[HeadedHome]

Ditto Temeculaguy. It is certainly not a bad deal, and if you are happy with it and can afford it, then go be happy.

Personally I share the concern about the bedroom communities, and believe they will continue to be hit even harder than more metro areas. And even though you are personally not as impacted, remember that your neighbors might be. This is one reason I’m looking more at RB/Carmel Mtn Ranch for our re-relo than Temecula (TG, what’s your take on this?).

As much as I enjoy reading the research and making wise decisions (I’m a geek numbers and research guy at heart), I agree that trying to find the best possible deal is probably not a reasonable objective. The very fact that you’ve done your research and are being conservative financially separates you from a good many. There will always be those who get a better deal, especially if they can afford to wait on the perfect situation. But given current rates and your info, it certainly seems like you found a workable deal in your market. Best of luck!

P.S. Water the lawn!

[HeadedHome]

Ditto Temeculaguy. It is certainly not a bad deal, and if you are happy with it and can afford it, then go be happy.

Personally I share the concern about the bedroom communities, and believe they will continue to be hit even harder than more metro areas. And even though you are personally not as impacted, remember that your neighbors might be. This is one reason I’m looking more at RB/Carmel Mtn Ranch for our re-relo than Temecula (TG, what’s your take on this?).

As much as I enjoy reading the research and making wise decisions (I’m a geek numbers and research guy at heart), I agree that trying to find the best possible deal is probably not a reasonable objective. The very fact that you’ve done your research and are being conservative financially separates you from a good many. There will always be those who get a better deal, especially if they can afford to wait on the perfect situation. But given current rates and your info, it certainly seems like you found a workable deal in your market. Best of luck!

P.S. Water the lawn!

[HeadedHome]

Ditto Temeculaguy. It is certainly not a bad deal, and if you are happy with it and can afford it, then go be happy.

Personally I share the concern about the bedroom communities, and believe they will continue to be hit even harder than more metro areas. And even though you are personally not as impacted, remember that your neighbors might be. This is one reason I’m looking more at RB/Carmel Mtn Ranch for our re-relo than Temecula (TG, what’s your take on this?).

As much as I enjoy reading the research and making wise decisions (I’m a geek numbers and research guy at heart), I agree that trying to find the best possible deal is probably not a reasonable objective. The very fact that you’ve done your research and are being conservative financially separates you from a good many. There will always be those who get a better deal, especially if they can afford to wait on the perfect situation. But given current rates and your info, it certainly seems like you found a workable deal in your market. Best of luck!

P.S. Water the lawn!

[HeadedHome]

Ditto Temeculaguy. It is certainly not a bad deal, and if you are happy with it and can afford it, then go be happy.

Personally I share the concern about the bedroom communities, and believe they will continue to be hit even harder than more metro areas. And even though you are personally not as impacted, remember that your neighbors might be. This is one reason I’m looking more at RB/Carmel Mtn Ranch for our re-relo than Temecula (TG, what’s your take on this?).

As much as I enjoy reading the research and making wise decisions (I’m a geek numbers and research guy at heart), I agree that trying to find the best possible deal is probably not a reasonable objective. The very fact that you’ve done your research and are being conservative financially separates you from a good many. There will always be those who get a better deal, especially if they can afford to wait on the perfect situation. But given current rates and your info, it certainly seems like you found a workable deal in your market. Best of luck!

P.S. Water the lawn!

[HeadedHome]

Ditto Temeculaguy. It is certainly not a bad deal, and if you are happy with it and can afford it, then go be happy.

Personally I share the concern about the bedroom communities, and believe they will continue to be hit even harder than more metro areas. And even though you are personally not as impacted, remember that your neighbors might be. This is one reason I’m looking more at RB/Carmel Mtn Ranch for our re-relo than Temecula (TG, what’s your take on this?).

As much as I enjoy reading the research and making wise decisions (I’m a geek numbers and research guy at heart), I agree that trying to find the best possible deal is probably not a reasonable objective. The very fact that you’ve done your research and are being conservative financially separates you from a good many. There will always be those who get a better deal, especially if they can afford to wait on the perfect situation. But given current rates and your info, it certainly seems like you found a workable deal in your market. Best of luck!

P.S. Water the lawn!

[HeadedHome]

I don’t necessarily agree with 100% of your assumptions, but with so many variables I think your forecasts are fairly reasonable, if one were to assume a linear progression of events. We would also have to assume there would be no significant influence from outside governmental policies and the like. It seems unlikely to me that the government will be able to resist the temptation to become involved in some meaningful (if not necessarily productive) way.

Personally I don’t see it playing out to quite the dire level as predicted (i.e., 4.2 yrs), but I think the whole of your research is certainly more sound than anything I’ve seen on any of the major traditional media networks.

With regard to what and when to share, I think you have to decide in your own mind who you and your brand are. You could be the crazy guy with the most dire, absolute worst case scenarios (who will be quickly forgotten once any perception of light is seen at the end of the tunnel). Personally, however, I think you are well positioned to become more established as a credible, research-based (if bearish) RE resource with staying power in any market. I’d choose the latter, and try and avoid excessively specific and unknowable predictions (you might not like my comments, but I think a lot of people without the inclination to research your whole perspective will hear a number like 4.2 yrs and quickly write you off. I’m sure network economists would write this number and formula off as simplistic, which frankly, it is). So maybe national, but trumpet the real issues which you have identified. I think there are a lot of people who need to hear the truth, and CNBC certainly isn’t providing it. Just my $.02, and only because you asked.

So keep up the research, and I at least will keep that salary of stars flowing.

Rob Dizzle

[HeadedHome]

I don’t necessarily agree with 100% of your assumptions, but with so many variables I think your forecasts are fairly reasonable, if one were to assume a linear progression of events. We would also have to assume there would be no significant influence from outside governmental policies and the like. It seems unlikely to me that the government will be able to resist the temptation to become involved in some meaningful (if not necessarily productive) way.

Personally I don’t see it playing out to quite the dire level as predicted (i.e., 4.2 yrs), but I think the whole of your research is certainly more sound than anything I’ve seen on any of the major traditional media networks.

With regard to what and when to share, I think you have to decide in your own mind who you and your brand are. You could be the crazy guy with the most dire, absolute worst case scenarios (who will be quickly forgotten once any perception of light is seen at the end of the tunnel). Personally, however, I think you are well positioned to become more established as a credible, research-based (if bearish) RE resource with staying power in any market. I’d choose the latter, and try and avoid excessively specific and unknowable predictions (you might not like my comments, but I think a lot of people without the inclination to research your whole perspective will hear a number like 4.2 yrs and quickly write you off. I’m sure network economists would write this number and formula off as simplistic, which frankly, it is). So maybe national, but trumpet the real issues which you have identified. I think there are a lot of people who need to hear the truth, and CNBC certainly isn’t providing it. Just my $.02, and only because you asked.

So keep up the research, and I at least will keep that salary of stars flowing.

Rob Dizzle

[HeadedHome]

I don’t necessarily agree with 100% of your assumptions, but with so many variables I think your forecasts are fairly reasonable, if one were to assume a linear progression of events. We would also have to assume there would be no significant influence from outside governmental policies and the like. It seems unlikely to me that the government will be able to resist the temptation to become involved in some meaningful (if not necessarily productive) way.

Personally I don’t see it playing out to quite the dire level as predicted (i.e., 4.2 yrs), but I think the whole of your research is certainly more sound than anything I’ve seen on any of the major traditional media networks.

With regard to what and when to share, I think you have to decide in your own mind who you and your brand are. You could be the crazy guy with the most dire, absolute worst case scenarios (who will be quickly forgotten once any perception of light is seen at the end of the tunnel). Personally, however, I think you are well positioned to become more established as a credible, research-based (if bearish) RE resource with staying power in any market. I’d choose the latter, and try and avoid excessively specific and unknowable predictions (you might not like my comments, but I think a lot of people without the inclination to research your whole perspective will hear a number like 4.2 yrs and quickly write you off. I’m sure network economists would write this number and formula off as simplistic, which frankly, it is). So maybe national, but trumpet the real issues which you have identified. I think there are a lot of people who need to hear the truth, and CNBC certainly isn’t providing it. Just my $.02, and only because you asked.

So keep up the research, and I at least will keep that salary of stars flowing.

Rob Dizzle

[HeadedHome]

I don’t necessarily agree with 100% of your assumptions, but with so many variables I think your forecasts are fairly reasonable, if one were to assume a linear progression of events. We would also have to assume there would be no significant influence from outside governmental policies and the like. It seems unlikely to me that the government will be able to resist the temptation to become involved in some meaningful (if not necessarily productive) way.

Personally I don’t see it playing out to quite the dire level as predicted (i.e., 4.2 yrs), but I think the whole of your research is certainly more sound than anything I’ve seen on any of the major traditional media networks.

With regard to what and when to share, I think you have to decide in your own mind who you and your brand are. You could be the crazy guy with the most dire, absolute worst case scenarios (who will be quickly forgotten once any perception of light is seen at the end of the tunnel). Personally, however, I think you are well positioned to become more established as a credible, research-based (if bearish) RE resource with staying power in any market. I’d choose the latter, and try and avoid excessively specific and unknowable predictions (you might not like my comments, but I think a lot of people without the inclination to research your whole perspective will hear a number like 4.2 yrs and quickly write you off. I’m sure network economists would write this number and formula off as simplistic, which frankly, it is). So maybe national, but trumpet the real issues which you have identified. I think there are a lot of people who need to hear the truth, and CNBC certainly isn’t providing it. Just my $.02, and only because you asked.

So keep up the research, and I at least will keep that salary of stars flowing.

Rob Dizzle

[HeadedHome]

I don’t necessarily agree with 100% of your assumptions, but with so many variables I think your forecasts are fairly reasonable, if one were to assume a linear progression of events. We would also have to assume there would be no significant influence from outside governmental policies and the like. It seems unlikely to me that the government will be able to resist the temptation to become involved in some meaningful (if not necessarily productive) way.

Personally I don’t see it playing out to quite the dire level as predicted (i.e., 4.2 yrs), but I think the whole of your research is certainly more sound than anything I’ve seen on any of the major traditional media networks.

With regard to what and when to share, I think you have to decide in your own mind who you and your brand are. You could be the crazy guy with the most dire, absolute worst case scenarios (who will be quickly forgotten once any perception of light is seen at the end of the tunnel). Personally, however, I think you are well positioned to become more established as a credible, research-based (if bearish) RE resource with staying power in any market. I’d choose the latter, and try and avoid excessively specific and unknowable predictions (you might not like my comments, but I think a lot of people without the inclination to research your whole perspective will hear a number like 4.2 yrs and quickly write you off. I’m sure network economists would write this number and formula off as simplistic, which frankly, it is). So maybe national, but trumpet the real issues which you have identified. I think there are a lot of people who need to hear the truth, and CNBC certainly isn’t providing it. Just my $.02, and only because you asked.

So keep up the research, and I at least will keep that salary of stars flowing.

Rob Dizzle

[HeadedHome]

Ok, so maybe $.03.

I don’t have a whole lot to add on the quarry stuff. I would defer to TemeculaGuy’s knowledge there. I will say that I definitely agree that DeLuz (just south of Temecula, west of the 15) or La Cresta would be cooler. But I also agree with TemeculaGuy that at least my kids wouldn’t be into having 5 acres but no other kids right next door. But of course that is your call what would work best for you guys. If it does, I personally would prefer either of the mountain areas above, as opposed to wine country. Wine country takes time to get to, and it’s getting worse. Your main concern might not be whether it gets bought up, but how much building goes on between you and the freeway. It used to be a fairly quick trip down Rancho California Rd or 79S, but with traffic it can take 30+ mins just to get to the freeway. 7-9 years from now it could be even uglier. Or gas could be $15 per gallon and we could all be telecommuting. 🙂

With regard to Fallbrook, it does come down to a personal decision. For my family, having at least some diversity was important to us. This does exist in Temecula/Murrieta (and most of SoCal), but was not the case in my experience in Fallbrook. I’m sure as a white guy you’d be perfectly safe. But I do have a couple of minority friends that aren’t too excited about the area. That said, you are completely right in that predators are everywhere, and in almost any community. Look at the Hale Bopp comet, purple nike wearing freaks. Good point.

I’m sure there are lots of good realtors here (TemeculaGuy is very knowledgeable). Personally I would suggest Eric Tomlinson (Century 21, Ortiz-Tomlinson Team). They were very patient and helpful and awesome in follow-up. I called him recently and he even did the leg work to help me locate a realtor here in Charlotte. Anyway, I’m not typically one to be super enthusiastic about service providers, but they were really about the best I’ve encountered anywhere. He’s not pushy, so he’d probably send you even now any info you needed that might help in your decision making. And no, I’m not affiliated with him in any way.

So there you go, I’ve used up my $.03. Hope this is helpful, and with any luck I’ll be back in SoCal by Christmas!

[HeadedHome]

Ok, so maybe $.03.

I don’t have a whole lot to add on the quarry stuff. I would defer to TemeculaGuy’s knowledge there. I will say that I definitely agree that DeLuz (just south of Temecula, west of the 15) or La Cresta would be cooler. But I also agree with TemeculaGuy that at least my kids wouldn’t be into having 5 acres but no other kids right next door. But of course that is your call what would work best for you guys. If it does, I personally would prefer either of the mountain areas above, as opposed to wine country. Wine country takes time to get to, and it’s getting worse. Your main concern might not be whether it gets bought up, but how much building goes on between you and the freeway. It used to be a fairly quick trip down Rancho California Rd or 79S, but with traffic it can take 30+ mins just to get to the freeway. 7-9 years from now it could be even uglier. Or gas could be $15 per gallon and we could all be telecommuting. 🙂

With regard to Fallbrook, it does come down to a personal decision. For my family, having at least some diversity was important to us. This does exist in Temecula/Murrieta (and most of SoCal), but was not the case in my experience in Fallbrook. I’m sure as a white guy you’d be perfectly safe. But I do have a couple of minority friends that aren’t too excited about the area. That said, you are completely right in that predators are everywhere, and in almost any community. Look at the Hale Bopp comet, purple nike wearing freaks. Good point.

I’m sure there are lots of good realtors here (TemeculaGuy is very knowledgeable). Personally I would suggest Eric Tomlinson (Century 21, Ortiz-Tomlinson Team). They were very patient and helpful and awesome in follow-up. I called him recently and he even did the leg work to help me locate a realtor here in Charlotte. Anyway, I’m not typically one to be super enthusiastic about service providers, but they were really about the best I’ve encountered anywhere. He’s not pushy, so he’d probably send you even now any info you needed that might help in your decision making. And no, I’m not affiliated with him in any way.

So there you go, I’ve used up my $.03. Hope this is helpful, and with any luck I’ll be back in SoCal by Christmas!

[HeadedHome]

Ok, so maybe $.03.

I don’t have a whole lot to add on the quarry stuff. I would defer to TemeculaGuy’s knowledge there. I will say that I definitely agree that DeLuz (just south of Temecula, west of the 15) or La Cresta would be cooler. But I also agree with TemeculaGuy that at least my kids wouldn’t be into having 5 acres but no other kids right next door. But of course that is your call what would work best for you guys. If it does, I personally would prefer either of the mountain areas above, as opposed to wine country. Wine country takes time to get to, and it’s getting worse. Your main concern might not be whether it gets bought up, but how much building goes on between you and the freeway. It used to be a fairly quick trip down Rancho California Rd or 79S, but with traffic it can take 30+ mins just to get to the freeway. 7-9 years from now it could be even uglier. Or gas could be $15 per gallon and we could all be telecommuting. 🙂

With regard to Fallbrook, it does come down to a personal decision. For my family, having at least some diversity was important to us. This does exist in Temecula/Murrieta (and most of SoCal), but was not the case in my experience in Fallbrook. I’m sure as a white guy you’d be perfectly safe. But I do have a couple of minority friends that aren’t too excited about the area. That said, you are completely right in that predators are everywhere, and in almost any community. Look at the Hale Bopp comet, purple nike wearing freaks. Good point.

I’m sure there are lots of good realtors here (TemeculaGuy is very knowledgeable). Personally I would suggest Eric Tomlinson (Century 21, Ortiz-Tomlinson Team). They were very patient and helpful and awesome in follow-up. I called him recently and he even did the leg work to help me locate a realtor here in Charlotte. Anyway, I’m not typically one to be super enthusiastic about service providers, but they were really about the best I’ve encountered anywhere. He’s not pushy, so he’d probably send you even now any info you needed that might help in your decision making. And no, I’m not affiliated with him in any way.

So there you go, I’ve used up my $.03. Hope this is helpful, and with any luck I’ll be back in SoCal by Christmas!

[HeadedHome]

Ok, so maybe $.03.

I don’t have a whole lot to add on the quarry stuff. I would defer to TemeculaGuy’s knowledge there. I will say that I definitely agree that DeLuz (just south of Temecula, west of the 15) or La Cresta would be cooler. But I also agree with TemeculaGuy that at least my kids wouldn’t be into having 5 acres but no other kids right next door. But of course that is your call what would work best for you guys. If it does, I personally would prefer either of the mountain areas above, as opposed to wine country. Wine country takes time to get to, and it’s getting worse. Your main concern might not be whether it gets bought up, but how much building goes on between you and the freeway. It used to be a fairly quick trip down Rancho California Rd or 79S, but with traffic it can take 30+ mins just to get to the freeway. 7-9 years from now it could be even uglier. Or gas could be $15 per gallon and we could all be telecommuting. 🙂

With regard to Fallbrook, it does come down to a personal decision. For my family, having at least some diversity was important to us. This does exist in Temecula/Murrieta (and most of SoCal), but was not the case in my experience in Fallbrook. I’m sure as a white guy you’d be perfectly safe. But I do have a couple of minority friends that aren’t too excited about the area. That said, you are completely right in that predators are everywhere, and in almost any community. Look at the Hale Bopp comet, purple nike wearing freaks. Good point.

I’m sure there are lots of good realtors here (TemeculaGuy is very knowledgeable). Personally I would suggest Eric Tomlinson (Century 21, Ortiz-Tomlinson Team). They were very patient and helpful and awesome in follow-up. I called him recently and he even did the leg work to help me locate a realtor here in Charlotte. Anyway, I’m not typically one to be super enthusiastic about service providers, but they were really about the best I’ve encountered anywhere. He’s not pushy, so he’d probably send you even now any info you needed that might help in your decision making. And no, I’m not affiliated with him in any way.

So there you go, I’ve used up my $.03. Hope this is helpful, and with any luck I’ll be back in SoCal by Christmas!

[HeadedHome]

Ok, so maybe $.03.

I don’t have a whole lot to add on the quarry stuff. I would defer to TemeculaGuy’s knowledge there. I will say that I definitely agree that DeLuz (just south of Temecula, west of the 15) or La Cresta would be cooler. But I also agree with TemeculaGuy that at least my kids wouldn’t be into having 5 acres but no other kids right next door. But of course that is your call what would work best for you guys. If it does, I personally would prefer either of the mountain areas above, as opposed to wine country. Wine country takes time to get to, and it’s getting worse. Your main concern might not be whether it gets bought up, but how much building goes on between you and the freeway. It used to be a fairly quick trip down Rancho California Rd or 79S, but with traffic it can take 30+ mins just to get to the freeway. 7-9 years from now it could be even uglier. Or gas could be $15 per gallon and we could all be telecommuting. 🙂

With regard to Fallbrook, it does come down to a personal decision. For my family, having at least some diversity was important to us. This does exist in Temecula/Murrieta (and most of SoCal), but was not the case in my experience in Fallbrook. I’m sure as a white guy you’d be perfectly safe. But I do have a couple of minority friends that aren’t too excited about the area. That said, you are completely right in that predators are everywhere, and in almost any community. Look at the Hale Bopp comet, purple nike wearing freaks. Good point.

I’m sure there are lots of good realtors here (TemeculaGuy is very knowledgeable). Personally I would suggest Eric Tomlinson (Century 21, Ortiz-Tomlinson Team). They were very patient and helpful and awesome in follow-up. I called him recently and he even did the leg work to help me locate a realtor here in Charlotte. Anyway, I’m not typically one to be super enthusiastic about service providers, but they were really about the best I’ve encountered anywhere. He’s not pushy, so he’d probably send you even now any info you needed that might help in your decision making. And no, I’m not affiliated with him in any way.

So there you go, I’ve used up my $.03. Hope this is helpful, and with any luck I’ll be back in SoCal by Christmas!

[Author]

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