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February 7, 2019 at 12:53 PM in reply to: Any peer to peer mortgage sites with decent interest rates? #811714
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ParticipantAverage mortgage rates in 2019 so far are below the 2018 full year average:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-fall-on-worries-about-global-economy-2019-02-07
Could 2019 also be a year where the treasury/mortgage spread goes down?
ParticipantI will buy a little PGE if it dips to the 4’s.
At that point it would be (speculation here) 50% chance of complete loss or ending up below 2 and 50% chance of recovering to 10 or even 20.
The scenerio where it goes low and stays low is a bail in that requires a ton of stock issuance.
I think they offer a giant settlement fund that 90% or more of the victims take BP style, and fight the rest in court, possibly with a lot of success.
ParticipantI sold off all my stocks over 2017 and 2018 to finance one more rental and business working capital and also some taxable munis.
Those munis are now up 10% from my big October 2018 purchase (still have a healthy 6+% yield), so i took some profits, sold 1/3 of the position, and am holding cash at the moment.
I still like taxable munis a lot. The CEF tickers are BBN and GBAB.
ParticipantOCRenter, Bloomberg’s front page has a long article by a China bear. It is the same stuff from 5-10 years ago, which the author admits he was wrong about.
The basic problem for China is the after effect of 1 child. Two generations of that means one kid can have 4 grandparents and two parents to support with no siblings or cousins. The result is a massive savings rate that isn’t allowed to be invested abroad, so negative real interest rates. Despite being “socialist” they don’t have anything like Medicare or Social Security for the elderly.
When you have negative real rates, you get investments that are profitable for the borrower even though it doesn’t produce positive real returns. Some of that investment has positive social returns. But a lot of it is just pollution and cheap exports of pastic Wal Mart junk.
Despite these issues, they still have plenty of growth ahead due to low wages and a skilled workforce.
Northern EU and Japan have had negative real rates (even negative nominal rates) for a while too. However, it is only slightly negative and only on AAA assets. And they can enjoy much higher rates abroad. China’s “financial repression” puts the average Chinese in the position of saving at 3 or 5%, often in risky assets, with 6-10% inflation. Some goes to impressive and needed infrastructure, but a lot goes to white elephant projects and propping up corrupt state owned enterprises. Or real estate speculators. Or hyperpolluting bitcoin farms.
January 20, 2019 at 12:14 PM in reply to: San Diego homeless, mercifully, do not live very long #811658ParticipantFlyer, in the 70s the Supreme Court stopped California from putting a long residency requirement on its extra-generous welfare programs.
Participant“You’re in the middle of a walkable city with good public transit and nightlife, not in some Southern or Midwestern backwater.”
Plenty of Midwest and South cities have large walkable city centers and 200k apartments or even large Victorian rowhouses. Is Bratislava or Ann Arbor more of a “backwater?” St. Paul or Vilnius? Minsk or Madison? Depends on the person!
ParticipantMost of the Midwest and South are just as cheap as these places. Plenty of $600 a month apartments and $120k 4 bedroom houses in good suburban school districts.
Eastern Europe really isn’t that cheap because they had a 50 year period without much construction of private detached housing.
I checked out the small town my great grandparents came from in rural Slovakia. Prices were 50k for dumps and 150-250k for nicer modern places. These areas have declining populations so wouldn’t be good investments. If you want to visit, best to airbnb.
ParticipantFlyer, they are near the Scottish border. I guessed that before looking up the location.
I enjoy watching British TV so I am used to most accents, but the working class Northern and Scottish accents are the hardest. The redhead cook on Downton Abbey has the hardest accent and is somewhat similar.
ParticipantMy prediction last year was 6%.
https://www.piggington.com/downgrading_my_2018_forecast_sd_re_6
Two years ago I said 5-7%
https://www.piggington.com/what_do_you_think_will_happen_san_diego_real_estate_prices_2017
Three years ago I said 11%
https://www.piggington.com/2016_housing_prices_predictions_where_do_you_see_sd_county_sfh
Four years ago I said 15% over 2 years.
https://www.piggington.com/would_you_purchase_or_wait_my_position
ParticipantRising rates? Rates are at an 11-month low.
Wells Fargo now has 4.125% 30-year jumbos.
Sebonic, an online lender I used with no problem, who sent the loan to Chase right afterward, is now 3.75% rate / 3.9% APR for 30-year conforming.
Easy money is back baby!
January 1, 2019 at 1:56 PM in reply to: interest rates in the USA v other advanced economies #811495ParticipantNot a bear market yet by the standard 20% decline measure. We got really close though.
I see stocks and RE both performing in the mid single digits in 2019.
For US stocks, weak profit growth is the negative, low valuations and lack of better alternative investments is the positive.
The Trump tax cut was a large, single, permanent boost to corporate profits. Valuations just don’t reflect that giant boost to profits anymore.
I was a bystander to both the mid-year bull market and subsequent sharp fall as I was 0% in stocks. So this isn’t my motivated thinking.
Regarding consumer confidence, Americans really get a mental boost from low gas prices. Our Cal gas tax obscures this. But in much of the USA, gas is in the $1.70-$2.00 range.
December 31, 2018 at 10:37 AM in reply to: interest rates in the USA v other advanced economies #811489ParticipantRates fall again today below 2.7% for the 10 year. Lowest since January 2018. Market now predicts no fed raises in 2019 and one rate cut in 2020.
We are now 0.4 to 0.55% below the highest rates from May and Oct/early Nov. Time to think about a refi for anyone who purchased then.
ParticipantF is common stock. Preferred stock doesn’t always trade, but if it does it has a different ticker symbol.
December 28, 2018 at 4:43 PM in reply to: Black friday: Review of Google Wifi routers and Samsung frontload washer/dryer #811479ParticipantI used wifi for the first time on my school network circa 2001. Laptops rarely/never had built in wifi then, but they did have large cardbus slots and LAN dongles.
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