[gzz]

Just happened to see a NYC address in a Columbus Circle 1970s tower and decided to check it out.

For $1 million 750 sq ft 1-bedrooms, the rents are about $3500-4000 while the mortgage + tax + insurance are $5500 with 10% down. With the mortgage interest deduction and no rent increases to worry about, buying does make sense, but just barely.

So San Diego rents are still much lower, but our returns to landlords and buying v renting for residents are also better.

It says “dogs allowed”. I like dogs, but image a 280-unit 30 floor building that is mostly studios and 1 bedrooms in dense city area with dogs. Seems noisy and stressful for both the dogs and residents.

By contrast, here’s a large SD downtown building, Discovery at Cortez Hill. It is mostly 2/2s around 1200sf and has a rooftop poll and doorman. The common 2/2s rent for about $3000, but cost about $740,000, and have lower property taxes and similar HOA.

[gzz]

I can see why it is so much, right off the 5 and next to Del Mar and UCSD.

Still, the rent per sq foot is 50% more than I rent my OB condo with a full ocean view and 1 block walk from the beach.

I can’t complain about the price appreciation here, but rent growth has made us go from one of the more expensive parts of San Diego around 2005 to basically in line with inner suburbs and parts of SD with lower rated schools (OB Elementary is a 9/10 and the 10/10 Silvergate is walking distance too.)

I’d like to see Sports Arena, the old postal complex, and Qualcomm stadium all become big tech campuses. Rent growth for us “Southerner” landlords along the 8!

[gzz]

Unless you have awful credit, go refi immediately. You are paying way too much.

I am sure HLS here can give you good advice even if your credit is bad.

If rates drop further, refi yet again!

[gzz]

School “quality” has very little effect on intellectual outcomes for children. The biggest effect will be on the child’s likely peer group.

The last two years we’ve even been able to identify more than 100 genes associated with “educational attainment.”

There were some identical triplets adopted by different families in NY suburbs in the 1970s, one rich one middle class one working class. They all ended up at the same college. Nature >>> nurture.

[gzz]

In my defense, I also have been plugging build america bond funds, BBN and GBAB. They’ve gone up 15-20% since Fall 2018, plus paid their fat 6.5% monthly dividends the whole time.

I’d call them a hold rather than a buy after such a run-up.

I don’t play with puts since I can handle the downside of short sales, and also option premium kills so much of the gains. Plus option bid-ask spreads are huge compared to stocks.

[gzz]

Up 15% since I first shorted.

This is why I start short positions gingerly!

Longer than I can stay solvent? Sometimes, but not with the cash burn rates of Uber and Snap.

Uber just went back to the “hard/impossible to short” list, so a lot of people see this as a no-brainer short. I believe Uber has lost more money than any startup in history at about $9-10 billion thus far.

[gzz]

Flu, I’ve heard making a claim on homeowners policy raises your rates a ton for a long time, so don’t do it unless it is a major issue.

[gzz]

I believe in 6 months the market will be about 4% higher. So your $1.2m house will be $48k more expensive.

If you want to buy in a “cookie cutter” area like downtown or the suburbs, then I’d say buy ASAP.

If you are looking somewhere like La Jolla, Point Loma etc where almost every house is unique, I’d say start looking now but you might need to wait a while to find exactly what you want. But when you find it, make your offer aggressively.

Even 3 years ago the $1.2 mil range places often sat on the market for a few months. Now they are moving about as fast as the lower end.

In my 92107 zip, we had 14 May 2019 sales in the $1m+ range and there are 30 listings. This 2 month supply in the high end is pretty tight.

[gzz]

Uber can now be easily shorted.

Their quarterly report shows weak rideshare revenue growth and their largest loss from operations ever.

Good enough for me to short.

The only bright spot I saw was Uber Eats, but it is still small and lots of competition.

Loss from operations just in Q1 was a record 1.03B. Total losses since founding of 8.87B.

I do like the company, but the stock at $40 per share and $67 bil market cap seems crazy to me.

I shorted today half of what would be the largest position I am comfortable with. Will add to the position if it hits $44.

[gzz]

Update: new figures are listed 2nd.

USA 2.86 2.18
Canada 2.06 1.55
Germany 0.25 -0.18
UK 1.26 0.90
France 0.73 0.23
Spain 1.40 0.76
Holland 0.41 0.01
Switzerland -0.24 -0.49
Japan 0.02 -0.09
Australia 2.44 1.48
New Zealand 2.45 1.70
Hong Kong 2.03 1.37
South Korea 2.00 1.74

Seems to be that loaning money to high income California residents with 30% or more down payments at 3% is a great deal. Let’s go 3% 30 year mortgages!

The Swiss yield curve by the way bottoms out at the 2 to 4 year range, where interest rates are below -0.8%.

The Swiss 50-year rate is 0.153%, meaning whoever gets your bond when you’re dead in 2069 will have earned less than 8% in compounded interest over those 50 years.

[gzz]

A retirement to a condo inside a mall sounds awful.

I’d prefer being Scaredy’s tenant in his doublewide Gulfstream
trailer. Shopping can be covered by Amazon.

[gzz]

Scaredy, some Rosemary Clooney and honky tonk piano just for you:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lrUYcmdjPDw

[gzz]

I know a couple that just moved into the non-assisted living part of La Jolla Sands and love it. it sure is expensive. Maybe living in Mexico with a full time live in nurse for $10k in salary and 5k a year in rent would be cheaper for many people.

[gzz]

There’s definitely a surge of transactions in 92107. 26 sales between 3/16 and 4/15, currently inventory is 44, so a blazing hot 1.7 month supply.

[gzz]

My house and office I have had time of use for years. There are no dramatic differences.

Last summer it was hot in the office and the AC wasn’t turning on, but at random.

Turned out it was a smart thermostat turning off on super peak hours.

They never asked me to consent to this either. Wasted an hour of my time figuring out the problem.

[Author]

Posts