock makes the point that 2 more bubbles are going to pop. first the dollar bubble, built up since 1971 when we went off the gold standard and there was no limit to how much money the fed could print. Once world investors loose faith in the dollar as an investment, which they are going towards now, prices of dollar denominated assets will fall, the fed will print more money to cover the losses, inflation will get worse and we will not be able to pay the interest on the national debt, which will be over 100% of the GDB by that point. Maybe much over. A default on the national debt is then possible or a conversion to another currency, debasing the dollar debt as described in roubini’s new book. When will all of this happen? aftershock estimates that the dollar bubble in roughly 2014, the national debt bubble sometime after that. People don’t want to face the possibility of the US defaulting on the national debt but at some point, the bedt becomes too high to pay off and no-one will buy more of them. Any thoughts anyone else?investorParticipant[quote=stockstradr]I bet all of you that one day, in retrospect, the dollar (and of course, dollar-denominated Treasuries) will be seen as the Bigger Bubble that came after the housing bubble.
..because the dollar and dollar-denominated Treasuries ARE already in a bubble now.[/quote]
stockstradr. I agree. With all of the money being printed now, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply inflation is coming. We have to get beyond the current stagnation but when people start to buy again, inflation is here. The book aftershock makes the point that 2 more bubbles are going to pop. first the dollar bubble, built up since 1971 when we went off the gold standard and there was no limit to how much money the fed could print. Once world investors loose faith in the dollar as an investment, which they are going towards now, prices of dollar denominated assets will fall, the fed will print more money to cover the losses, inflation will get worse and we will not be able to pay the interest on the national debt, which will be over 100% of the GDB by that point. Maybe much over. A default on the national debt is then possible or a conversion to another currency, debasing the dollar debt as described in roubini’s new book. When will all of this happen? aftershock estimates that the dollar bubble in roughly 2014, the national debt bubble sometime after that. People don’t want to face the possibility of the US defaulting on the national debt but at some point, the bedt becomes too high to pay off and no-one will buy more of them. Any thoughts anyone else?investorParticipant[quote=stockstradr]I bet all of you that one day, in retrospect, the dollar (and of course, dollar-denominated Treasuries) will be seen as the Bigger Bubble that came after the housing bubble.
..because the dollar and dollar-denominated Treasuries ARE already in a bubble now.[/quote]
stockstradr. I agree. With all of the money being printed now, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply inflation is coming. We have to get beyond the current stagnation but when people start to buy again, inflation is here. The book aftershock makes the point that 2 more bubbles are going to pop. first the dollar bubble, built up since 1971 when we went off the gold standard and there was no limit to how much money the fed could print. Once world investors loose faith in the dollar as an investment, which they are going towards now, prices of dollar denominated assets will fall, the fed will print more money to cover the losses, inflation will get worse and we will not be able to pay the interest on the national debt, which will be over 100% of the GDB by that point. Maybe much over. A default on the national debt is then possible or a conversion to another currency, debasing the dollar debt as described in roubini’s new book. When will all of this happen? aftershock estimates that the dollar bubble in roughly 2014, the national debt bubble sometime after that. People don’t want to face the possibility of the US defaulting on the national debt but at some point, the bedt becomes too high to pay off and no-one will buy more of them. Any thoughts anyone else?investorParticipantArraya, thanks for sharing this video. I take TR at his word and, while he is not a financial expert, he has some high flying clients who are and he is trying to give the average folks a heads up that there may be a major correction coming soon. I also agree that it is. I don’t know why some people want to tear down TR so quickly. TR is not gaining anything by doing this, just feels an obligation to share some powerful info from powerful people. That’s my thoughts.
investorParticipantArraya, thanks for sharing this video. I take TR at his word and, while he is not a financial expert, he has some high flying clients who are and he is trying to give the average folks a heads up that there may be a major correction coming soon. I also agree that it is. I don’t know why some people want to tear down TR so quickly. TR is not gaining anything by doing this, just feels an obligation to share some powerful info from powerful people. That’s my thoughts.
investorParticipantArraya, thanks for sharing this video. I take TR at his word and, while he is not a financial expert, he has some high flying clients who are and he is trying to give the average folks a heads up that there may be a major correction coming soon. I also agree that it is. I don’t know why some people want to tear down TR so quickly. TR is not gaining anything by doing this, just feels an obligation to share some powerful info from powerful people. That’s my thoughts.
investorParticipantArraya, thanks for sharing this video. I take TR at his word and, while he is not a financial expert, he has some high flying clients who are and he is trying to give the average folks a heads up that there may be a major correction coming soon. I also agree that it is. I don’t know why some people want to tear down TR so quickly. TR is not gaining anything by doing this, just feels an obligation to share some powerful info from powerful people. That’s my thoughts.
investorParticipantArraya, thanks for sharing this video. I take TR at his word and, while he is not a financial expert, he has some high flying clients who are and he is trying to give the average folks a heads up that there may be a major correction coming soon. I also agree that it is. I don’t know why some people want to tear down TR so quickly. TR is not gaining anything by doing this, just feels an obligation to share some powerful info from powerful people. That’s my thoughts.
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